Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[Eskimo Joe]

So did that westward moving cutoff low help at all with the persistent drought?  I sure hope your guys get a good weather pattern to put a dent in the rainfall deficit and start to recharge the aquifers.

[Ed Lizard]

So did that westward moving cutoff low help at all with the persistent drought?  I sure hope your guys get a good weather pattern to put a dent in the rainfall deficit and start to recharge the aquifers.

 

 

Actually, almost all the state got something out of that.  Radar from 7/15

 

Back to the hot and dry...

 

[Ed Lizard]

Brush fires near Smithville yesterday.  A quarter to a half inch in the next 15 days, that is depressing...

 

 

[DoctorMu]

 

[Ed Lizard]

Checking my 6 hour max temps from AccuWx Euro PPV to see how it compares to GFS half inch or less most of Texas the next 16 days...

 

Not quite 100F in Houston Thurday, but in excess of 105F Wichita Falls.  (most days that way next 8 days, actually) Coastal areas (SETX) generally stay below 100F thanks to our delightful Mediterranean climate (Gets close to exceeding 100F HOU next Tuesday and Wednesday), and maybe a week from Friday, Dallas doesn't exceed 100F.

 

That sub 100F weather for Dallas is getting out towards the end of the 240 hour Euro run, but it could happen.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Ridge of upper level high pressure is in firm control of the weather and will result in hot and dry conditions through the rest of this week. Could see an isolated thunderstorm along the seabreeze front this weekend if Gulf moisture is able to increase and the ridge aloft backs to the west some.

 

Recent rainfall in July was spotty and not all locations benefitted from rainfall while other locations picked up several inches. SE TX has been is some form of drought nearly this entire year and drought conditions have been prevalent since the aftermath of Hurricane Ike now nearly 5 years ago. The entire state continues to suffer through dry conditions with significant impacts on water supply across central and west TX where the impacts of the 2011 drought remain. All of SE TX is covered by severe drought conditions with areas of extreme drought noted southwest of College Station and across portions of our coastal counties.  

 

Rainfall Deficits for 2013:

BUSH IAH: -9.39

Hobby: -7.78

College Station: -3.30

Galveston: -5.50

Angleton: -15.00

Palacios: -14.15

Tomball: -9.25

Conroe: -4.59

Huntsville: -4.64

League City: -7.62

 

Note: BUSH IAH has recorded 17.62 inches of rainfall thus far in 2013 (through 7-21-13).

 

If you sum up the rainfall departures for BUSH IAH from Jan 1, 2009 to July 21, 2013 a staggering rainfall deficit of 51.85 inches is found. Put in another way in the last 4.5 years over an entire year’s worth of rainfall is “missing”. The average rainfall for BUSH IAH is 49.77 inches. Below is the rainfall and deficits for BUSH IAH going back to 2009:

 

2009: 47.01 in (-2.76 in)

2010: 42.72 in (-7.05 in)

2011: 24.57 in (-25.20 in)

2012: 42.32 in (-7.45 in)

2013: 17.87 in (-9.39 in) though 7-21

 

Vegetation Health/Fire Weather:

Even with the recent rainfall, extremely dry conditions exists across much of the area. KBDI values range from 600-700 across nearly all of Brazoria, Fort Bend, Brazos, Grimes, Washington, Burleson, and northern Austin counties. A few spots in Brazoria County are over 700. The scale runs from (0 completely saturated to 800 completely dry to a depth of 8 inches). Values over 600-700 typically support extreme fire weather conditions and within the last few weeks the number of grass fires has increased especially over Brazoria County. This week a 200+ acre fire developed in Bastrop County near Smithville (now 60% contained), but this indicates the fine and even some larger fuels are starting to dry. Luckily besides some gusty winds in the afternoon hours, wind speeds have been averaging below 15mph and RH recovery has been good in the evening and overnight hours. A total of 119 counties are currently under burn bans including: Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Colorado, Waller, Grimes, Montgomery, Austin, Brazos, and Washington.

 

Water Supply:

Locally water supply is doing well with most water supply lakes/reservoirs above 90% of capacity. Conditions are much more dire in central TX where severe water supply issues remain.

