Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[wxmx]

First threat in awhile for Houston. Anybody besides steve excited? I know ed is steeling himself for disappointment but things are looking really good.

And 0z GFS will test Ed's will power before models truncation.

[wxmx]

Plus the suggested more expansive cold shot around day 6 could become more interesting if the long wave trough can tilt more positive.

[Quixotic1]

And 0z GFS will test Ed's will power before models truncation.

Ha. If that thing looks to verify 24 hours out, I might drive down for it.

[wxmx]

And the crazy uncle GEM shows what happens with a more positive tilted trough...I was too focused on the event this Thu/Fri that for the 12z run I missed the event next week...sheesh...0z looks like it will be similar to the previous run.

 

The cold is more expansive for that event because the source region is the Siberian arctic.

[Ed Lizard]

And 0z GFS will test Ed's will power before models truncation.

 

 

I am a fan of four day work weeks.  But yes, too far away.  Yet.

 

 

Friday, as light as precip will be, p-type critical to cancelling school.  Rain below freezing is only chance of an excuse to miss work...

My wife teaches, I'll make up a reason to stay home or at least go in late.  Like I did February 2011.

[Ed Lizard]

If only I trusted the NAM at any time range, any colder and it is sleet, this would be a school canceller with freezing rain.

 

 

Did I mention I have decided even at 36 hours, shallow cold air layers and better resolution and all, I still usually trust the GFS more?

[Srain]

The overnight guidance has trended in favor of a fairly signifanct Winter Weather event for SE Texas. WPC Senior Forecaster Paul Kocin has placed the Houston Metro Area with a 10% chance of seeing up to 1/4 inch of Ice that would create major travel and transportation issues -vs- powerline problem during the day on Friday. Light snow may develop across portions of Central Texas and extended as far S as the I-10 Corridor. Light freezing rain/sleet is likely further S from just N of Brownsville to the Coastal Counties along the Middle and Upper Texas Coast and extend further E into SW Louisiana and possibly as far E as Baton Rogue. TXDOT has spent the night deicing area bridges/overpasses/flyovers, but travel during the late night hours of tonight extending into Friday afternoon/evening should be discouraged and may be very dangerous. Stay tuned to future updates. Winter Storm Watches may be replaced with Winter Storm Warnings today and Winter Weather Advisories where lesser amounts may be expected in this evovling Winter Storm Situation.

[Srain]

Detailed update from Meteorologist Jeff L (Harris County Flood Control District)

 

***Impactful winter storm event heading for SE TX.***

 

Winter Storm Warning in effect from 900pm tonight until 900am Friday for all counties.

 

Arctic cold front is moving southward through north TX this morning and will move off the coast early this afternoon. Initial wind shift will drop temperatures into the 40’s across the area before a secondary surge of much colder air arrives around dark this evening which is currently moving southward over OK and KS where temps are in the 10’s and 1’s. Short term models suggest northern tier counties could be very near freezing prior to sunset this evening so we could start to see some changeover of rain to freezing rain after 300pm in the College Station to Huntsville areas…but think roads will be ok until after sunset and then it is going to go downhill very quickly and spread southward across much of the area. Meso models are in decent agreement on breaking out light rain this afternoon from north to south across the region as lifting of a moistening air mass over the frontal dome occurs. Temperatures should fall to freezing at most locations by 300-400am Friday morning and the recovery on Friday will be very slow with temperatures not likely reaching freezing until around 1000am to noon if then. Warming on Friday will depend on the amount of precipitation that continues across the area.  

 

P-type:

After reviewing the short term guidance forecast soundings for IAH, VCT, and CLL I see no big reason to change the P-type thinking of mostly freezing rain and sleet with mixed snow. Interestingly CLL soundings do fall almost entirely below freezing by 600am Friday morning which would suggest a changeover to mostly snow. Sounding is also saturated up to around 15,000ft but then dries aloft. Think the northern counties will start off as freezing rain early this evening then go over to a freezing rain and sleet mix then to a sleet and snow mix by Friday morning. Further south including metro Houston and the US 59 corridor expect rain to change to freezing rain around midnight and then a freezing rain and sleet mixture Friday morning. Toward the coast mainly just freezing rain with some sleet mixed in. This continues to look like an ice event over a snow event…but there will be plenty of mixing of precipitation across the region as thermal profiles change throughout the event.

