Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[1900hurricane]

Looking out into the medium range, it looks like the development of a slow moving southern stream trough may be hinted at, which would be excellent news for those looking for rainfall. Still a long way out, but EWX is already beginning to sniff it out.

 

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...
WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS INTACT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE EXPECT A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO ANTICIPATED...BUT WE DO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
A LOW-LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

 

CPC forecasts for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods also look encouraging. Could it be?

[Ed Lizard]

HGX more realistic in their assessment.

 

WEAK WESTERN 5H RIDGING TO BUILD IN BEHIND TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.  THIS WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND MOSTLY CLEAR...
WARM AND DRY. MID TO LOWER WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL PUSH THE
AREAWIDE MERCURY READINGS WELL INTO THE AVERAGE MID TO UPPER 80S
(MAYBE LOW 90S OUT WEST)...LOWER 80S ALONG COAST. WINDS WILL BACK
MORE ONSHORE BY MID-SUNDAY AND THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD REGULATE
AFTERNOON READINGS TO THE AVERAGE LOW TO MID 80S.

 

THE MAIN STORY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE...THE LACK OF REGIONAL RAINFALL. THE
MEDIUM RANGE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA HAS HAD THE DRIEST
DECEMBER THROUGH APRIL PERIOD ON RECORD WITH NO NEAR TERM RELIEF.
UPPER RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY FROM THE
APPROACH OF A LARGE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REACHES
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SOUTHWESTERLY DISTURBANCES OR JUST LOWER
LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITIES OF MORE
AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION. AGAIN... THE PROG SOUNDINGS FOR THAT PERIOD
ARE ALL CAPPED AND DRY WITHIN THE MID-LAYERS SO CURRENT LONG RANGE
RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AT BEST. 31

 

 

[Srain]

The global guidance is suggesting another potent trough developing out West. There is some indication that an EPAC Tropical disturbance may develop and slowly head N and E around the same time that a robust MJO pulse pushes E across the Pacific and the sub tropical jet becomes active. If such a solution were to verify, we could see some rainfall enhancement as deep tropical moisture from the Pacific is pulled NE into Texas as the trough slowly advances our way.

[Ed Lizard]

El Niño will save us. When cold season returns in September or October. I don't recall 2009 as being a really wet Summer.

The fires will be here before the warm ENSO starts enhancing the cool season STJ and rainfall.


0.27 inches for all of June, 2009 at IAH (IMBY)... From June 12 until the end of the month, the daily high at IAH was at least 97ºF, with several days over 100ºF. Yes, the trees will die.

September 2009 had almost 5 inches of rain, but that was getting into the cool season... Heat had broken early that month, looks like September 2009 max temp was only 94ºF.


So there is an end in sight, just not in time to save the trees or Summer.

[Srain]

The overnight guidance continues to offer hope that the dry pattern may break late next week with a deep Western trough and possibly a cut off meandering upper low as well as an EPAC tropical disturbance moving N just W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. the GFS is suggesting deep tropical moisture streaming N from the Bay of Campeche as well from the Pacific and the chance of another severe weather episode across the Plains as all the ingredients combine beginning next Thursday and extending into the weekend.

 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...CURRENTLY N-NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS OBSERVED BY
SHIP A8NQ6 NEAR 14.5N95W. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NE
MEXICO...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING
AND TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S.
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND END BY LATE SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT
DRAINAGE FLOW FROM LAND...ALLOWING THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS
TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 14 FEET.

 

...DISCUSSION...                                      

A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
08N108W LIES WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR IT WILL BE LIFTED BY THE VERTICAL
MOTION INDUCED BY THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SYSTEM. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH VORTICITY INDUCED BY THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT AROUND MID WEEK...CAUSING THE SYSTEM
TO DEEPEN.

 

[Ed Lizard]

Hour 192, 5 of 20 0Z GEFS members show a 1004 mb or below low of the SW coast of Mexico, that isn't bad.  Not a single one shows a trough deep enough to pull any in the general direction of Texas, and most show the trough axis well East of the possibly perturbed region of the Pacific.

