Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[Ed Lizard]

Cold w/o accompanying Winter precip is a buzzkill.  Nothing against a good 2004, 2008 or 2009 snow miracle.  But new GFS is just cold for SETX.  And I'm assuming that beyond the truncation if the GFS is generally correct, its difficulty with shallow cold air masses will only be magnified.

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

Natural glass half full optimism, if that GFS was sort of right but too slow with shallow dense air mass, but otherwise generally right, it could still be potentially interesting.

[wxmx]

Natural glass half full optimism, if that GFS was sort of right but too slow with shallow dense air mass, but otherwise generally right, it could still be potentially interesting.

12z Euro is probably a bit more to your liking....very cold, and if the swinging trough can avoid cutting off near Baja...well...

[msp]

In total agreement with Ed... if we're going to get cold, let's get some actual wintry precip with it.  The few pellets of sleet I saw yesterday doesn't cut it.

[bubba hotep]

From FWD:

 

A NEW ARCTIC HIGH HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA AND
YUKON TERRITORY. IN THE MIDDAY DARKNESS...ARCTIC VILLAGE IN ALASKA
(PARC) IS CURRENTLY AT -35F. THIS FRIGID AIR WILL INTENSIFY AND
DEEPEN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY SPILLING DOWN THE
HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LEADING FRONT WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE 49TH PARALLEL ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE BARRELING
SOUTH. THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON...THERE ARE TYPICALLY LONG
INTERLUDES BETWEEN ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. EVEN IF THESE THAWS ARE
BRIEF...THERE USUALLY IS NOT ENOUGH SNOWPACK TO PREVENT
CONSIDERABLE MODERATION OF THE SUBSEQUENT ARCTIC AIR MASS.
HOWEVER...THIS NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL ENCOUNTER THE MOST
EXPANSIVE SNOW COVER ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON
IN MORE THAN A DECADE. THE FRONT WOULD LIKELY ARRIVE IN NORTH
TEXAS NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT 7-DAY FORECAST. POSTFRONTAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTRODUCED WITH THE THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNIMPRESSED...BUT OUR
INCLINATION IS THAT THIS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST WILL BE STRONGER THAN
PROGGED.

[DFWWeather]

Pattern is looking remarkably similar to December 1983 (DFW went 14 days straight with subfreezing temps). Although, I don't think this next Arctic airmass is quite that strong. This next Arctic surge would likely be enough to send low temps well down into the teens at DFW. The question is, do we get it in pieces are all delivered very quickly.

 

It would be interesting if we can hit the single digits this year at DFW. It has been 17 years and counting since the last time we have done so (longest stretch on record). Climo says we should be doing that at least 1 in 5 years.

[Quixotic1]

In Texas, we gotta get the cold first, then we'll worry about the precip.

1983 was more memorable to me than any other winter, even 1977 - 78. It would take a lot to replicate the results from that outbreak considering how difficult it is to get that big of a high pressure dome in the first place and then avoiding air mass modification due to not only lack of snow pack but the urban heat island effect. Still I'd love to even come close.

Some of those departures were ridiculous. -30s in some instances.

[Ed Lizard]

Still liquid rain verbatim, and it is the past 192 hours, but with GFS and shallow cold air masses, I have to officially start the bidding at glass 1/32nd full optimistic for some kind of freezing/frozen (sure doesn't look like snow) IMBY.

 

Dallas actually does show sleet on the 10th/11th per meteogram. 

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro & GFS hinting at a north of I30 special for DFW on Friday?  FWD is playing it conservative at this point:

 

A POTENTIAL PROBLEM COMES TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A COLD RAIN
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A NOTABLE WARM NOSE ALOFT. GIVEN THE
OBVIOUSLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
ON DAY 7 IN A CHANGING PATTERN...HAVE KEPT THE PRECIPITATION ALL
RAIN WITH LOWS ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

[Srain]

The Day 11+ analogs continue to point toward a December 2008 scenario which brought tied the earliest accumulating snow to Houston every recorded dating back to 1944 to be broken the following year in early December 2009. It will be interesting to see if we see a similar pattern develop that brought a cold core 5H low across New Mexico and Texas embedded within a noisy sub tropical jet and the Arctic air appears to come in the form of several short waves diving S into the Great Basin and the Desert SW well into the medium/longer range period.

[Ed Lizard]

Not to downplay possibility of Winter fun, but Day 9 Euro, ripping LLJ and 6 am temps into the 60s through all of SETX and LA (and into parts of Arkansas and Mississippi) the Euro has a significant severe signal.  9 days out, but the free Euro LLJ is a useful quick look for severe weather.

