Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[wxmx]

06 and 12z NAM and GFS have trended drier...with a slightly slower s/w...OTOH, the 12z GGEM is a little faster with this disturbance, and significantly wetter than it's past 0z run...effectively switching places with the GFS

[Ed Lizard]

06 and 12z NAM and GFS have trended drier...with a slightly slower s/w...OTOH, the 12z GGEM is a little faster with this disturbance, and significantly wetter than it's past 0z run...effectively switching places with the GFS

 

 

For sake of the KHOU-TV forum, which model would you trust as being closest.  And have you seen the complete and utter destruction of New Orleans as portrayed by the NAM?

 

 

I will steal your analysis and post it there...

[wxmx]

For sake of the KHOU-TV forum, which model would you trust as being closest.  And have you seen the complete and utter destruction of New Orleans as portrayed by the NAM?

 

 

I will steal your analysis and post it there...

The GFS looks too dry, 0z Ukie and Euro, although not as wet as the latest Canadian, are a little closer to it than the GFS. Now, if we look at synoptics and stay away from models for a bit, there are reasons to lean one way or another.

 

We are currently on a non favorable MJO phase, and VP200 charts look what would be a dryish pattern. Also, to overcome such a dry low level air, you need some good lift and good moisture sources. OTOH, the disturbance looks to tap some very rich Pacific air, plus the low level high would favor some GoM  return flow...so unless it tries to close a low, the STJ looks pretty healthy and probably just enough to moisten the whole column on time to allow wintry precipitation. Like king Solomon, I'd go with a compromise, with room for some surprises for some people.

[Ed Lizard]

Stolen, attribution given, not technically plagiarism.

 

 

I smell bust, a local TV station pro forecaster just posted on his Face Book he is suspecting bust, but as any good TV station forecaster does, left himself wiggle room.

 

 

Already one howl of anguish and TV station pro-forecaster is an idiot.

 

I smell bust, but as a natural silver lining optimist, will leave room for 15 centimeters of partly to mostly cloudy

[msp]

I'm souring some on this event.  NAM and GFS look increasingly dry, as has been posted.  I'd gladly take an inch at this point, but I doubt we'll see much more than that at all.  East of here might not be bad though, not unlike last week where the Lake Livingston area got several times more snow than CLL. Am very curious what HGX will do with the watches and warnings.

[wxmx]

I feel your pain...I have seen how has the precipitation evaporated with each run... in my case there's still hope, but it will all depend on the exact evolution of the s/w, which can vary quite some even just hours from the onset of the event.

[Ed Lizard]

If I were TWC, Jim Cantore, or, preferably Stephanie Abrams, because I like her, are setting up in the Vieux Carre in New Orleans tomorrow for live shots.

 

 

Including mega-drunk tourists photobombing like mad.

[wxmx]

12z Ukie and Euro are similar to their 0z counterparts...maybe a tad drier around HOU, but not much...still show some wintry precip, especially around 18z. There will be ptype issues for sure...so I guess the farther north, the better for more snow, but it gets drier as well.

 

Back to IMBY, both models are a tad drier, but not by much...but the Euro compensates with more precip later in the morning of the 29th...the later, the better the chance of it falling as liquid, as the cold high will be retreating east, and warmer temps will make it's way here...still, it looks like a healthy surge of moisture (by that I mean 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch around here, with probaby half an inch to my south).

[Srain]

Texas State EOC is being activated this afternoon in support of an "increased readiness" for S Central and SE Texas. School closures being announced for Tuesday and Wednesday around the Houston Metro Area.

[wxmx]

Still dryish for SE TX from the 12z and 18z guidance...looks like the bulk of the precipitation will fall between early morning to noon tomorrow. The axis of the cold high has been crawling a bit west today, and that might have affected the flow of Gulf moisture.

 

IMBY, this displacement in the forecasts of the cold high has some interesting repercussions. First it's growing significantly colder for Wednesday morning (still some boundary layer issues, but much less than before), yesterday I was looking at 0 to -1C 850mb temps for a few hours only, with above freezing surface temps. Now models are -2 down to -5C 850C mb temps and 0 to -1C surface temps for a longer period of time. This implies drier air, but since my main producer is a mid/upper level disturbance, there should be good lifting and a healthy jet stream...there might be some low level dry air issues at first, but should be overcame on time.

 

18z GFS has gone back to a little faster disturbance, which gets me back some snow (from the dry 12z run). I'm now officially pumped up as this is the first time the latest models all show wintry precip, including snow. Mind you, not much, but even flying flurries for a couple of hours and a dusting would be fun down here.

 

Should be a decent change of pace from the 86F high of today, anyway

[wxmx]

0z guidance giving a few suprises...good suprises for a change. More progressive and a little farther north with the s/w...HOU is 'wetter', and MTY is much 'wetter' as well and colder. So far the NAM, but especially the GFS and GGEM dump some healthy QPF IMBY

[DoctorMu]

36°F with an 11°F dewpoint and just started raining.  One would expect the column to cool fast.  Some snow N of CLL about 35 mi

[Ed Lizard]

I don't know temp, sleeting at my house, near Veterans and 1960.

 

Driving to work, no choice. 

 

 

Wish me luck.

[CranberryWX]

My office closed...working from home today.

Currently light sleet/freezing rain at my location at 31F. Only freezing on metal surfaces at the moment, trace of sleet on the concrete deck around the pool.

