Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[Ed Lizard]

Yeah, definitely disappointing.  Only thing we got today was cars encased in ice.  No fun.  I might just play Ed's game of pessimism for the next one.  

 

That said, bring on some upper 60s and 70s.  If we are going to keep missing on any real winter weather, it might as well be nice out.  Additionally, the palms around town are looking decimated.  These repeated cold outbreaks aren't doing any good for the city's vegetation.

I was plenty optimistic, as I recall, for the 2009 snow miracle inch.

[1900hurricane]

One thing I have noticed across all the latest runs of the mid-range operationals (GFS, CMC, ECMWF) is a potent and possibly negatively tilted shortwave coming out of the Baja region with some brutal cold air coming south behind said trough. Week plus forecasts must always be written in pencil, but it appears that we may be seeing some strong storms followed by very cold air in the not too distant future.

[wxmx]

Freezing rain and sleet mix. I was disappointed by 0z and short term models...but precip started to fall at a good pace....probably a 1/4 inch, mostly liquid, though, as I said, now is freezing rain (-1C here) and sleet mixed in.

[wxmx]

Kind of a bust here...no snow, about 0.4" QPF, of which about 0.25" was FR and IP, and it was front loaded, as precipitation shut down around 2am...it's a rare sight still, so I had fun while it lasted. Nice to see palm trees with their palm leaves/branches dragged down by the ice, and glazed sleet on many surfaces. Most precipitation was shunted east. Temps fell to around 28F when it was sleeting.

 

Moral of the story...Baja lows are a b**ch.

[Ed Lizard]

BTW, let wxmx and reliable models agree on snow IMBY, and I am not a negative nelly, or as I was accused of another board, pressimistic hoping the weather gods will punish me with a blizzard.

 

I am just a go snow or go home guy for the rest of this Winter, and welcome a 50 or 60 knot TS landfalling in NWS HGX CWA this Summer, or to make Josh and wxmx and Josh happy, a Cat 3 in CRP area or a Cat 4 in BRO.

[1900hurricane]

FWD already starting to look at what I was mentioning above.

 

 

"We spent the month of January stuck in a drier than normal pattern, but the upper level weather pattern is set to change by next week. Upper level storm systems will move in from the Pacific and provide the region with good chances of precipitation as Gulf moisture interacts with a cold front. Wintry precipitation will be possible where it is cold enough behind the front. Most of the winter precipitation is expected to be north and northwest of North Central Texas, but it could affect our region by the middle to latter part of next week if the cold front is strong enough."

--NWS Fort Worth

[DFWWeather]

FWD already starting to look at what I was mentioning above.

 

 

"We spent the month of January stuck in a drier than normal pattern, but the upper level weather pattern is set to change by next week. Upper level storm systems will move in from the Pacific and provide the region with good chances of precipitation as Gulf moisture interacts with a cold front. Wintry precipitation will be possible where it is cold enough behind the front. Most of the winter precipitation is expected to be north and northwest of North Central Texas, but it could affect our region by the middle to latter part of next week if the cold front is strong enough."

--NWS Fort Worth

 

The ECMWF is hitting a major winter storm across much of Texas hard next week with the storm system coming out of the Bering Sea as I mentioned above. We are talking multi-inches on this model and the Abilene area NWS forecast discussion talked about it quite a bit, although they are calling it an outlier for now. This model is showing this on both the deterministic and control runs and has been doing so for several runs. It all depends on which model is correct. The 12z GFS is much more progressive with this storm, but has a secondary strong storm coming in behind it for later next week producing wintry weather. This leads me to believe the GFS may be trending more in the direction of the ECMWF. The Canadian looks to be leaning more toward the ECMWF. The upper air pattern is very conducive for wintry weather in our area next week. It is going to be interesting !!!

[Srain]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1103 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 01 2014 - 12Z WED FEB 05 2014


...HEAVY SNOW & ICE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST...


THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE DURING THE PAST FEW
DATA CYCLES. THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLESOME NOW
THAT THE FLOW REGIME IS CONDUCIVE TO MUCH WETTER STORM SYSTEMS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ECENS AND CMCE
MEANS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RELY UPON FOR A SYNOPTIC BACKBONE TO
THE PATTERN. THAT PATTERN FEATURES A RETURN TO DRIER, MEAN RIDGING
IN THE WEST--DESPITE THE SPLITTING OF ENERGY INTO THE
SOUTHWEST--AND A BROAD, MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE KEY TO WHETHER MOST OF THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATIONS FALLS EAST OR WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS IS THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THE
ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE IS FAIRLY SPLIT WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT
SIGNIFICANT PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OCCURS OVER
THE MIDWEST. FOR NOW, IT SEEMS MOST PRUDENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HAZARD IMPACTS ACROSS THE RANGE OF REGIONS.


CISCO
 

[1900hurricane]

Speaking of today's 00Z ECMWF (for fun only):

 

 

[Quixotic1]

If that were to verify, we'd be talking almost annual record totals at DFW.  Record is 17.6 in 77-78 with 17.1 in 2009-10. 

[Srain]

The 12Z Euro was further N into Oklahoma with the snow and also further N and weaker with the 5H low and trended a bit faster. Meanwhile I'd keep an eye on the building snowpack across the Central Plains late week. We have seen little in the way of snow with the month long dry NW flow aloft and little in the way of moisture.

[bubba hotep]

I like the looks of the pattern and the potential of the setup but it seems like things are trending the wrong way fast.  Oh, how far away this mornings 00z EURO seems....

 

From the afternoon AFD out of FWD:

 

ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT AND A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER/SNOW STORM IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR OUR CWA BASED ON THE
CURRENT MODEL DATA.

[1900hurricane]

I wouldn't worry about it yet. It's still a long way out and lots of things can change. Besides, the interesting stuff might be just beyond their forecast period, in the 7-10 day period.

[DFWWeather]

The 12Z Euro was further N into Oklahoma with the snow and also further N and weaker with the 5H low and trended a bit faster. Meanwhile I'd keep an eye on the building snowpack across the Central Plains late week. We have seen little in the way of snow with the month long dry NW flow aloft and little in the way of moisture.

 

 

I like the looks of the pattern and the potential of the setup but it seems like things are trending the wrong way fast.  Oh, how far away this mornings 00z EURO seems....

 

From the afternoon AFD out of FWD:

 

ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT AND A SIGNIFICANT

WINTER/SNOW STORM IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR OUR CWA BASED ON THE

CURRENT MODEL DATA.

 

I know the 12z ECMWF Deterministic has trended away some, but it should be noted that the 12z ECMWF Control run has not and is every bit as generous with snowfall across much of Texas. This could be a fluke run, but the pattern we are going into is very favorable for snow and ice in North Texas. Also the CFSV2 shows plenty of snowfall for much of Texas for next week. So, don't give up hope yet, threat very much still on the table.

 

On another note . . . The FWD NWS office busted again on lows this morning for DFW. The last update had a low of 20°F for DFW Airport and we hit 16°F. They have busted on all 5 times we hit the teens this winter. Another interesting note is Fort Worth Alliance Airport recorded a low of 8°F this morning, making it the coldest temp ever recorded since that location opened.

[DoctorMu]

...and they keep pulling me back...

 

[DFWWeather]

12z deterministic ECMWF still very aggressive with snow and ice over much of Texas next week from I-10 northward. It appears here in DFW we have three storms to deal with. One as early as Sunday, the Monday/Tuesday event, and then a third on Friday. Whether all of these produce ice or snow is uncertain until the systems get well sampled by the upper air network, but given pattern, snow and ice is a real possibility next week here.

[bubba hotep]

12z deterministic ECMWF still very aggressive with snow and ice over much of Texas next week from I-10 northward. It appears here in DFW we have three storms to deal with. One as early as Sunday, the Monday/Tuesday event, and then a third on Friday. Whether all of these produce ice or snow is uncertain until the systems get well sampled by the upper air network, but given pattern, snow and ice is a real possibility next week here.

 

Yep, watching the 500 mb maps roll in on each run and it is just like, "come on... so close...." we really don't need huge changes to get DFW in the game.