 

Current Water Level Departure from Normal Pool:

 

Lake Conroe: -2.98 ft

Lake Georgetown: -15.54 ft

Sam Rayburn: -4.20 ft

Lake Livingston: -.73 ft

Lake Somerville: -5.40 ft

Lake Travis: -56.40 ft

Lake Buchanan: -29.37 ft

Lake Amistad: -55.94 ft

Lake Mackenzie: -96.07 ft

 

Outlook:

Little to no significant rainfall appears likely through next week especially away from the coast. Temperatures will continue to run warm, in the upper 90’s to low 100’s. Evaporation rates will remain high and vegetation health will continue to decline. Our only real prospects for widespread wetting rainfall would be some form of tropical system if the massive ridge over NW TX would give a little ground. Long term outlooks suggest drought conditions continuing into October and possibly worsening.   

[DoctorMu]

Long term outlooks suggest drought conditions continuing into October and possibly worsening. 

 

 

       

 

 

 

 

On the positive side, a dry Fall may reduce brown path...

[Ed Lizard]

I think I could see where rain in Deep South Texas could come from in 8 or 9 days...

 

Still watching for retrograding non-tropical feature in Gulf, no real model support for anything developing, but Euro has been fairly persistent, more runs than not the last 4 days or so on the end of a frontal trough breaking off and coming back, and now a famous, sometimes on TV degreed Penn State graduate met has mentioned watching the Gulf next week.

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

If only this forum existed in 1970.

 

I would have been six.

 

Anyway, iCyclone did an introspective of Hurricane Celia on Facebook.

 

 

[DoctorMu]

I think I could see where rain in Deep South Texas could come from in 8 or 9 days...

 

Still watching for retrograding non-tropical feature in Gulf, no real model support for anything developing, but Euro has been fairly persistent, more runs than not the last 4 days or so on the end of a frontal trough breaking off and coming back, and now a famous, sometimes on TV degreed Penn State graduate met has mentioned watching the Gulf next week.

 

Not to pimp accuwx, but they do have an interesting week of the 11th... just hope the Bastardi is right this time...

 

[Srain]

Not to pimp accuwx, but they do have an interesting week of the 11th... just hope the Bastardi is right this time...

 

 

The operational GFS and Euro are suggesting an inverted trough making its way W bound across the Gulf next weekend. That should enhance storm chances along the Coastal Counties of Louisiana and Texas. Just how far inland that chance will spread remains to be seen.

[Ed Lizard]

Despite being solid on a cold core mid and upper low pinching off and retrograding back, GFS and ensembles are insistent on little to no surface reflection (barely a hint at 700 mb) and only isolated showers next weekend.

 

 

Which, after a week of near 100ºF temps forecast for SETX (and worse inland and up towards DFW and SPS), would still be an improvement.

[Ed Lizard]

I check the full GFS total precip almost every run, have been for a week, and every run it says my lawn will be lucky to get half an inch in two weeks.

 

All we need now is to be on the dry, windy side of a sheared Louisiana tropical system to repeat the Bastrop fires.  As discussed on KHOU-TV 11 local forum, the drought this calendar year not as bad as 2011, but the trees haven't had a normal year since, many are still stressed, and I can see dead pines among the live ones.

 

No sign of a TC this far North and West in immediate ( 2 weeks) future to help, and I suspect there may not be this year.

[Ed Lizard]

^^  I haven't see any GFS 384 forecast of any cycle in about a week that has shown much over half an inch of rain for the entire period.  Weekend showers with a weak wave from the East this weekend won't do much.

 

Tropics anywhere near here look dead late in August, and while we don't want anything that would damage Summer places in Galveston ( I think a low end Cat 1 is survivable), only potential source of drought relief.  And mid September the window starts closing fast, although there is the once every thirty or forty years early October storm.

[Ed Lizard]

Obviously things can change in two weeks, and that slug of tropical moisture needs to come a tad farther North, but as depicted, good rains for Deep South Texas and the ruby red grapefruit and sugar cane crops.

 

 

If that doesn't work, 30 km FIM says 'dry'.  Horribly dry.

[DoctorMu]

Some GFS fantasy prOn for your lawn

 

OK, it's more like a 1908 bathing suit model with a view of the ankles...Sat and Mon are possible maybes and then nada...

 

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

New GFS, with the potential Erin, only shows a little love to my lawn, but absolutely loves the lawns of Deep South Texas.

