bubba hotep Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks like the 18z GFS came in wetter for the DFW area. Maybe 0.50" falls during the event while 2m temps are below freezing. ETA: Like the look of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Wintry mix as far south as Hearne (the usual cutoff) expected now Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Certainly hoping this one pans out this time here. Being from up north I do miss winter events this time of year, but will get my fill when I head to PA next week. Hope flights out of DFW will be good next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 FWD issuing an update to expand the Watch area to cover most of DFW: Great discussion with the update: 000FXUS64 KFWD 040315AFDFWDAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX915 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013.UPDATE...THE MAIN UPDATE ISSUE OF INTEREST IS THAT WE HAVE EXPANDED THEWINTER STORM WATCH TO COVER THE NW HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. BUT FORTONIGHTS FORECAST HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN A FEW AREAS WHEREDRY AIR AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ARE EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO ADDEDA MENTION OF FOG TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERETEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO REACH THE DEWPOINTS.WITHOUT EVEN LOOKING AT THE MODEL DATA THE 0Z UPPER AIR ANALYSISFOREBODES AN OMINOUS SETUP FOR WINTER WEATHER FOR NORTH TEXAS. THEUPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT AT SOME POINT IN THE NEXT FEWDAYS...EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND/OR THIS WEEKEND THECOMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE/LIFT ARE GOING TO COME INTOPLAY TO CREATE A WINTRY MIX OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE THE GO-TO FOR SEEING HOW COLD AN AIR MASSIS...IT IS ACTUALLY BETTER TO ANALYZE THE LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPSUPSTREAM TO SEE HOW COLD THE AIR IS THERE. THIS IS BECAUSE AIRBEHIND A COLD FRONT UNDERGOES SLOW SUBSIDENCE AS IT MAKES ITS WAYSOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES OF PAST COLD FRONTSSHOW US TO CHECK 500-700MB TEMPS IN THE ARCTIC REGION SEVERAL DAYSOUT...AND 700-850MB TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA 2 TO 3 DAYS OUTTO GET A ROUGH IDEA ON HOW COLD IT IS GOING TO GET. THUS IT ISCONCERNING THAT THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 00Z REVEALSEXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR AT 700MB-850MB ACROSS MONTANA AND INTOALBERTA. GREAT FALLS MONTANA HAD A 700MB TEMP OF -24C AND -20C AT850MB. THESE TEMPS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOWNORMAL...WHICH IS AKIN TO SAYING THIS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD COLDIF WE KEPT RECORDS AT THIS POINT IN SPACE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN2-4 DEG C TOO WARM WITH 6-12 HOUR FORECAST TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ASWELL...BUT IS BEGINNING TO CATCH ON.MEANWHILE THE SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THE COLD FRONTBARRELING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...NOWCROSSING THROUGH MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS. ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THERAP/NAM ARE MUCH TOO SLOW IN THEIR 3-6 HOUR FORECASTS. THIS IS ACOMMON ISSUE WITH ARCTIC FRONTS WHEN THE 500MB PATTERN IS SITUATEDIN THIS FASHION. LEE SIDE COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE FRONT RANGE OFTHE ROCKIES CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD FARTHER SOUTH ANDALLOWS FOR STRONGER EQUATOR-WARD TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR THANFORECAST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO A BETTER JOB AT FORECASTINGTHIS...AND THE NAM/WRF MODELS ARE ABOUT THE BEST WE HAVE IN THESHORT-MEDIUM TIME RANGE. THE RAP IS EXCELLENT IN THIS SITUATION ASWELL...BUT ONLY GOES OUT 18 HOURS. THE NAM AND RAP MODELS AREINDICATING THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES AFTERSUNRISE...AND WILL LIKELY STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-20CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BEVERY SHALLOW...AND SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THISAIR GREATLY. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SEVERALHOURS AND LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE 60S IN THE NORTHERN ZONES.WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEXIN THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT AGAIN...THE CHANGE IN TEMPS AND WINDSWILL NOT BE ALL THAT DRASTIC AT FIRST. THE REAL COLD AIR WILLGRADUALLY INVADE THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.THE NEW 00Z NAM HAS COME IN COLDER THURSDAY...AND ESSENTIALLY ALLGUIDANCE BUT THE SREF IS INDICATING TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZINGACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATIONBEGINS TO DEVELOP. SINCE THE AIR IS SO COLD UPSTREAM IN THE SOURCEREGION...AND THESE FRONTS TEND TO RUN A LITTLE COLDER THANMODEL FORECASTS...HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FREEZING RAINAND WINTER STORM WATCH TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWESTZONES. IT IS TOO TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER IMPACTS WILL BEGINIMMEDIATELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FELT THAT THE WATCH STARTINGAT 0Z WAS CUTTING IT TOO CLOSE.AGAIN THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST FORTHURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE NOT CHANGED ANY OF THE FORECASTEDSENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT ALL LOOKSGOOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY END UP BEING MORE SLEET THAN FREEZINGRAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL FORSURE. HOWEVER PLACING A PERCENT LIKELIHOOD OF WINTER STORM WARNINGCRITERIA BEING MET IS TOUGH AT THIS POINT. WPC NOW INDICATES THEDFW METROPLEX AND NORTHEAST INTO PARIS HAVE A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCEOF A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAYMORNING. WATCH CRITERIA THRESHOLD IS A 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVELWHILE WARNING IS 80 PERCENT. SO GOING BY THIS PIECE OF GUIDANCE WESHOULD ISSUE A WATCH NOW. HOWEVER IT IS CONCERNING THE SREF ISSTILL FORECASTING A MARGINAL FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR THIS REGIONWHICH LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE. IT IS ALSO CONCERNING THAT THE WARMNOSE WILL BE VERY WARM...AND RAIN DROPS WILL LIKELY TRANSPORT WARMAIR TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD INHIBIT ICE ACCUMULATION ANDIMPACTS. ON THE FLIP SIDE IT IS VERY CONCERNING THAT THE AIRTEMPERATURES MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAYAND SATURDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES. THIS MEANS IF ICE AND/OR SLEET ISSIGNIFICANT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ICE ON ROADS MAYLINGER INTO SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WHEN COINCIDENTALLY ANOTHER SHOT ATWINTER PRECIP ARRIVES. THE ISSUE IS THAT THIS EVENT UNLIKE THELAST MARGINAL/NON-EVENT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGEDWINTRY IMPACTS WHICH IS MORE REASON TO RAISE PUBLIC AWARENESS NOWAND GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD TO INCLUDE MOREAREA.NOTE THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TOA WARNING...BUT AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THE ENTIRE WATCH AREAWILL BE IN AT LEAST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT ANDFRIDAY MORNING. IT IS TOO EARLY TO FINE TUNE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTSOR ENTERTAIN WHO WILL SEE WHAT IMPACTS...AND THOSE WILL COME LATERAS CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Icy conditions expected now in CLL Friday night and Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Much of Texas to take a direct discharge of Arctic air Monday. Full blown McFarland signature to 500mb pattern. Perhaps the coldest air in nearly 20 years at DFW. Lows next Wednesday morning could be in the single digits. Both ECWMF and GFS are showing just that. GFS had 15 below zero in parts of central Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Icy conditions expected now in CLL Friday night and Saturday That doesn't help. Now, 6Z GFS holds out some hope for class cancellations (final exam week seemed to be about this time, IIRC) mid week CLL and AUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Dallas area (my Mom lives in Bedford) New 6Z GFS much wetter, and when it is really starting to pour down midnight Friday morning/Thursday night, that is a stout warm nose, that is a liquid sounding, not a sleet sounding. Verbatim, still liquid rain at this point, surface just reaching freezing. But there'll probably be a healthy amount of the 3/4" liquid equivalent falling in the following six hours that will coat trees, power lines and overpasses before possibly changing to sleet. The warm ground and all, I'd bet even below freezing at 2 meters, it'll stay water for a while on the ground and streets, some will run off or absorb into the ground, but the trees and power lines wouldn't take too long to cool to freezing, then the rural overpasses, then the untreated surface streets, again, almost certainly in time to cancel school Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 That doesn't help. Now, 6Z GFS holds out some hope for class cancellations (final exam week seemed to be about this time, IIRC) mid week CLL and AUS. Final exams here at A&M are from this Fri through next Wed (I've got a killer Data Methods final on Wed I'd love to get out of). Unfortunately, I've also got to fly up to MN next Thurs through DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Second wave will be colder than modeled, I suspect (and it's modeled as very cold as of now). 500mb pattern, snow cover and dense arctic cold air all suggest that models are still in catchup mode, which is usual with most severe arctic shots. The 500mb pattern goes from a severe -EPO pattern to strongish west coast ridging, the best pattern to shepherd arctic cold air south. There's a modeled short wave coming south from the backside of the trough at the time, elongating and giving the trough a more positive tilt, which would strengthen the STJ and moisten the atmosphere. The modeled air is very dry, so it would need a strong s/w to direct enough moisture for wintry precipitation. A NW MX ULL slowly ejecting ENE wouldn't hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah, next week's shot looks like it could be very cold to me. FWD mentioned that models seemed to be having a somewhat difficult time grasping the intensity of the cold air for this go around, and I imagine it'll be the same for next week. Interestingly enough, mid-range guidance is hinting at a bit of shortwave energy being left behind from the full-latitude trough. I'm not really expecting much of it at the moment, but with the very cold air in place, it could be something to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Second wave will be colder than modeled, I suspect (and it's modeled as very cold as of now). 