Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[Ed Lizard]

Almost looks like a nocturnal core event South of DFW with retrograding low.  I see an 850 mb reflection on the model, but not much, if any, of a surface low, which would be cool.  But still.

 

 

 

[Srain]

It appears we have one more day of hot and a bit drier air to contend with before a pattern change that we have not seen for several months develops with a retrograding upper low in the Ohio River Valley to the SW and a wide open Gulf of Mexico commences. Rain chances are increasing with each update of most all the guidance across the NW Gulf Coast and the Lone Star State.

[DoctorMu]

HGX bumped up the forecast POPs for the next 4 days at 40%.  Potentially happy lawns ahead...

 

5 day pcp map looking even better this run.  Remarkable retrograde motion of the low this time of year and latitude.  First a July cold front and this...and we haven't had a tropical derived nibble yet.

 

Nice drought-busting rain forecast for west Texas...

 

 

[Quixotic1]

HGX bumped up the forecast POPs for the next 4 days at 40%.  Potentially happy lawns ahead...

 

5 day pcp map looking even better this run.  Remarkable retrograde motion of the low this time of year and latitude.  First a July cold front and this...and we haven't had a tropical derived nibble yet.

 

Nice drought-busting rain forecast for west Texas...

 

 

 

Hard pressed to remember any ULL moving SSW.  Always hoping for an easterly wave this time of year, but the movement on this is definitely strange.  

[David Reimer]

We're going to have to monitor for training convection over the next few days. The fact some models have very high QPF lead me to believe we could have some problems. Many flood events we deal with in the summer have been caused by these pesky upper level lows.

[Ed Lizard]

NAM and GFS both show heaviest rain developing after dark and weakening after dawn tomorrow night/early morning and again Monday night/Tuesday morning.  And storm total rains approaching 7 inches near/just SW of DFW area.

[Srain]

A very promising update from the Storm Prediction Center regarding the rain/storm potential across the Lone Star State today into this evening:

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

   VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

 

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

 

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE STG ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADING
   FROM NERN CONUS ACROSS UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
   THIS WILL OCCUR AS MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OZARKS -- PROCEEDS WSWWD ACROSS OK.
   STG RIDGE WILL EXTEND WSWWD FROM NERN CONUS HIGH ACROSS NEB THEN
   ARCHING SWWD/SWD OVER UT/AZ.  MAIN BELT OF WSWLY/WLY FLOW WILL
   REMAIN FROM PAC NW ENEWD ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO NRN
   ONT.  EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER ID -- SHOULD LOSE
   AMPLITUDE AS IT EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS MT TO SRN MB BY END OF PERIOD.
   DISPLACEMENT OF FAVORABLE STG FLOW ALOFT FROM MOST FAVORABLE
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT SUGGESTS MINIMAL SVR POTENTIAL OVER NRN
   PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

   AT SFC...EFFECTIVE COLD-FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SRN
   SEMICIRCLE OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE...RELATED TO BOTH DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
   DEEP-LAYER COOLING AND INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP ON
   DIABATIC-HEATING PROCESSES IN BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS
   BEEN EVIDENT ABOVE SFC -- E.G. IN 14/00Z 925-MB ANALYSIS -- AND WAS
   DRAWN ON 11Z SFC CHART FROM SERN LA ACROSS SERN THROUGH N-CENTRAL
   TX...THEN NNEWD OVER SERN NEB AND CENTRAL IA.  RESULTING BAROCLINIC
   ZONE SHOULD SHIFT SWWD WITH TIME ACROSS ERN NM AND WRN/CENTRAL/SERN
   TX...OVERTAKING DRYLINE NOW EVIDENT FROM TX BIG-BEND REGION TO ERN
   PANHANDLE.

 

   ...SRN PLAINS TO DIXIE...
   THREE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE REGIMES EXIST TODAY OVER THIS REGION...WITH
   ENOUGH OVERLAP TO YIELD SINGULAR AREAS OF MRGL SVR WIND/HAIL RISK.