 

OTOH, new 12Z op GFS does show *some* of the mid level moisture getting pulled towards Texas by hour 192, maybe just in time for trough passage.  And manly rains.  I suspect too manly, 3-4 inches in the Northern part of the HGX CWA.

 

Be nice if it verified.  No obvious vort on GFS 500 mb fields, but a localized warm spot 850 mb and 500 mb, could be convective feedback related.  And 8 days away.

 

But the almost 2 inches IMBY would be hyper-mega sweet.

 

Edit

 

Looked at wrong time, at hour 144, closer to half the perturbations on the 12Z show it, so SETX weather, after complete4 boredom for 3 years excluding ice storms more annoying than fun, since my boss expected me to drive to work, maybe finally, a happy moment.

 

Only bad news, hour 180 and 192 soundings look more like Summer than Spring, high PW (near 2 inches, impressive for mid May) but very weak lapse rates and winds below 25 knots below 500 mb, so skinny 500J/Kg CAPE really won't get the job done.

 

But at this point, I'll substitute beneficial rains for FUNderstorms.

[Srain]

Morning update from Jeff regarding the ongoing drought across Texas and what we may see in the months ahead:

 

Drought conditions worsen across the state!

 

A prolonged period of dry weather has resulted in worsening drought conditions after some slight improvement in March. The current dryness continues the multi-year drought that has gripped Texas since late 2008.

 

The January 1 to April 30^th statewide average rainfall was only 2.17 inches which is 2.50 inches below normal and the start of 2014 is the 6^th driest statewide rainfall recorded since 1895. San Angelo, TX has recorded only .50 of an inch of rainfall in 2014!

 

Drought Monitor:

The drought monitor as of April 29^th, indicates severe to exception drought conditions across nearly all of central into NW TX and most of the panhandle. D4 conditions, or exceptional drought, has risen from 13% of the state to 18% of the state in the last week. Currently 90% of the state is in some form of drought up from 86% last week and 80% three months ago. Across SE TX moderate drought conditions are found from Lake Livingston south and westward to The Woodlands and also across southern Fort Bend, Brazoria, Wharton, and Matagorda Counties. Severe drought conditions are found over Jackson and Victoria Counties. The region roughly along I-10 from Sealy to Houston to Liberty is abnormally dry.

 

Rainfall:

Rainfall has been running below normal since late November 2013 and April 2014 was extremely dry across the region and much of the state. The coastal counties have experience rainfall of 25% of normal for the last 5 months with much of the area seeing rainfall of 30-50% of normal. To put it into perspective on how dry it has been, the current dry period is compared to the horrible drought year of (2010-2011) below for the coastal climate sites. The following compares the December 2013-April 2014 period with that of December 2010-April 2011.

 

Galveston: 5.48 in (driest period ever recorded) 9.48 inches in 2010-2011, 11^th driest on record. Note records go back to 1871 for Galveston.

Freeport: 5.43 in (driest period ever recorded) 7.61 inches in 2010-2011, 7^th driest on record

Palacios: 3.90 in (driest period ever recorded) 6.68 inches in 2010-2011, 10^th driest on record. Palacios recorded .01 of an inch of rainfall in April

Houston Hobby: 7.33 in (second driest period ever recorded) 11.06 inches in 2010-2011, 11^th driest on record. Hobby Airport recorded a “trace” of rainfall in April

 

The following rainfall departures across the area from December 1, 2013 to April 30, 2014:

Anahuac: -6.46

Angleton: -12.78 (total rainfall is 4.38 inches)

Bay City: -9.61

Baytown: -6.58

Bellville: -6.26

Cleveland: -9.90

College Station: -9.37

Columbus: -5.95

Edna: -8.26

El Campo: -8.47

Freeport: -10.86

Galveston: -10.88

BUSH IAH: -8.02

Houston Hobby: -10.23

Huntsville: -7.39

Liberty: -7.98

Livingston: -10.66

Palacios: -10.20

Sugar Land: -8.82

Victoria: -5.77 (Jan 1 to April 30) since 10-1-13: -10.27

 

Only three first or second order climate locations have recorded 10.0 or greater inches of rainfall in the last 5 months and none have recorded 15.0 inches.

