Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[Ed Lizard]

Potential Caribbean/Gulf system looks like a non-factor locally, and the late week front looks less and less impressive.

 

I didn't get much rain the past 3 days either.

 

Warm to hot, dry, and depressing.

 

0Z GFS, it rains on the 27th...

[Ed Lizard]

One way or the other, 92L will have little affect on local weather.  The weak, no/slight development solutions are slightly better for our rain chances. 

 

Heavy rain on commute home, cloud to ground in my neighborhood, but barely enough rain to dampen the streets or sidewalks.  Excluding the 2008 and 2009 snow miracles, local weather has generally been a complete exercise in drought and boredom since Rita in 2005.  Even Rita was only about an inch.

 

 

Pretty confident now will go five years  since 50 knot wind gusts IMBY.  Another month,

[Ed Lizard]

Bring on Winter.

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

Yesterday's happy rains delayed Galveston weekend a bit over 12 hours.

 

 

NWUS54 KHGX 170124
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
824 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THE WOODLANDS           30.16N  95.49W
08/16/2013                   MONTGOMERY         TX   PUBLIC

            TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN AROUND THE WOODLANDS MALL AREA
            AND RESEARCH PARK DRIVE.

0609 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W HOUSTON             29.77N  95.42W
08/16/2013  M63 MPH          HARRIS             TX   PUBLIC

            63 MPH AT THE MEDICAL CENTER AIRPORT JUST WEST OF
            DOWNTOWN HOUSTON.

0624 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PEARLAND                29.56N  95.28W
08/16/2013                   BRAZORIA           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...FENCES DOWN...POWERS LINES
            DOWN...TRANSFORMERS BLOWN...POWER OUTAGES IN
            PEARLAND...FROM HWY 35 TO HWY 288.

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PEARLAND                29.56N  95.28W
08/16/2013                   BRAZORIA           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER POLES DOWN AT FM 518 AND CULLEN IN
            PEARLAND...ESTIMATED WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH FROM TRAINED
            SPOTTER.

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PEARLAND                29.56N  95.28W
08/16/2013                   BRAZORIA           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FENCES DOWN AND TREES UPROOTED AND LAYING OVER ALONG
            CULLEN BOULEVARD IN PEARLAND..

0637 PM     TSTM WND GST     PEARLAND                29.56N  95.28W
08/16/2013  E60 MPH          BRAZORIA           TX   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS IN PEARLAND.

0637 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MANVEL                  29.48N  95.36W
08/16/2013                   BRAZORIA           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AROUND MANVEL AND 288 AREA.

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N BONNEY              29.33N  95.46W
08/16/2013                   BRAZORIA           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN ROSHARON.

0728 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW ANGLETON           29.19N  95.45W
08/16/2013                   BRAZORIA           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN THE CENTRAL AREAS OF THE COUNTY NEAR
            ANGLETON AND HOLIDAY LAKES.

0804 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND PALACIOS                28.71N  96.24W
08/16/2013  M44 MPH          MATAGORDA          TX   ASOS

            PSX OBSERVATION


&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300158 HGX1300159 HGX1300163 HGX1300160 HGX1300162
HGX1300161 HGX1300165 HGX1300166 HGX1300167 HGX1300164

$$

KP

 

 

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Fairly active radar early this morning with numerous thunderstorms around Matagorda Bay and activity developing along the coast into Galveston Bay.

 

Slug of deep tropical moisture with PWS near 2.0 inches which had been across the central Gulf of Mexico has advanced toward the coast overnight. This tropical air mass will continue to spread inland with showers and thunderstorms moving inland along the seabreeze front.

 

Good news is that the ever present upper level high that has been over TX for much of the summer is shifting northward and allowing deep easterly flow to develop…which will open the area to westward moving tropical waves. Without any increase in mid and upper level heights and no mid level warming…capping…expect near daily rain chances of 30-40% for the next several days. Tropical waves will help to enhance daily rain chances as they pass across the region. One such wave looks to arrive over the weekend with rain chances possibly peaking out in the 50% range.