 

Decent directional shear between 850 mb and 500 mb as well.  And un-free Euro, I'm guessing even if lapse rates are crappy, with temps in the 60s, there would be enough instability for storms.

 

[Ed Lizard]

Back to rather consistent signals from the longer range GFS of Winter Excitement...

[DFWWeather]

Both the 0z and 12z runs of the deterministic ECMWF has DFW near 10°F early next week with H85 temps at or below -10°C. Not to mention on 120 hour the surface 32°F isotherm well south of DFW with liquid QPF approaching 0.25 inches.

[wxmx]

Would this fit the definition of 'historic cold'?

 

[Ed Lizard]

FWD has already issued a special weather statement for late week/weekend icy hijinks.

 

 

BTW, I believe it got into the single digits Farenheit in Austin before December 1989.  I could look it up, but nah.  You'd have to be more than 20ºC below normal to get that cold in AUS.  I think Dallas went below 0ºF

 

 

It'd still kill plants, the verbatim 12Z GFS -4.5ºC IMBY, I think the Washingtonia would survive, the water oak is already drought stressed, but hanging in, my citrus is too tall and thorny for frost wrap.

 

Did I mention, sans freezing/frozen, Winter cold is a drag?

[DFWWeather]

FWD has already issued a special weather statement for late week/weekend icy hijinks.

 

 

BTW, I believe it got into the single digits Farenheit in Austin before December 1989.  I could look it up, but nah.  You'd have to be more than 20ºC below normal to get that cold in AUS.  I think Dallas went below 0ºF

 

 

It'd still kill plants, the verbatim 12Z GFS -4.5ºC IMBY, I think the Washingtonia would survive, the water oak is already drought stressed, but hanging in, my citrus is too tall and thorny for frost wrap.

 

Did I mention, sans freezing/frozen, Winter cold is a drag?

 

 

The last time DFW hit single digits was February 1996 and we hit 8°F in a pattern not to dissimilar to the upcoming pattern. This is an abnormally long stretch for us not to fall below 10°F. In fact, it is the longest stretch on record. We should be doing it 1 in 5 years based on climo.

 

You are correct on December 23, 1989 DFW hit -1°F.

[Quixotic1]

FWD has already issued a special weather statement for late week/weekend icy hijinks.

 

 

BTW, I believe it got into the single digits Farenheit in Austin before December 1989.  I could look it up, but nah.  You'd have to be more than 20ºC below normal to get that cold in AUS.  I think Dallas went below 0ºF

 

 

It'd still kill plants, the verbatim 12Z GFS -4.5ºC IMBY, I think the Washingtonia would survive, the water oak is already drought stressed, but hanging in, my citrus is too tall and thorny for frost wrap.

 

Did I mention, sans freezing/frozen, Winter cold is a drag?

 

In the words of Indiana Jones:  "Freezing rain.  Why'd it have to be freezing rain?"  Sounds like they're hedging their bets on temperature profiles and the dendritic growth zone, so maybe we'll get some snow/sleet instead.

 

December 23rd Bergstrom recorded 6 degrees so you are correct.  Mabry was at 4.  

[bubba hotep]

In the words of Indiana Jones:  "Freezing rain.  Why'd it have to be freezing rain?"  Sounds like they're hedging their bets on temperature profiles and the dendritic growth zone, so maybe we'll get some snow/sleet instead.

 

December 23rd Bergstrom recorded 6 degrees so you are correct.  Mabry was at 4

 

Yeah, freezing rain is pretty much worthless.  This event seemed like it had some potential but it looks like all the fun will be up in Oklahoma, unless we see a big shift south.  I’m not even sure this will be much more than a glazing /freezing mist event for us, since it looks like most of the precipitation falls before we go below freezing.  Then after that not much else falls and there is a nasty warm nose during most of it.  On the bright side, it looks like our source region will be recharging with another cold dump possible around mid-month. 

 

ETA: It looks like precipitation would be falling mostly at night /early morning for both rounds, so that is a bonus.  Also, these shallow cold spells seem to always come in faster than modeled.  I guess all those winters in DC have left me jaded, even though I saw some great winters up there and have been very lucky with snow, IMBY, since moving to Texas.

[Quixotic1]

Yeah, freezing rain is pretty much worthless. This event seemed like it had some potential but it looks like all the fun will be up in Oklahoma, unless we see a big shift south. I’m not even sure this will be much more than a glazing /freezing mist event for us, since it looks like most of the precipitation falls before we go below freezing. Then after that not much else falls and there is a nasty warm nose during most of it. On the bright side, it looks like our source region will be recharging with another cold dump possible around mid-month.

ETA: It looks like precipitation would be falling mostly at night /early morning for both rounds, so that is a bonus. Also, these shallow cold spells seem to always come in faster than modeled. I guess all those winters in DC have left me jaded, even though I saw some great winters up there and have been very lucky with snow, IMBY, since moving to Texas.