 

Across North TX:

 

Waco has recorded its 2^nd driest Jan 1 to April 30 period ever with a total rainfall of only 3.39 inches. The driest Jan 1-April 30 period was in 1943 with 3.37 inches of rainfall…so the record driest still stands by only .02 of an inch. Note records go back to 1902.

 

Dallas has recorded its 3^rd driest Jan 1 to April 30 period ever with 3.93 inches of rainfall. The driest Jan 1 to April 30 was in 1909 with 2.27 inches of rainfall. Note records go back to 1899.

 

Wildfire Conditions:

KBDI values which range on a scale from 0 (saturated) to 800 (no moisture to 8 inches deep) are averaging 300-400 across much of the region. Jackson County is showing values of 500-600 with a few locations showing 600-700 in the northwest part of Jackson County. Portions of western Brazoria County and southern Montgomery County are also showing higher values than the rest of the region. Up until the last few weeks wildfire activity had been slow as enough rainfall had fallen to keep fine fuels green and moist. However recent very dry air masses and overall lack of rainfall combined with warming temperatures have resulted in a significant decline in fine fuels in the last two weeks making wildfire ignition much easier compared to previous weeks. Large fuels and canopy fuels remain in good condition, but ladder fuels are starting to show signs of drying and without significant rainfall soon ladder fuels will become increasingly dry increasing the potential for larger and hot wildland fires. 100hr fuels across much of the region are classified at critically dry while 10hr fuels are running with as little as 2%-5% moisture. Conditions are even worse across central and west TX where the potential for fast moving wind driven wildfires is extreme. Lack of rainfall in this areas has resulted in little to no spring green-up.

 

Currently 86 TX counties have burn bans in place…all are west of I-35. In the last 7 days 67 fires have burned over 16,000 acres across TX.

 

Water Supply and Lake Levels:

The colder than average winter and spring helped to mitigate the consequences of the dryness, but that is changing now that temperatures are warming and evaporation rates increasing. Lake levels across SE TX are doing well, but are below average for the time of year. It is not good going into the warm season with lakes below conservation levels. Conditions are central, west, and north TX are much more dire. In fact several lakes in north TX fell to record low levels in April which tends to be the wetter time of year for this part of the state. The multi-year drought conditions continue to have significant impacts on lake levels and water supply.

 

The current total state storage is 24,538,797 acre feet or 64% of normal. This is down .7% in the last month and 2% lower than this same time in 2013 which is about 473,000 acre feet lower than 2013. Lake levels east of I-35 are averaging in the 80-100% of capacity level while lakes across west TX are generally averaging 0-10% of capacity. The combined storage for rivers and storage reservoirs that drain into SE TX are listed below:

 

Lower Brazos River Basin: 76%

Upper Brazos River Basin: 47%

Upper Colorado River Basin: 11%

Lower Colorado River Basin: 41%

Lavaca River Basin: 85%

Guadalupe River Basin: 81%

Upper Trinity River Basin: 67%

Lower Trinity River Basin: 100%

San Jacinto River Basin: 98%

Nueces River Basin: 47%

 

Lake Level Departures and (Percent of Capacity):

 

Lake Buchanan: -30.03 (38%)

Lake Conroe: -.62 (97%)

Lake Houston: 0.00 (100%)

EV Spence: -72.58 (2.3%)

Falcon: -27.72 (33%)

Lake Livingston: +.14 (100%)

OC Fisher: -59.12 (0.6%)

Sam Rayburn: -1.97 (92%)

Lake Somerville: -2.73 (81%)

Lake Texana: -3.86 (78%)

Lake Travis: -55.37 (34%)

Toledo Bend: -1.45 (94%)

Choke Canyon: -24.41 (31%)

 

North Texas Record Low Lake Levels:

 

Lake Granbury: set a new record low of 682.48 on April 20. Previous record was 685.28 in Aug 1978

Lake Nocona: set a new record low of 815.62 on April 20. Previous record was 816.95 in Oct 2000.