 

  1. BAROCLINIC ZONE...REINFORCED BY CLOUD/PRECIP PLUME ASSOCIATED
   WITH BELT OF ELEVATED TSTMS NOW EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS
   PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX...MAY BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
   SUBSEQUENT/SFC-BASED CONVECTION TODAY.  CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ANEW
   OR AS CONTINUATION OF PART OF TSTM BELT NOW UNDERWAY.  ENHANCED
   MID-UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED AROUND CYCLONE ALOFT...WITH ONE JET MAX
   ARCHING FROM WRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE SEWD OVER NW/N-CENTRAL TX BY
   00Z.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD INCLUDE 70-75 KT 250-MB SPEED MAX...AND
   40-50 KT 500-MB WINDS...IN SUPPORT OF FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR.
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY ENLARGE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/NW TX ALONG
   AND BEHIND BOUNDARY...WHERE SFC WINDS ARE MOST BACKED...YIELDING
   VERY STG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.  AS SUCH...CONDITIONAL SUPERCELL
   POTENTIAL EXISTS.  HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS WILL INCLUDE WEAK
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE DCVA/COLD-CORE REGION
   ALOFT...LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER W TX SWATH...AND
   POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL COOLING TO EXTEND OUT FROM UNDER STRONGEST
   MID-UPPER FLOW.  ATTM...THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR
   CATEGORICAL-THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

 

   2. POCKETS OF SFC HEATING AND OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING
   BOUNDARIES MAY DEVELOP BENEATH COLD-CORE REGION OF MID-UPPER
   LOW...AND ESPECIALLY OVER ITS PROXIMAL ERN SEMICIRCLE.
   HOWEVER...MUCH OF LATTER AREA ALSO WILL LIE BENEATH MINIMAL
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND PERHAPS WEAK DVM...WITH DCVA BEING OVER
   WRN/SWRN SIDES OF VORTEX OF THIS NATURE.  MEANWHILE LOW-LEVEL
   INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MINIMIZED BENEATH MOST OF STRONGEST COOLING
   ALOFT.  GIVEN THESE DISPLACEMENTS...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTS NEAR
   SVR LIMITS EXISTS BUT APPEARS ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL.

 

   3. PLUME OF DEEP SELYS AND RELATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOCATED OVER
   LOWER MS VALLEY REGION EWD THROUGH PORTIONS MS/AL...AMIDST CONFLUENT
   MID-UPPER WINDS.  EXPECT SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS AFTN TSTMS IN
   CLUSTERS AND BANDS.  VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STG SFC
   INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD
   AREAS OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE.  DEEP SHEAR THROUGH CLOUD LAYER WILL
   BE ENHANCED BY ERN SPEED MAX ALOFT FROM MID-SOUTH AREA SEWD OVER
   PORTIONS AL.  PRECIP LOADING AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA IN
   PRECONVECTIVE/BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT STG/DAMAGING
   GUSTS WITH MOST INTENSE CELLS IN THIS REGIME.

   ..EDWARDS/SMITH.. 07/14/2013

 

 

[DoctorMu]

Some robust cells firing along I-10.  The AggieDome hanging in there in almost cartoon-like fashion

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FXUS64 KHGX 142011
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
311 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING MID AND HIGH OVERCAST OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AREA OF RAIN NOW INDICATED ON RADAR OVER
ROBERTSON AND LEON COUNTY...HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO GET ANY FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...AS HAS BEEN TIED TO BETTER LIFT AND DYNAMICS LOCATED
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND BETTER FRONTOGENTIC FORCING. A FEW
STORMS HAVE POPPED UP FIRST NEAR THE COAST AND NOW OFF TO THE WEST
TOWARD GIDDINGS AND BASTROP BUT THOSE ALSO ARE MAINLY OUTSIDE THE
FORECAST AREA.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE AREA OF MORE MODERATE RAIN TO REMAIN MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
IT SHOULD PIVOT A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AT LEAST BURLESON...MADISON...AND BRAZOS COUNTIES A PERIOD OF AT
LEAST LIGHT RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

 

 

 

 

