Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[wxmx]

Cold but dry for most. Without a potent mid level disturbance, the surface air is just too dry. Mid/long range still shows the same chilly/brief warm pattern (below normal overall)  we have had for the winter.

[wxmx]

12z models are a bit colder...and the Euro has some stronger trailing energy that ups the chances slightly for frozen precipitation IMBY. Still, odds are low for something like that occurring.

[Srain]

12z models are a bit colder...and the Euro has some stronger trailing energy that ups the chances slightly for frozen precipitation IMBY. Still, odds are low for something like that occurring.

The new Western trough/cold core low scenario later next week looks very familiar to what we witnessed back in early December as well.

[Srain]

[DoctorMu]

Colder and drier.  What a day to be on the road from ATL

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
331 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A PUSH OF A VERY
COLD AIR MASS INTO SE TX EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY
A WARMUP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS HELP RETURN GULF
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS ARE THEN
CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE COAST BEFORE NOON.

THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON IS THEN EXPECTED. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO SAY
WITH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST FREEZING
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING TOWARD
THE COAST...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERTY
TO THE WOODLANDS TO COLUMBUS EXPERIENCING MID 20S. MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE INLAND
COUNTIES. LOWER 20S LOOKS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
LIBERTY TO THE WOODLANDS TO COLUMBUS. METRO HOUSTON MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 20S AND UPPER 20S...WITH HARRIS
COUNTY LIKELY EXPERIENCING LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST...MID 20S IN
THE CENTRAL...AND UPPER 20S TOWARD GALVESTON BAY. LOWS BETWEEN 28
AND 32 LOOK TO BE COMMON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like DFW will come up one short of the record, based on the current forecast.

 

From FWD:

 

DALLAS/FORT WORTH - MOST FREEZES IN A SEASON THROUGH DECEMBER 31

1 23 2000

   23 1989

3 22 1976

   22 1963

5 21 1985

   21 1983

   21 1964

8 20 2013* (THROUGH DECEMBER 26)

   20 1932

   20 1903

 

DFW ended up recording 24 moving 2013 into 1st place!

[Srain]

NWS Houston/Galveston expecting the Arctic front to arrive Sunday morning and push off the Coast by mid day to early afternoon. They are forecasting 9-12 hours below freezing Sunday night and if winds can calm down as high pressure settles across the area Monday night, 12-15 hours below freezing may be expected. As far as temperatures are concerned for night ltime lows, Sunday night low to mid 20's mainly N of HWY 59 to near freezing along the Coast warming to near 40 on Monday and then dropping quickly Monday evening into the upper teens across our N and W as well as NE suburbs and the Piney Woods/Lake Livingston area with low to mid 20's in the Metro Houston and near 30 along the Coast including Galveston. Tuesday morning looks to be the coldest we have seen since February 2011 across our Region. Moderation is expected by Tuesday evening as winds return off the Gulf. We will likely need to monitor just how much snow falls across Oklahoma Saturday night as some possibly colder temps could occur if the snow is more widespread than expected N of the Red River Valley into Arkansas. There is a slight chance of some freezing rain/sleet across far NE Texas/Northern Louisiana as the Arctic front passes. For our neighbors in the New Orleans area and across Arcadia, freezing rain/sleet chances N of the Lake may be possible and a Hard Freeze is likely into the Delta early Tuesday. For Central Texas, Hard Freeze is expected with mid teens across the Hill Country Highlands. For the Corpus Christi area, Hard Freeze is likely N of HWY 35 and the Brush Country. Near freezing temps possible just N of Brownsville with freezing temps expected in McAllen/Harlingen. Wind Chill Advisories/Warnings may be hoisted for ALL areas Sunday night as gusty winds settle across Texas with a 1042mb Arctic High pressure cell with its origin from the Arctic/Siberia.

[wxmx]

A series of mid/upper level disturbances appear to cross the region in the mid range, the first one involves mostly polar Pacific air, and the second one could have more Canadian air mixed in. The reason is that the EPO turns positive for a bit. After that the EPO might go back down to negative.

 

It appears more likely that I will see some light wintry precipitation the 6th and/or the 7th. It appears like it will be stratus snow, meaning that structure of the flakes will be simple and small, and very light ammounts...Also, temps will be hovering at or just above freezing...I don't expect any accumulation, but since snow is very rare here, anything is welcomed.

[Srain]

Unfortunately the 12Z guidance has trended colder for Monday and Tuesday mornings across SE Texas and Louisiana. Mid to upper teens possible across portions of North and West Harris County and the New Orleans area may see temps in the 15-19F range. Spent the day protecting exposed exterior pipes and pool equipment as well as Koi ponds and pumps/filters.

