Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[DoctorMu]

Buffalo, Madisonville reporting snow.  snow/sleet mix approaching Cypress.

 

Whole lotta dry over CLL 

[Quixotic1]

Think DFW will stay in teens tonight given partial cloud cover and although dp have dropped below zero and airmass is 5k feet deep. H85 temps are too warm for single digits. However, if 12z ECMWF is even remotely correct, the Arctic plunge early next week should get us to single digits. As I mentioned above, it has H85 temps approaching -15C at DFW.

Anybody notice that weird natrow warm area on some of the models that appears to ride along the southern rockies next week? Looks like CAD but a weird north to south component.

[DoctorMu]

blowing sleet/tiny snow mist in CLL.  Glazing could become frosting.

[msp]

blowing sleet/tiny snow mist in CLL.  Glazing could become frosting.

 

Yep, a frosting now on most of the cars as very light snow lands on the thin ice accumulation

[1900hurricane]

Dry slot is filling back in. Looks like some good stuff coming in from the west!

[DoctorMu]

Heavy mix of sleet/snow coming down...a hint of white on the lawn

[Srain]

Moderate sleet and snow in NW Harris County. All bridges/overpasses and flyovers quickly icing over. I-10 West bound from Houston completely iced over in Fayette County. Numerous vehicles trapped on flyovers across Metro Houston. Sleet/freezing rain mix in Webster, SE of DT Houston near NASA.

[Ed Lizard]

Big problems on US 290...first responders cannot reach accidents due to heavy ice.

 

From Steve's KHOU-TV 11 forum.  Jeff is an orange tagger, or pro met, and works for Harris County flood control and OES.
 

[Srain]

From Steve's KHOU-TV 11 forum.  Jeff is an orange tagger, or pro met, and works for Harris County flood control and OES.

No worries, Ed. This was just a 'trivial event'...

[Quixotic1]

Looks like everyone did pretty well!

[CranberryWX]

Currently 27 in my backyard. 0.65" total precip as of 7AM. 1/8 to 1/4" of ice depending on surface, trace of snow on roofs, cars and mulch.

I'm in no hurry to go to work...

Damn pic comes through upside down even though it's okay when I view it on the iPad.

[wxmx]

Some snow in the higher portions around Monterrey...the photo is about 20mi N of the city...cloud deck is too low, so I cant see much of the mountains, but it has been drizzling for  most of the night/morning, so I guess there's some snow in there, not that far up. Currently at around 34F

 

 

[1900hurricane]

It's 26*F here in College Station with a coating of ice/snow/sleet on everything, including all the roads. However, Texas A&M is going to open at 10 anyway, despite the fact that parts of 6 in town is closed due to traffic accidents. That's really shortsighted if you ask me, at least postpone until noon or so when the temps should start getting around freezing.

[bubba hotep]

Nice!

 

 

 

Also, things just keep looking better for Feb

[Quixotic1]

13 this morning. Not quite to the 10 we had at the beginning of the month.

[Srain]

The 12Z GFS has come into somewhat agreement with what the 00Z Canadian had suggested overnight. After a strong Arctic front arrives next Monday afternoon/evening when our temperature may drop to the low to mid 20's, a robust upper air disturbance drops ESE across Mexico and heads across the Southern half of Texas Tuesday evening/early Wednesday.

 

 

[DoctorMu]

It's 26*F here in College Station with a coating of ice/snow/sleet on everything, including all the roads. However, Texas A&M is going to open at 10 anyway, despite the fact that parts of 6 in town is closed due to traffic accidents. That's really shortsighted if you ask me, at least postpone until noon or so when the temps should start getting around freezing.

 

Since the Gov and BOR Occupied A&M administration, they've made very few good calls besides the SEC thing.  We're a diploma mill now.

 

Anyway, yes an idiotic decision not to wait until at least noon...particularly on a Friday

[DFWWeather]

The 12Z GFS has come into somewhat agreement with what the 00Z Canadian had suggested overnight. After a strong Arctic front arrives next Monday afternoon/evening when our temperature may drop to the low to mid 20's, a robust upper air disturbance drops ESE across Mexico and heads across the Southern half of Texas Tuesday evening/early Wednesday.

 

01242014 12Z GFS f96.gif

 

01242014 12Z GFS f102.gif

 

I expect the 0z ECMWF and yesterday's 12z to be more accurate. This next Arctic airmass is much colder than the current one and the trough axis is further west with cold air damming occurring lee side of the Rockies. There is also a slight left hook in 500mb on most models, which usually delivers a stronger cold airmass into Texas. This airmass will usher in much drier air that will be very difficult to overcome. Expect dewpoints in North Texas to fall well below zero with models advertising H85 temps anywhere from -12°C to -15°C. This may very well be the coldest air in years to hit North Texas. We will certainly be looking at a shot of lows reaching 8°F to 12°F in the Metroplex if this verifies. If we fall below 12°F at DFW Airport it will be the coldest air in 18 years, or since February 1996 when we it 8°F.