I've been around here since the early 70s. With the exception of the mid to late 70s and the last ten years or so, the overrunning into shallow arctic air producing freezing rain and sleet is more the rule than snow. But if the cold is here, at least theres a chance for a surprise.

I saw those runs around the 13th. Brrrr.

[famartin]

I have placed a topic in the general forum regarding the revised NWS snow measurement guide...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41853-new-nws-snow-measurement-guide/

[Ed Lizard]

Yeah, it is the NAM at 84 hours, but it supports the 12Z Euro's school cancelling ice storm for Dallas Friday.

 

Rain below freezing with 850 mb temps over 10C.

[bubba hotep]

Yeah, it is the NAM at 84 hours, but it supports the 12Z Euro's school cancelling ice storm for Dallas Friday.

 

Rain below freezing with 850 mb temps over 10C.

 

And the 00z GFS looks pretty sketchy Friday morning as well.  Add in the fact that the cold air will probably slide in faster than the GFS is showing and there might be some decent icing potential.

 

ETA: 00z GFS looks more robust with the precipitation and a tad cooler with the second round on Saturday night.

[North Balti Zen]

Work trip bringing me from the winter weather fail of Baltimore to Dallas for Thursday/Friday, will be lurking this thread to see everyone's thoughts on what Friday may hold...not that I have anything against Dallas per se, but would sure not want to stuck there in an ice event, all things being equal...

[NJ_Ken]

NE Balti: I am a recent transplant from the Philly area to the southern plains. Obviously, we have a day or two before the finer details are going to be dialed in, but I will say that you are correct to be concerned about being in Dallas for an ice storm. As you say, it has nothing to do with Dallas or its people (though as an Eagles fan, I am sworn to hate them on NFL Sundays. Lol.). The simple fact is they are not geared up to deal with serious frozen precipitation. They have limited salt trucks and virtually no plows if they happen to get snow. Worse, their highways include these massive, high-elevation ramps and overpasses that freeze up instantly in bad weather and turn into ice rinks. The airports are not much better so, if you are planning to fly on on Friday... well, get ready to spend some time at the airport.

[North Balti Zen]

Thanks NJ_Ken, in a perfect world, the trip would be pulled, but I am an atty and it is a specially set oral argument for federal court on Friday, and they are slow to call those off early.

 

Will def watch this closely with you all.

[DFWWeather]

Not to mention the horrible ice storm forecasted by 0z ECMWF on Friday, but it also has a severe shot of Arctic air early next week with temps below 10°F possible by middle of next week. I'm concerned the pattern goes into the tank with subfreezing temps Friday, Saturday, and possibly Sunday (potentially 60 hours) before the severe dump of Arctic air which would put us below freezing much if not all of next week.

[NJ_Ken]

Thanks NJ_Ken, in a perfect world, the trip would be pulled, but I am an atty and it is a specially set oral argument for federal court on Friday, and they are slow to call those off early.

 

Will def watch this closely with you all.

 

In a previous life, I traveled 10+ days per month so, unfortunately, I know what you are going through.  Obviously, when you have friends and/or family at home, that is always the preferred place to hang your hat at the end of the day, but, all things considered, there are most definitely worse things in life than being forced to spend an extra day in a hotel, eating room service and watching winter weather happening outside your window. 

 

Look on the bright side, it can't be any worse than the 3 days I spent at an O'Hare Airport Holiday Inn eating fast food (I didn't have a car so downtown Chicago might as well have been the moon) and waiting for the East Coast to reopen after Hurricane Sandy.... or the 3 days I spent sleeping on a friend's couch in Nashville, Tennessee while the east coast got walloped by and then dug out from PD II way back in 2003.  LOL.   

[bubba hotep]

PD II way back in 2003.  LOL.   

 

Good times! It seemed like it snowed all winter that year.  That was my first DC area winter and I remember it just being miserably cold (to me!) from like Halloween on.

 

Speaking of snow, the 00z Euro looks like it crashes the 850s and we might even end as snow up here in the NE burbs.  I don't have access to high res Euro mpas or soundings, but I kind of like the Euro trends.

[Quixotic1]

It also looks like the GFS has DFW having a hard time getting above freezing for a good chunk of time.  No respite like in previous runs. 

[Ed Lizard]

AUS and CLL may pick up a little freezing rain Saturday, but if freezing rain is sort of worthless, freezing rain on a weekend when nobody misses school is completely worthless.

 

 

Looking at the GFS soundings, Dallas probably goes over to sleet before sun-up Friday, but any freezing liquid at all, and I suspect they'll get some, should cancel school.