Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[bubba hotep]

I'm just going to pretend that I didn't read this in the FWD discussion:

 

THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPOCCURRING IN VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD RAISECONCERN FOR WINTER PRECIP.

[brettjrob]

Any significant severe potential Thursday had is rapidly falling apart due to moisture concerns. Eastern troughing ad infinitum.

[Ed Lizard]

Not seeing happy things in the near future...

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Potential for showers and thunderstorms tonight into early Wednesday.

 

Cool front has moved off the coast overnight with a drier air mass now over the region and high temperatures today running a good 10 degrees lower than the record heat on Monday. Winds are already starting to shift around to the E and SE this morning and the frontal boundary will begin to return northward as a warm front by early afternoon. Aloft a powerful short wave disturbance over the Great Basin this morning will move ESE toward central and SE TX by late afternoon. Advection of colder air aloft over warm afternoon surface temperatures will make for an increasingly unstable air mass by late afternoon near/along the returning warm front. High resolution short term models show a rapid increase in thunderstorms late this afternoon from central TX into the northern sections of SE TX along the warm front as strong lift from the disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable air mass. Forecasted instability of 1000-1500 J/kg is expect north of I-10 by mid to late afternoon and this combined with favorable shear will support a few strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail being the primary threat. Low level winds typically back near warm fronts and potentially can enhance the tornado threat however surface dewpoints only near 60 suggest high cloud bases and this will likely reduce the tornado threat.

 

Initial storm mode will be isolated strong to severe supercells which will gradually transition into a broken line of thunderstorms. Storms should affect most of the areas north of I-10 and possibly all the way to the coast overnight. TX TECH WRF model shows most of the activity focused in the corridor from College Station to Liberty while the HRRR shows more widespread activity affecting nearly all of the area but does weaken any storms as they cross south of I-10 toward the coast. Current thinking is that storms will develop and affect much of the northern counties of SE TX this evening and then begin to weaken with the loss of heating and instability by late evening as they move south of I-10. The overall severe threat looks marginal with hail being the primary threat.

 

Another weak front crosses the area early Wednesday with a slight cool down. End of the week forecast continues to exhibit changes as models are not handling the arrival of a strong cold front over the weekend well. Yesterday models were driving this front off the coast on Friday, but have trended slower recently and have the front off the coast late Saturday. Temperatures will warm back into the 80’s by Friday ahead of this boundary. Flow just above the surface looks more SSW or SW which suggest capping may become entrained across the region which will help to limit rain chances. Not overly confident in the late week/weekend forecast at the moment with respect to any rain chances and just how much cold air will filter in behind the front and at what point.

[Srain]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013
  
   VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/S TX...
  
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...BROAD SWATH OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
   CHARACTERIZE UPPER-AIR PATTERN ACROSS ROUGHLY ERN 2/3 OF CONUS...E
   OF PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC RIDGE NOW CROSSING PAC COAST.  BY
   20/12Z...THIS RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND FROM AZ-AB.  ANCHORING CYCLONIC
   GYRE NOW CENTERED OVER LS AREA SHOULD MEANDER ERRATICALLY NEAR LS
   BEFORE EJECTING ON DAY-2.  WEAK PERTURBATION IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
   CHANNEL IMAGERY E OF RIDGE...OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SERN NV.  THIS
   FEATURE IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING
   SRN PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE AND ADJOINING SOUTH-PLAINS REGION AROUND
   00Z...THEN LA/LOWER DELTA REGION BY END OF PERIOD.
  
   AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS DRAWN AT 11Z FROM WRN SC SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
   FL PANHANDLE TO N-CENTRAL GULF...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER NWRN
   GULF OFFSHORE TX/LA TO NEAR BRO.  FRONT AND RELATED THERMAL/THETAE
   GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE AND RETREAT NWD SOMEWHAT
   TODAY OVER S TX.
  
