Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[1900hurricane]

We're seeing rain, but wintry mix nearby and freezing line moving through town

 

Hearne and Caldwell have made it to freezing. It won't be long until we are there as well.

[radarman]

 

Yep, that's an 83*F temperature disparity. This one might have earned a place in the record books.

 

 

That's pretty astounding... Ft. Worth was 82 yesterday, 23 at the same time a day later, under wind chill advy for values of as low as -5 tonight.

 

Heavy sleet in Arlington right now.

 

 

Update: It didn't last very long.

 

Looks like another decently strong but quick hitting batch of precip came through Arlington about 20 minutes ago (425 pm cst).  I run the radar at UTA... Differential reflectivity was really low except along the front edge, did you get some sleet or heavily rimed balls followed by real flakes?  Thanks in advance for any reports...

[bubba hotep]

Wow is all I can say about this storm right now I'm Tyler. Intense lightning, thunder, and heavy sleet. Everything covered in white. Amazing to watch cars drive by and turn up water from earlier and it's freezing almost instantly! Just pouring sleet currently! Best storm of the winter!

 

Sounds awesome! I was holding out for that.  Thunder sleet is one winter event that I don't have on my resume yet.  We just had our heaviest burst of the day, enough to overcome melting and turn the road white.

[DFWWeather]

That's pretty astounding... Ft. Worth was 82 yesterday, 23 at the same time a day later, under wind chill advy for values of as low as -5 tonight.

 

 

Looks like another decently strong but quick hitting batch of precip came through Arlington about 20 minutes ago (425 pm cst).  I run the radar at UTA... Differential reflectivity was really low except along the front edge, did you get some sleet or heavily rimed balls followed by real flakes?  Thanks in advance for any reports...

 

Yes I did. Very big sleet pellets knocking on the windows. I live just 5 minutes from the UTA campus.

[Srain]

Ice forming on cars NW of Austin. Ice also developing on elevated metal surfaces in CLL.

[wxmx]

 

Yep, that's an 83*F temperature disparity. This one might have earned a place in the record books.

McAllen and Falcon were 95F at that time

[Quixotic1]

Wow is all I can say about this storm right now I'm Tyler. Intense lightning, thunder, and heavy sleet. Everything covered in white. Amazing to watch cars drive by and turn up water from earlier and it's freezing almost instantly! Just pouring sleet currently! Best storm of the winter!

Congrats. Thunder and winter precip is like the Holy Grail.

[bubba hotep]

We got a couple of really heavy burst with the back edge, just enough to turn the local streets into solid sheets of ice.  

[Srain]

The 21Z SPC SREF continues to advertise freezing rain/sleet and possibly a snow flurry or two overnight before the precip ends. It is also noteworthy the the SREF is suggesting an expanded area freezing rain across all of Central Texas and Northern areas of SE Texas overnight tomorrow night into early Tuesday. Each run has expanded the aeral coverage of the potential event for tomorrow night. We will see if that trend continues.

[Srain]

Update from Jeff:

Impressive arctic cold front has crossed the area this afternoon switching from spring to winter in about 30.minutes

Strong arctic air mass is pouring into the region with 700pm temperatures ranging from 28 at College Station to a balmy 69 at Galveston….even better is the 7 at Amarillo and 75 at Brownsville. Freezing line has quickly advanced southward this evening and is currently along a  line from Columbus to Brenham to Huntsville. Winds continue to howl in the 25-35mph range as the pressure gradient remains strong over the area forcing wind chill readings into the 20’s and 10’s across the area currently. Lift associated with the departing upper level trough is starting to move eastward out of the region and expect only brief light rain/drizzle for the next few hours prior to all precipitation ending by 1100pm. Winds at both Caldwell and Crockett are reporting calm winds indicating the annomometer has glazed over from freezing rain and this has been confirmed by law enforcement reports of ice on elevated surfaces in Brazos and Madison counties. While pavement is still warm from the recent warmth think surface temperatures north of HWY 105 are right at the cusp of forming ice on wet bridges and overpasses….however TXDOT is not reporting any ice on bridges and overpasses in SE TX at the moment. Luckily addition rainfall will be extremely light and the main threat will be from water freezing on elevated roadways as the pavement cools overnight.

 

Other item is the issuance of a wind chill advisory for the following counties until 800am: Brazos, Burleson, Washington, Grimes, Walker, Trinity, Madison, and Houston.

Winds of 20-30mph overnight with temperatures in the 26-28 degree range will produce wind chill values of 10-15 degrees over these counties.

[David Reimer]

Fort Worth does not have high enough confidence to issue a Winter Storm Watch for tomorrow night (as of a few moments ago). They'll let the midnight crew handle it. The 0Z NAM does continue to advertise a ice storm for parts of Central Texas albeit localized. As Srain noted, the 21Z SREF did increase chances of freezing rain tomorrow night quite a bit. 

