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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

A very complex and challenging weather week ahead with the first of a series of 4 winter weather events underway across our Region this morning across the Panhandle/N Texas and Oklahoma. Convective storms across W Texas moving NE should bring a chance of thunder snow/thunder sleet into the Wichita Falls area and slowly spread SE towards Ft Worth and the DFW area later this afternoon. As the day progresses, freezing rain and sleet may spread even further SE of the Metroplex as the models are not handling the current trends well at all regarding surface temps as well as the upper air profiles. This Winter Storm should slowly come to an end overnight with drier conditions early tomorrow. The cold front is crossing Metro Houston at this hour and should be near or just off the Coast by this afternoon.

 

Winter storm number 2 Is arriving along the California Coast this morning and is expexted to trek E across Northern Mexico tonight into tomorrow. This storm system is stronger and over running should start in earnest Monday night into Tuesday as a Coastal wave develops near Corpus Christi. There is a chance that freezing precip may develop across portions of the Hill Country before the precip comes to an end. In the wake of this potent Winter Storm that may drop 4-6 inches of snow across Oklahoma and some possible higher amounts near 8 to 10 inches, much colder air will plunge S into Texas on Wednesday.

 

A very progressive active pattern continues on Thursday as a short wave/upper air disturbance with its origin of an Arctic nature drops S into the Northern Mexico area S of Arizona/New Mexico. Along Coastal Southern Texas a Coastal Low is being suggested which increases over running precip Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with the temperature profiles as well as upper air analysis at this extended range. Temperatures are expected to be in the single digits to low teens across Oklahoma Thursday. The main upper storm system should arrive on Friday  across New Mexico and West Texas before finally exiting our Region next Saturday as the main trough/upper air features exit E. A word of caution. This is a very complicated and complex weather pattern and all interests should continue to monitor and expect day to day changes as events and additional data become available. This looks to be a wild weather week across our Region.

 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

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Radar trends are not encouraging, for IMBY, so far this morning but at least the freezing line continues to slowly creep south. 

 

ETA: Tempted to throw in the towel based on radar and the combo of what the RAP & HRRR are showing but 12z NAM and GFS say that we will get the bulk of our precipitation between 18z - 00z.  So still holding out hope…

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Looks like Mineral Wells is about to get hammered and then Grandbury up to Decatur.  Maybe that line can hold together as it drags NE and back build so that the tail drags across the northern burbs later this afternoon :weenie:

 

ETA:  We are torching IMBY @ 33.5 ugh

 

ETA2: Radar is looking better for DFW and we have dropped back to 32.5 IMBY

 

ETA3: It looks like the best we might get is a rain/sleet mix...

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

FWD just upgraded Parker County to a Winter Storm Warning. Based on Radar trends, they might do the same for Tarrant County as a band of heavy/convective sleet moves across.

 

ETA: Rain is mixing with sleet here in Arlington, but very light with surface temp of 33°F (according to my truck). Dewpoints across Tarrant County range from 27°F in northwest sections to 31°F here in Arlington.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

*Might* have heard a pinger or two on the way to buy chips and popcorn for a big football game. Might.

A sleet pellet or two falling well above freezing doesn't mean much. If I even heard what I might have heard.

Friday HOU ice storm still has a (small) chance based on Euro and recent warm bias, and 12Z GFS has a FUNderstorm signal beyond the resolution chop, mid month.


And even a cold rain is rain, and I hate drought.

That is all.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Morning update from Jeff:

 

Sunday’s cold front has pushed well into the Gulf this morning with cold and cloudy conditions across the entire region.

 

North winds still ongoing this morning helping keep the cold air flowing southward off the snow covered central plains. Next storm system is clearly noted in water vapor images coming ashore over southern California and will arrive across the state of TX tonight into Tuesday. No longer expect the warm frontal boundary to push inland, but it could at least get close to the coast. With this in mind think we will see mainly light rain and showers…early Tuesday…similar to yesterday as lift and moisture increases.

 

While models attempt to show some clearing today, moisture is trapped in the frontal inversion and many times this is hard to mix out until the inversion breaks. Think clouds will be very slow to break up if at all and this will have a direct impact on high temperatures. If we stay cloudy highs will only reach the mid 40’s, if the sun does break out this afternoon highs could reach the lower 50’s.

 

Storm system on Tuesday will be fast moving and expect rain chances mainly in the morning with a good deal of snow expected across the southern plains into the central plains…which could become very important for our late week forecast. Expect rain chances to end fairly quickly on Tuesday afternoon and may even see a brief period of clearing as a strong more “arctic” like air mass pours into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday.