 

While not a drought breaker, this pattern is wetter than the recent several weeks and hopefully most areas will see some wetting rainfall over the next several days. Clouds and rainfall will keep temperatures near normal for mid August.  

[DoctorMu]

Close to ideal tropical scenario for the coast with a series of waves retrograding toward us...maybe a few showers sneak up to CLL  Little chance of named stuff with shear in the Caribbean and dry air whacking the mid-Atlantic.

 

 

[DoctorMu]

Do me a favor, open the door.  Let 'em in.

 

[Ed Lizard]

Weenie hotlinks I shared on local KHOU-TV 11 (KHOU stands for Houston!) weather forum (I posted a modified version of these hotlinks, but as attachments in the main tropical forum, testing the very bounds of weenieism in the main tropical thread), and new 12Z NAM almost closes off a surface low, almost, and would probably warrant a lemon in the Northern Gulf if it even came close to verifying.  Might even get a flight scheduled on the POD Saturday, that would be cancelled around 1300Z the next morning.

 

If/when Eastern Gulf blob dies, attacked loop when it looked good on main tropics thread.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edit to add:  10% Lemonade!!!!!

 

 

[DoctorMu]

 

[Ed Lizard]

Weenie optimism fail.

 

New GFS less than half an inch of rain the next 10 days in the Houston metro North of I-10, half to three quarters South of I-10.

 

[DoctorMu]

Tongue of Gulf Moisture and storms lapping the coast.  Hope the AggieDome/ULH gives way enough to let some showers reach CLL this afternoon.  End of the week looks brutal again with temps back to triple digits.

[wxmx]

Yesterday

[Ed Lizard]

Yesterday

arcoiris.jpg

 

 

Do you know how many restaurants have images of La Silla in Houston?  How many pickup trucks have it airbrushed on them?

[wxmx]

Do you know how many restaurants have images of La Silla in Houston?  How many pickup trucks have it airbrushed on them?

I know, I visit the city every year...

[Ed Lizard]

This does have a way of making less than a tenth of an inch of rain in a week look exciting.

[DoctorMu]

^It's carnage out there right now.  101° around Labor Day weekend does not stimulate joy 

 

More brutality for the next week to 10 days

 

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

^It's carnage out there right now.  101° around Labor Day weekend does not stimulate joy 

 

More brutality for the next week to 10 days

 

 

 

 

 

The I hotlinked the 16 day GFS at the KHOU forum at the beginning of August, and it pretty much nailed the lack of rain, 0Z and 12Z runs, updating daily.  Half an inch or less for most of Texas, and no reason really to doubt it.

[Ed Lizard]

Unreliable tropical update for Texas and Louisiana, provided by a rank amateur.

 

 Models still track West Caribbean wave into the Yucatan, for what it is worth, 18Z (NAM) actually suggesting a possible TD for Mexico, and, since 97L in embedded in what seems like a monsoonal trough, with a broad area of light West winds ahead of it South of the trough line, it may come further West into the Caribbean, and if it can somehow miraculously escape beneath the semi-persistent East Coast trough, well.

 

 

Although I'd prefer a non-tropical origin system that rains, provides forum excitement, maybe provides an excuse not to go to work/school, but leaves beach properties intact.  Florida and South Texas canes (especially a Dolly-esque storm that put my yard in deep Easterly flow, enough to overcome subsidence and produce enhanced showers), or Tampico Terrors, well, not as good as rain.  Sprinklers go on stun in the lawn, 6 pm almost.

 

 

12Z Euro is an extreme example of what happens if 97L never develops, it crosses the Yucatan headed West and Northwest to a Mexican/South Texas landfall as a tropical wave.  Looking at GFS and Euro heights, if 97L becomes substantial before about 70W, there is no way it doesn't get pulled North.  After 70W, both models the trough moving East and the heights building, but both models show some energy diving around the ridge in 6 days, which could pull a possible system into the Eastern Gulf.  And to Florida.  Which is 2 months short of 8 years w/o a cane.

