Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[DoctorMu]

Cloudy, winds from the north about 10-12 mph, 85° at 12:30 pm, dewpoint at 59°.  The is new to me in July!      A couple more days of this would be splendid...and then a chance of rain.

 

 

update:  Wow 87° for the high under a partly cloudy sky - 19°F cooler than 2 days ago! 

[Ed Lizard]

Models backing off the rain a bit for end of the week with the upper low drfting Souhwest and some moisture from the Gulf.

 

But, looks like first 3 days of holiday weekend will be decent.

 

I-35 corridor, sprinklers running overtime.

 

Austin, however, will offer rebates for planting drought tolerant lawns that need little or no watering.  

 

 

Prickly pear has the advantage of growing well in dry climate, handling Austin's warm Summers and bitterly cold Winters, and the fruit and pads are edible.

 

Not just cactus, however...

[Srain]

68F this morning at the house with no humidity. Sweet!

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
0727 AM CDT TUE JUL 02 2013

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES WAS SET AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM
TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 63 SET IN 2008.

[Ed Lizard]

Models backing off the rain a bit for end of the week with the upper low drfting Souhwest and some moisture from the Gulf.

 

But, looks like first 3 days of holiday weekend will be decent.

 

I-35 corridor, sprinklers running overtime.

 

Austin, however, will offer rebates for planting drought tolerant lawns that need little or no watering.  

 

 

Prickly pear has the advantage of growing well in dry climate, handling Austin's warm Summers and bitterly cold Winters, and the fruit and pads are edible.

 

Not just cactus, however...

 

Trend continues, best moisture stays East of Texas along with heaviest rainfall.

[DoctorMu]

Trend continues, best moisture stays East of Texas along with heaviest rainfall.

 

Ouch.  Ironically, our new super drought resistant Mexican White Oak kicked the bucket in May - from possibly too much rain (nearly 7 inches) on the young transplanted roots.  Our neighborhood arborist was flummoxed.  Antique roses it is!

 

Going to try a Chinquapin Oak in a different spot on the front lawn in October (no mas Spring plantings for us!)

 

 

Could it be 2 days in a row in July below 90°F?  wow.

 

Had a record low of 68° last night with about 65° tonight

[Srain]

Nice little surprise last evening as sea breeze storms fired over Western Harris County. Now storms have developed overnight in Montgomery County with some heavy rainfall. It appears the Bay of Campeche disturbance has a bit more potential to offer a few more surprises as we head into the late Holiday weekend time frame. The NCEP Ensemble Cyclogenesis Probs continue to rise and suggest we may see a weak TS movinging inland along the Upper TX/SW Louisiana Coast early next week.

[Ed Lizard]

Like Lee, any rain would be almost entirely East of us, but it'd be lucky to be a depression, so winds shouldn't be that bad, and it has been nowhere near as dry as 2011, so we shouldn't burn down Bastrop.

 

 

Tiny shower or t-shower weakening not too far North of my house per radar.  I was surprised yesterday, even with upper low, that cumulus would build up that much with such a dry air mass.

 

 

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Upcoming pattern change will slowly transpire over the next 3-4 days with the parched area hopefully getting some much needed rainfall.

Highly unusual upper air pattern in place across the US with blocking ridge...s on both coasts and a full latitude trough in the center of the nation. This pattern will slowly retro-grade (move westward) over the next 3-4 days with the trough axis pushing deeper into TX allowing increasing instability and eventually and significant surge of tropical moisture. In addition, a tropical wave currently over the Yucatan will move generally WNW to NW over the next 3-4 days along the eastern side of the eastern side of the trough axis. Latest global forecast models attempt to spin up a surface low pressure from this tropical wave over the W/NW Gulf of Mexico late this weekend and they have been suggesting this off and on for several days now. Eastern sides of upper trough tend to be fairly active areas for thunderstorms to blossom and if upper level wind shear is favorable it is very possible that a surface circulation could close off over the NW Gulf. Any tropical cyclone formation would be on the weak side and likely move inland fairly quickly along the LA or TX coasts.

Should see a few isolated storms again this afternoon and evening and again on Thursday. Surge of tropical moisture nears the area on Friday and expect a little better coverage of storms along the seabreeze. Moisture moves inland over the weekend with good rain chances likely starting Saturday. Still a little uncertain as to how much coverage, but think the eastern areas (E of I-45) will see decent coverage on Saturday and likely the entire area on Sunday. Uncertainty is greater on Sunday as any surface low will tend to help concentrate rainfall near and east of the center. With tropical moisture increasing, rainfall rates will be on the rise also and while the ground is very dry, the prolonged nature of this potential event does warrant some concern.