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS FARTHER
WEST MONDAY MORNING...TAKING ITS LIFT AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN WITH
IT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ONLY QUESTION IS
THE LACK OF FORCING OR FOCUSSING AGENT FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN UPPER LOW SHIFTING WEST. STILL THINK WILL
SEE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THAT MOIST FLOW
WITH A DIURNAL COMPONENT...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER LAND DURING
PEAK HEATING PERIODS...AND SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE PREFERRED OVER
THE GULF AND NEAR THE COAST AT NIGHT...AND WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
OVERALL. LOOKING ACROSS LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPI...AND ALABAMA TODAY
ARE SEEING THIS PLAY OUT...AND THINK SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE IN
THAT TYPE OF REGIME FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WITH SOME
RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...WHICH MIGHT SUPPRESS
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AND WITH NO DRASTIC CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN. THINK LOW CHANCE POPS REMAIN WARRANTED IN THAT
THRURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS WELL. 46

[Ed Lizard]

More thunder than rain, but still, the lawn didn't go completely w/o liquid sunshine.

[DoctorMu]

very envious of the cell currently in WNW Harris co.   Just a few drops in CLL.  At least the cloud cover and lower temps reduced a few KW-hr of energy usage.  

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Upper level low currently over central OK responsible for the widespread much needed rainfall yesterday and overnight.

 

Low is currently moving toward the W toward NW TX with a swath of deep tropical moisture streaming inland on the SE flank of the system. Overnight large area of rainfall on the southern flank of the low is starting to weaken while numerous showers are starting to develop over the coastal waters and inland as moisture streams northward. Should see pretty decent rainfall coverage today with storms moving quickly from SSE to NNW across the area. Deep tropical moisture with PWS of 2.0 inches will support a heavy rainfall threat. While grounds are dry any training of rainfall could result in some localized flooding problems. Even though there was some wind damage yesterday, do not expect as much wind with the storms today as the column is closer to saturation.

 

Upper low digs into SW TX and N MX Tuesday/Wednesday with high pressure centered to our NE allowing a continued moist onshore flow. Expect good coverage of rainfall both Tuesday and Wednesday. Likely see coastal develop in the 400-800am period followed by inland progression of storms beyond 800am. High pressure may attempt to build into the area on Thursday, but it is to be seen if an how much influence the high will have. Will likely at least continue to see isolate the scattered development on the seabreeze each day into the weekend.

 

While not expected to be a drought breaker this is the best rain chances over multi days that we have seen in a long time.

 

[Ed Lizard]

This is a good thing.

[Quixotic1]

DFW getting dry slotted.  Only 0.52" in this event.  Sheesh. 

[DoctorMu]

This is a good thing.

 

That's one impressive ULL in OK/TX for July!  First a cold front at the beginning of the month...and this remarkable retrograde event

 

 

 About 0.8 in so far...and we'll see more in the next few days as we drag in gulf moisture on the W side of the low.  

 

 

Sure beats the fires scattered around Bastrop, Austin and the Brazos Valley in 2011.

 

 

Edit - some nice soaking north of us...and a band near I-10  ...OK, that transferred strangely...

 

 

 

 

[DoctorMu]

A better look at the ULL via NA vapor loop.  Very impressive.

 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

[Srain]

Somewhat interesting to see some mid level development where the NCEP Ensemble TC Genesis Probs suggested an area of disturbed weather would form in the Western Gulf. Banding is noted from Coastal Texas radars and some vortisity is noted in the mid/upper air analysis.

[Ed Lizard]

^^ Mostly 500 mb and above on CIMSS vorticity analysis.

 

But shear isn't bad at all, although upper divergence is nothing to write home about.

 

ETA  Canadian offers model support for development and LCH landfall!

 

 

Now, ballpark totals from KHGX 88D of about an inch, closer to 2.5 inches for Srain, with moderate temps, in July, that is something to write home about.  And flooding in Abilene.

 

WGUS84 KSJT 161043
FLSSJT

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013

TXC253-441-161245-
/O.NEW.KSJT.FA.Y.0046.130716T1043Z-130716T1245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JONES TX-TAYLOR TX-
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
  TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT

* AT 540 AM CDT STORMS PRODUCING SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY AND THE CITY OF ABILENE.
THESES STORMS ARE PRODUCING AS MUCH AS ONE TO TWO INCHES OVER THE
NEXT HOUR.