   ...CENTRAL/S TX...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN OVER
   PORTIONS EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION AND WRN HILL COUNTRY...INITIALLY
   HIGH-BASED WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STG TO MRGLLY SVR GUSTS.
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH EVENING...POSSIBLY
   INCLUDING UPSCALE EXPANSION OF ANY LATE-AFTN ACTIVITY...LEADING TO
   INCREASING COVERAGE/DENSITY OF LARGE HAIL THREAT IN PARTICULAR.
   MAIN CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR RELATED OUTLOOK UPGRADE INCLUDE...
   1. APCHG MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED SUBTLE LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT INCREASE MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND REINFORCE ALREADY STEEP
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT...
   2. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG AND N OF FRONT IN
   ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ELEVATED WAA...
   3. ISALLOBARIC PROCESSES ON BOTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY LEADING TO
   INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND
   4. VERY CONSISTENT TIMING AND GEN MESOSCALE REGION OF TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH THIS EVENING AMONGST LATEST
   OPERATIONAL PROGS...MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS...AND
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING/HIGH-RES GUIDANCE.
  
   LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION -- BOTH AT AND ABOVE SFC -- SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO OFFSET AFTERNOON DIABATIC HEATING/MIXING IN
   SUPPORT OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  MEANWHILE...VEERING/INCREASING
   FLOW WITH HEIGHT THROUGH MOST OF LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD
   LEAD TO 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...INDICATING POTENTIAL
   FOR SUPERCELLS.  ACTIVITY SHOUDL SHIFT EWD TO ESEWD TOWARD MID-UPPER
   TX COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH GEN DECREASE IN ORGANIZED SVR
   THREAT INTO SE TX.
  
   ..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 03/19/2013
 

[patrick7032]

Any significant severe potential Thursday had is rapidly falling apart due to moisture concerns. Eastern troughing ad infinitum.

I totally disagree. Thursday has plenty of potential. Areas south of the Red River...and even moreso south of Interstate 20...have a good shot at severe storms...if the cap can be overcome. Loading point soundings arross my area from the NAM/GFS/euro ALL SHOW good shear and modest instability. The NAM and Euro compeltely erode the cap by 21z...while the GFS has a weak cap of about ~ -40 j/kg. Looking more closely at the data...the cap is centered around 842 mb...and is only about 50mb deep...with a cap strength of 1.8C. Overall a decent cap...but not an impossible one to break...especially with the dryline adding surface convenance...a 75 kt jet streak crossing the area at 500mb...and a right entrance region into a 110kt jet at 250mb. Granted SBcapes are ~100mb...but upon further investigation the model initial conditions are in error. The model starts with an initial condition of 68/51. Modifying more a more realistic 81/55 gives ~1700 j/kg. That would be enough to get the job done. This was from the 12z data yesterday before I left work. I'm currently interrogating the model data now and will post some AWIPS point soundings images for Texas..and possible Oklahoma. If there are any requests let me know.

[DoctorMu]

 

I'm just going to pretend that I didn't read this in the FWD discussion:

 

THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP

OCCURRING IN VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD RAISE

CONCERN FOR WINTER PRECIP.

 

lol The GFS Fantasy. It's alive!

[Ed Lizard]

New GFS looks windy Thursday, but otherwise not exciting in Texas.

 

Glass half full optimism for our Hill Country friends, mid to upper 50s TTs this evening. 

[Ed Lizard]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0056_radar.gif

 

 

Embedding images not working so well...

[DoctorMu]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0056_radar.gif

 

 

Embedding images not working so well...

 

Cell making a right turn near San Saba

 

any rotation?

 

 

kewl windmap view of trough

 

http://hint.fm/wind/

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Fairly active night across the region with numerous reports of hail damage mainly west and northwest of the metro Houston area.
 
Clusters of severe storms that were prodigious hail producers have weakened and moved offshore this morning as the short wave disturbance aloft moves eastward ending lift. At the surface a weak frontal boundary which helped focus much of the overnight activity has moved into the coastal waters with a cooling and drying of the air mass once again over the region. Should see skies slowly clear out by late morning to early afternoon as subsidence behind the departing disturbance takes over.  Dry and cool weather will be in place today and Thursday followed by a rapid return of SE winds and low level moisture/humidity. Overnight lows rise from near 50 on Thursday morning to the low 60’s on Friday morning under increasing low level clouds and warm air advection off the western Gulf.

