Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[DoctorMu]

^Yeah, feeling some foreboding.  Just hoping for any kind of dryline or front - Sunday/Monday

 

 

[DoctorMu]

it was 80°F and breezy this afternoon.  Felt like 65°.  WNW flow aloft continues.  2011 didn't have the winter we did, but not much less desiccated.

[Ed Lizard]

^^  At least a chance the cap could break at CLL this weekend and allow storms,

 

 

Near 0 chance down HOU metro

 

SWODY3 has line to I-10. but last few cap induced drought builders in HOU, SWODY3 and even SWODY2 were wildly optimistic.

 

CLL has a chance, but I would *not* bet the mortgage on Sunday storms.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, I didn't bet a Chinquapin Oak on it either.  Tree planting is off for this year.

 

 

^^  At least a chance the cap could break at CLL this weekend and allow storms,

 

 

Near 0 chance down HOU metro

 

SWODY3 has line to I-10. but last few cap induced drought builders in HOU, SWODY3 and even SWODY2 were wildly optimistic.

 

CLL has a chance, but I would *not* bet the mortgage on Sunday storms.

[Srain]

The upper low currently off the California Coast should begin to trek E and shear out across Texas on Sunday. Meanwhile another short wave begins to dive SE from the Pacific NW and usher in an unusually strong late season cold front on Sunday into Monday. Our best chance of rain appears to be along and just behind the actual sharp cold front when there could be some elevated storms possible during the late night hours of Sunday into Monday. The bigger weather story will likely be the much below normal temperatures across most of our Region. This late season storm system is expect to drop heavy snow into the Central and Southern Rockies and may extend into the Texas Panhandle and portions of the Southern/Central Plains on NE. It does not appear that we are in jeopardy of seeing any freezing temperature down here in SE Texas, but areas closer to the Northern Hill Country and just N of Dallas/Ft Worth may well see some near or just below 30 F early morning readings on Tuesday morning as a strong cold High Pressure cell settles across the Region. After Monday, the pattern does not indicate much of any rain until possibly later in the month of April.

[bubba hotep]

So much for the EML drying up the morning precipitation, we just got a nice gully washer after a morning of mostly light rain.

[Quixotic1]

So much for the EML drying up the morning precipitation, we just got a nice gully washer after a morning of mostly light rain.

now we have to get rid of these clouds. Ugh.

[bubba hotep]

now we have to get rid of these clouds. Ugh.

 

Full sun and blue sky here now....

[Ed Lizard]

Lone cell reaching CLL as it dies, was severe earlier closer to I-35.

 

NAM and GFS, as should be expected, cut back to ballpark a quarter inch the amount of rain tomorrow with the nasty little cold front.  Could break some temp records in parts of Texas.

 

Quarter inch per week, inch a month, 12 inches a year, well, the developing warm ENSO should start getting us some useful rain toward the next cool season, after a lot more trees die, so HOU area won't end up quite as dry as El Paso does in a normal year.

[Srain]

Morning Update from Jeff:

 

Significant late season cold front heading toward the area this morning.

 

Near record lows possible Tuesday and Wednesday with some locations near freezing.

 

Strong winds of 20-35mph likely this afternoon with temperatures falling into the 50’s.  

 

Impressive cold front is currently approaching the region with College Station reporting 74 and Waco 51. A broken line of scattered showers/thunderstorms has develop along the frontal boundary from NW of Austin to the Louisiana border and is moving southward. 00Z soundings from DRT and CRP still showed strong aping in place and while lift from an incoming shortwave should help to erode the capping this morning think the severe threat is overall low (but not zero) for the area. Surface front may very well plow rapidly across the area this morning with a thin line of showers followed by elevated thunderstorms for a period from late morning through early evening ahead of the 850mb front. Should any storms become surface based ahead of the surface front severe hail or wind damage could occur and this would most likely be near the coast or east of I-45 where morning surface heating may help to weaken the capping inversion.

 

Big news will be the large temperature fall and the strong winds as a late season cold air mass drops down the plains and into TX. Temperatures will fall 20-25 degrees with the frontal passage from the 70’s into the 50’s and possibly even the 40’s north of HWY 105 this afternoon under impressive cold air advection. Strong winds of 20-35mph will drive wind chills into the 40’s over nearly all of the region. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this afternoon and this evening with coastal waters Gale Warnings issued.