[msp]

Since the Gov and BOR Occupied A&M administration, they've made very few good calls besides the SEC thing.  We're a diploma mill now.

 

Anyway, yes an idiotic decision not to wait until at least noon...particularly on a Friday

 

Agreed on all counts.  Back in spring 2011 we got the whole Friday off for the same amount of snow and less ice.

[wxmx]

Getting some tingles wrt next even in a few days...The key is how strong the s/w gets while rounding the long wave trough...the CMC is the more bullish with it, hence it's the coldest/wettest further south and west, also for longer, as it slows down the trough. 12z GFS now shows this disturbance, but it's weaker, and goes thru the area at a faster pace, working it's magic farther east. The Euro is just cold, with little hint of a s/w disturbance. Overall, I like the trends.

[Portastorm]

Getting some tingles wrt next even in a few days...The key is how strong the s/w gets while rounding the long wave trough...the CMC is the more bullish with it, hence it's the coldest/wettest further south and west, also for longer, as it slows down the trough. 12z GFS now shows this disturbance, but it's weaker, and goes thru the area at a faster pace, working it's magic farther east. The Euro is just cold, with little hint of a s/w disturbance. Overall, I like the trends.

 

Hope those "tingles" have merit! 

 

We ended up with, technically less than 0.10" of a wintry slop here in Austin, but it was enough to encrust every elevated roadway and bridge in town and help cause more than 200 accidents in less than 24 hours.  It doesn't take much down here.  No snow here ... just had sleet and light freezing rain.

[Chinook]

Currently 27 in my backyard. 0.65" total precip as of 7AM. 1/8 to 1/4" of ice depending on surface, trace of snow on roofs, cars and mulch.

I'm in no hurry to go to work...

Damn pic comes through upside down even though it's okay when I view it on the iPad.

image.jpg

If your car is upside down, you definitely had too much ice.

[wxmx]

Euro Ens have a stronger s/w developing around Baja, very in line with the Canadian...as a result, axis of surface high as well as the cold associated with it is a bit farther west and colder to the south...by day 5, the ensembles are colder than the op, which is a feat by itself.

 

Also, 18z GFS shows the infamous s/w developing around Baja as well...it evens closes and cuts it off...and the result is colder farther south and west...and moisture starts to show farther west as well. We don't want it to cut off that far west neither...for MBY a few miles east (Sonora/Sinaloa/Durango), and for South, Central and south east TX, to slowly roll from MX to S TX.

 

As a precedent of the cutoff low near Sonora/Sinaloa/Durango and a strong arctic high rolling south down the plains we have Jan 9th 1967...last time Mexico city and Guadalajara had snow, and Monterrey had it's strongest snowstorm of the 20th century...but that's the extreme version, not really expecting a repeat.

[1900hurricane]

The trends in the direction of the CMC's solution is certainly intriguing. At the very least though, it should be brutal cold behind the next front.

[1900hurricane]

And then the 00Z NAM happened.

 

[wxmx]

Overnight low was supposed to bottom out at around 40F....currently is plummeting in the airport area and recorded the first official freezing (32F) of the season just now.

[bubba hotep]

And then the 00Z NAM happened.

 

 

 

Lol and it wouldn't take much of a N trend to get DFW in the game.  The 00z GFS says, "no dice" on that system but says, "hey, maybe you like the 4th & 5th better anyway" (IMBY speaking)

[wxmx]

And then the 00Z NAM happened.

 

 

GGEM sees the bet and raises it

[Quixotic1]

And then the 00Z NAM happened.

 

Dry slot from hell in there.  

[Ed Lizard]

90 minute drive to work on surface streets, after I call into work. I am watching KHOU, I see TranStar images.


My boss lives 3 or 4 miles from the Galleria, straight shot down Westheimer. Traffic is fine, he insists, when I call in about 9-ish.

Someone though I was downplaying everything by saying streets and overpasses. I wasn't. I forgot Shepherd has an overpass over Memorial because I never come that far, worst case Shepherd to I-10 if 45 is a disaster. My car needed work, frozen block of ice but my driveway and sidewalks, even when it was snowing, were just wet.

I figure, 30 mph, I'll probably live even if I wreck. Hence I drove Veterans/Shepherd to get to Galleria.