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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1007 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WILSON TX-KARNES TX-ATASCOSA TX-
1007 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR EASTERN
ATASCOSA...SOUTHERN KARNES AND SOUTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 954 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS WILSON...EASTERN ATASCOSA AND KARNES COUNTIES. 
RADAR ESTIMATES 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR FALLING IN STORMS
ENTERING KARNES AND ATASCOSA COUNTIES. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE KARNES CITY...
JOURDANTON...PLEASANTON AND LEMING.
 

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Srain

Srain

Posted
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Worrisome on a big Holiday Weekend for this area:

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1035 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

... ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED
A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE...

COMAL RIVER...GUADALUPE RIVER

 

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Srain

Srain

Posted
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Update from Jeff:

 

cleardot.gif
Tremendous flash flood event continues over the San Antonio metro area. Rain gages have recorded 15.50 inches of rainfall this morning and this has produced a record crest on the San Antonio River at Loop 410. The crest exceeded the previous record by about 2 ft. A tremendous flash flood is moving down the San Antonio River and persons along the river below San Antonio should move immediately to higher ground. Flash flooding within the City of San Antonio will begin to subside as creeks dump their run-off into the larger stream systems.

 

Upper level trough and weak mid level circulation in this highly tropical air mass has taken on tropical charateristics with warm rainfall production leading to extreme rainfall rates. Core of the heaviest rains have shifted toward the coastal bend (Victoria area) with locations along I-35 getting a break. Rainfall rates of 2-5 inches per hour will be possible under the slow moving storms.

 

 

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Srain

Srain

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The models have done very poorly with our highly unstable air mass and pooling of deep rich tropical moisture across the Central Texas Region. Water Vapor imagery suggests another shortwave is heading NE from Mexico and may provide the ‘trigger’ needed to fire additional storms across the flooded areas across S Central Texas. PW’s are near or slightly above 2 inches across the Region and any storms have the potential to develop tropical funnels as well as drop 4+ inches of rainfall per hour as those storms move very slowly in a somewhat stagnant upper air pattern across Texas. The Flash Flood Watch for S Central Texas has been extended until 8:00 AM CDT tomorrow to account for additional warm core storm development potential.

 

sat_wv_us_loop-12.gif

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
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ECORD EVENT REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX  
419 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013  
   
..RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT SAN ANTONIO  
 
A RECORD RAINFALL OF 9.87 INCHES WAS SET AT SAN ANTONIO TODAY.  
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.66 SET IN 1933.IN ADDITION TO  
BREAKING THE RECORD RAINFALL FOR MAY 25TH OF 1.66 INCHES SET IN  
1933...IT ALSO BREAKS THE RECORD ALL-TIME DAILY RECORD FOR THE MONTH  
OF MAY WHICH WAS 6.82 SET ON MAY 31...1937.  
 
IT IS NOW THE 2ND WETTEST DAY OF ALL-TIME AT SAN ANTONIO.  
 
BELOW IS THE CURRENT NUMBER 1 AND 3.  
 
1...11.26 ON OCTOBER 17...1998  
2....9.87 ON MAY 25...2013  
3....9.52 ON JULY 1...2002  
 

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Srain

Srain

Posted
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Flash Flood Watch for S Central Texas beginning tomorrow morning:

 

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
416 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THROUGH 7 PM WEDNESDAY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BURNET TO BANDERA TO DERBY FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ANTICIPATED BURRO
(MEXICAN PLATEAU) THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
FURTHER EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. AS THE STORMS PROPAGATE FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THE MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL ENCOUNTER DEEP GULF
MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE COMPLEX
TRANSITIONING FROM ONE THAT PRODUCES SEVERE WEATHER (HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS) TO ONE THAT PRODUCES HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND CONDITIONS...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINS OVER
THE WATCH AREA COULD RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND RESULTANT FLASH
FLOODING.

TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-149-163-177-187-209-255-
259-285-287-325-453-491-493-290530-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.A.0003.130529T1200Z-130530T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-
DEWITT-FAYETTE-FRIO-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-LAVACA-
LEE-MEDINA-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLEASANTON...BANDERA...BASTROP...
SAN ANTONIO...BLANCO...BURNET...LOCKHART...NEW BRAUNFELS...
CUERO...LA GRANGE...PEARSALL...GONZALES...SEGUIN...SAN MARCOS...
KARNES CITY...BOERNE...HALLETTSVILLE...GIDDINGS...HONDO...
AUSTIN...GEORGETOWN...FLORESVILLE
416 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
  TEXAS...ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...
  BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DEWITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...
  GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...LAVACA...
  LEE...MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON.
 

 

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Srain

Srain

Posted
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A couple of feature we'll need to monitor as the weekend approaches. The Global GFS and Euro both are suggesting a frontal boundary dropping S into Texas and stalling. Also EPAC Tropical Depression 2 remnants may well be crossing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and pressures lower in the Bay of Campeche as abundant tropical moisture pools from both the Eastern Pacific and the Western Caribbean. Currently the reliable models suggest no real development in the Western Gulf, but the GFDL does attempt to draw a weak system N. The GFDL usually does not handle things well and is considered an outlier. That said increased moisture across the Western Gulf may fester next week and increase rainfall across NE Mexico as well as S and S Central Texas and possibly into SE Texas as that frontal boundary hangs around. We will see.

 

 

 

 

 

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Srain

Srain

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

A chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. 

 

Onshore flow continues to pump moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. Last evening LCH and CRP soundings showed PWS in the 1.61 to 1.49 inch range…just enough to get a few scattered fast moving showers on Tuesday. Satellite images show a plume of higher moisture levels moving NW form the central Gulf of Mexico and this is confirmed by early morning radar images from LCH and LIX (New Orleans) showing scattered showers moving northward out of the Gulf. The air mass over SE TX is slightly drier than area just to the east. Out west an overnight thunderstorm complex is dying over NE MX with high level cirrus clouds spreading downstream across much of SC and SE TX currently. This complex was formed on the leading edge of lift from a short wave over eastern New Mexico. This short wave will move NE today toward OK and additional thunderstorms are likely across SW into C TX this afternoon. Some of the high resolution meso models hit the areas E of I-35 into our western counties pretty good while other show very little development. Given the thick high level cirrus in place this morning…surface heating may be slowed but this may be offset by lift from the short wave. My current thinking is storms will fire further west where surface heating will be strongest and the dry line helping to act as a surface boundary. Across SE TX expect heating to eventually lead to northward moving showers in this tropical type air mass, but gusty south winds will prevent a well defined sea breeze front which would otherwise help to organize and focus convection. Will have to watch the overnight period for any thunderstorm complex out to the west which might/could affect our region. Chances of this appear low at the moment, with our NW counties standing the best chance of seeing any organized rainfall.

Onshore flow continues into the weekend with a weak frontal boundary moving into the area and stalling late in the weekend. While upper level ridging attempts to build out of MX over the next few days, it is not overly strong over our part of the state and given the onshore flow of deep moisture scattered daytime showers look to continue. Coverage may decrease some on Friday with the ridge near to our west.

 

Cool frontal boundary and associated trough of low pressure will progress across the plains this weekend with the boundary stalling and washing out over TX on Sunday. Should see numerous thunderstorms Saturday afternoon to our NW which move down into our area on Sunday. Will go with the wetter guidance as this boundary when combined with a surge of deep tropical moisture (PWS 1.8 in) looks to produce the potential for a late weekend wet period.

 

Tropics:
Elongate trough of low pressure extends from the SE US coast across FL to the western Caribbean Sea to the Pacific Ocean south of Mexico. Well defined tropical storm Barbara can be found at the SW end of this trough approaching the southern Mexican coast this morning. Radar images show a very well defined tropical cyclone with defined curved bands and at least an attempt at the formation of an eyewall. Barbara has about 8-10 hours left over warm water to reach hurricane status and this appears possible prior to landfall. After landfall the system will encounter the high mountains of southern Mexico and most guidance dissipate the system over MX which seems most likely given the small and fragile circulation shown on radar images. The GFDL model does bring Barbara northward fairly quickly and into the Bay of Campeche still as a defined circulation, but this seems overdone and unlikely at the moment.

