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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

12z ECMWF coming in with 2 inch accumulations for DFW for Sunday into Monday. 18z NAM also coming in as aggressive as the 12z. Question remains is this snow or sleet. Little hard to tell yet and will make difference between Winter Storm Warning or Winter Weather Advisory. I still feel with residual moisture on roadways and sleet a possibility that 1/4 inch criteria of ice may be met, but it will be a close call.

 

FWD just released a pretty strongly worded Special Weather Statement for Tarrant and Dallas counties; although the AFD was pretty pessimistic.

 

If we can get this system to slow down into much of Sunday night, we have it made and it would set the stage for the rest of the week to be interesting!

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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If we can get this system to slow down into much of Sunday night, we have it made and it would set the stage for the rest of the week to be interesting!

 

 

 

I think that will be the hard part given how progressive things look. 

 

The GFS has been locked in on frozen precipitation next weekend.  This could be an interesting week of model watching.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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The trend is our friend.

I always prefer to be on the northern fringe vs the southern, you can take the weenie out of the Mid Atlantic but you can't take getting burned over and over out of the weenie lol!

We don't need much of a shift south and I bet at least one model run between now and Sunday gives us something to hug.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

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I always prefer to be on the northern fringe vs the southern, you can take the weenie out of the Mid Atlantic but you can't take getting burned over and over out of the weenie lol!

We don't need much of a shift south and I bet at least one model run between now and Sunday gives us something to hug.

Yep. We definintely get more chances and higher totals, though some of the heaviest historical events have been south. Way south.

As a weenie, The suspense always kills me.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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Unless we see a nice SE trend today it looks like DFW will be on the wrong side of a pretty tight gradient for snow.  The 12z NAM looks ever so slightly S but probably no more than run-to-run variation, unless we see another small bump in the right direction with each run today, then we might have a trend.  Now to wait for the rest of the 12z data. :weenie::cry:

 

ETA:  The SREF has been tending wetter overall from 21z yesterday to 9z today but total snow looks depressing unless you put weight in the few  "members" that give us snow....

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Srain

Srain

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I suspect as the week ahead progresses we will see two chances of Winter Weather across our Region before the week is done. The next Pacific short wave looks a bit stronger and with a new snow cover across the Central/Southern Plains, the chances only increase of less air mass modification. The Wednesday into early next Saturday strong Arctic short wave looks to offer significant forecast challenges as much colder air entrenches most of the Region and a strong Coastal low develops on Thursday. Over running moisture and the cold core nature of that 5H disturbance is going to give the guidance fits until around Tuesday or Wednesday. Areas of S Central/SE Texas into Louisiana may not escape the wintry mischief during the late week time frame. The models are notorious for under estimating the depth of the Arctic cold air mass and usually play catch up this far S in such a pattern. Good luck N Texas tonight. It looks like a very interesting week ahead as we are in climatology 'Prime Time' across our Region for Winter Storms all the way to the NW Gulf Coast.

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

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The FWD forecasted accumulating snowline is literally a stones throw away. Ugh.

Bubba, you're right about the cold air overperforming. Front was in early and farther south than anticipated. i'll take that as a good sign.

(further? Farther?)

 

Naturally, the only time arctic air underperformed in CLL was on Tuesday when the Baja low snuck by us... without the fanfare in Baton Rouge or the ridiculous snow/icepocalypse in ATL.  Lucy snatched the snow football away from us again. :axe:

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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The FWD forecasted accumulating snowline is literally a stones throw away. Ugh.

Bubba, you're right about the cold air overperforming. Front was in early and farther south than anticipated. i'll take that as a good sign.

(further? Farther?)

Temp has been steadily dropping up here. Need that to continue and the 18z models to continue the baby steps trend of colder and east with the axis of heavier precipitation.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

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Naturally, the only time arctic air underperformed in CLL was on Tuesday when the Baja low snuck by us... without the fanfare in Baton Rouge or the ridiculous snow/icepocalypse in ATL. Lucy snatched the snow football away from us again. :axe:

Think you're going to get another shot at the football this week, Charlie Brown.

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

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FWD just issued Winter Weather Advisory for Tarrant and Dallas counties. If more sleet gets involved tomorrow, they might need to upgrade later to a Warning. Feel that NWS is a little too warm on temps (course they have been all winter on every Arctic intrusion), based on what I'm seeing on all the models.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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My hope is for measurable SN. 2" would be great. Like FWD, i think the line between getting shutout and getting clobbered (in a southern plains sense).will be a small one.

 

I'm pulling for a solid 1", something that will look nice coming down and the kids can enjoy.  Norman looks like they are being a bit more aggressive with totals, esp. if you extrapolate their 2 – 5” zone to the S/SE.  :weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

 

dmyx4z.png

 

 

Looks like it is going to come down to mesoscale features that the models probably don't have a handle on at this point.  Maybe once the RAP gets in range later this evening we will start to be able to pick up on some potential trends.  Also, 15z SREF continues trending higher QPF, gets DFW to 0.50” and areas east up over 0.60”

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

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I'm pulling for a solid 1", something that will look nice coming down and the kids can enjoy.  Norman looks like they are being a bit more aggressive with totals, esp. if you extrapolate their 2 – 5” zone to the S/SE.  :weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

 

dmyx4z.png

 

 

Looks like it is going to come down to mesoscale features that the models probably don't have a handle on at this point.  Maybe once the RAP gets in range later this evening we will start to be able to pick up on some potential trends.  Also, 15z SREF continues trending higher QPF, gets DFW to 0.50” and areas east up over 0.60”

 

This has me concerned because I think the predominant precip type for DFW is going to be sleet not snow. If we get this much in sleet we meet Winter Storm Warning criteria and this is going to be one big mess. There was a great FWD AFD discussion about slant-wise conditional instability enhancing sleet and snow rates.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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This has me concerned because I think the predominant precip type for DFW is going to be sleet not snow. If we get this much in sleet we meet Winter Storm Warning criteria and this is going to be one big mess. There was a great FWD AFD discussion about slant-wise conditional instability enhancing sleet and snow rates.

 

My biggest fear is that we get the temps we need but not the precipitation.

 

ETA: After going up a bit this afternoon, we are down to 44 IMBY

 

ETA2: Down to 42 IMBY

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

000
FXUS64 KFWD 020304
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
904 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
THE ONLY THING OF NOTE ON THE 00Z NAM WAS A SLIGHTLY QUICKER
TEMPERATURE DROP SUNDAY. IF THIS VERIFIES IT WOULD MEAN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE CURRENT WARNING AND
ADVISORY. THEREFORE...WE WILL ADD GRAYSON COUNTY TO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. WE WILL ALSO ADD LAMAR...HUNT AND DELTA TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SINCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCURRING
EARLIER SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS ALL AVAILABLE DATA AS IT COMES IN AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY

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