 

Accumulations:

A little more concerned with accumulations this morning as the intruding dry air from the NE looks less than before and liquid QPF numbers have increased some overnight especially on the NAM model. Would like to see 00Z (600pm) soundings this evening to see how they are matching with the meso model trends…but I do not have that luxury 12 hours before they are launched. Upstream air mass is very cold and dry so I will leave that door open to a little more drier air getting in here than the models are showing and keeping accumulation amounts in the .10 to .20 range. Should there be less dry air accumulation amounts could be closer to .25 to .30 inches which becomes a little more concerning with respect to power outages and tree limbs. Amounts look greatest along the US 59 from Houston SW to Victoria and then southward toward the coast where the moisture will be greatest and the dry sub cloud layer least….or Fort Bend, Wharton, Jackson, and Victoria Counties.  

 

Other item to consider is the amount of sleet mixing in which tends to lessen accumulations, but forms a more solid and crusty layer of ice similar to what happened in N TX in early December 2013. More snow would greatly increase accumulations into the ½ to 1.5 inch range…but this looks unlikely at the moment and if it occurred would be mainly NW of a line from Columbus to Conroe. Think any snow will be very wet and will likely only add to the icing accumulation.

 

Impacts:

 

Ice accumulation on bridge and overpasses looks likely tonight into much of Friday producing extremely dangerous travel conditions. TXDOT crews have been applying anti-ice chemical on freeways overnight. Extreme caution should be used at all bridges, overpasses, connector ramps, and flyovers after dark tonight through all day on Friday. Additional roadway treatments will likely be needed tonight into Friday. If you must travel…take surface streets with as few bridges as possible.

 

Airports will require de-icing operations of aircraft by this evening so expect long delays. Ice accumulation on aircraft control surfaces at departure gates and on runways is likely with heavy icing up through 5,000 ft in rapidly changing precipitation mixture through ascent.  

 

Still think power outages will not be a big problem, but we are starting to get near the threshold on accumulation where the area could see some outages. Typically 1/4^th of an inch of ice is the threshold to start to see power problems and ½ of an inch is when things really start to get bad. These outages would likely be focused north of I-10 in the pine forest areas which have the most surface area for ice to accumulate. Winds will also be gusty in the 20-30mph range which will add more weight and pressure to ice covered trees and power lines.     

 

Next update: early afternoon

 

[DoctorMu]

hohoho

 

[Ed Lizard]

IMBY (Houston)

 

Based on 12Z models, absolutely a trivial event.  With one huge exception.  Surface roads will never ice, trees won't pick up anywhere near enough ice to lose branches.

The one exception, any road not in contact with the ground not heavily treated will probably see just enough precip at just cold enough a temperature will have areas that are ice rinks.

TxDOT, concetrating on, say, high in the air Beltway to Interstate connectors can probably keep them ice free.  But they don't have enough trucks for every creek crossing and overpass in the Metro.

Just based on QPFs and temps US models spitting out.  Trivial, except for those who wind up in car accidents of various severity.  I saw a video once, Dallas area, I think I-635, pickup truck going 60 mph or 70 mph with no trouble.  TV camera crew, I think.  At night.  They knew exactly where to set up for a truck going 60 or 70 mph hitting the iced over overpass and going for a wild ride.  Don't think, if I remember, he rolled the truck.  But he sure could have.

[DoctorMu]

I know I beat this to death but the big events rarely get forecasted well because it IS better to be conservative unless you're a hype master like some national guy i won't mention. Pretty sure the December 2004 miracle or the January 1985 event for the Hill Country were never called. Get enough chances and the worm will turn.

 

The Christmas Eve snow miracle from 2004 was indeed projected to be small although the incidence of snow in the Hill Country and jumping over the the coast was accurate.  CLL got nothing so my kids talked me into driving to Houston down 290.  We stopped at a McDs on 290 outside beltway 8 and it really started to come down.  We hit Beltway 8 to Gessner and just 2 blocks from a brother and laws place the thermostat stuck and the car overheated ironically in the heavy snow - blew out the #1 piston.  Found the only service station open and walked in the snow which was 3 in deep by then

[msp]

Already down to 39/34 here and real gusty

 

TAMU just tweeted that they are watching the weather closely (duh).  I assume that means closure is possible tomorrow morning.  I know Caldwell, Snook, and Somerville have already announced school delays for tomorrow.  Will probably be the second and final time I see snow here before I graduate and move to Houston in May.

[DFWWeather]

12z ECMWF just came in with INCREDIBLE cold for much of the state of Texas for Monday/Tuesday next week. H85 temps approaching or exceeding -15°C at DFW. This would be the coldest air in 18 years if correct and would drop lows into the single digits at DFW. Looks like trough axis would be much further west than on prior runs. The magnitude of the cold looks reasonable given the airmass crossed over the pole. Even the GFS shows H85 temps at or exceeding -10°C. This would most definitely be the coldest airmass of this winter season and colder than earlier this month when DFW hit 15°F.