Lake Ray Hubbard: set a new record low of 427.90 on April 3. Previous record was 429.72 in Oct 2000

 

Highland Lakes:

Inflow into the Highland Lakes (Travis and Buchanan) in March was 8,102 acre feet or only 9% of normal. Inflows from Jan 1 to March 30 were lower than in 2011 (51,275 acre feet in 2011 vs. 29,860 acre feet in 2014). The current combined storage of both Lakes Travis and Buchanan is 36%. Without significant rainfall the forecast is for a continued decline in the storage levels reaching (622-618 ft) by July 1 and (617-611 ft) by October 1 for Lake Travis. The historical low for Lake Travis is 614.18 ft established on 8-14-1951. The combined storage record low is 31% established on 9-9-1952 and based on current projections this level could be reached by the middle of this summer.  

 

Groundwater:

There are 17 key groundwater aquifer locations across the state. Eight locations saw an increase in ground water in March and 9 locations saw a decrease including the Edwards Aquifer (J-17) well. The level of the Edwards Aquifer is currently .79 of a foot above stage 3 critical management level in that segment of the system. The current level is .51 of a foot lower than last month and 6.8 ft lower than this time last year.

 

Water Restrictions:

A total of 30 municipalities across the state have less than 90 days of remaining water supply and 7 have less than 45 days. The City of Wichita Falls, TX has only 25% of its conservation volume. The reservoirs that supply San Angelo, TX with water have only 8% capacity remaining. The City of Dallas current water storage is at 68% down 12% from one year ago. The City of Fort Worth water storage is at 70% down 7.8% from last year. Flows on the Guadalupe River at Victoria have been falling dangerously close to the 4.2 ft (150cfs) for the city to be able to withdrawal water. Flows have fallen to 4.6 ft (296 cfs) in the last few weeks.

 

A total of 768 jurisdictions have mandatory water restrictions in place with an additional 389 with voluntary restrictions in place. A total of 1,157 systems are currently affect out of 4, 639 systems statewide or about 1/4^th of the state’s systems are currently impacted.

 

Agriculture:

Moist has been severely lacking from S TX into the coastal bend, along the coastal plains, and into much of western and central/north TX. Spring crops had just enough moisture to germinate, but have since been hit with the very dry April. Crops are showing signs of wilting and is some locations are only about ½ of expect heights for this time of year. Stock ponds and grazing grasses are in fair to poor shape and without rainfall soon, water supplies will be depleted in June in many cattle ponds. Without widespread rainfall soon, significant crop losses will be likely. Soil moisture losses have been the greatest in and around Victoria where deficits are averaging between -80mm and -100mm

 

Short Term Outlook:

Strong upper level storm system appears to still be on track to affect the state starting as early as Thursday and lasting into the weekend. Rain chances continue to look fairly decent with this system, but the morning GFS run has backed down on amounts compared to yesterday. This looks like the best opportunity for rainfall for SE TX and much of the state in the last 2-3 months.

 

Summer Outlook:

Besides some sort of tropical system there appears little to break the expanding drought or offer significant rainfall. May and June tend to be some of the wettest months across the state as slow moving or stalled fronts interact with increasing Gulf of Mexico moisture. Temperatures are only going to warm increasing the evaporation rates and helping to dry the ground which in turn warm the air temperature even more. This cycle is very hard to break once it is established and typically in the summer months when weather patterns are weak only a tropical system is capable of interrupting such strong feedback.

 

Far Range Outlook:

There is “hope” on the horizon! A significant warming is underway across the central Pacific Ocean with deep water warm anomalies showing as much as 2-5 degrees of above average warmth in the central Pacific. It appears that ENSO warm phase (El Nino) is becoming increasing possible by the middle of this summer. While ENSO warm indices have stopped increasing in the past few weeks, the passage of a well defined Kelvin wave should help to resume the increases. Other factors such as the strongly slope thermocline under the sea surface also support continued warm of the sea surface/sub sea-surface. While this will be of little help through the summer of 2014, El Nino events tend to support a wet and cold fall/winter/spring in TX. With the onset of El Nino conditions in mid summer and possibly peaking in the fall of 2014 a transition to a wetter pattern is possible in TX post summer 2014. While El Nino usually supports above average rainfall in the state during the cold season, back ground global patterns remain in place that favor a drier than average southern plains, but this is the most promising large scale change that could affect TX since the El Nino of 2009-2010.