Could be some significant changes to wind and seas forecast by late in the weekend if a weak tropical system does attempt to form over the NW Gulf. Should see gradually increasing winds out of the ESE and SE and building seas out of the near flat calm now as the SE wind fetch increases with the tropical wave axis.

Would advise residents to pay close attention to the weather over the holiday weekend and remain update to date on potential for rainfall and amounts.

[Ed Lizard]

I so want a TD to form and landfall just SW of here I can taste it.

 

Not named, I think if I can get past this I have an excellent chance of rocking the July fantasy tropics thread.

 

I wonder if work would be cancelled Monday for a TS warning for a 30 knot depression.  That would be the trifecta.

 

 

I hope my rare pessimism, that nothing much will happen, at best a Lee in Louisiana windy and dry IMBY scenario, leads me to wail and gnash my teeth.  In a briar patch sort of way.

 

Dr. Jeff sounds glass quarter full, and he is a trained professional...

[DoctorMu]

I few firecrackers popping early just west of town.

 

[Ed Lizard]

Because the GFS does try to close off a pathetic ballpark 1010 mb low before Louisiana, it almost completely screws my yard.

[MJO812]

Wow

 

 

http://www.weather.com/news/two-feet-hail-new-mexico-town-20130704?hootPostID=db7b6035a7ed28041784ce25643bbcdd

[Ed Lizard]

Wow

 

 

http://www.weather.com/news/two-feet-hail-new-mexico-town-20130704?hootPostID=db7b6035a7ed28041784ce25643bbcdd

 

 

Like one of MetFan's Northeastern snowstorms, model difference of 50 miles will have a huge affect on my sensible weather and lawn.

[DoctorMu]

Oh the Humidity!

 

 

Soaring dewpoints and a trough should allow a sea breeze to kick in today.  Possibly CLL way...

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013

.UPDATE...
A QUIET START TO THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING
IF IT WILL END THAT WAY OVER VARIOUS REGIONAL COUNTIES. THERE ARE
A FEW FACTORS THAT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR THE RETURN OF MID
TO LATE DAY CONVECTION. ONE...OF COURSE...IS THE PRESENCE OF A
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH WHOSE AXIS IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
(NORTH)EASTERN STATE. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BACKSIDE
FLOW OF THIS TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH ANY MESOSCALE INITIATION
THAT OCCURS ACROSS MORE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATTER TODAY.
WITH THE HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EITHER NORTH OR WELL SOUTH OF
SE TX...THE RELATIVELY HIGHEST LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES ALONG
THE COAST AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST. HIGHER REZ MODELING DOES VEER
THIS LIGHT MORNING NORTHEAST BREEZE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
TAKING THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WELL INLAND INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. INTERIOR AFTERNOON PROG SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT
THUNDER...A NEAR-DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO 700MB PROVIDES
ENOUGH CAPE/THERMO INDICES TO MENTION STORMS IF AND WHEN TOWERING
CU DO TURN OVER TO CBS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MID-LATE DAY ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG AND OR AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE...POSSIBLY FOCUSED
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR (W-SW CWA)...OR OVER THE LOCATION
OF THE HIGHEST ANALYZED MU CAPE AND BULK SHEAR. 

[Srain]

The 12Z GFS Ensembles are clustered with a weak tropical system along the Middle TX/SW Louisiana Coast in about 84 hours.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Much anticipated and long awaited pattern change is underway this morning and should bring much needed rainfall to the area.

 

Upper level trough axis located over the NW Gulf of Mexico and a WNW moving tropical wave located over the southern Gulf of Mexico will continue to advance toward the TX coast over the next 24-36 hours. Moisture levels will be on the rise starting later today and into Saturday with the peak in the moisture arriving on Sunday into Monday.

 

Expect a continuation of the isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the seabreeze today with coverage on the order of about 20%. With better moisture influx on Saturday expect 30-40% coverage along the seabreeze. Sunday into Monday is where things start to get a little tricky. NAM and GFS want to spin up a weak surface low off the TX coast and bring it inland over SE TX Sunday. No other model guidance suggest this development and based on the current satellite images and strong shear over the tropical wave axis, any development would be very slow and on the weak side. However an influx of tropical air with PWS well over 2.0 inches looks likely on Sunday and this will support widespread rain and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall a good threat.