It didn't fall below 32 until 6:30. Woke up at 4:30 and it was still 37, was about ready to go to work, but decided to wait.

[1900hurricane]

All been freezing rain and sleet here in College Station so far. Ice on a bunch of stuff, but not tons of it. Still somewhat treacherous to travel. Classes at A&M going on like normal.

[msp]

Pretty shocked TAMU didn't delay the start time. All other schools, colleges, and city governments in the area are opening at 10. Oh well, get to try to drive to campus in the ice.

[Ed Lizard]

Drive in not bad, although temps cold enough for frozen water, not just sleet, on car.

 

 

Just rain at Galleria, and even if it stays rain at Galleria, drive home North of BW 8 could be less fun if it doesn't end soon enough.

[CranberryWX]

Temp down to 29 with sleet changing back to freezing rain at times. Sleet is pinging against the north facing windows. Ice is building up on cold elevated surfaces, but the ground (street, concrete decking) is just wet for the moment. Ice build up is getting thicker that last Friday on the metal objects.

Hoping for at least a few snow flakes before it ends.

[wxmx]

In waiting mode here. Model consensus show between 0.2 to 0.5" of QPF  from roughly 9pm to 9am. At first it will probably start as light rain, but by 11pm sleet should mix in...hopefully some snow will find it's way, although there's the infamous 700 mb warm nose in there.  

 

[CranberryWX]

Ice on the rain gauge

[Ed Lizard]

From inside, looks just like raindrops landing in the puddles of the Galleria's top level parking lot.  Outside, can see random snowflakes mixed in with light sleet...

[Srain]

The HIRES NAM did well with this event across Central and SE Texas. While certainly not a major winter weather event of years past, it has caused a lot of travel issues across the Beaumont/Lake Charles area and further E into New Orleans. I had light freezing rain transition to light snow and sleet that actually accumulated on the roof tops and car tops. TXDOT did a great job of pre treating the roads last evening and sanded during the main event this morning. It is still sleeting here at this hour with some areas across Metro Houston reporting snow and sleet closer to the Coast S of I-10.

[wxmx]

Ok, now after this event ends for everybody, we should relax and wait the long wait for the next winter storm...which the Euro says is coming by day 9-10! 

[DFWWeather]

Today's 12z deterministic ECWMF has the ENTIRE state of Texas down into northern Mexico covered in snow and ice by the end of next week. When was the last time that happened - if ever? It is starting to look like things may be coming together for one heck of a winter storm across a large portion of the state.  Of course this all hinges on the fact that the Arctic air and storm system (currently located in the Bering Sea and forecast to be quite strong as it crosses Texas) come together across the state. This looks reasonable given the pattern next week and the retrograding trough. CPC is also forecasting a series of Arctic highs to come down, the strongest of which will occur toward the middle to latter part of next week. This should be about the time our storm system arrives!

[wxmx]

 

Latest 18z hires NAM

 

 

Many people will get caught off guard

[wxmx]

Today's 12z deterministic ECWMF has the ENTIRE state of Texas down into northern Mexico covered in snow and ice by the end of next week. When was the last time that happened - if ever? It is starting to look like things may be coming together for one heck of a winter storm across a large portion of the state.  Of course this all hinges on the fact that the Arctic air and storm system (currently located in the Bering Sea and forecast to be quite strong as it crosses Texas) come together across the state. This looks reasonable given the pattern next week and the retrograding trough. CPC is also forecasting a series of Arctic highs to come down, the strongest of which will occur toward the middle to latter part of next week. This should be about the time our storm system arrives!

Probably last time such a widespread storm occurred for both MX and TX was 1895. Jan 1967 had almost 50% of MX with snow

[bubba hotep]

Today's 12z deterministic ECWMF has the ENTIRE state of Texas down into northern Mexico covered in snow and ice by the end of next week. When was the last time that happened - if ever? It is starting to look like things may be coming together for one heck of a winter storm across a large portion of the state.  Of course this all hinges on the fact that the Arctic air and storm system (currently located in the Bering Sea and forecast to be quite strong as it crosses Texas) come together across the state. This looks reasonable given the pattern next week and the retrograding trough. CPC is also forecasting a series of Arctic highs to come down, the strongest of which will occur toward the middle to latter part of next week. This should be about the time our storm system arrives!

 

I've been on the February bandwagon for a longtime now and it better cash in

[Quixotic1]

I've been on the February bandwagon for a longtime now and it better cash in

Don't read the FWD AFD then.  They are being Debbie Downers.  Personally, I like the way it's shaping up and was surprised that to them, today's runs don't look as favorable as yesterday. 

 

I think the 76/77 - 79/80 time frame would be good one to see about widespread snow and ice across the region. 

[DoctorMu]

Have a tinge of far off hope...feeling a bit jaded after this bust.  Some kewl ice on the cars...but...

[msp]

Have a tinge of far off hope...feeling a bit jaded after this bust.  Some kewl ice on the cars...but...

 

Yeah, definitely disappointing.  Only thing we got today was cars encased in ice.  No fun.  I might just play Ed's game of pessimism for the next one.  

 

That said, bring on some upper 60s and 70s.  If we are going to keep missing on any real winter weather, it might as well be nice out.  Additionally, the palms around town are looking decimated.  These repeated cold outbreaks aren't doing any good for the city's vegetation.