[mempho]

Unfortunately the 12Z guidance has trended colder for Monday and Tuesday mornings across SE Texas and Louisiana. Mid to upper teens possible across portions of North and West Harris County and the New Orleans area may see temps in the 15-19F range. Spent the day protecting exposed exterior pipes and pool equipment as well as Koi ponds and pumps/filters.

Alright, so when air that cold meets the Gulf, do you see a surprise?

Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk

[DFWWeather]

All 12z guidance has trended colder for the DFW area. NAM reporting H85 temps approaching -14°C at coldest point. Guidance showing lows as cold as 13°F at DFW for Monday morning; although we have a better chance of seeing it that cold Tuesday morning under ideal radiational cooling conditions underneath the Arctic high. Wouldn't be surprised, given the extremely dry air, that we reach that temp, if not lower. I'm not impressed with the prospects of rain later next week, but will see. I think models are overdoing the erosion of the Arctic air and the recovery of moisture.

[bubba hotep]

I'm pulling for single digits out this way!

[Quixotic1]

Cold is a little underwhelming so far. 35 imby but 40 at DFW. Wind is as advertised. Don't see DFW's streak of years above single digits ending during this snap.

[DFWWeather]

Cold is a little underwhelming so far. 35 imby but 40 at DFW. Wind is as advertised. Don't see DFW's streak of years above single digits ending during this snap.

 

Yeah, but the secondary Arctic front has not arrived yet. It will not be underwhelming tonight and tomorrow morning. I agree single digits are off the table at DFW, but I still think guidance and NWS is too warm for Tuesday morning as they have been the last two weeks with each of these fronts. It really is mind blowing that it has been 18 years since the last time we dipped below 10°F. The longest stretch on record by a wide, wide margin. We should be doing that every 4 to 5 years on average based on climo. I guess we are going to have to wait until the AMO reverses to colder before we get the opportunity to dip that low again cause for whatever reason, we cannot get a delivery setup to do it, or when we do the airmasses are not cold enough to deliver.

[DFWWeather]

A Wind Chill Advisory has just been posted for the DFW Metroplex with wind chills expected to fall below zero at times tonight. Latest guidance suggests we could fall to 12°F at DFW Airport.

[Quixotic1]

A Wind Chill Advisory has just been posted for the DFW Metroplex with wind chills expected to fall below zero at times tonight. Latest guidance suggests we could fall to 12°F at DFW Airport.

DPs falling inyo single digits. 10 IMBY with 23 temp. DFW has 12 DP with 29 temp.

[DFWWeather]

DPs falling inyo single digits. 10 IMBY with 23 temp. DFW has 12 DP with 29 temp.

 

DP should continue to fall overnight and will likely be below zero by daybreak and continue falling through much of tomorrow. May approach 10 below in some places.

[Quixotic1]

I'm pulling for single digits out this way!

This is a lock for thee and me. 17 imby with dps dropping along with it. 8 sounds good.-

[Srain]

Morning Update from Meteorologist Jeff Lindner (Harris County Flood Control District):

Damaging advective freeze in progress over the north part of the area currently.

Extremely cold tonight with lows from 13-25 across the region

Maximum freeze precautions must be taken for tonight.

Arctic high continues to build southward from the central plains with strong winds having continued all night in the 15-25mph range. 600am wind chills range from an impressive 9 at College Station to 15 at BUSH IAH and 19 at Palacios. 600am temperatures range from 23 at College Station and Huntsville to 27-29 N of US 59 to just above freezing right at the coast.

1040mb arctic high will build deeper into TX today resulting in steadily decreasing winds and gradually clearing skies. Upper level system currently near Baja is attempting to spreading high level moisture across the area and periods of high clouds are possible today into this evening.

Tonight under mainly clear skies, light winds, and extremely low dewpoints a very hard freeze is expected for all locations. Low temperature records from 1912 (College Station) and 1970 (Houston) may be threatened. Expect highs today to only reach the mid to upper 30’s with temperatures quickly falling below freezing at sunset and staying below freezing until late Tuesday morning.

Forecasted lows (Tuesday Morning):

N of HWY 105: 13-17

Conroe Area: 14-16

N of I-10: 17-21

N of US 59: 18-22

Inside Beltway 8: 24-27

N of a line from Victoria to Bay City to Pasadena: 22-28

Coastal beaches (including Galveston Is): 29-32

Temperatures will be at or below freezing for 14-18 hours and at or below 25 for up to 12 hours.