 

Toward the middle to end of next week there is starting to be some global model agreement on the formation of a broad area of low pressure from the western Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This appears to be the result of the monsoon trough lifting slightly northward from MX to central America. The GFS shows pressure lowering and finally closing off over the Bay of Campeche while the ECMWF shows broad low pressure near the Yucatan. Given that this is about a week away, it is way too soon to attempt to determine where if at all tropical cyclone formation may occur. However this region will need to be watched late this weekend into much of next week.   

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cvgram

cvgram

Posted
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I'd like anything unseemly to stay away for awhile. Still haven't gotten the settlement on the roofs, a/c, siding, windows from insurance company for the 4/29 damage and just got the first bid on the roofs today. Turns out the one on the house will prolly hold for awhile but the one on the shop is likely to start leaking shortly. Heck, I'm not pleased with our 40% chance of storms for Sunday. I'll take the heat please.

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Srain

Srain

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The overnight models are in some what agreement that a ‘cool front’ will drop S into Texas on Thursday. The shorter term meso models are suggesting storms will develop across Central Texas as that boundary sags S into SE Texas. The Storm Prediction Center indicates a possibility that a Slight Risk will need to be expanded E into the Eastern Half of Texas. The focus of showers and storms will be along that frontal boundary and the best chance for storms appears to be N of I-10 tomorrow evening. As those storms wane on Friday, any left over boundaries and cold pooling may bring the better chances of showers/storms S of I-10 on Friday. The boundary should pull up stationary somewhere near the Coast late Friday. There are indications that the front will return N as a warm front bringing a return flow off the Gulf during the weekend. Isolated sea breeze showers and storms may be possible again on Sunday into early next week. 91L has a very brief chance to be classified as a tropical or sub tropical system as in moves NE toward Apalachicola on Friday. Wind shear and dry air should limited any real development as that rain maker for Florida and the SE US moves into the Atlantic this weekend.

 

 

 

 

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Srain

Srain

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO SW LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

   VALID 061728Z - 061900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SE TX INTO SW LA THIS
   AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
   WITH SEMI-DISCRETE STORM CLUSTERS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE
   NEXT HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...STORMS WERE
   DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR POLK COUNTY TX
   S/SEWD INTO BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SW LA. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
   INTERSECTING A SFC WIND SHIFT LINE IN THE VICINITY OF THE POLK
   COUNTY TX STORM. AGITATED CU FIELD WAS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE
   IMAGERY ALONG AND N OF THIS WIND SHIFT LINE TOWARD THE COLD FRONT
   LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE DAY. 17Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A
   WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE /APPROACHING
   2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE/. BULK SHEAR VALUES FROM 30-40 KT WILL AID IN
   ORGANIZATION OF SEMI-DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ADEQUATELY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL HELP MAINTAIN UPDRAFT STRENGTH...LEADING TO
   SEVERE HAIL THREAT. PW VALUES OVER 1.7 INCHES AND DCAPE VALUES
   NEARING 1000 J/KG WILL FURTHER INCREASE SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL IN
   ADDITION TO HAIL THREAT. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS AND EXPECTED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT...A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR.

   ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 06/06/2013


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
 

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Posted

Of course it split right above my town.  Lot of lightning though. 

 

Sweet SW moving outflow boundary visible on IAH TDWR, entering Montgomery County, 3000 J/Kg of MLCAPE, no CINH to speak of, yet storms refuse to fire.

 

I don't want to wait for broken storms up Highway 6 to maybe or maybe not make it down to my lawn.

 

I never paid attention before, but the TDWR has much better ability to see boundaries than the HGX 88D.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Posted

Major action between Cypress & Katy.  E of HOU getting drenched.