 

Rain chance sneak back into the forecast on Saturday as the next cold front and disturbance move across the state. Not liking the model forecast soundings of a developing warm nose in the mid levels…the dreaded cap that has been so ever present early in 2013 and basically shut down rainfall across the region. Models try and erode this capping inversion allowing some convection Saturday afternoon, but I am not ready to buy into that just yet given the track record of rainfall lacking storm systems this year so far. Otherwise the cold front should push off the coast with clearing and cooler conditions by midday Sunday.
 
Storm Reports:

Lexington, Lee: 2.0 inch hail shattered passenger side car window
 
3SSE Lexington, Lee: 1.50 inch hail dents cars…reported by CoCoRaHS observer
 
Burton, Washington: 1.75 inch golf ball size hail in the town of Burton
 
7WNW Somerville, Burleson: 60mph wind gust via trained spotter
 
8WNW Somerville, Burleson: Ping Pong ball size hail
 
Bellville, Austin: Golf ball size hail across town, some damage to roofs and windows
 
Brookshire, Waller: Penny to Golf ball size hail. Numerous windows knocked out. 50% of town without power. Hail covering the ground to several inches.
 
Brenham, Washington: marble size hail for 20-30minutes. Hail covered the entire ground, still on the ground 5 hours later.

[Quixotic1]

Pretty small slight area.  Odd.

 

 

[brettjrob]

Gorgeous supercells with some tornado potential would've been almost a slam dunk in the WNW flow today if we had even mid-upper 50s dew points in place for the Red River Valley. Instead, we'll be lucky to get initiation, and LCLs will be ~2000 m leading to strong cold pools and outflow dominance.

[hazwoper]

Hey all.  Philly forum guy here checking in.  I have excepted an offer for a new job in Houston and will be moving the family int he dead of summer (that should be fun).  Looking forward to tracking storms and canes with eveyone (but I'll miss my Nor'easters).

 

Not sure where to ask questions, so I figured I'd put it here.  Thinking of living in te Woodlands cause the wife will be home with kids and my company will pay for the bus pass.  Anyone here from the Houston metro care to comment on The Woodlands?

[wall_cloud]

I'm not from the Houston area but I did spend a few months there about 12 years ago.  The Woodlands is one of the nicest areas in the metro area IMHO.  The population is exploding and property is expensive.  The median household income for that area is double that of many of the surrounding areas.  

[Ed Lizard]

Woodlands is nice, although a solid 45 minute to hour commute into downtown each day once you get onto I-45, if you're working there.  Some days, 90 minutes or more.  You can pay a few dollars for the Hardy, it'll knock 15 or 30 minutes off I-45.

 

I think the tall pines did pretty well in a high end Cat 2 in 2008.

 

You will come to hate the monster that lives between 850 mb and 700 mb in Spring  and gets stronger whenever an apparent thunderstorm outbreak is approaching.  Sometimes slayed in Waco, College Station and Huntsville, rarely in Houston.

[hazwoper]

Thanks guys.

 

Ed, what is this showing me here (what is the monster)?  I am sorry, I am more used to deciphering these plots in winter weather conditions and have no clue what-so-ever as to what it is showing me here LOL

[Ed Lizard]

Thanks guys.

 

Ed, what is this showing me here (what is the monster)?  I am sorry, I am more used to deciphering these plots in winter weather conditions and have no clue what-so-ever as to what it is showing me here LOL

The monster is the warm, dry layer off the higher elevations to the Southwest, that tend to form a cap of forged steel to thunderstorm initiation, especially in March and April when the cool shelf waters of the NW Gulf cause higher dewpoint air from the Southern Gulf to form coastal fog and low clouds just inland, that are slow to mix out under the cap, and further ensure that the surface probably won't be warm enough to make it close on the cap.

 

When the Mexican highlands are dry, the cap is extra strong, and only either 'bowling ball' cutoffs or negatively tilted troughs at 500 mb seem to allow winds 850-70 mb t have enough of a South versus Southwest origin that the cap is weak enough to break.

 

A vigorous storm system can weaken a moderate cap to allow storm initiation, no cap at all produces too much convection too early in the day for severe weather up where they get severe weather, like Dallas.  Lake Charles is closer, but CRP seems to better reflect the usual SETX capping situation.

 

It may rain tomorrow NE of Houston and in Louisiana, NAM is in its window and is dry, SREF means and GFS both ballpark a tenth tomorrow, and then cool, dry, windy weather, making Sunday a 'red flag day' for elevated wildfire risk for much of Texas.  