 

Next item is potential low temperatures and possible freeze for portions of the area both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. With strong winds helping keep the low level air mass mixed early Tuesday do not think much of the region will fall to freezing, but record lows in the mid and upper 30’s appear threatened. Of bigger concern is Wednesday morning with clear skies, calm winds, and low dewpoints the potential for freezing conditions is possible especially north of HWY 105 and in the normally cold areas along with record or near record low temperatures. Latest GFS guidance for Conroe is now showing a low of 32 on Wednesday morning with mid to upper 30’s likely widespread across the region. Given the spring green up is well underway and sensitive vegetation has been planted near freezing or freezing temperatures will require a freeze warning possibly for parts of the area.

 

Lovelady Tornado:

NWS will survey the damage associated with a tornado in Houston County yesterday afternoon today. Houston County Sherriff officer video clearly showed a condensation funnel in contact with the ground as the storm moved across the small town of Lovelady. At least 8 structures were damaged including Lovelady High School and 3 mobile homes were completely destroyed resulting in 1 serious injury. Damage images suggest EF0 or possibly EF1 wind speeds. NWS team will determine EF scale rating and path diameter and length today.

[DoctorMu]

Got some overrun that is holding together after a disappointing cell and broken line released little moisture last night.

 

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1014 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY COLDSPRING TO BRENHAM AND
EXPECTED TO MAKE GOOD SWD PROGRESS AND OFF THE GLS COASTLINE BY
EARLY AFTN. TEMPS AT CLL ARE CURRENTLY 24 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHERE THEY STARTED AT SUNRISE AND EXPECT SIMILAR TEMP DROPS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

12Z SOUNDINGS AT CRP AND LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AT IAH CONTINUE
TO SHOW CAP IN PLACE. NOT LIKELY THIS WILL BE OVERCOME ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TO SEE SFC BASED TSTMS. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND INCOMING LFQ OF JET WOULD STILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS
WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT OF HAIL (BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL). SEEING
ACTIVITY BLOSSOM TO OUR WEST AND ANTICIPATE INCREASED COVERAGE
OVER SE TX IN THE COMING HOURS.

[1900hurricane]

Well, this is a pleasant surprise for once. Where has all of this been all winter?!

Now if only we can get this bit of fortune to carry over to a surface-based event...

Sent from my iPhone

[DoctorMu]

0.75 in of precip in the last 24 hours - could be worse

[Ed Lizard]

A week w/o a post.  Wonder why.

 

 

I didn't think the previous 16 day Euro ensemble control run 1 inch in over 2 weeks could get more depressing, the latest 0Z Euro ensemble control run has 16 day rainfall totals for Houston of a quarter inch.

Not as warm as 2011 yet, but everything IS going to die and catch fire at this rate.

 

One thing I don't know, the 4 non-tropical origin systems June/July 1997 before the season ended, was that because 1997 was going to be an awesome year, and then the hyer-warm ENSO killed it, (that won't be the case this year) or does a hyper-warm ENSO favor non-tropical systems.

 

I don't know.  But assuming a dead tropics and an apparent storm track well North of here, every tree will be dead in Memorial Park.  Bastrop, the last fire probably used a lot of fuel.  Maybe it'll be the Piney Woods that will burn this year.

0Z GFS says a minor rain event is a week away, but 2014 has shown the driest model is usually correct.  Even if the GFS verified, a third of an inch a week, things will just die more slowly.  16 day GFS is about an inch, once again, everything still dies, just more slowly.

College Station is on the SW line (CLL mentioned by name in SPC points) for a very low end (15% wind and hail, nothing hatched) severe risk.  Trained experts at SPC end even the general thunderstorm line 35 miles WNW of HOU.

GFS and NAM show trivial amounts of rain at AUS despite both showing decent SBCAPE and LIs.  Weak wind flow above the surface does not look favorable for organized activity.  10Z HRRR does show isolated, garden variety looking showers and t-showers in the AUS and CLL area.

[bubba hotep]

Watch out for the I-35 corridor 

 

[Quixotic1]

got shut out. On the wrong side of the line.

[Ed Lizard]

12Z GFS agrees with Euro ensemble control member, about a quarter of inch of rain TOTAL  the next 16 days for Houston.  Models has been quite persisent, GFS and Euro, meaning they are almost certainly correct they'll be no meaningful rain until at least the second week of May, but I expect each 16 day run will extend the dryness out further.