 

For lovers of a hurricane hitting Mexico or Deep South Texas, Euro through day 6, a trackable wave dodging the second little vortex coming around the top of the building ridge, is near ideal.  The non-development after, of course, is not, it would have to start developing in the climatologically favored Western Caribbean as soon as it gets past this point.

 

 

 

 

Hotlink (not uploaded, time sensitive but makes this post one stop shopping for latest imagery (potentially good for 97L for a week) of 97L and Western Caribbean wave.

[Srain]

000

ABNT20 KNHC 312342

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM

AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A

TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER

ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM

REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED

SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT

CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE

MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW

CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND

LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO

SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS

ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[DoctorMu]

 

Unreliable tropical update for Texas and Louisiana, provided by a rank amateur.

 

 Models still track West Caribbean wave into the Yucatan, for what it is worth, 18Z (NAM) actually suggesting a possible TD for Mexico, and, since 97L in embedded in what seems like a monsoonal trough, with a broad area of light West winds ahead of it South of the trough line, it may come further West into the Caribbean, and if it can somehow miraculously escape beneath the semi-persistent East Coast trough, well.

 

 

Although I'd prefer a non-tropical origin system that rains, provides forum excitement, maybe provides an excuse not to go to work/school, but leaves beach properties intact.  Florida and South Texas canes (especially a Dolly-esque storm that put my yard in deep Easterly flow, enough to overcome subsidence and produce enhanced showers), or Tampico Terrors, well, not as good as rain.  Sprinklers go on stun in the lawn, 6 pm almost.

 

 

12Z Euro is an extreme example of what happens if 97L never develops, it crosses the Yucatan headed West and Northwest to a Mexican/South Texas landfall as a tropical wave.  Looking at GFS and Euro heights, if 97L becomes substantial before about 70W, there is no way it doesn't get pulled North.  After 70W, both models the trough moving East and the heights building, but both models show some energy diving around the ridge in 6 days, which could pull a possible system into the Eastern Gulf.  And to Florida.  Which is 2 months short of 8 years w/o a cane.

 

For lovers of a hurricane hitting Mexico or Deep South Texas, Euro through day 6, a trackable wave dodging the second little vortex coming around the top of the building ridge, is near ideal.  The non-development after, of course, is not, it would have to start developing in the climatologically favored Western Caribbean as soon as it gets past this point.

 

 

 

 

Hotlink (not uploaded, time sensitive but makes this post one stop shopping for latest imagery (potentially good for 97L for a week) of 97L and Western Caribbean wave.

 

 

 

Could sneak around the underside of Cuba and with a lot of luck provide some lemonade to the Texas coast in about 9 days.  

 

[Ed Lizard]

My pet W Caribbean wave, decent shear, upper/lower divergence/convergence, a blob, but missing appreciable re-existing vorticity.

 

Closer than 97L.

 

[Ed Lizard]

Most boring Summer in post-Columbian history in South East Texas, but I am hoping for a warm ENSO, which often means exciting Winters.  North Texas isn't as boring.  Raining around DFW now.

 

And, of course, not giving up on October recurving East Pac hurricanes like 1994 that set the San Jacinto river on fire.

 

 

30-day average SOI has now fallen for 20 consecutive days and now stands at -1.09. 

 

Easterlies wind anomalies at 200 mb in the central Pacific also suggest that the Walker Circulation is weak right now. 

 

uv200-30d.gif

[Ed Lizard]

My pet W Caribbean wave, decent shear, upper/lower divergence/convergence, a blob, but missing appreciable re-existing vorticity.

 

Closer than 97L.

 

 

20%/30% lemon now.  Lacking model support, I think 30% in 5 days may be over-generous.  GFS been keeping best rain with this system near or South of I-10 last couple of runs.

