Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[wxmx]

This has been a moisture starved winter at all levels.  

 

it probably doesn't take a met to answer me on this, but I am curious as to why are there winters where the warm nose is such a problem?  We've had three shots at winter storms this winter and only one of them hit (although you could say that the nose still won on the December event because most of the precip was freezing rain or sleet as opposed to snow).  We've had other winters not as cold where bang: it's snow even with surface temps in the mid to upper 30s.  Sunday in particular was galling because it was 28 when most of our precip fell, but all we got was large rain drops with chunks of ice in it.    

 

This may sound like a complaint but it's not.  The cold is great and will be remembered fondly when it's 105 out.  More of a curiosity question.   

To get rid of the 700-800mb warm nose you need lower than normal heights. This winter they have been near average around our neck of the woods, with a displaced PV south of the Hudson bay and a tighter heights gradient than normal. Yes, it had been colder, but mostly shallow arctic cold. During strong El Niños, for example, heights crash in the south, but source region is usually warmer, so you get cold 700-800mb temps, but lots of boundary layer issues.

[Srain]

A strong cold front is pushing across SE Texas at this hour and should be near the Coast by mid morning. Temperatures may struggle to reach 50 today before clouds advance across Texas as a short wave advances E toward Texas and the Southern Plains. Over running very light precip should develop tomorrow as a weak Coastal trough develops and the upper air disturbance arrives. Temperatures on Thursday may struggle to reach the low 40's as a thick cloud cover blankets our Region and cold air advection continues over a snow covered Central and Southern Plains. The fly in the ointment is that light QPF may develop on Thursday into Friday as the upper level system nears N Central Texas and a bit more lift is generated as surface temperatures drop to near or just below freezing mainly N of I-10 extending into Louisiana. While the precip is expected to be very light mist or drizzle, in the order of .01 to possibly .10 In some isolated locations, there is a chance that a few hours of freezing drizzle or very light freezing rain may accumulate on elevated surfaces. Across the Panhandle and N Texas, light snow should develop although amounts will be light. Travel issues are not expected at this time for Thursday into Friday morning, but Winter Weather Advisory criteria may be met.. The trend via the shorter range meso guidance as well as the Euro is a bit stronger short wave than originally expected earlier this week, so it is worth monitoring as the day unfolds into tomorrow. A major travel issue again is not expected, so just something to be aware of.

 

[ams30721us]

DFW:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1002 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS DESPITE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP QUITE
NICELY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC HAS IT ANALYZED STRONGER
THAN ANY OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY
HAVE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT FOR TOMORROW. THESE CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

DUNN
 

[Quixotic1]

To get rid of the 700-800mb warm nose you need lower than normal heights. This winter they have been near average around our neck of the woods, with a displaced PV south of the Hudson bay and a tighter heights gradient than normal. Yes, it had been colder, but mostly shallow arctic cold. During strong El Niños, for example, heights crash in the south, but source region is usually warmer, so you get cold 700-800mb temps, but lots of boundary layer issues.

 

Thanks for the answer.  That makes perfect sense.  Sounds like it's time for me to leave simple temp profiles and graduate to thicknesses/heights. 

[bubba hotep]

Could this become an untouchable record for Waco with a few more freezes this winter?

 

[bubba hotep]

FWD going all in for some snow!!

 

 

[bubba hotep]

00z NAM says, "No Dice!" and gives DFW a total of 0.00" of precipitation.

[Quixotic1]

20:1 ratios of 0.00 is how much?

Seriously, there's still hope. Despite the CAA, it is not as dry as most of these air masses have been and we've got a pretty strong SW approaching. banding is our keyword for the next 18 hours. Its either that or virga.

[CranberryWX]

A few snow flakes were falling when I left the house at 5:45 this morning. Here at work near Greenspoint sleet is hitting the office windows.

[Quixotic1]

SN here in NW Frisco at 13 degrees. Blowing right off the roads.

[Srain]

Started out as light sleet and snow mix in NW Harris County around 5:30 AM. Transitioned to moderate sleet and snow and ended as snow. Some accumulation on roofs, car tops and grassy surfaces as well as bridges and overpasses in Harris County. Montgomery County reporting light accumulation on surface streets as well as in the College Station area. IAH reported a mix of -ip/-sn, so we likely will get another official trace amount for the record books.