Preparations:

Maximum freeze precautions must be taken for forecasted temperatures of this magnitude including heavily protecting of tropical vegetation and citrus, protection of all exposed outside pipes including sprinkler systems, and sheltering for pets/livestock.

Temperatures below 20 degrees can lead to freezing and bursting of exterior wall/attic pipes in houses…open exterior cabinet doors and keep interior air temperature at or above 70 degrees. If pipes freeze, shut off the water supply to the house from the main shut off and wait for pipes to thaw to determine if they have broken…do not attempt to thaw pipes…this can at times cause more damage.

End of the Week:

Large arctic high will move eastward with onshore winds returning to the area Tuesday afternoon. Moisture will come roaring back into the region Wednesday with rain chances likely from late Wednesday into next weekend as the flow aloft becomes SW and several upper level disturbances move across the region. Widespread rainfall looks likely, but hard to time disturbances make it difficult to pin point the greatest potential period. Could see 1-2 inches of rainfall by the weekend across the region.

[Quixotic1]

This is a lock for thee and me. 17 imby with dps dropping along with it. 8 sounds good.-

 

Ugh.  I jinxed it.  11 at Denton.  13 at Collin County.  10.4 IMBY.  The wind is supposed to switch back to the SSW tonight so, hopes of eclipsing it are dim. 

[Ed Lizard]

We had our hard freeze, the odds of snow in Houston are tiny, I am ready for March.

[DFWWeather]

We had our hard freeze, the odds of snow in Houston are tiny, I am ready for March.

 

It is going to be a long winter for you then my friend. I'm already seeing how the pattern may reload and us get hit again with more Arctic air possibly by mid month and again towards the end of the month into early February. Already, mean 500 mb patterns of the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF are reloading. 

[CranberryWX]

We had our hard freeze, the odds of snow in Houston are tiny, I am ready for March.

My new palm trees are taking a beating. I didn't expect this type of cold when we moved here. Crap! I'm ready for June.

[DFWWeather]

My new palm trees are taking a beating. I didn't expect this type of cold when we moved here. Crap! I'm ready for June.

 

Well, I'd get used to colder winters. The winters of the 60s, 70s, and 80s were very cold by and large for Texas and we are heading back into that type of pattern. The winters of the past 20 years have been milder than what is normally experienced (abnormal really) and have been warmer than average for the most part. The cold that we are experiencing now is not record breaking by any stretch and rather short lived. Try December 1983 when brutal freezes reached all the way into northern Mexico and DFW stayed below freezing for 14 days straight. That freeze killed agriculture and palm trees all along the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Bottom line it can get very cold in Texas.

[DoctorMu]

I agree.  This is not the last run for the Siberian Express this winter.  In fact, we really are receiving a glancing blow tonight.  The bone chilling stuff is ATL way  11°F on the way to about 6°F.  Wind chill of -3°F.   Huntsville at 9°C down to about 5°F ..we just got in from that direction - Breathtaking Electron Cold

 

 

Plants are covered.  Gotta be honest - summer kills a lot more trees and plants than winter in CLL.  Will take the insect killing benefits, too.

[wxmx]

Brief period of sleet and that was all...moisture was lacking here. Also, just briefly at 0C for an hour or so at the airport, officially recording the first freezing mark of the season. Overall this colds snap was just meh IMBY.

[Quixotic1]

Winter potential looking pretty meh for awhile.  Fantasy land Euro looks good but GFS has push eastward.  Indices look mostly aimless.

 

Happy wxmx got some sleet out of it.            

[DFWWeather]

Winter potential looking pretty meh for awhile.  Fantasy land Euro looks good but GFS has push eastward.  Indices look mostly aimless.

 

Happy wxmx got some sleet out of it.            

Yes 240 hour ECMWF is bringing the polar vortex back into the picture, the extended control does as well and quite brutually. This time a little farther west! I think it is likely another Arctic outbreak will occur, but question is when? In about 10 days or toward the end of the month or both?

[bubba hotep]

Yes 240 hour ECMWF is bringing the polar vortex back into the picture, the extended control does as well and quite brutually. This time a little farther west! I think it is likely another Arctic outbreak will occur, but question is when? In about 10 days or toward the end of the month or both?

 

Yeah, the last couple of runs of the Euro have looked encouraging at 240 and it seems people are liking what they are seeing on the weeklies.  However, the GEFS has really gone off in the ditch in the long range but the good thing is that will likely change (fingers crossed!)

 

[Quixotic1]

Ugh.  12z ECMWF op jogs east to join ensembles.