[PelicanGuy]

Nice and warm across the New Orleans region, with cool, pleasant nights. The trend is expected to continue all this week.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF
LOUISIANA. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS...AND A COLD FRONT INTO NEW
MEXICO. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING. A FEW SITES
STARTING TO HINT AT SOME RADIATION FOG...BUT RATHER ISOLATED AT
THIS TIME. AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AT 3 AM.

 

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY OR
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING RADIATION FOG WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. AS SURFACE HIGH REACHES
THE EASTERN GULF AND THE PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE
FURTHER EASTWARD...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST A DECENT CUMULUS
FIELD DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. NO RAIN MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE WAS
USED FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

 

.LONG TERM...

GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN NOT CARRYING A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WELL TO THE EAST...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST...SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES UPPER TROF
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH WAVE MOVES
INTO THE RIDGE. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE LIKELY RANGE FOR
NOW. INTRODUCING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL WARM TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

 

MARINE...

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND BECOME CENTERED FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST DURING THE MID TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. MOSTLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS MOSTLY LESS THAN 2 FEET. A SERIES OF
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING OUT OF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSE
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO RISE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND 15 TO 20
KNOTS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING THE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS.

[PelicanGuy]

2 pm temps:

 

NEW ORLEANS REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
200 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2014

 

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
N.O. AUDUBON N/A 86 56 35 MISG N/A
N.O. INTL ARPT SUNNY 84 51 31 S10 30.04F
N.O. LAKEFRONT SUNNY 81 56 42 N6 30.05F
N.O. DOWNTOWN* N/A 84 48 28 SW5 30.06F
SLIDELL SUNNY 82 46 28 MISG 30.04F
BATON ROUGE SUNNY 85 55 35 S10 30.03F
BOOTHVILLE SUNNY 77 56 48 SW8 30.07F
BELLE CHASSE SUNNY 82 52 35 VRB6 30.04F
BOGALUSA* N/A 85 48 27 SW6 30.05F
GALLIANO* CLEAR 83 54 37 SW8 30.07S
NEW ROADS* N/A 82 53 36 SW6G13 30.03F
GONZALES* N/A 82 51 33 S10G18 30.04F
HAMMOND* SUNNY 86 43 22 S6 30.05F
HOUMA* SUNNY 82 45 26 S9 30.07S
PORT FOURCHON* CLEAR 77 61 57 W8 30.09F

 

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MCCOMB SUNNY 84 49 29 SW10G16 30.03F
GULFPORT SUNNY 84 52 33 S9 30.04F
BILOXI NOT AVBL
PASCAGOULA SUNNY 83 55 38 SW8 30.04F
STENNIS ARPT* SUNNY 84 37 18 SW9 30.04F

[Srain]

If only...The most rain I've seen was that early March Ice Storm that dropped almost inch of freezing rain IMY. Here is hoping that trough is a little slower and the frontal boundary stalls near the Coastal Plain.

[Ed Lizard]

If only...The most rain I've seen was that early March Ice Storm that dropped almost inch of freezing rain IMY. Here is hoping that trough is a little slower and the frontal boundary stalls near the Coastal Plain.

 

The drier model, even if the GFS, has verified every time in 2014 in SETX, Euro approaching GFS prediction of futility of rain.  Generally half an inch.  HPC finally catching up, under .75 inches 5 day totals for all of Houston.

[Srain]

Morning Update from Jeff:

 

Powerful upper level storm system to affect TX Thursday-Saturday.