[Srain]

HGX issues Hard Freeze Warning for Counties N of Harris County including Montgomery County (The Woodlands/Conroe Area)

[David Reimer]

Well the 0Z NAM and 0Z GFS are in and agree that at least a quarter inch of ice accumulation is probable somewhere in Central Texas tomorrow night. We'll likely have warning criteria met somewhere. 

[Srain]

Another Update from Jeff:

Hard Freeze Warning issued north of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston for tonight.

Temperatures continue to tumble across the region and guidance has been of little use with this invading arctic air mass. Freezing line at 900pm extends from Columbus to Katy to The Woodlands to Livingston and continues to progress southward. Scattered showers continue to develop within the cold air mass resulting in freezing rain over Waller and Montgomery Counties. Should see all precipitation end within the next 1-2 hours and do not expect any significant ice accumulation as very gusty north winds are quickly drying what falls and roadway temperatures remain very warm. TXDOT continues to report no ice formation on bridges and overpasses across SE TX at this time even with surface temperatures in the 27-29 range north of HWY 105 and this is likely from the very warm temperatures yesterday and today which the roadways are holding some of that warmt.

As for temperatures…upstream readings are extremely cold for early March ranging from the 10’s to 1’s over NW TX and OK. This air mass continues to push southward ahead of the arctic high over the Dakotas. Many locations across SE TX are already near forecasted overnight lows and expect another 2-4 degrees of cooling from cold air advection processes pushing areas under the Hard Freeze Warning into the 20’s for 3-5 hours tonight. Damage to sensitive vegetation and vegetation in bloom is likely with surface temperatures in the 20’s.

Next concern is the potential for a winter mix of precipitation Monday night into Tuesday morning across portions of SE TX as another disturbance moves across and the cold arctic dome which is colder than expected remains locked in place. Will have to take a close look at the incoming 00Z guidance product early Monday to attempt to define where this threat may exist across the area.

[Srain]

Water vapor imagery and the SPC as well as the WPC Winter Weather Outlook updated early this morning show a potent Southern stream short wave with elevated storm chance with sub freezing surface temperature in place across Central and SE Texas suggesting freezing rain and sleet during the early morning hours of Tuesday may meet Winter Storm Warning criteria across the Hill Country including the Austin Metro Area and extending E into the Houston Metro Area.

[Srain]

EWX issues Winter Storm Warning for locations from Burnett to Austin to La Grange for freezing rain and thundersleet and a Winter Weather Advisory SW to San Antonio along I-10. HGX will likely issue a Winter Weather Advisory later this morning with the potential for upgrading to a Winter Storm Warning including Harris County as those same conditions may be possible across SE Texas early tomorrow morning. The main concern is the elevated storms being suggested by the overnight guidance and increased precip rates if sub freezing temps are indeed met in Metro Houston. FWD issues Winter Weather Advisory as well.

[Srain]

The 03Z SPC SREF plumes for IAH suggest temps between 29F and 35F by 12Z tomorrow morning suggesting we are right on the cusp of a fairly significant ice event.. The WPC Winter Weather Outlook Desk specifically mentions Central and SE Texas in the increased risk for a potential widespread freezing rain event and the SPC mentions elevated storms with thunder freezing rain and thundersleet as a potential.

[Srain]

Interesting to see 'Lake Effect' snow plumes spreading S off the Lakes across the N Texas area via Texas visible imagery.

[Srain]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
926 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT AFTER 11 PM...

.A VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER THE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 11 PM NEAR EDNA AND EXPANDING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER A COLD EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES AT
BELOW FREEZING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE AREA...AND SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. ROADS MAY BECOME ICY AND
ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 9
AND NOON WITH AREAS TO THE NORTH BEING THE LAST TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. THE QUANTITY OF ACCUMULATIONS IS STILL IN QUESTION BUT
SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235-032330-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WW.Y.0004.140304T0500Z-140304T1800Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-
WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...
COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...
EDNA...EL CAMPO...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...
HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PASADENA...
PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...
SUGAR LAND...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WILLIS
926 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY.

* EVENT...A VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
  THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER THE REGION
  BEGINNING AROUND 11 PM NEAR EDNA AND EXPANDING NORTH AND
  NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER A COLD EVENING
  WITH TEMPERATURES AT BELOW FREEZING AN AREA OF LIGHT
  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE
  AREA...AND SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN
  AND SLEET. ROADS MAY BECOME ICY AND ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES
  WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
  ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 9 AND NOON WITH AREAS TO
  THE NORTH BEING THE LAST TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THE QUANTITY OF
  ACCUMULATIONS IS STILL IN QUESTION BUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE
  EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WARNING AREA MAY BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF ICE ON ROADWAYS...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES MAY MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS.