[Quixotic1]

Hey all.  Philly forum guy here checking in.  I have excepted an offer for a new job in Houston and will be moving the family int he dead of summer (that should be fun).  Looking forward to tracking storms and canes with eveyone (but I'll miss my Nor'easters).

 

Not sure where to ask questions, so I figured I'd put it here.  Thinking of living in te Woodlands cause the wife will be home with kids and my company will pay for the bus pass.  Anyone here from the Houston metro care to comment on The Woodlands?

The Woodlands is an excellent choice.  Take it for what its worth as I live in the Dallas area but I've family in The Woodlands.  

[Srain]

Hey all.  Philly forum guy here checking in.  I have excepted an offer for a new job in Houston and will be moving the family int he dead of summer (that should be fun).  Looking forward to tracking storms and canes with eveyone (but I'll miss my Nor'easters).

 

Not sure where to ask questions, so I figured I'd put it here.  Thinking of living in te Woodlands cause the wife will be home with kids and my company will pay for the bus pass.  Anyone here from the Houston metro care to comment on The Woodlands?

Welcome to SE Texas, hazwoper. Southern Montgomery County is much like NW Harris County, growth wise. The area is a bit different from my side of town as you'll be in the Pines where as my location is more of the Katy Prairie and a bit newer development wise. One thing you'll learn very quickly is our traffic issues, but all in all there are worse places to call home. I tend to be a bit biased because I was born here in Houston and have experienced the rapid growth of the area over the past 50+ years. Good luck on the move down and welcome to our part of the world!

[DoctorMu]

Welcome to SE Texas, hazwoper. Southern Montgomery County is much like NW Harris County, growth wise. The area is a bit different from my side of town as you'll be in the Pines where as my location is more of the Katy Prairie and a bit newer development wise. One thing you'll learn very quickly is our traffic issues, but all in all there are worse places to call home. I tend to be a bit biased because I was born here in Houston and have experienced the rapid growth of the area over the past 50+ years. Good luck on the move down and welcome to our part of the world!

 

Yeah, the Woodlands and areas N through Huntsville and east (Piney Woods) remind me as much some of the Carolinas, where I grew up, than the rest of Texas.  The area gest about 10 in of rain more than College Station, where the "Aggie Dome" set up in the summer (Mid and upper level cap) and shuts of the spigot...blocking the sea breeze around Navasota.  Spurious and unusual cold fronts during the warmer parts of the year peter out before Hearne so we don't see precip from those ether.

 

The good news is that you can actually do some gardening in the Woodlands.  Our water in CLL is alkaline, and there's not much we can do besides keep the grass alive, plant boxwoods, hollies, and Indian Hawthrone - that's the menu.  If a new tree is not planted in October, via con Dios..  You should know we're still in the general grip of a long term drought (possibly up to a decade).  The winter of 2011-2012 helped a great deal, but we have had only about 2 in of rain since Jan 9 this winter season.  Hoping that severe season and popcorn shower season (i.e., May) bring some wet stuff or we're in for a miserable and perhaps dangerous (fires) summer.

 

Welcome!

[Ed Lizard]

SETX  SPC moisture convergence mesoanalysis does show front as something of a focus at the surface' date=' which helps some.

MUCAPE over 1000 J/Kg here in Houston area.  Our surface convergence may be beneath the cap, the 20Z short term forecast warm nose is well above the wind shift ad LFC is about 600 mb, or about 4000 meters above the surface.  Even SHV sounding shows a warm nose above the near surface inversion, ie, the warm sector aloft there is capped.  Or the showers around there are based above about 750 mb.

Hoping main front briefly breaks the cap, but models not gung ho.

[/quote']

[hazwoper]

Thanks again everyone!  We are a bit nervous about the move, but excited as well.  I am focusng on The Woodlands because I like what it has to offer for my wife and kids.  The opportunity is a really good one with a healthy raise and other perks like bonus that I don't have up here in PA.  It is crazy how much cheaper it is all around to live down there (even in The Woodlands).  My wife has worked since we have been married and now she will get to stay home with the kids and really be a part of their lives moreso than here in PA.  I have also thought about Kingwood due to the fact that the houses are a bit cheaper and the traffic not as bad but my company is going to pay for my bus pass so taking the Woodlands Express will be a no brainer.  I also have a flexible schedule, so I can go in early and leave early to try and avoid the mess on 45.