 

Such patterns tend to focus their heavy rainfall in the morning hours and near the coast so will go with the highest rain chances on Sunday S of US 59 with more scattered amounts inland. Given the very tropical nature of the incoming air mass a quick 1-3 inches of rainfall is likely along and S of US 59 with isolated amounts possibly up to 5-6 inches.

 

See no need at this time to make much changes to the tide/seas forecast. Tides are already running about 1 ft above normal and this may go up a little more over the weekend with increasing ESE flow helping to pile water toward the coast. Even if a weak surface low does spin up over the NW Gulf expect seas to only slowly respond. Longer period swells will be on the increase as longer fetch Gulf winds arrive toward the coast on Saturday. These bigger swells will create an increased rip current threat.

[Ed Lizard]

Lamest ever invest for that lemon?

[DoctorMu]

Lamest ever invest for that lemon?

 

 

My lawn could use some lemonade.

 

[msp]

My lawn could use some lemonade.

 

DFW would take it too

[Srain]

Nice shot of Hurricane Erick along the Pacific Coast of Mexico and our mess before sunset.

[DoctorMu]

Nice seabreeze and Gulf moisture kicking in.  Today and tomorrow are the best chance before the heat builds on Tuesday.

 

[DoctorMu]

Last Chance for Romance:  HGX has really been struggling with the forecast.  Today appears to be far different than yesterday, with rain moving well inland this am, particularly N of Victoria.  We've had a couple of tenths at CLL with a brief shower and showers could be scattered to widespread before drier air moves in.  

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
619 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS FILLING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BEST
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES BUT WILL CARRY VCSH FOR
MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS
AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY BUT THIS SEEMS A BIT AGGRESSIVE. WILL
PUT SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE TAF BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY CIGS FOR
THIS ISSUANCE. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN FRUSTRATING THE LAST 24 HOURS GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS OF RAIN CHANCES FOR YESTERDAY. GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER
AND 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM CRP AND LCH SHOW THAT A TROPICAL AIRMASS
WITH PW AROUND 2.2 INCHES HAS MOVED OVER SE TX. DESPITE THAT THERE
HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. IT
SEEMS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS NOT BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF
CONVECTION IN HIND SIGHT. THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE FEATURED A
SHEAR AXIS OVER THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING INTO
THE PLAINS AS AN UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEEMS LIKE THE SHEAR AXIS DID NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS THE
MODELS SUGGESTED AND WHEN IT DID...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WAS
APPARENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION.

GOING FORWARD TO TODAY...THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH OF THE SAME.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS STILL HAS A DECENT RIDGE OVER THE S PLAINS AND
S ROCKIES. FORECAST WILL STILL KEEP SOME 30/40 POPS FOR THIS
MORNING AS EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. THE PROBLEM IS THAT GOES SOUNDER DATA DOES SHOW
DRIER AIR IN THE GULF WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES
THAT THE MODELS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY. WITH
THAT IN MIND...WILL DROP POPS TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
THINK THAT MAY EVEN BE OPTIMISTIC. HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL SHOWS
SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OCCURRING IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WRF-NMM
SHOWS CONVECTIVE TRENDS SIMILAR TO THIS THINKING.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER TRANSIENT TUE/WED. AGAIN THINK THE
RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM INHIBITING CONVECTION. THAT
SAID...MAY GET ENOUGH MOISTURE MAINLY ON WED TO GET A FEW STORMS
AND ENOUGH REASON TO KEEP 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST. BY THE END
OF THE WEEK THE RIDGE LOOKS TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS. WITH LESS MOISTURE...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL
BE ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR THUR/FRI/SAT. ALSO SEE MAX TEMPS GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 90S PERHAPS A FEW 100S FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE RIDGE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT A TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND
THEN RETROGRADING INTO THE AREA. GFS GOES AS FAR AS TO PUSH WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA. THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE
AND TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS
THE FRONT STALLING WELL BEFORE REACHING SE TX AND HAS MORE OF AN
ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
LOWER HEIGHTS...DECIDED 20 POPS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE MORE OVER THE C PLAINS. DID NOT TRIM BACK MAX TEMPS
TOO MUCH BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GFS GUIDANCE.

