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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

New GFS, based on just rainfall totals, suggests it is close, but cap breaks North and East of metro Houston, favoring happy FUNderstorms mainly in the NE suburbs.    Forecast soundings at 42 hours on GFS show barely a cap at LFK, a strong warm nose a GFS.  NAM timing starting to sync up with GFS, as expected, as Saturday approaches.  GFS seems to have better instability.  Still, personal preference, GFS, as NAM solution is still changing.

 

 

Glass fullness unchanged for SETX.  May actually drop after 12Z models tomorrow, especially if 0Z Euro also suggests cap doesn't break locally.   TWC Houston TorCon of 4 (equivalent to an SPC 10% risk) and East TX TorCon of 5 (>10%, less than 15%) may be a touch overdone.   But looks like extreme NE Texas, Arkansas, and Maybe Mississippi may be the action spot Saturday.  Unrelated to severe, GFS suggests heavy rain threat along and just North of the surface low.  And maybe an overnight late Saturday/early Sunday severe threat Kentucky/Tennessee on the Northern edge of the warm sector.  But best instability may coincide with strongest capping.  And highest bulk shear may not coincide with remaining good instability.  (Using TwisterData.com for a lot of big picture stuff, especially with 3 hour intervals on GFS) 

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

The leading edge could be in Waco by rush hour.  If only the severe threat Sat could become thundersnow... :santa:

Clearly the guidance has under estimated the cold. It will be interesting so to exactly where the front eventually pulls up stationary this evening.

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NJ_Ken

NJ_Ken

Posted
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I am in Oklahoma City and, FWIW, the front insanely over-performed up here.  Even as of the late last night, we were looking at a forecast of temperatures dropping into the mid 30s today with maybe... MAYBE... temperatures getting down to near 32 F overnight tonight giving us a very slight risk of some brief freezing rain before temps rose again tomorrow.  Instead, temperatures dropped into the 20s early this morning and have been hovering there all day with dewpoints now in the teens as the precipitation gets ever closer.  It is about to get ugly up here and probably pretty darn far to the south of here.   

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Srain

Srain

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Posted

The cold front is currently passing through the Austin Area on down to Giddings and surface analysis does suggest a surface low near Del Rio. College Station is S of the front, so would expect as seen via radar trends continuing storm development, some possibly severe to begin to ramp up near daybreak. Further S, the capping inversion still looks stout. Also noted is a very dry layer aloft which should inhibit thunderstorm development or lack of ability for towering cumulous cloud development early this morning. There is a brief 3-4 hour window as storms begin to line up or go linear that some severe storm development may be possible closer to Houston and Galveston, but that remains to be seen. The severe threat should end by early afternoon across all but extreme SE/E Texas. Further E into Louisiana where the Moderate Risk is currently outlined, a much tougher day weather wise may be ahead where capping issues will be far less. Areas from just E of Lake Charles to Baton Rogue and further N and E appear to be in the bulls eye for rotating super cell structure and the main focus of damaging wind and tornadoes. The upper low is shearing out over New Mexico at this time, but a negative tilted trough axis if slowly developing. Further N in the cold sector across Oklahoma and Missouri, a full blown ice storm is underway and that icy mess extends NE into the Chicago area.

There still remains a risk of a light freeze early Monday and Tuesday across our Region. Christmas Day looks rather uncertain as a short wave drops SE in the NW flow aloft and a E to SE flow of the Gulf begins and upglide precip may develop.

Looking a bit further out beyond Christmas Day, it appears we will be in a rather active and 'colder' pattern with bouts of rain and possibly wintery weather further N as the pattern continues to develop upper air disturbances to our W and the sub tropical jet remains rather noisy. There are growing indications that much colder air will push S into the Inter Mountain West and The Great Plains towards the last week of December, but that is too far out to know with any certainty what the New Years Eve/New Years Day forecast may hold as we ring in 2014.

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

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We were blasted this am about 6 am as impulses along the frontal boundary ride through CLL  Some wind damage.  We've gone from 47° to 65° and back to 53° and now 63° as the near stationary front whipping back and forth.  NW LA could see severe action.

 

Tornado watch issued here through the HOU area.

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Srain

Srain

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Posted

Update from Jeff L (Harris County Flood Control District)

 

SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for all of SE TX until 600pm.

 

Capping inversion over the region is starting to erode as large scale lift increasing ahead of approaching upper level storm system. Cells so far this morning have not become severe, but upstream line of strong to severe thunderstorms approaching along the dryline from central TX may pose a severe weather threat over the next 3-6 hours as it moves eastward into the area. Wind profiles remain supportive of weak tornadoes along with damaging straight line winds of 60-70mph. Think the threat for discrete supercells ahead of the main line is lowering and moving NE into LA at the moment and the main severe mode will be with the line approaching from the west. Embedded weak tornadoes within any kinks in the line will be possible.

 

Note cells are moving very quickly at 40-55mph and this will greatly limit warning lead times. If a warning is issued for your area take quick action.

SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for all of SE TX until 600pm.

 

Capping inversion over the region is starting to erode as large scale lift increasing ahead of approaching upper level storm system. Cells so far this morning have not become severe, but upstream line of strong to severe thunderstorms approaching along the dryline from central TX may pose a severe weather threat over the next 3-6 hours as it moves eastward into the area. Wind profiles remain supportive of weak tornadoes along with damaging straight line winds of 60-70mph. Think the threat for discrete supercells ahead of the main line is lowering and moving NE into LA at the moment and the main severe mode will be with the line approaching from the west. Embedded weak tornadoes within any kinks in the line will be possible.

 

Note cells are moving very quickly at 40-55mph and this will greatly limit warning lead times. If a warning is issued for your area take quick action.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Damn it, I sure hope that doesn't come January 3rd, I'm leaving Houston January 2nd.  Would rather my flight be delayed and be able to see snow here than have my flight get outta here right before snow, if it were to happen, lol.

Fun almost never actually happens in Houston.  The odds of snow in any random Winter are very low, 3 times this century, and on any given day, even lower.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

As pleasing as December has been, January looks a little worrisome. The outbreak that was slated for this week didn't pan out and the pattern looks to get more progressive as any cold gets quickly shunted off to the east rather than south. I am afraid it will be February before we can get more blocky meridonal pattern. I hope I'm wrong but that's my gut.

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