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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

Has anyone noticed the output from both the ECMWF and the GFS for the last several runs for surface temps across North Texas and Oklahoma? Both models consistently bring the 5°F isotherm at the surface across DFW and temps well below zero in Oklahoma for next Wednesday morning. They both appear to be seeing ice accumulations well cause it is this area where the brutal cold sets up. H85 temps don't really support this kind of cold at the surface.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

We are getting some sleet right now.

 

FWD says we might possibly maybe could see snow:

 

.UPDATE...
12Z FWD SOUNDING DATA COMING IN NOW SHOWS THAT THE WARM NOSE HAS
FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0 AND THAT THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THEREFORE...HAVE CHANGED THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE TODAY FROM SLEET TO LIGHT SNOW. WILL KEEP
THE POPS LOW SINCE ANY SNOW FLAKES THAT FALL WILL STILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME A STOUT LAYER OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL
WILL STICK.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

It's starting to get messy in Central and portions of SE Texas now. Icing reported W of Houston on I-10 and on HWY 71 in the Bastrop area. Also just got a report of icing on cars in the College Station area as well as Sealy/Brookshire.

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

It is now 32°F at DFW with a dewpoint of 30°F. This storm is a dud for the heart of the Metroplex. The streets will just be water in the morning. Temperatures cannot fall anymore with heavier precipitation. They need to fall below 28°F for several hours for the secondary and primary roads to ice.

 

I'm just now getting to read this thread but would you like to correct that statement? I mean, we've only just had the biggest ice storm in ten years... 

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Police shut down the northbound and southbound upper decks of I-35 in Austin due to icy conditions.

The Travis County Sheriff's Office told KVUE Sunday night just before 10 p.m. they were responding to at least 20 accidents across the county. The dispatch center is overwhelmed with 911 calls and was unable to provide KVUE any detailed information.

Ed Bluestein Blvd. northbound at Bolm Rd. and southbound at Techni Center Dr. in Central East Austin are completely shut down due to a 25-vehicle collision.

Interstate 10 between Schulenburg and Flatonia is closed due to accidents caused by that icing.

KVUE News was told at least 100 TxDOT crews are treating and retreating roads across the area. More crews have just been called out to problem areas.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

I saw wet roads with lots of ice on bridges and overpasses this evening when going to pickup some food.  Add in some freezing fog and it will be a tricky Monday morning for lots of DFW.

 

000
FXUS64 KFWD 090003 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
603 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE TO ISSUE A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY AGAIN AS VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE TO FALL AND TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW FREEZING. AREAS
THAT CLEARED TO THE WEST WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST...LOW CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. FOG WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ICING TO EXPOSED SURFACES. TRAVEL IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME DANGEROUS AGAIN TONIGHT...AS MELTED WATER FROM EARLIER
REFREEZES ON AREA ROADS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

FWISD and DISD- day off for the kids!!!!

 

Interesting video of damaged cars and falling ice sheets during yesterdays' afternoon thaw.  Temps nearing freezing already, should be some  melting and drying today in the Metroplex. 

 

Weak reinforcing cool front and nightfall, any standing water should refreeze overnight, but really, the end is in site.

 

Falling ice- From KXAS Facebook, I think it was a Ford.

 

1500878_10151883807422690_278478555_o.jp

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

Posted
Posted

I drove from Houston back to College Station on Saturday night (needed to get back and figured it was the lesser of the two evils over early Sunday morning), just as the freezing drizzle was really starting to pick up (temp was very clearly below 32*F most of the way). I could not believe how fast the other people were driving in these conditions. I capped my speed at 55-60 mph down 6, but almost everyone else was going as if nothing abnormal was even happening. I don't know if they were being dismissive of the freezing drizzle or were just plain oblivious of it, but I kept telling myself that I was going to see someone wreck that night. That didn't actually happen, but as soon as I got home, I started hearing about several wrecks in the locations I had just driven. And people wonder why they aren't able to drive in winter conditions...

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

I drove from Houston back to College Station on Saturday night (needed to get back and figured it was the lesser of the two evils over early Sunday morning), just as the freezing drizzle was really starting to pick up (temp was very clearly below 32*F most of the way). I could not believe how fast the other people were driving in these conditions. I capped my speed at 55-60 mph down 6, but almost everyone else was going as if nothing abnormal was even happening. I don't know if they were being dismissive of the freezing drizzle or were just plain oblivious of it, but I kept telling myself that I was going to see someone wreck that night. That didn't actually happen, but as soon as I got home, I started hearing about several wrecks in the locations I had just driven. And people wonder why they aren't able to drive in winter conditions...

 

There were quite a few accidents in BCS on bridges/overpasses...

 

We were 40 hours at or below freezing.  Impressive for early Dec.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Strong Wording from FWD AFD:


.LONG RANGE FORECAST...
...FOR THE 8 TO 12 DAY FORECAST PERIOD...
...THURSDAY DEC 19 THROUGH MONDAY DEC 23...

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAK ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THAT COULD START JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE EXTENDED RANGE...THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS. A CLOSE INSPECTION OF
THE LATEST 42-MEMBER NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE (NAEFS) SUGGESTS THAT
THE LOWER END OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT /TWO
TO THREE DAY/ PERIOD OF MUCH-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE
OR NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER
END OF THE IMPACTS SUGGEST A 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF MUCH-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN MANY AREAS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.

BASED ON THE LAST 3-4 RUNS OF THE NAEFS...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT
A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
DEC 19 OR DEC 20. THE FORECAST 500 MB PATTERN AND FORECAST MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA STRONGLY SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD
PLUNGING AIRMASS AT LEAST AS COLD AS THE AIRMASS THAT ARRIVED IN
TEXAS ON DEC 5-6. THIS MORNINGS /12Z/ DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL COLD SURGE WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY DEC 19 OR FRIDAY DEC 20. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...THEN
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND DEC 21-22.

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