 

New 0Z 30 km FIM is back to a Mexican landfall, like last 0Z FIM8, (12Z was Mobile), and 25% of ensembles hold hope for rain in about 10 days,

 

[DoctorMu]

Heading to NotReallyHotlanta for a week.  Will direct the rain in a retrograde vector back this way.

 

 

Sprinklers on Stun.  Kirk Out.

[Ed Lizard]

Just because all reliable model guidance says the drought only gets more severe, I scoured the globe.  (I didn't check Korean, or even JMA, but you get the idea).

[Ed Lizard]

OK, the Caribbean probably won't help the lawn in a little over a week.

 

But things aren't all bad. 

[DoctorMu]

Ooooh...will that outflow boundary make it past Navasota...

 

gas and go...

[Ed Lizard]

Thunderstorm with moderate rain at my house!

 

 

Normally I wouldn't get that excited, but it has been a few weeks...

[Ed Lizard]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

208 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

LAC019-023-101915-

/O.CON.KLCH.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-130810T1915Z/

CALCASIEU LA-CAMERON LA-

208 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT

FOR NORTH CENTRAL CAMERON AND SOUTH CENTRAL CALCASIEU PARISHES...

AT 205 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ON RADAR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THUNDERSTORM WIND

DAMAGE ON BIG PASTURE RD. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST

OF GRAND LAKE..MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CARLYSS

 

 

[wxmx]

Rain started a few minutes ago...it looks like I'm good for one more episode of "Land of feast or famine" according to radar

[Ed Lizard]

A boy can dream of 3-5 inches for his lawn from a high end tropical storm.

 

I know, if it is too good to be true...

[Srain]

Finally seeing some support for a weak, albeit somewhat sheared non vertically stacked surface low across the Western/Central Gulf via the 00Z Euro Ensemble Mean. The one limiting factor will just how deep the EC trough and back door front drops S and picks up any potential surface low and ejects it NE along the trough to our E. We will see.

[Ed Lizard]

Finally seeing some support for a weak, albeit somewhat sheared non vertically stacked surface low across the Western/Central Gulf via the 00Z Euro Ensemble Mean. The one limiting factor will just how deep the EC trough and back door front drops S and picks up any potential surface low and ejects it NE along the trough to our E. We will see.

 

 

6Z GFS forecast of a borderline depression in 6 days that then weakens from land interaction differs from the 6Z FIM tropical storm headed for Southern Tamps.. IMHO, mainly because FIM has system coming off Yucatan maybe 2 degrees farther North and moving WNW instead of almost due West because it is closer to weakness between ridges to the North, and maybe a bit stronger.  6Z GEFS support the 6Z GFS in being below 20N coming off the Yucatan. Next Sunday early morning FIM storm would still be offshore and strengthening.

 

Closer to my lawn, same 6Z FIM would have showers with a front Friday, unrelated to its TC.  Too early to speculate whether FIM TC would push moisture over the remnant frontal trough and bring additional rains to my yard after it made landfall in Mexico beyond the end of the forecast, although that would clearly make me happy.  Some suggestion that could happen.  (See below)

[Ed Lizard]

6Z GFS forecast of a borderline depression in 6 days that then weakens from land interaction differs from the 6Z FIM tropical storm headed for Southern Tamps.. IMHO, mainly because FIM has system coming off Yucatan maybe 2 degrees farther North and moving WNW instead of almost due West because it is closer to weakness between ridges to the North, and maybe a bit stronger.  6Z GEFS support the 6Z GFS in being below 20N coming off the Yucatan. Next Sunday early morning FIM storm would still be offshore and strengthening.

 

Closer to my lawn, same 6Z FIM would have showers with a front Friday, unrelated to its TC.  Too early to speculate whether FIM TC would push moisture over the remnant frontal trough and bring additional rains to my yard after it made landfall in Mexico beyond the end of the forecast, although that would clearly make me happy.  Some suggestion that could happen.  (See below)

 

12Z GFS has gives it those extra 2 degrees and then some, interesting, as 6Z GEFS supported 6Z op GFS with almost all members deep in the BoC

 

The 6Z FIM is between two extremes, and probably rains on my lawn...

[Srain]

Heh...

[Ed Lizard]

Heh...

 

Someday the Canadian will beat the other guidance on a particular system.  Law of averages.  Like Michigan or VT losing to a championship subdivision team.