 

Just missed out on the fun in CLL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I had a nice 5 minute shower.  My lawn must have been the local min for HOU area rainfall, less than 0.2 per HGX 88D rainfall estimation.  But I skipped watering yesterday.  I haven't had a real soaker all year.  But doing better than 2011.  We have local MUD water wells, but the same time they bulldozed a path for another segment of TC Jester not far from my neighborhood around 2007 expecting new subdivisions, they also built a line to the San Jacinto River for added water supply, and even in 2011 I don't remember watering restrictions.  The bulldozed path through the woods for TC Jester remains, waiting for the economy to someday recover.  A lot less wildlife in my yard, which backs onto the woods, since it was divided into two.  No rabbit pellets in the backyard anymore.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Observation from insomnia.

 

NAM and GFS do not appear to have a good handle on the squall line moving South towards Abilene, and severe warned cells have moved beyond the SPC 1Z-12Z SWODY1.

 

05Z HRRR, which does have the storms ( 5 hour advantage on initializing) has squall line dying out mid morning, but new convection developing ahead of it all over much of Texas East of I-35 and Northeast of I-37 by lunch time.  That'd be cool

post-138-0-77883800-1370763780_thumb.gif

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CranberryWX

CranberryWX

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I had a nice 5 minute shower.  My lawn must have been the local min for HOU area rainfall, less than 0.2 per HGX 88D rainfall estimation.  But I skipped watering yesterday.  I haven't had a real soaker all year.  But doing better than 2011.  We have local MUD water wells, but the same time they bulldozed a path for another segment of TC Jester not far from my neighborhood around 2007 expecting new subdivisions, they also built a line to the San Jacinto River for added water supply, and even in 2011 I don't remember watering restrictions.  The bulldozed path through the woods for TC Jester remains, waiting for the economy to someday recover.  A lot less wildlife in my yard, which backs onto the woods, since it was divided into two.  No rabbit pellets in the backyard anymore.

At our new house north of The Woodlands we have been getting a good soaker about once a week.  The day after they dug the hole for our pool about 3" fell about filling the hole on 5/22.  I believe last week we got about another 1" according to a PWS nearby.  Next week is our moving time frame...looking forward to getting down here permanently and getting the weather station rigged up.

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Srain

Srain

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Posted

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Fairly active past couple of days across the area with a trough axis moving slowly from east to west across E TX interacting with tropical moisture to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms….especially on Sunday.

 

Trough/shear axis this morning has progressed closer to the coast and there is no incoming short wave/MCS from N TX to help aid in lift of the local air mass this morning. Moisture is still plentiful south of I-10 and expect surface heating and the inland moving seabreeze boundary to help fire off showers and thunderstorms by late morning along the coast and early afternoon along and S of I-10. Not sure there will be much activity inland of I-10 this afternoon as drier air mass and influences from building upper level ridging will be felt in this area. High resolution short term models which did well yesterday show afternoon scattered activity mainly south of I-10 today. Could see a few strong storms much like on Sunday with localized gusty winds being the main threat along with excessive short term rainfall.

 

May see another round of storms along the seabreeze on Tuesday before the upper ridge attempts to take hold. Models are not in great agreement on the placement of the ridge axis nor its southern flank and how much influence the ridge will have over the area toward the end of the week. Models are now suggesting a little bit more of a weakness in the ridge and possibly the area falling on the southern fringes of the high suggesting at least the potential for isolated seabreeze storms into the latter part of the week. I am not overly confident in post Wednesday rain chances, but it is something to keep an eye on as deeper tropical moisture will not be that far away. As for the heat, will temper back highs some as recent rains have helped to wet the ground and do not think many areas will reach 100 this week as previously thought. Best chance for areas to reach 100 will be over our N and NW counties closet to the ridge axis.

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wxmx

wxmx

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Posted

There was a strong severe t-storm yesterday in Mty. Hail, winds, rain, flash flood and especially the lightning were all present. It affected mostly the eastern 2/3's of the metro area (i live in the wern 1/3, and even I got the chair popping thunder, probably just a few hundred feet from the house). Lightning show consisted of once per second C2G and C2C lightning for at least 2-3 hours. A photo I took from my FB feed:

 

post-29-0-94699800-1370886213_thumb.jpg

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