 

Current upper level trough over the western US will slowly progress into the plains today into Thursday. Southerly winds will begin rich moisture advection today with dewpoints and PWS increasing. Eastern Pacific tropical system (90E) located south of the Mexican coast this morning is already starting to spread mid and high level moisture northward into MX and as far north as southern TX.

 

Factors appear to be attempting to come together for a period of active weather from Thursday afternoon/evening into early Saturday. Trough position on Thursday will be close enough to SE TX to support enough cooling in the mid level to help erode the capping inversion. Dryline feature across central TX should help to develop isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms by the late afternoon hours which will then move eastward toward the area. Unfavorable jet structure will likely limit the amount of development and the eastward movement of any storms. This thinking place our western counties with the greatest rain chances on Thursday.

 

Friday appears to be setting up to be the day when ingredients peak for thunderstorms and possibly heavy rainfall. A potent short wave rotates through the base of the large scale trough early Friday and will likely develop a band or cluster of thunderstorms over SW TX into WC TX. Downstream air mass over C and SE TX will heat throughout the day and moisten with forecasted PWS values of 1.75 to 2.0 inches and instability of 2500 to 3000 J/kg. Upper level sub-tropical jet begins to split over the area by the afternoon hours yielding greater lift and mid level capping should be a non-factor for the first time in months. Incoming short wave and potential convective cluster/MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) should be able to maintain convection into the area Friday afternoon/evening. Global models have not been handling the placement of the highest QPF (rainfall) with this event well at all and continue to be all over the place. The GFS is drier than the ECMWF mainly due to its placement of the greatest lift and failure to develop a surface trough over the area. While I would like to side with the wetter ECMWF, we are in a drought, and thus far this year the drier model has verified the best. With that said, the potential is certainly there for some heavy rainfall Friday afternoon and evening, but with the mesoscale features taking over it is nearly impossible to predict where the greatest rains will fall. A severe threat will be possible also with the storms that develop on Friday.

 

Looks like a break in the rainfall potential for the weekend, although could still see some lingering activity Saturday morning. There is some potential for some additional development late in the weekend or early next week, but this is fairly uncertain.

 

[Ed Lizard]

Even the 'wet' Euro is now only about half an inch, and as highly trained and well paid Dr. Jeff has noted, the drier model has verified best every time in 2014.  Bet your bottom dollar, if the Canadian. JMA, NAM, Korean model or DGEX is driest for SETX, it will be the model that verifies.  Even WPC is slowly coming to its senses.  I knew a week ago when people were posting 2 or 3 inch QPF maps, their hopes would be crushed under the iron boot of reality.

 

Morning Update from Jeff:

 

Powerful upper level storm system to affect TX Thursday-Saturday.

 

Current upper level trough over the western US will slowly progress into the plains today into Thursday. Southerly winds will begin rich moisture advection today with dewpoints and PWS increasing. Eastern Pacific tropical system (90E) located south of the Mexican coast this morning is already starting to spread mid and high level moisture northward into MX and as far north as southern TX.

 

Factors appear to be attempting to come together for a period of active weather from Thursday afternoon/evening into early Saturday. Trough position on Thursday will be close enough to SE TX to support enough cooling in the mid level to help erode the capping inversion. Dryline feature across central TX should help to develop isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms by the late afternoon hours which will then move eastward toward the area. Unfavorable jet structure will likely limit the amount of development and the eastward movement of any storms. This thinking place our western counties with the greatest rain chances on Thursday.

 

Friday appears to be setting up to be the day when ingredients peak for thunderstorms and possibly heavy rainfall. A potent short wave rotates through the base of the large scale trough early Friday and will likely develop a band or cluster of thunderstorms over SW TX into WC TX. Downstream air mass over C and SE TX will heat throughout the day and moisten with forecasted PWS values of 1.75 to 2.0 inches and instability of 2500 to 3000 J/kg. Upper level sub-tropical jet begins to split over the area by the afternoon hours yielding greater lift and mid level capping should be a non-factor for the first time in months. Incoming short wave and potential convective cluster/MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) should be able to maintain convection into the area Friday afternoon/evening. Global models have not been handling the placement of the highest QPF (rainfall) with this event well at all and continue to be all over the place. The GFS is drier than the ECMWF mainly due to its placement of the greatest lift and failure to develop a surface trough over the area. While I would like to side with the wetter ECMWF, we are in a drought, and thus far this year the drier model has verified the best. With that said, the potential is certainly there for some heavy rainfall Friday afternoon and evening, but with the mesoscale features taking over it is nearly impossible to predict where the greatest rains will fall. A severe threat will be possible also with the storms that develop on Friday.