 

[Srain]

The warmer weather is welcomed after a week and a half of Wintry Weather events and much below normal temperatures as well as an extended dry NW flow aloft, but major changes are lurking.

 

The first in a series of Pacific storms will march beneath the developing Gulf of Alaska Ridge and provide some welcomed relief to drought parched Northern and Central California before trekking E across the Plains and dropping a verity of Wintry weather across the Central and Southern Plains, with liquid rain further S in the warm sector. A weak shallow frontal boundary will drop S and pull up stationary on Sunday along the Coast where a Coastal trough/low will develop. There is a chance of some rumbles of thunder as elevated storms along with over running rains develop Sunday night into Monday. A stronger upper air disturbance enters the picture across Southern California on Monday and begins to trek E in a very progressive flow. This feature may offer a bit more in storm chances over Louisiana and Southern Arkansas. A much stronger Winter Storm will cross the Southern Plains with this disturbance dropping additional snow across the Plains. In the wake of this storm system, much colder Arctic air will plunge S into Texas setting the stage for a potential later next week Winter Storm that will have its origin in the Arctic ~vs~ the Pacific. The upper air disturbance associated with the late next week wintry mischief potential appears to drop S from Siberia and cross Western Canada into the Great Basin. The various Global guidance have differing solutions, but the Euro has been extremely stable for the past 4-5 cycles suggesting a progressive flow and wintry mischief will develop across Central and SE Texas into SW Louisiana. The GFS and Canadian are suggesting a much slower ejection of this feature from Southern California/NW Mexico. The progressive flow has credence ~vs~ a slower moving system, but being a week out, we will need to monitor the trends over the next several days. All in all the Trough in the West and cold air building across our source Regions of Eastern Alaska/Western Canada raise an eyebrow. With the increasing moisture across the West into the Central/Southern Plains in the form of snow tends to favor much less in the way of air mass modification and certainly warrants attention in the day ahead.

 

[Ed Lizard]

HOU-  I am neither optimistic or pessimistic on Winter weather in a week.

Inside GFS higher resolution, that helps, but all the features are not in the radio sonde network yet.  Now, law of averages, it doesn't snow, but as has been seen before, the law of averages is just averages.  2004. 2008 and 2009 had snow in America's City, Houston.

I don't see anything on the NHC plan of the day as far as Pacific storm recon, which would add a day or three to better data.  Might be a day or two too soon to schedule dropsondes out there anyway.

 

The very fact that Dr. Doom, aka WeatherMan57 of the KHOU-TV 11 weather forum, has not dismissed this out of hand can only be seen as a good sign.

I will add, with my wife working Memorial Day and thus Aldine ISD ruining a three day weekend at the Popo Playa Party Pad in Galveston, the next snow day better be snow.  Ice is boring.  I would gladly trade 3 days at the beach for having to drive in an ice storm because my boss could drive 3 miles down Westheimer, a flat, surface street w/o bridges.

 

 

Another ice day, and she will probably work July 4th. 

 

This is IMBY.  Since the Super Bowl is not at Jerry World, it can ice in Dallas this weekend and I won't really care one way or the other.

[bubba hotep]

This is IMBY.  Since the Super Bowl is not at Jerry World, it can ice in Dallas this weekend and I won't really care one way or the other.

 

Why no care about us?

 

12z GFS looks a tad cooler at the surface but probably just run-to-run noise at this point.  It looks close for us in the northern burbs but areas just NW of DFW could be in for it.

[DFWWeather]

Why no care about us?

 

12z GFS looks a tad cooler at the surface but probably just run-to-run noise at this point.  It looks close for us in the northern burbs but areas just NW of DFW could be in for it.

 

For Sunday into Monday the ECMWF is much colder than the GFS. Pushes the freeze line well south of the Metroplex with temperatures in the teens Monday morning. The ECMWF has been way more consistent from run to run, and lets face it a much superior model. NAM looks a bit too warm, but I expect that may change. If sleet is predominant precip mode that could make all the difference.

 

Storm later in the week also looks interesting, but ECMWF came in much drier with that system. Its snowfall forecast is muddled by the fact it hangs on to the Sunday accumulations all week. If Sunday pans out for us it could change temperature profiles even for the Monday/Tuesday system.