500mb pattern, snow cover and dense arctic cold air all suggest that models are still in catchup mode, which is usual with most severe arctic shots. The 500mb pattern goes from a severe -EPO pattern to strongish west coast ridging, the best pattern to shepherd arctic cold air south. There's a modeled short wave coming south from the backside of the trough at the time, elongating and giving the trough a more positive tilt, which would strengthen the STJ and moisten the atmosphere. The modeled air is very dry, so it would need a strong s/w to direct enough moisture for wintry precipitation. A NW MX ULL slowly ejecting ENE wouldn't hurt Heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Heh... 12042013 12Z GEFS gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_25.png 12042013 12Z GEFS gfs-ens_apcpn24_namer_24.png 12042013 12Z GEFS gfs-ens_z500a_namer_25.png Well, if the models are underestimating the above. There is no hope! ECMWF is down to 3°F for DFW for next Wednesday morning which is only 5 degrees shy of the all time record for the month of -1°F. If single digits verify, it would be the earliest date ever recorded of single digit temperatures for DFW. Not to mention finally breaking the 18 year long stretch of no single digit temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I don't know how the web site wxmaps.org generates p-types on its meteograms, but almost an inch of freezing rain in DFW is a *big story*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I don't know how the web site wxmaps.org generates p-types on its meteograms, but almost an inch of freezing rain in DFW is a *big story*. That would mean several days of going nowhere. Looks like temps may not even climb above freezing on Monday, if so, just barely, not enough to melt something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Is this real life Jim Cantore @JimCantore 3h Starting my coverage in #Dallas tomorrow morning. Little Rock and #Memphis you are very much in play for significant ICE! #Cleon Collapse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 CPC is quite liberal with the pink in their latest hazards update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 WS Warning out for FWD. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ103&warncounty=TXC121&firewxzone=TXZ103&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning#.Up-dfyeE7kY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 HPC/WPC Forecaster Kocin is at the forecast desk this afternoon and he has updated the icing potential and as we can see, the chances have increased for portions of Central and SE Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Ice Storm Warning issued for the NW portions of E TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 My parents in NE Texas are in the bullseye for this; I'll try to keep updates on the area. They'll definitely lose power for an extensive time, ala 2000 where it was out two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Is this real life Jim Cantore @JimCantore 3h Starting my coverage in #Dallas tomorrow morning. Little Rock and #Memphis you are very much in play for significant ICE! #Cleon Collapse So if Jim is showing up maybe it will happen, he loves extreme weather and it follows him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Looks like the 18z GFS came in a tad warmer or started precip sooner, a good portion of the liquid falls at DFW while above or just at freezing. We saw with the last system how a robust stubborn warm nose can keep things liquid longer than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 According to the SPC mesoanalysis site, the freezing line has crashed through the line from Oklahoma City over to Memphis, Texas as it marches SE tonight. IMBY, down to 55 from 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Don't trust 18z gfs - no ensemble support. Will wait for 0z nam before beginning to worry. This cold airmass has been busting numbers, so dont think it will be like last time. Also noticed warm nose may be too high up for heat transfer to surface and perhaps more sleet may be involved than we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Don't trust 18z gfs - no ensemble support. Will wait for 0z nam before beginning to worry. This cold airmass has been busting numbers, so dont think it will be like last time. Also noticed warm nose may be too high up for heat transfer to surface and perhaps more sleet may be involved than we think. FWD sounds like they are going to go "all in" on this after being pretty conservative in their discussions the last couple of days. Evening update sounds pretty ominous for us up here in the northern burbs: 000 FXUS64 KFWD 050328 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 928 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013 .UPDATE... THE EVENING BALLOON DATA HAS BEEN ANALYZED AND AT 850MB IT INDICATES VERY COLD AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS IS NOW POURING SOUTH. DODGE CITY REPORTED -10C AT 850MB AND NORTH PLATTE HAD -17C WITH NORTH WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURES WERE NOW RISING TO OUR NORTHWEST...IN RESPONSE TO THE VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING ABOVE THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ACROSS THE PLAINS GIVE A BETTER INDICATION OF WHAT OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THAN THE CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES THERE DO. THIS IS BECAUSE THE AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT UNDERGOES GRADUAL SUBSIDENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE AT A GIVEN LOCATION. 