 

[1900hurricane]

Game on.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
216 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY THE WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND A WINTER ADVISORY SURROUNDING THIS AREA AFTER
11 PM...

.A AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER THE REGION BEGINNING AROUND 11 PM
NEAR EDNA AND EXPANDING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AFTER A COLD EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES AT BELOW FREEZING
AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
OVER THE AREA...AND SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING
RAIN AND AND SLEET. ROADS MAY BECOME ICY AND ELEVATED ROADS AND
BRIDGES WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICING. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
A COLUMBUS TO HEMPSTEAD TO CONROE TO COLLEGE STATION ARE UNDER A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND IN THIS REGION ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN 0.10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 9
AND NOON WITH AREAS TO THE NORTH BEING THE LAST TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING.

TXZ195>199-210>212-040430-
/O.UPG.KHGX.WW.Y.0004.140304T0500Z-140304T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.WS.W.0003.140304T0500Z-140304T1700Z/
BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-
WALLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...
BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE
216 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* EVENT...A COLD AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FREEZE RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER
11 PM AND INTENSIFY OVER THE WARNING AREA BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM.
ICE IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ON BRIDGES FIRST BUT SHOULD
DEVELOP ON SURFACE STREETS AS WELL BEFORE 6 AM. SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WARNING AREA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM AFTER 9 AM THE
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY NOON HELPING
TO QUICKLY THAW ROADS AND ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

* TIMING...AFTER 11 PM THROUGH 11 AM

* MAIN IMPACT...TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON MANY ROADS AND
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND ELEVATED ROADS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...POSSIBLY POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WARNING AREA WILL BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF ICE ON SURFACE ROADS MAY
MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. SIDEWALKS MAY RECEIVE A GLAZE OF ICE AND
BECOME DIFFICULT FOR PEDESTRIANS.

[msp]

clouds have stuck around... only 31/22 now.  forecast hi was 39.  43 in austin right now

[CranberryWX]

Winter Storm Warning for ice...Montgomery county. Wasn't expecting that...

[aggiegeog]

24 here in Lindale with extra slick conditions even major roads are pretty icy from what I have heard.

[1900hurricane]

It's very interesting that the SPC has the same areas under Winter Weather Advisories/Winter Storm Warnings also under a general thunderstorm risk. Convective elements with thunder possible with frozen precip?

 

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST MON MAR 03 2014

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO INCLUDE A SMALL AREA FOR
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN GA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AS NEAR SFC
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S...THE CONVECTIVE LAYER MIGHT
BECOME DEEP ENOUGH WITHIN ZONE OF FRONTAL ASCENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 03/03/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST MON MAR 03 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE BEING A MULTI-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER NRN MEXICO WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS FAR SRN TX TODAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. OVER THE PACIFIC NW...A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN U.S.
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EWD TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SWD/SEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES
WITH THIS BOUNDARY REACHING THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA 04/12Z.

...DEEP SOUTH TX...

THE EARLY PASSAGE OF THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AMIDST A THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...A RISK
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

...PACIFIC NW INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND-PROGRESSING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

...CAROLINAS/ERN GA TODAY...

A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEEPER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY...AND NOT SUFFICIENT FOR A GENERAL
TSTM AREA.

[DoctorMu]

It's not ventured above freezing...back down to 31°F and dropping.  1900's post suggests Thundersleet? 

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

[1900hurricane]

Here we go!

 

[CranberryWX]

Already below freezing in my back yard just north of the Woodlands

[msp]

30F last hour and falling.  models really underplayed the cold at the surface.  sleet introduced back into the wording for CLL.  radar really filling in northwest of san antonio.

 

pretty much every gov't and school around here has announced a 2-hr delay already, but TAMU has been silent... lol.  given their ridiculous opposition to delaying classes this winter regardless of the hazards on the roads, i expect to have a fun drive to class tomorrow at 8am. /endrant

[DoctorMu]

OMG they almost have a supercell signature.  Right turns and snownados ahead?    

 

 

Here we go!

 

[DoctorMu]

CodeMaroon message from Interim Prez Hussey to use extreme caution in 3...2...1...

 

 

30F last hour and falling.  models really underplayed the cold at the surface.  sleet introduced back into the wording for CLL.  radar really filling in northwest of san antonio.

 

pretty much every gov't and school around here has announced a 2-hr delay already, but TAMU has been silent... lol.  given their ridiculous opposition to delaying classes this winter regardless of the hazards on the roads, i expect to have a fun drive to class tomorrow at 8am. /endrant