Well, October and November, the coming hyper-warm ENSO should bring us rain, but were as dry as anyplace in the United States for the forseeable future.

 

Ayway, a couple of completely bone dry frontal passages, and maybe a morning or two below 50ºF, that will be the excitement the next two weeks.

Everything will die this Summer.  I'm sort of hoping for a non-tropical origin Gulf system in June or July, ala 1997, but that is asking for a lot.  It'd be great, but more likely, just dying trees, ranchers selling cattle or buying hay, ruined crops, and, of course, fires.

Maybe special wild fire threads in a couple of months.

But at least Saturday and Sunday look interesting for extreme North Texas to Oklahoma and Kansas.  I hope our Texas storm chaser friends will get pictures.  We don't know what storms look like anymore.

 

 

 

Three month CPC guidance MJJ is 'Equal Chances' above, below or normal precip, meaning the signal is weak,  The are pickning up,  I think on the SW monsoon and the warming Pacific with an above normal rainfall prob out there.  Euro season for MJJ is neutral, or a chance for rain, before the dry returns for the Summer months.  I think the Euro season ASO near normal is 'sniffing' out the chance of enhanced rain in October from the mega-Nino as we enter the cool season.  Probably too late for the trees or to prevent devastating fires.

[1900hurricane]

Wasn't sure where to post this, as it could easily have gone in the April 23rd thread too, but the NWS out of Amarillo issued a pretty cool forecast discussion this morning. I think they know their audience!

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON

[Quixotic1]

Thanks for posting that 1900.  Forecaster sounded very frustrated at points. 

[DoctorMu]

A week w/o a post.  Wonder why.

 

 

I didn't think the previous 16 day Euro ensemble control run 1 inch in over 2 weeks could get more depressing, the latest 0Z Euro ensemble control run has 16 day rainfall totals for Houston of a quarter inch.

Not as warm as 2011 yet, but everything IS going to die and catch fire at this rate.

 

One thing I don't know, the 4 non-tropical origin systems June/July 1997 before the season ended, was that because 1997 was going to be an awesome year, and then the hyer-warm ENSO killed it, (that won't be the case this year) or does a hyper-warm ENSO favor non-tropical systems.

 

I don't know.  But assuming a dead tropics and an apparent storm track well North of here, every tree will be dead in Memorial Park.  Bastrop, the last fire probably used a lot of fuel.  Maybe it'll be the Piney Woods that will burn this year.

0Z GFS says a minor rain event is a week away, but 2014 has shown the driest model is usually correct.  Even if the GFS verified, a third of an inch a week, things will just die more slowly.  16 day GFS is about an inch, once again, everything still dies, just more slowly.

College Station is on the SW line (CLL mentioned by name in SPC points) for a very low end (15% wind and hail, nothing hatched) severe risk.  Trained experts at SPC end even the general thunderstorm line 35 miles WNW of HOU.

GFS and NAM show trivial amounts of rain at AUS despite both showing decent SBCAPE and LIs.  Weak wind flow above the surface does not look favorable for organized activity.  10Z HRRR does show isolated, garden variety looking showers and t-showers in the AUS and CLL area.

 

The cell literally disintegrated a few miles NW of town.  The prospects of rain have been too depressing.

 

This is the most exciting panel in 17 days on GFS I could pull up.  the water bill is going to be a killer.  At least we did not plant a tree this year.  On the bright side the lower humidity makes evenings pleasant.

 

[DoctorMu]

Ed - I'm already praying for rogue supercells and tropical action moving forward.  The usual scenarios this time of year are just not going to come through. 

 

 on around May 8 and 9.  DP > 70°F and no rain?  that's the worst.

[Ed Lizard]

12Z Euro 240 hour TOTAL rainfall for most of the Houston area is under 0.10 inches.

The 16 day EPS isn't done yet, but I suspect it will extend the dry streak out well into May. 

12Z GFS concurs, some minor (ballpark half inch) rains well into fantasy land, May 8th and May 9th, but April will finish as the most horribly boring month ever in SE Texas.