 

Late Week Storm System:

Yet another in the series of storms moving ashore on the west coast will impact TX toward the end of the week. This is where the forecast gets somewhat interesting as there will be a lot at play come Thursday and Friday across the region. First will be the cold air mass which arrives on Wednesday. This air mass does not look overly cold, but with a large developing snow pack over the central plains this week…think forecast models are warming the incoming air mass too much as it pushes southward over the upstream snow cover. Next storm system begins to approach the state on Thursday with increasing moisture being forced into the cold air mass. Given the dry surface layer think it will take a period of time for precipitation to start to reach the ground as the air mass will have to saturate from aloft to the surface. Should start to see light rain/drizzle reach the surface Thursday evening. Coastal trough developing off the lower TX coast on Thursday night and only slowly moves up the coast on Friday will help to spread moisture inland from the coast. Current thinking is that this will be mainly light rainfall and drizzle.   

 

Critical factor then becomes surface air temperature Thursday night into Friday morning. GFS has both CLL and IAH falling to 30 degrees Friday morning with a significant warm layer of air above the surface. This is yet again pointing toward a freezing rain/freezing drizzle profile for potentially part of the region. Since we are still several days away from any potential event and the models have not been showing very good agreement over the last 48 hours….will keep everything rain for the period from midnight to noon on Friday at this point, but the potential is there for some degree of winter precipitation across portions of SE TX toward the end of the week.      

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

From SHV:

 

1044MB HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
WED/THU TIME FRAME BUT THAT DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY...DESPITE THE COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR REGION. WHILE MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS AGREE ON THE FLOW ALOFT...THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS ON
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND YOU GUESSED IT...
PRECIPITATION TYPES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND
HAVE CONFINED THE SNOW PROBABILITY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH
RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...CRITICAL
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SCENARIO ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA WITH SNOW AGAIN ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AND JUST RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN THIRD. WE SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO TRANSITION THE I-20
CORRIDOR TO JUST RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES BUT FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
ENOUGH ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FOR A WIDESPREAD COLD RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION WITH A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT AREAWIDE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS DEVELOPED WITH A BLEND OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/CMC MODELS WITH A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE
PLACED ON THE ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THESE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT AS TO PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME... PRECIP
AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE EXCESSIVE WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT
BUT IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY HAVE TO BE GIVEN THE PRECIP TYPES SO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT NEARS.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION THIS MORNING FWD...HGX. PRELIMS
TO FOLLOW...13.

 

From DFW:

 

REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER AT THE END OF THE
WEEK:

THE BROAD PATTERN: MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT INDICATING
THAT TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL SPREAD FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
THE CWA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE CANADIAN AIR IS IN
PLACE GIVING US SOME CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THAT THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER THAN THE SECOND...WHICH IS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE FIRST
TROUGH BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN THE CANADIAN AIR MASS BEING IN PLACE
AND LARGELY UNMODIFIED /I.E. STILL REALLY COLD/ IS HIGHER. HOWEVER
A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH MEANS WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE REGION. BECAUSE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM
AND LIFT IS NOT AS STRONG...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REALIZE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST/THURSDAY TROUGH.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE SOME
20 POPS IN PLACE WITH A MENTION OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
LATER FORECASTS OF COURSE. DID WANT TO POINT OUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN THOUGH AS EVEN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S COULD CAUSE TRAVEL HAZARDS.

MODELS INDICATE THAT WE HOLD ON TO SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
BEHIND THURSDAYS UPPER TROUGH AS THE LARGER AND STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH MAKES A DIVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. OUR CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE PROBABLY HIGHER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
SIMPLY DUE TO THE STRONGER FORCING AND ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO
THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT ARRIVES. HOWEVER THIS ADVECTION WILL MODIFY
THE COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NECESSARY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. IT SEEMS LOGICAL
THAT IF THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WE WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAN WE WILL IF
IT IS SLOWER AND IMPACTS US DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS SECOND UPPER TROUGH VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING
DAYS AS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PLAY HOST TO THE
DREADED PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION ZONE PORTION OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Latest guidance keeps DFW Airport at or below freezing until Saturday afternoon. Guidance is also coming in quite cold for Thursday morning with wind chills dipping below zero. Quite the cold spell!

To me, that is what is so frustrating about all this. I've been confident in a cold Feb for a while and then the "wet" signal started showing... So much potential but everything has just been out of whack. Some changes here and there and we would be building snowpack this week lol

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

This has been a moisture starved winter at all levels.  

 

it probably doesn't take a met to answer me on this, but I am curious as to why are there winters where the warm nose is such a problem?  We've had three shots at winter storms this winter and only one of them hit (although you could say that the nose still won on the December event because most of the precip was freezing rain or sleet as opposed to snow).  We've had other winters not as cold where bang: it's snow even with surface temps in the mid to upper 30s.  Sunday in particular was galling because it was 28 when most of our precip fell, but all we got was large rain drops with chunks of ice in it.    

 

This may sound like a complaint but it's not.  The cold is great and will be remembered fondly when it's 105 out.  More of a curiosity question.   

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