Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[bubba hotep]

The GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles are hinting at major Arctic air (serious cross polar flow) invading the lower 48 around or after December 6th through 10th.

Yeah, I've been watching that timeframe for a few days now. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[DFWWeather]

The Arctic shot is truly looking quite impressive late next week! -35°C air at H85 near US/Canadian border on some models. McFarland Sig anyone?

 

[wxmx]

The Arctic shot is truly looking quite impressive late next week! -35°C air at H85 near US/Canadian border on some models. McFarland Sig anyone?

 

 

500mb remain unfavorable for the cold to be delivered south, but cold doesn't disappear, and if the trough can swing east, it will get very interesting.

 

In 1983, the 500mb wasn't that favorable either, but the main PV was further east, and all the energy in the NW Pac got cut off, while the main trough (sans the STJ) swinged east, so that opened the gates to all the dammed cold. In normal circumstances, the 500mb setup wouldn't be too cold, but massive 570+dm engulfed all AK and part of the NW Territories, creating a 1060mb high, which is nearly unstoppable. Heights in AK in 1983 peaked at 582+dm, I think

[DFWWeather]

500mb remain unfavorable for the cold to be delivered south, but cold doesn't disappear, and if the trough can swing east, it will get very interesting.

 

In 1983, the 500mb wasn't that favorable either, but the main PV was further east, and all the energy in the NW Pac got cut off, while the main trough (sans the STJ) swinged east, so that opened the gates to all the dammed cold. In normal circumstances, the 500mb setup wouldn't be too cold, but massive 570+dm engulfed all AK and part of the NW Territories, creating a 1060mb high, which is nearly unstoppable. Heights in AK in 1983 peaked at 582+dm, I think

Interesting you bring up 1983 as that was one of the analogs that showed up on GFS ensemble.

[Ed Lizard]

1983, I remember the sprinklers at NTC Orlando 32813 creating ice everywhere.

 

 

 

I hope not, I like having neighbors with full sized orange trees. 

 

In 2009, my orange tree died, as did my supposedly cold tolerant Canary Island Pygmy Date Palm, which cheesed me as people on my block had Manila palms which aren't cold tolerant at all, and they didn't die.  I frost wrap, but my plants tend to die.  Except the Washingtonia.

 

Plus I've managed to keep my drought stressed water oak alive this long, but it usually loses about a third of its leaves in a normal Winter, so cold is obviously a stressor.  Who knows how it'd handle a hard freeze.

[Srain]

Sleet reported now in CLL.

[Srain]

Sleet/rain mix reported in Huntsville.

[Srain]

HGX has received a report of snow SW of Huntsville.

[ams30721us]

I saw the cloud tops cooling this morning. Good to hear the ground reports! Keep them coming!

[Srain]

Sleet mixing with light rain in NW Harris County now.

[Srain]

Rain/snow mix in Anderson (Grimes County) reported by Grimes County SO. Sleet/rain mix in North Harris County. (Veterans Memorial @ FM 1960)

[Srain]

Rain/snow mix reported in Conroe (Montgomery County). Also sleet/rain mix reported in Cypress (NW Harris County).

[ams30721us]

Thanks Srain! Great information! seems that level continues to drop over the Lakes!

[Srain]

When we do see wintry weather in SE Texas, cold core U/L's tend to offer a surprise or two if they can track right over us as this one is currently doing.

[ams30721us]

Not going to lie, this is pretty exciting! Big fat snowflakes falling in Trinity, TX per NWS LCH Met.

[bubba hotep]

Pictures! We need pictures!

[ams30721us]

Pictures! We need pictures!

https://www.facebook.com/?ref=tn_tnmn#!/photo.php?fbid=425394454256422&set=a.260762100719659.17714484.235622429900293&type=1&theater

[ams30721us]

NWS MET says all snow west of Livingston,TX now.

[ams30721us]

video from Groveton,TX

 

https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?v=441592489275871

[Srain]

HGX reports snow sticking now in Livingston

[Ed Lizard]

Just a very light drizzle at the Galleria. 

[Srain]

Snow/rain mix reported in Houston along Loop 610 N. Also snow reported in The Woodlands mixed with some rain.

[Ed Lizard]

Gone from drizzle to a light shower.  I heard a few random pings standing outside staring at automotive sheetmetal, but saw nothing.  Pings may or may not have been a lonely sleet pellet.  610 between I-10 and US 59, by Westheimer.

[bubba hotep]

DFW and Waco gunning for Top 10 Coldest Thanksgiving

 

FORECAST LOWS THURSDAY
DFW AIRPORT - 28
WACO - 25
TEMPLE - 25
KILLEEN - 28
SHERMAN/DENISON - 24

--------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS/FORT WORTH - COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING

1 21 NOVEMBER 30, 1911
2 23 NOVEMBER 25, 1993
23 NOVEMBER 30, 1905
4 24 NOVEMBER 24, 1898
5 25 NOVEMBER 24, 1938
6 26 NOVEMBER 27, 1975
7 27 NOVEMBER 28, 1912
8 28 NOVEMBER 28, 2002
9 29 NOVEMBER 23, 1989
10 30 NOVEMBER 22, 1984
30 NOVEMBER 27, 1952
30 NOVEMBER 23, 1950

--------------------------------------------------------------------

WACO - COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING

1 19 NOVEMBER 30, 1911
2 25 NOVEMBER 24, 1938
3 27 NOVEMBER 25, 1993
27 NOVEMBER 27, 1975
5 28 NOVEMBER 28, 2002
28 NOVEMBER 25, 1937
7 30 NOVEMBER 27, 1980
30 NOVEMBER 22, 1979
30 NOVEMBER 22, 1945
30 NOVEMBER 28, 1912

--------------------------------------------------------------------

[DoctorMu]

Wintry mix near Navasota about noon.  Cold core low FTW

 

Unfortunately, I was paying far too much attention to my work-related duties today and missed out     

[1900hurricane]

I drove down from College Station to just east of Navasota around 12:30 today hoping to intercept some snow and ended up getting lucky. Ended up parking near the intersection of 105 and FM 362 and got a bunch of wet flakes mixed in with the rain. They all melted on contact, but it was very obviously snow and I considered the chase a success.

[Quixotic1]

congrats to all those who saw flakes. :0)

[wxmx]

10+ days looks frigid...near historical frigid

[bubba hotep]

10+ days looks frigid...near historical frigid

 

I've been watching this timeframe for a bit now... seems to have potential.

 

[DFWWeather]

Still looks quite impressive. 564 heights into Alaska. A lot of low level cold in such a pattern. Cold looks to overwhelm! Concern Texas gets a bit more direct of a hit with such a setup. Brrr just thinking about it!!!