On the positive side, frequent watering has proven the tree doctor at least partially wrong, about half the branches on the water oak are putting out leaves.  Ever since I found out that wasn't a live oak and needed 30 gallons/day in warm weather, well, even through the Winter I watered it every second or third day.  Just started budding out last week, only 4 green leaves on an entire tree all Winter had given me hope.

 

 

If the half of the leafless branches don't start leafing, I may have to spend some money to get them chopped off. 

 

 

But half the tree survived last years drought, and although this year looks even worse, at least until the warm ENSO kicks in (and with our luck we'll have a rare dry warm ENSO cool season) than 2011, well, I now know it isn't a live oak and will need watering 3 times a week.

 

 

But our weather is so tedious around here.

 

 

Maybe DFW will get some weather this weekend, and I have family there.

[msp]

toasty in south texas today.  the dryline has been pretty lame so far for t-storm activity, but laredo is up to 108F and mcallen at 106F

[DoctorMu]

A rogue cell is no match for the AggieDome.  Watch it split her in two.

 

 

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, that was a really poorly timed supercell split...

 

[Ed Lizard]

16 day EPS, which predicted almost half an inch of rain in the HOU area last night and tomorrow, which was wrong, predicts a total of 1 inch through May 13, of which half didn't fall already.

 

The dryline is well West of SE Texas, but winds are shifting from S to SW already, and pressure is rising. Perhaps the remnants of the Eastern dryline that sparked a few storms in NW Texas Saturday.  No appreciable airmass change.  But even less convergence when the actual dryline arrives, as it it really mattered.  Gravity waves in the Gulf, and a cap of alloy heat treated titanium measured at CRP.

 

 

Drought through last week not as bad as the Hill Country, but more/denser trees locally.  Not sure which area will get the most wildfires this Summer.  Population density higher around here.  Imaging a wild fire spreading into the Woodlands or Kingwood...

 

[msp]

yeah, the fire conditions are certainly problematic.  saw from KBTX a story about a 500-acre blaze burning over at fort hood today.  at least the drop in humidity here is nice.  makes 90F more bearable.  

 

my grumpy self will bet that we've had as many ice events as hard rain events in the last few months.  haven't seen more than 0.01" in two weeks and we are running more than an inch below normal just so far in april.  since dec. 1, we now are running a rainfall deficit of about 9"... much less than half of normal.  does it ever rain in texas?  my four years here have just seemed like one long drought.

[Ed Lizard]

 

Summer of massive fires coming to Houston Metro as endless drought continues.

 

I think 2008 was the last year even near normal.

 

Houston area airports, half the normal rain, Galveston a third of normal annual rain...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=drought_statement_2014_0429

 

FIRE IMPACTS.

AS OF APRIL 29TH...THERE WERE NO BURN BANS IN EFFECT.

THE KEETCH-BRYAM DROUGHT INDEX...OR KBDI...IS AN INDEX USED TO

DETERMINE FOREST FIRE POTENTIAL. THE KBDI CAN RANGE FROM 0 TO 800...

WHERE 0 REPRESENTS NO MOISTURE DEPLETION AND 800 REPRESENTS

ABSOLUTELY DRY CONDITIONS. A KBDI BETWEEN 600 AND 800 IS OFTEN

ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE DROUGHT AND INCREASED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.

THE FOLLOWING TABLE LISTS THE KBDI ACROSS THE AREA AS OF

APRIL 29TH:

                    KBDI              KBDI

                    600-500        500-400

                    JACKSON      BRAZORIA

                                           MATAGORDA

                                          WHARTON

DROUGHT MONITOR.

ONLY JACKSON COUNTY IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED IN SEVERE DROUGHT OR D2.

THE LACK OF RAINFALL COUPLED WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL

LIKELY PROMPT A DETERIORATION IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND FUTURE

DROUGHT MONITORS WILL LIKELY REFLECT DEGRADATING CONDITIONS ACROSS

SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

 

 

[CranberryWX]

Last 16 days of the month are zeros for my station...25 total for the month.

[Ed Lizard]

Fantasy range GFS, Euro and ensembles all hinting at a fairly minor (ballpark half inch) rain event about May 11th.

 

A half inch rain event twice a week would be a good thing, a half inch rain event every sixteen days, not so good.

 

 

Oh, just had a thought on the 1997 El Niño, that year had a Central Texas tornado outbreak.  The ENSO thread suggests more of a 2009 event, and I can't think of anything exciting that happened in 2009.