 

Looks like a break in the rainfall potential for the weekend, although could still see some lingering activity Saturday morning. There is some potential for some additional development late in the weekend or early next week, but this is fairly uncertain.

 

 

[DoctorMu]

We have semi-tropical moisture now.  Will dry air get sucked in?

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/flash-wv.html

[Ed Lizard]

 Op Euro is about half an inch locally HOU, with a few lucky spots getting over an inch. GFS is literally trivial, although it will tease with an early-mid week system that will disappear from the model as the event approaches


Silver lining, op Euro has another system in 5 days that somehow leaves a nearly rainless donut over Houston, but gives a good rain, ala GFS to many. Will that rainless donut expand for everyone, or might HOU metro see rain.

Remember, the driest model has verified everytime this season.

HGX must feel like they are in Yuma.

 

PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
WIDESPREAD 60 POPS AND TAKING THE ABOVE INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BACK. STILL WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST BUT THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS EXTREMELY
LOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS/ UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO
BE MODERATE COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LOW QPF TOTALS. NEW RAP RUNS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT THIS. UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS THAT INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT BE IN PHASE.

MODEL RUNS EARLY IN THE WEEK ALSO POINTED TO A CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY AS OF CURRENT. THE JET SPLIT
THAT HAD BEEN FORECASTED OVER THE AREA NOW IS GONE. THE JET ALSO
BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FLOW AT 500 MB ALSO GOES
NEARLY ZONAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY.

 

 

[DoctorMu]

A welcome sight as things were browining.  Moisture is streaming hard and enough energy for a few tenths so far.  A nice downpour in CLL underway.

 

[DoctorMu]

1.8 in IMBY so far.  Impressive sneak attack on the Aggiedome

[Ed Lizard]

Bitterness as far NW/N HGX CWA gets an extra week or two before massive hell fire season begins, while Metro Houston gets sprinkles.

[1900hurricane]

Keep an eye on the southern Balconies area. Maybe some training wanting to happen around there if the scattered storms down there get their act together.

Sent from my iPhone

[1900hurricane]

Big swing and a miss on my part yesterday, but things are actually looking pretty good across south-central Texas this afternoon. Many thunderstorms firing up on a multitude of different boundaries and boundary intersections now.

 

[DoctorMu]

On the edge of some torrential rains.  Could the AggieDome have been transferred to Houston as a curse for the Texans passing on Johnny Football?

 

NW Harris so tantalizingly close...

 

[CranberryWX]

I got 0.62". On radar it looked like it would be a whole lot more.

[Srain]

The recent rainfall has helped and it appears additional heavy rainfall is possible as an unusually strong slow moving late season cold front sags S across the Southern Plains and Texas. The latest QPF suggests 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts possible as a strong S/W rounds the base of the Western trough and encounters a rich tropical airmass with PW's near or slightly above 2 inches Monday evening into Tuesday.

[1900hurricane]

EWX is teasing us.

 

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS AND MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING ON
THIS FEATURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DO NOT WANT TO FOCUS ON QPF TOTALS AT THIS
TIME...BUT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SOLUTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SHALLOW LAPSE RATES IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND LOW WIND SHEAR. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY THEN PROGRESS TO THE EAST WITH DRY WEATHER
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, this could be a soaker followed by some spectacular weather for May.

 

...although HGX is attempting to curb enthusiasm generated by GFS

 

 

[Srain]

A Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been introduced for portions of Central, SE, and NE Texas for tomorrow evening into Tuesday evening.