[bubba hotep]

16 w/ a flizzard here.... so finally some real flakes for this winter.

ETA: We've made it to dusting here

ETA2: Roads covered in snow now, we might squeeze out a 1/4"

[bubba hotep]

Radar looks like we are going to get another burst of snow here in a bit.  A few pics of what we have already gotten:

 

[bubba hotep]

 

[DoctorMu]

Snow, then Sleet in CLL.  Not much accumulation, but enough at 26°F to have Aggie sliding here and there on the roads.  No closures.  Hope someone sends their body work bills to the Chancellor.

[Quixotic1]

 

 

[bubba hotep]

Snow picking up again out here with some huge flakes mixing in, this looks more like mountain snow than what we typically see down here.  Still sitting at 16, IMBY

[Quixotic1]

Fat flakes starting to fall.  Returns look more impressive.  Now up to 2" according to FWD. 

[bubba hotep]

Fat flakes starting to fall.  Returns look more impressive.  Now up to 2" according to FWD. 

 

This is turning into a very nice overperformer! FWD nailed this one, there was basically no model support and they stuck to their guns.  This reminds me of January 15 (??) ’13 when not even FWD was predicting anything and we got 1.5”.

[bubba hotep]

From the looks of radar and what we already have on the ground, FWD may need to expand that 1 - 2" area

 

[Quixotic1]

This is turning into a very nice overperformer! FWD nailed this one, there was basically no model support and they stuck to their guns.  This reminds me of January 15 (??) ’13 when not even FWD was predicting anything and we got 1.5”.

 

Yep!  I missed that event as I was out of town, but I have video from that morning courtesy of my wife (with thundersnow).

 

FWD will call it as they see it.  They've been burned too many times before on either end of the spectrum.  Personally I like that they play it conservatively and we end up with surprises rather than hypotheticals that disappoint. 

[Quixotic1]

Snow, then Sleet in CLL.  Not much accumulation, but enough at 26°F to have Aggie sliding here and there on the roads.  No closures.  Hope someone sends their body work bills to the Chancellor.

 

And Charlie Brown boots it through the upright!

[bubba hotep]

Pouring cotton balls here now

[Quixotic1]

Back to powder here. Very pleased with how things worked out. 

[bubba hotep]

Back to powder here. Very pleased with how things worked out. 

 

Yeah, this has been pretty awesome.  Radar showing the back edge still extending back into Parker and Wise County!

 

ETA: It is amazing how dry this snow is, we must be getting like 20:1 or something out of this

[somethingfunny]

Before we turn into a national embarrassment of Atlanta-like proportions, here's some advice for driving in the snow.

How to drive in snow:

• Don't follow too closely

  Don't mash on your accelerator, brake, or steering wheel - be gentle any time you need to adjust your motion

  Don't perform any of those 3 maneuvers except for one at a time

  Accelerate before you reach an incline so you'll have momentum getting up a hill/bridge without much traction

  Stay in the right lane, other people can pass you if they want to try going faster

  Remember that some people on the road with you are really, really bad at driving and they'll probably kill you if you don't keep an eye on them.

  Use both hands and don't look at your phone, dummy!

This is a great opportunity to find an empty parking lot and practice spinning out and recovering from skids too.

[bubba hotep]

Before we turn into a national embarrassment of Atlanta-like proportions, here's some advice for driving in the snow.

How to drive in snow:

• Remember that some people on the road with you are really, really bad at driving and they'll probably kill you if you don't keep an eye on them.

 

 

This is the #1 thing that keeps me off the roads.  I've got plenty of hours driving in the snow b/w CO and DC but don't trust anyone else out there.

[msp]

like drmu mentioned, a dusting of snow and sleet here was enough to cause total chaos on the roads. 90% of the students in my first class this morning didn't make it to campus. TAMU head honchos once again ignore the weather.

 

i'll add that for the second or third time this winter, UT was delayed/closed while A&M was open despite similar conditions. 

 

view from my place:

[bubba hotep]

Radar is finally drying up but it looks like Dallas is going out with a bang.

[bubba hotep]

I'm going with about 1"