39

[Ed Lizard]

Nice seabreeze and Gulf moisture kicking in.  Today and tomorrow are the best chance before the heat builds on Tuesday.

 

 

 

My lawn is happy.

 

On an unrelated topic, I'd dare say that NCEP ensemble TC genesis product that showed 90%+ for a BoC cyclone development from last Thursday is serious weenie bait.

[DoctorMu]

We're licking the last drop.  Another small shower...perhaps a few drops as the drier air descends...

 

fingers crossed for the BoC.

 

 

 

 

 

[CranberryWX]

Nice heavy thunder shower currently over the office at Greenspoint area.

[Ed Lizard]

Nice heavy thunder shower currently over the office at Greenspoint area.

 

 

Yeah, I just checked with my wife near Veterans/1960 area after scoping radar.  Delays lawn watering to Thursday, maybe even Friday.   Had a storm about 2 hours ago at the Galleria.

[Ed Lizard]

Those storms driving down US 59 look organized enough/should be self propagating due to their outflow to probably last a bit past the usual 6-8pm poofation time for Summer time storms, could approach HOU metro.  Uncapped and around 2000 J/Kg, LCH air morning sounding had no winds below about 700 mb to speak of, light NE above, SPC mesoanalysis suggests weak steering flow, so they indeed appear to be self propagating.  There is a sharp PW gradient on RAP based mesoanalysis from 1.5 inches in the SW HOU suburbs to 2 inches near Lufkin, if that doesn't change, if they don't fizzle on their own with loss of daytime heating, they should start fizzling as the run into drier air.

Looking at RAP soundings 7 pm and 10 pm CDT, especially if they get here closer to 7 pm, skinny CAPE, but greater than 10ºC (closer to 15º) T/Td spread with high PW, so both precip loading and a little evaporative cooling could provide a little excitement in the wind gust department.

Looking at the line to the NE on my drive up I-45 should provide some enjoyment.  Hoping it rains on the lawn, rained Tuesday, might sprinkle after work tomorrow, unless we get more rain.

 

Hotlink, but I'll upload the loop HGX radar if the storms get into Harris, Montgomery or San Jacinto counties with any vigor for posterity.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah - the 59 cluster is outflow from last night in Ark.  Weakish NE to SW weak steering, but indeed self propagating. Daytime heating hot as a firecracker around here also @ the century mark... and the line could be potent by 8 pm when it might head through CLL.   Come to papa

 

 

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

 

...EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN THIS BOUNDARY WILL END UP IS
UNCERTAIN BUT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN/MOVE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. THREW IN THE MENTION OF SVR STORMS ACROSS NE HALF
OF THE REGION AS SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURSTS AND THESE SW
MOVERS HAVE A HISTORY OF NOT PLAYING NICELY HERE. NEXT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLY ADD FURTHER TO THE SW AS
WELL. WILL ALSO NEED TO LOOK OUT FOR THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING
WWD FROM MS/ERN LA LATE TONIGHT - 

[DoctorMu]

Died at 7:30 over North Zulch.  

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Not to get our hopes up again with rain chances…but a wetter pattern seems in the offering by late in the weekend.

 

Upper level ridge over the SW US into the central plains this morning is backing slightly to the NW allowing disturbances to rotate WSW under the belly of the high and bring thunderstorms activity at least into our coastal waters and E/NE counties. Amplification of the ridge out west has allowed a downstream trough over the SE US yet again similar to last week and as the ridge builds eastward this trough will break and the southern portion will come under the influence of the ridge and begin to move westward as an upper level low. This low should arrive into TX by Sunday and as SE TX begins to fall on the moist eastern side of this feature rain chances will be on the rise.

 

Could see a few strong the severe storms this afternoon from Huntsville SSE to near High Island where the combination of an old outflow boundary and incoming weak front will be found. Drying mid-levels should keep convection scattered in nature. Dry air filters in on Saturday and much of Sunday as the region falls on the NNE flow and subsident side of the approaching upper level system from the east.

 

With the upper level low progressing past the region Sunday evening, expect a fairly rapid increase in Gulf moisture with PWS up around 2.0 inches by Monday (note the NAM is faster with this moisture return….on Sunday) and if correct would require increased rain chances as early as Sunday afternoon. For now will go with better chances starting Monday (at least 40%) and continue that into Tuesday. Pattern remains moist into much of next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze each afternoon.