[DoctorMu]

Let the games begin.

 

[aggiegeog]

Earlier this afternoon we had light sleet which turned to flurries in downtown Tyler. Maybe we can hold onto enough moisture up along I-20 to get a light accumulation of snow tonight.

It sure is looking like we are going to start next week like we are ending this week. Hope we can get another low to give us some snow which would really send our temps into the gutter.

[OUGrad05]

So I'm in downtown Houston, supposed to fly out of Hobby tomorrow at 12:05, am I going to have issues?  This is being touted as a major event for Houston and that there will be big travel issues, per local news....

 

Temps were warm yesterday, not bad today in the mid 50s, I would suspect all the elevated freeways (lots of them here) could be a problem?  I plan to leave downtown about 9:30 but could leave a bit earlier/later as necessary.  

 

I'd appreciate any thoughts from Houstonians on the board...

[DoctorMu]

1 in + of snow at the TX/LA border near Nagodoches.

 

Tongue of warm air keeping the wintry mix wetter near CLL so far.

 

Lucy better not pull that football out again, Charlie Brown.

[Quixotic1]

1 in + of snow at the TX/LA border near Nagodoches.

Tongue of warm air keeping the wintry mix wetter near CLL so far.

Lucy better not pull that football out again, Charlie Brown.

I hate the warm nose.

[msp]

1 in + of snow at the TX/LA border near Nagodoches.

 

Tongue of warm air keeping the wintry mix wetter near CLL so far.

 

Lucy better not pull that football out again, Charlie Brown.

 

She already yanked it most of the way.  Can't even get freezing rain here.  We're wasting all of this precip and the temp still won't drop below 35F.

[1900hurricane]

Getting sleet on my car in College Station.

 

[msp]

Getting sleet on my car in College Station.

 

If you don't mind me asking, what part of College Station are you in?  I'm here on the south side near Rock Prairie and Wellborn and we don't have a lick of frozen stuff.

[1900hurricane]

If you don't mind me asking, what part of College Station are you in?  I'm here on the south side near Rock Prairie and Wellborn and we don't have a lick of frozen stuff.

 

I'm in the northeast part of town near University and 6.

[msp]

I'm in the northeast part of town near University and 6.

 

Ah, that explains it.  Well, the rain/sleet line must be passing through campus about now then.

[DoctorMu]

She already yanked it most of the way.  Can't even get freezing rain here.  We're wasting all of this precip and the temp still won't drop below 35F.

 

 

Sleet/snow/rain mix and down to 32° 

[1900hurricane]

My old enemy, the dry slot...

 

[msp]

Sleet/snow/rain mix and down to 32° 

 

I'm still going to gripe about it. 

 

Still all liquid here on the south side and precip is letting up significantly.

[DoctorMu]

Wunderground has a tongue of snow near Hempstead.

 

The sleet has stopped and we're being dry slotted per 1900

[bubba hotep]

Was holding out hope for some flurries but the dry air crushed any hopes of that although my wife reported seeing flurries while picking up the kids.  I would be really peeved if I lived over in Tyler or the surrounding area.  Radar looks great but nothing reaching the ground apparently.

 

It looks like we could make run at single digits tonight?  So there’s that.  Also, I still like the way February is shaping up.

 

I’m having a couple of cold ones and pulling for y’all down south

[DFWWeather]

Was holding out hope for some flurries but the dry air crushed any hopes of that although my wife reported seeing flurries while picking up the kids.  I would be really peeved if I lived over in Tyler or the surrounding area.  Radar looks great but nothing reaching the ground apparently.

 

It looks like we could make run at single digits tonight?  So there’s that.  Also, I still like the way February is shaping up.

 

I’m having a couple of cold ones and pulling for y’all down south

Think DFW will stay in teens tonight given partial cloud cover and although dp have dropped below zero and airmass is 5k feet deep. H85 temps are too warm for single digits. However, if 12z ECMWF is even remotely correct, the Arctic plunge early next week should get us to single digits. As I mentioned above, it has H85 temps approaching -15C at DFW.

[Quixotic1]

Was holding out hope for some flurries but the dry air crushed any hopes of that although my wife reported seeing flurries while picking up the kids. I would be really peeved if I lived over in Tyler or the surrounding area. Radar looks great but nothing reaching the ground apparently.

It looks like we could make run at single digits tonight? So there’s that. Also, I still like the way February is shaping up.

I’m having a couple of cold ones and pulling for y’all down south

Something falling through the lights here. Tiny flakes or drizzle. Not sure which. Humidity at 34 % so I'm guessing a little snow flurry action.

Good luck to points south. DP at -5 here.