[1900hurricane]

I'm legitimately surprised at how aggressive the WPC is being with rainfall totals, especially with local offices playing things more conservatively. It wouldn't be the first time they've given us far too much precip either. I'm super excited that we might finally see some good rain, but I'm also still skeptical about quantity and coverage.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DoctorMu]

NAM still bringing the wetness

 

[Srain]

The 72 hour QPF suggests Flood Advisories may be needed across portions of South, Central, North and North East Texas. Their remain some uncertainty and if a surface trough does develop across South Texas, training storms may be possible as the slow moving front sags S across our Region.

[Srain]

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

...VALID 15Z MON MAY 12 2014 - 12Z TUE MAY 13 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 N CMY 10 NNW RRL 30 SW IMT 20 SE SUE 40 ENE MKE 10 E PWK C09
25 NNW PIA MPZ 25 NW AWG 10 SSE IIB 10 N CMY.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SSW DRT 35 N JCT 15 ESE RPH 15 W ADH 15 NW OKM 25 E PPF
60 SW SZL 20 NNW AIZ 30 E TBN 30 N BVX 10 ENE LIT 30 SSW ELD
20 ESE JAS 30 NE EFD PKV 10 SSE ALI 10 SSE LRD 60 SSW MMPG
30 SSW DRT.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WSW MLC 10 SSE GMJ 30 SSW SGF 20 W BPK 30 NE RUE 25 SSE RUE
10 W M89 20 E TXK 20 NNE OCH 15 WNW CXO 35 N VCT 30 ENE COT
25 NNW COT 10 NNE UVA 25 NNW T82 20 SE SEP GYI 10 WSW MLC.


...15Z UPDATE...

UP NORTH WE PULLED THE SLIGHT RISK DOWN AWAY FROM NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND EXPANDED IT INTO MORE OF EASTERN IOWA AND FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IT APPEARS THERE WOULD BE ONLY A VERY BRIEF
INTRUSION OF GREATER CAPE/PW TO THE NNW OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW
MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE LENGTHY DURATION OF
WARM/MOIST INFLOW CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING TRAINING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CONVECTION
WAS ALREADY FOCUSED THIS MORNING ALONG EAST TO WEST BOUNDARIES IN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA. BOTH AREAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT NOT BEFORE SOME DIURNAL BOOST TO CAPE
OCCURS.

DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY BRINGING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT AND
MODERATE AREAS FARTHER EAST. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR MORE PROPAGATION
INTO THE INFLOW AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS. DESPITE
DROUGHT OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION AND BROAD RELEASE OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CAPE SUGGESTIVE OF DECENT COLD POOL PROPAGATION...THERE ARE
A NUMBER OF FACTORS FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING.
NAMELY...FORECASTING SUSTAINED BROAD SCALE INFLOW OF VERY MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR BENEATH SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ATOP LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PROFILES. LEADING LINES OF CONVECTION WILL CARRY INTENSE
RAIN RATES...LIKELY FOLLOWED BY EXTENSIVE STRATIFORM REGIONS.
RESISTANCE TO FORWARD MOTION FROM INFLOW WILL BE STRONGEST
INITIALLY OVER EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALSO FOCUS
PARTICULARLY HEAVY QPF NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY WHERE
GREATER CAPE MAY YIELD PARTICULARLY HIGH RAIN RATES...THOUGH MIXED
WITH HAIL. QUICKER FORWARD PROPAGATION IS LIKELY THERE...BUT 2-4
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A VERY SHORT TIME...CAUSING TROUBLE
FOR URBANIZED AREAS AND FAST RESPONDING STREAMS/CREEKS.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN
LESSER COLD POOL STRENGTH. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER TRULY UNUSUAL
AMOUNTS ABOVE 6 INCHES WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE BROAD SCALE AND NEAR
SIMULTANEOUS RELEASE OF THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY. WHAT
IS UNUSUAL IS THE BREADTH AND DURATION OF THE EVENT AS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. HENCE...WE MAINTAINED A VERY
BROAD MODERATE RISK.