* IMPACTS FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCLUDE:
  FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS...UNDERPASSES AND INTERSECTIONS.
  FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AVOID THESE AREAS.
  RAPID RISE OF AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND ARROYOS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
ABILENE...TYE...TUSCOLA AND POTOSI

THIS INCLUDES THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS...
  TEXAS AVENUE AT ARNOLD BOULEVARD...
  INTERSECTIONS ALONG SAMMONS STREET...
  CURRY LANE FROM CLACK STREET TO CATCLAW DRIVE...
  BUTTERNUT UNDERPASS...
  INTERSECTIONS ALONG BUTTONWILLOW PARKWAY...
  INTERSECTIONS ALONG VOGEL STREET...
  SUNSET BETWEEN SOUTH 1ST AND 2ND...
  STREETS BEWEEN JACKSON AND TREADAWAY...
  NORTH 18TH STREET BETWEEN MESQUITE AND TREADAWAY...
  COUNTY ROAD 116 CROSSING LYTLE CREEK...
  COUNTY ROAD 107 CROSSING RAINY CREEK...
  CROSSINGS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 107...
  CROSSINGS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 410...
AND OTHER LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE PORTIONS OF JONES AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

Full sunshine at the Galleria, and LCH and CRP soundings are abso-tively juiced as of 7 am.  Maybe finally, for the first time since 2008, a wind gust over 50 knots from just precipitation loading?

Of course, not having an anenometer, the absence of 50 knot winds is somewhat subjective.  But I have checked calibration of wind estimates from watching tree motion on windy days with DWH and IAH, and my eyes are fairly well calibrated.

 

 

[Srain]

It appears we have one more day of scattered showers and storms as the upper low over New Mexico slowly translates W and a building upper ridge that will bring a heat wave to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and the big cities along the East Coast this weekend ridges down into the mid to lower Mississippi Valley. There is a another upper low or TUTT over Florida that will move W under the developing Ridge across the Mid West/East Coast. More isolated rain/storm chances with warm and muggy weather should set in for our area. The fly in the ointment is that some models attempt to develop some sort of surface low of tropical origin as the mid/upper trough moves in our direction by late this weekend across the Gulf S of Louisiana. At this time a weaker system is expected, but future outlooks will need to be monitored in case increasing rainfall chances develop once again as the Florida system heads our way Sunday into Monday. The Lone Star State has certainly had a good 'drink of water' that was sorely needed with some locations seeing rainfall totals of 6-8 inches.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Showers and thunderstorms ongoing this morning from Galveston Island ESE out over the Gulf waters south of Sabine Pass and SW of Victoria. Majority of the inland areas are currently dry at the moment. Upper level low partly responsible for the recent wet period continues to move W into New Mexico leaving much of TX under a deep southeasterly tropical flow off the Gulf of Mexico on the east side of the upper level low and the west/southwest side of high pressure over the NE US and Ohio valley. Local soundings at Lake Charles and Corpus Christi continue to support a deep tropical air mass with PWS on the order of 1.9-2.3 inches. Once temperatures warm into the upper 80’s expect another round of numerous showers and thunderstorms over the area with some locations picking up a quick 1-2 inches in the heavier downpours.

 

Drier air mass noted over the central Gulf of Mexico will work W toward the TX coast late this afternoon and begin to replace the deep tropical moisture in place. Will likely not see the early morning development on Thursday morning over the Gulf waters as the drier air mass works toward the coast and inland. Will begin to transition to more isolated to scattered afternoon activity along the seabreeze and baybreeze fronts for both Thursday and Friday. Coverage both days could be limited by both the drier air mass entering the area and subsidence approaching from another upper level low currently over FL.

 

Forecast for the weekend is slightly more complicated this morning as a couple models are trying to close off a surface reflection with the upper level system currently over FL. Given the current wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico this possibility seems somewhat remote at the moment, but nonetheless it is hurricane season. Upper level system usually take time to result in a surface reflection. Regardless of any tropical development or not, associated deeper moisture with this feature will begin to arrive into the TX coast late Friday and into the weekend and suspect rain chances will once again be on the rise (from 20-30% on Thursday and Friday) to 30-40% on (Saturday and Sunday).

 

Longer ranges attempt to show ridging building into the area from the NNE, but models are not being overly consistent on if the ridging will be strong enough to cut off rain chances. With ground moisture now recovering some from the recent rainfall it will likely be harder for high pressure to gain full control over the area and fully end rain chances.