[Ed Lizard]

Why no care about us?

 

12z GFS looks a tad cooler at the surface but probably just run-to-run noise at this point.  It looks close for us in the northern burbs but areas just NW of DFW could be in for it.

 

 

I care during FUN-derstorm season, since HOU usually doesn't have one.

 

EDIT TO ADD:

 

 

My Mom and two sisters, a BIL and a nephew and niece lives in Bedford, a brother lives in Irving, my sister already invoked me on FB about this, I recommended TV.

 

 

Now, put my family in a PDS tornado watch, or even a hatched hail or tornado area on a SWODY1, ad yes, I send an e-mail

[bubba hotep]

For Sunday into Monday the ECMWF is much colder than the GFS. Pushes the freeze line well south of the Metroplex with temperatures in the teens Monday morning. The ECMWF has been way more consistent from run to run, and lets face it a much superior model. NAM looks a bit too warm, but I expect that may change. If sleet is predominant precip mode that could make all the difference.

 

Storm later in the week also looks interesting, but ECMWF came in much drier with that system. Its snowfall forecast is muddled by the fact it hangs on to the Sunday accumulations all week. If Sunday pans out for us it could change temperature profiles even for the Monday/Tuesday system.

 

I don't have access to the Euro snowfall maps but it does look like it would get us a period of snowfall Sunday afternoon.

[wxmx]

Trough too far west...700mb issues guaranteed for C and S TX, even with a very cold high dropping south...also, jet doesn't look very moist, with just a weak shortwave rounding far NW. For this to change, we would need a deepening of the Aleutian low, pumping heights near the Washington/Canada border, pushing the trough to the east.

[wxmx]

I don't have access to the Euro snowfall maps but it does look like it would get us a period of snowfall Sunday afternoon.

You have

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

 

Some light snow Sunday afternoon...mostly because of warm boundary layer

[DFWWeather]

12z NAM forecasting 1/2 to 2 inches of snow/sleet across the DFW area. If it falls as sleet, Winter Storm Warning criteria will be met (as I think taking into account melting that 1/4 threshold would be met from sleet); otherwise Winter Weather Advisory for all snow. FWD just said they would be making changes this afternoon to the forecast package. If I were to guess, they are going to move the snow/ice line down to Hillsboro to Paris line, instead of northwest of Metro.

[Quixotic1]

12z NAM forecasting 1/2 to 2 inches of snow/sleet across the DFW area. If it falls as sleet, Winter Storm Warning criteria will be met (as I think taking into account melting that 1/4 threshold would be met from sleet); otherwise Winter Weather Advisory for all snow. FWD just said they would be making changes this afternoon to the forecast package. If I were to guess, they are going to move the snow/ice line down to Hillsboro to Paris line, instead of northwest of Metro.

Of course!  I'm traveling Monday. 

 

Nothing to back this up verification wise, but it seems as if the Euro has had a cold bias all winter, mostly to lack of snow cover but also the progressive nature of the pattern.  Some of the numbers it was spitting out were way too low.  That may not be the case for FWD, but it sure was north and east. 

[DFWWeather]

Of course!  I'm traveling Monday. 

 

Nothing to back this up verification wise, but it seems as if the Euro has had a cold bias all winter, mostly to lack of snow cover but also the progressive nature of the pattern.  Some of the numbers it was spitting out were way too low.  That may not be the case for FWD, but it sure was north and east. 

 

I tried to post, but moderator deleted. I get my model data from accuweather and can't repost the graphics. You'll need to consult whatever access you have to the NAM for verification. Kinda silly in a way as NAM data is all in the public domain.

 

As for the ECMWF, I agree it has had a cold bias this year and tends to flip flop more than I've ever seen it. I wondered if they made some changes to the model itself. The GFS, however, has had an unusual warm bias, especially in the extended.

[bubba hotep]

12z NAM Clown Maps are LOL'tastic crushing (relatively speaking) N. Dallas and Collin County with 2 - 4", I'm not sure if we can direct link Earl's site so I won't

[Ed Lizard]

If it isn't a PPV site, you can direct link maps with appropriate credit.