[DoctorMu]

Got a little frontal boundary event stretching near CLL from Round Rock to Lufkin.  Should ease south with spotty showers.  If we can get some interaction with the sea breeze at PWs in the 2-3" range, there might be some lawn soothing action

 

 

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1228 PM CDT TUE SEP 3 2013

.AVIATION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY IS DEPICTING PW`S AROUND 2" ACROSS THE NE 2/3
OF SE TX EARLY THIS AFTN. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR FURTHER ALOFT
TOO...BUT THINK THAT ONCE WE GET SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING WE SHOULD
START SEEING SOME SCT TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SE TX AND THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE
ALONG THE COAST. AS WE`VE SEEN IN SIMILAR SCENARIOS IN THE
PAST...WILL BE WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE COLLISIONS OF THE 2 LATE IN
THE AFTN/EVNG THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN & GUSTY
WINDS. WILL CARRY VCTS`S IN THE TAFS AND AMEND AS CELLS DEVELOP
NEAR THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. 47

[DoctorMu]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

354 PM CDT THU SEP 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...

DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER START...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STARTING

TO FILL IN NICELY ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. STILL LOOKING AT SUN-

SET AS THE MIDDLE TO NEAR THE END OF THE END OF THIS ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE FCST AS WE REMAIN IN THIS

SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK/WEEKEND...THEN POSSIBLY

BECOMING MORE ACTIVE(!!) NEXT WEEK       . IN THE MEANTIME...SE TX WILL

BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LATEST TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN GULF

WITH SCT MOSTLY DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN STORMS (OVER INLAND AREAS

OF SE TX) AGAIN TOMORROW BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. COVER-

AGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD STAY PRETTY DECENT. PROGS ARE

KEEPING THE TRACK OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WELL SOUTH OF US (ON

SUN) BUT DO KEEP ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TO ACCOUNT

FOR THE CONTINUATION OF SCT PCPN.

LOOKING WAY AHEAD IN THE TIMELINE...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A

THIRD STRONGER EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE HEADING TOWARD THE TX COAST

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TIME THIS IS...

COMFORTABLE WITH THE ISO/SCT POPS WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN THE GRIDS

FOR THESE DAYS. VERY CURIOUS TO SEE IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS KEEP WITH

THIS TREND. 41

[Ed Lizard]

See Dr. Mu's happy post above.

 

Models agree a wave next week won't deliver, (FIM verbatin would be a TD for CRP, but it is a shade excitable),  but will bring a slug of 2.5 inch PW happiness, and while the heaviest rain modelled in the coastal counties of SETX, even a couple of inches of rain during this horribly boring year at my house, with no Winter excitement, a lame Spring severe season, and now completely dead tropics (not to mention the drought), well, I always find the silver lining.

 

 

I missed some brief excitement, the all too rare sea breeze shower activity at my house blew some leaves and twigs down, there was probably a decent little gust front when it hit.

[DoctorMu]

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED INLAND WEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THIS
SYSTEM EARLIER TODAY AND DID NOT FIND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...
AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ANY
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
UNLIKELY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

[Ed Lizard]

Except the analyzed 850 mb vorticity is so close to the Mexican Coast, I'd almost wondering if TD 8 will breed and produce TD 9.  Would not be big ticket if it did....

[DoctorMu]

Weak costal trough pushing some showers inland.  Probably won't be refreshed past Hampstead.  Natural ground water is depleted and trees suffering.  Our city water is full of Na+ and thus is extremely alkaline.  Done the sulfur duty and still leaves drop.

 

 

 

update: literally a scattering of drops on the lawn as a broken line approached Huntsville through Caldwell.  Some robust stuff near Conroe with a bolus stretch back to Beaumont.

 

[Ed Lizard]

Thunder, but just brief sprinkles at the house.  Going outside to water. 

 

From Facebook. Texas Storm Chasers shared somebody else's picture.

My daughter is spending the weekend w/ Momo and Popo this weekend on the Island.  My wife is getting her Master's from SHSU and had homework...

I hope they get pictures.