 

One of the things I am dreading (besides the endless summer heat) are the bugs.  I hate bugs and my oldest son has a bit of a phobia about them.  Is it really that bad?  I understand you have to have some sort of special treatmnt to keep them out of the house.  The way folks mention the bugs sounds like end of days type stuff LOL!

 

The hurricane season should be intersting for us (Sandy was quite a storm even as far inland as I am in PA).

[Ed Lizard]

Bugs in the house aren't much of an issue.  Fire ants on the lawn are nasty, but usually you can visibly see mounds.

[DoctorMu]

Bugs in the house aren't much of an issue.  Fire ants on the lawn are nasty, but usually you can visibly see mounds.

 

Amdro will kill the queens and the mound by direct application.  Broadcast Over N Out to control future mounds for a 2-pronged approach.  Over N Out used to feature filpronil which was used for flea collars.  It killed imported fire ants but spared the native ants.  Non-toxic to pets and people.   However, the EPA didn't renew its use (iffy downstream invertebrate effect cited)...so the OnO formula now uses Bifen, a more broad insecticide.  Most of the other stuff out there is worthless and just chases the mounds around the yard.

 

Just a note - the drought has made some mounds inconspicuous.  The mound is technically not a main entrance per se but their "garbage dump."  The nests are often under sidewalks and the street.

 

Some good news - mites have knocked down the killer bee population and they seem to be intermixing more.  In fact, the bee population overall is noticeably less, which is not so great for farmers, but bee keepers are doing their part for pollenation.  There are Crazy Raspberry Ants around, primarily near the coast, but Over n Out will take care of those as well.

 

Houston has more mosquitoes than College Station, but the drought has knocked down their population which is usually highest in Spring and Fall.

 

There are usually fewer yellow jackets that the east coast.  There are large and lazy red or black wasps around, but they are virtually never a threat.

 

There are far fewer roaches than the Carolinas or Florida or Louisiana.

 

We do have mating "love bugs" in the Spring and Fall, particularly from the Woodlands and east, but they are harmless to everything but auto paint.

[DoctorMu]

Lookout NW Harris.  There is potential for a frost or freeze tonight.  The wind might keep the temp up, but this is a real blue norther...

 

Red Flag Warnings are out... hope those new buds don't become desiccated or fried before they are frozen.

[Srain]

Lookout NW Harris.  There is potential for a frost or freeze tonight.  The wind might keep the temp up, but this is a real blue norther...

 

Red Flag Warnings are out... hope those new buds don't become desiccated or fried before they are frozen.

We may be spared tonight, but tomorrow night may well be a different story with that cold High right over us.

[CranberryWX]

Hey all.  Philly forum guy here checking in.  I have excepted an offer for a new job in Houston and will be moving the family int he dead of summer (that should be fun).  Looking forward to tracking storms and canes with eveyone (but I'll miss my Nor'easters).

 

Not sure where to ask questions, so I figured I'd put it here.  Thinking of living in te Woodlands cause the wife will be home with kids and my company will pay for the bus pass.  Anyone here from the Houston metro care to comment on The Woodlands?

We're moving here too. Already did the house hunting and chose a new development north of the Woodlands. Yep, longer commute, but more of a rural feel. School system is smaller too. We interviewed several schools and decided on the Montgomery ISD.

Most of the people on my soon to be new street have moved out of the Woodlands for various reasons. We felt it was overpriced for older houses and the high schools are huge. Our house should be finished end of April and plan to move the household when school is out in June.

[LocoAko]

Drove through the worst dust storm I've ever seen while passing through Lubbock last night (though I admittedly haven't experienced very many ). Cell phone definitely didn't do a great job of capturing the severity of the conditions, as usual. I've always wanted to experience one but after that I think I'd be happy never seeing one again, lol. 

 

Pretty remarkable METAR... Gusting to 60MPH, 1/4 mile visibility, with a 72F/-14F split.

 

KLBB 232353Z 33039G52KT 1/4SM R17R/5000V6000FT DS BKN140 17/M18 A2965

 

[Dark Energy]

I bet your cars air  cleaner loved that.