[Ed Lizard]

More rain in the yard as I slept, and more rain apparently on the way.

Despite complete boredom in the tropics, what a reasonably cheerful mid-July we are having.

 

Assuming the NAM/Canadian combo referred above as the models showing a surface reflection are indeed wrong, the GFS builds the Western ridge enough (and pushes the long wave trough to the East) sufficiently the weather will go back to the duller, 10% scattered t-storm type regime for Houston.

 

But, glass half full type optimism, nice AEW on Euro on Day 10, and Euro MJO forecast, which has had MJO become apparently weak, suggests maybe MJO starts becoming more favorable.  There is mild ensemble support from the GEFS for the Euro's healthy AEW.

 

 

Or, simple extension of actual MJO propagation from CPC website, while it is absolutely dead subsident now, it will come back some day.

 

 

Now, granted, if the tropics do start showing signs of getting active on the late July models for early August, well, nothing really suggests Texas.  Although unlike the last few years, the hell ridge of death and boredom is not overhead, so nothing absolutely rules out Texas either.

 

But if next weekend into early next week, we're back to 10% pops and watering the lawn, I think we'd agree a couple of GFS model runs inside 192 hours (four or six days closer to today's hour 240) targetting Florida or the Southeast, especially with Euro support, will make the average Texas weather fan handle what is actually normal late July weather, especially if a trackable system develops, even if Texas is never really a target.  I'll deal with watering the lawn every other day on near 100ºF days, especially if that heat is the result of a ridge steering a major hurricane to Southwest Florida for a daytime landfall.

[Ed Lizard]

Only because the thread is awfully slow, despite the delightfully cool weather and beneficial Summer rains, in 15 days several GEFS ensemble perturbations show lowering pressure in the Bay of Campeche, 3 at 1004 mb or below, one below 984 mb.

 

Enough to create a mean 1008 mb low...

[DoctorMu]

A little retro disturbance with potential for the lawn this afternoon...

 

[DoctorMu]

Rain to the NE, Rain to the S...both running out of gas.  

[Ed Lizard]

Hour or two of thunder for 10 minutes of rain, but it was a heavy rain, an inch plus per hour rate, or ballpark two tenths.  Will go over a week without watering the lawn.

[DoctorMu]

About 5 miles from heaven...a string of storms rolling through just south of the lawn...

 

[DoctorMu]

Slight chance of a shower licking the coast this weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

Otherwise, snoresville.   Tropics should be tilted for more action in August in the Caribbean and Atlantic per usual...

[DoctorMu]

No rain but 4th day in July in the 80s!  and 2nd cold front in July - unheard of.   Just 4 days 100°F in July (could be worse) and back to the Century mark on Tuesday.

 

N wind 10-12 mph and 86°F.  Good for enjoying the yard and outdoors for a change when the sun is out.

 

 

Nice cluster of showers between HOU and Galveston.  The front should back up and dissipate tomorrow.

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

Tropics are boring, local weather is boring, but at least we have a minimal TS hitting Hawaii later today.

[Ed Lizard]

Too weeniefied for main forum tropics.  I did briefly mention Euro and possible cutoff, but can't go beyond that.  Too unlikely a chance.

 

Modified copy and paste from KHOU-TV 11 local forum.  KHOU stands for Houston.

 

 

 

No real signs of anything on GFS/ensembles next two weeks.  FIM 9 suggests a couple of East Pac developments, which could suggest favorable conditions in East Pac next week or so which could spread into Atlantic after the first week of August, but for now, nothing.

 

Long shot, 2 Euro runs in a row pinch off a polar trough (and 850 mb vorticity suggests remnant front in area as a surface focus) in 9 to 10 days near Florida, a retrograding 500 mb cutoff with a pre-existing low level area of vorticity could always spart deverlopment of a TC from non-tropical origins, ala Alicia.

 

Based on 10 day Euro being right about pinching off a trough, which in itself isn't guaranteed.

 

 

 

 

0Z GFS has a weak low level windshift and an Eastern trough, but the trough isn't deep enough to be pinched off, but at least the GFS is sort of, kind of, in the ballpark.