850MB IS A GREAT LEVEL TO ANALYZE ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA FOR AN APPROXIMATION OF WHAT OUR SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE HERE. ASSUMING ONLY ADIABATIC COMPRESSIONAL WARMING TAKES PLACE .../I.E. NO SUNSHINE/RADIATIVE/LATENT HEAT CHANGES OCCUR/... THE -10C EXTRAPOLATES TO SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 30S F AND THE -17C TO MID 20S F. THIS AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO OF NOTE...THE 6-12 HOUR OLD FORECASTS FROM THE GFS/SREF/NAM WERE 2-4 DEG C TOO WARM AT 850MB ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALL OF THIS RAISES OUR CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE THE SPEED OF THIS COLD AIR AND THAT THE COLDER TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE EARLIER. THE RAP HAS SO FAR DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH THIS FRONT AND IT IS FORECASTING THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA BY SUNRISE. AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS TOMORROW. THE RAP IS ALSO FORECASTING THE FREEZING LINE TO REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. MEANWHILE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL ORIGINATE ABOVE 700MB OR ABOUT 10000 FEET WHICH WILL LIMIT ITS INTENSITY. FURTHERMORE THE AIR BELOW IT WILL BE VERY DRY AND SOME OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE LOST TO EVAPORATION BEFORE IT CAN REACH THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS IT IS LIKELY THAT PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE 20S. WHILE GROUND SURFACES ARE STILL VERY WARM...TEMPS IN THE 20S AND WINDS OF 15 MPH WILL BE ENOUGH TO COOL ELEVATED SURFACES/BRIDGES BELOW FREEZING TO START ACCUMULATING ICE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINTER STORM WARNING BEGINS AT NOON IN THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A CISCO TO WEATHERFORD TO SHERMAN LINE AND THIS REGION MAY BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS BY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE. EITHER WAY FEEL THAT IT IS TOO LOW OF A RISK FOR IMPACTS TO BRING THE WARNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EVEN THOUGH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY BEGIN TO SHOW UP ON CARS AND TREES BY THE AFTERNOON RUSH. THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WERE TO INCREASE ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-20. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION. EVEN DESPITE THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RAIN DROPS THAT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THEY REACH THE GROUND...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LIKELY IN 20S ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. WE ARE PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT DENTON...COLLIN...COOKE...GRAYSON...AND FANNIN COUNTIES WHERE THE JUXTAPOSITION OF HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ICING OF TREES IN THIS AREA WOULD LEAD TO LIMB BREAKAGE AND POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR DAYS IN SOME COMMUNITIES. FURTHERMORE NOT ALL TREES HAVE LOST THEIR LEAVES YET WHICH WILL ADD TO TREE LIMB STRESS DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF MORE ICE. MORE SLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ICE ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND HOPEFULLY MITIGATE DAMAGE TO THE POWER GRID BUT IT IS A TOUGH CALL. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20...SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS WILL OCCUR FROM ICE ON ROADS. ICE MAY LINGER FOR DAYS AS SKIES STAY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER SHOT AT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL BE UPDATING THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCREASE THE SEVERITY OF THE WORDING AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Is your "bust" sensor going off, hotep? Mine isn't. When they're talking about thunder in the mid twenties. it feels like the real deal. Just to be safe I bought groceries and firewood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The usual models are only beginning to catch up with the ferocity and reinforcements of this arctic blast. We had a wind shift from the SW to WSW about 11:10 pm without a perceptible drop in temp or dewpoint...yet. Our 06Z OT model had the fastest run I've ever seen... ...in through the front door at an unprecedented speed. Logging a regression of speed vs. drop in temperature over the course of the week, the predicted low next Tuesday night is 18°F in CLL OT = orange tabby Seriously, that's the fastest I've ever seen a 13 year old cat as fat and generally lazy as Garfield run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Is your "bust" sensor going off, hotep? Mine isn't. When they're talking about thunder in the mid twenties. it feels like the real deal. Just to be safe I bought groceries and firewood. Down to 34, IMBY, it looks like temp drops are still ahead of schedule. I'm wondering if we can possibly squeeze out some sleet and cut down on ice accumulation tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 WeatherBELL global weather maps & data - Free 7-day Trial Subscription Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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