Mid to late February Pattern Discussion...stormy or end of winter?

[toronto blizzard]

Euro ensembles have caved to the GEFS at times. It's important not to always fall in love with the euro ensembles.

True. If I'm not mistaken didn't the euro ensembles have this week forecasted to be warm?

[CoastalWx]

True. If I'm not mistaken didn't the euro ensembles have this week forecasted to be warm?

 

Yes they will end up too warm.

[weathafella]

I'm going out on a limb and calling for a record snow total for any calendar month for BOS this month,

[mfastx]

39

Snowpack obliterated.

[weathafella]

39

Snowpack obliterated.

Wtf? You live where? Big time pack imby 3 miles from bc.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Meh.

No muted torch here just mild temps with high dewpoints that devoured inch after inch of snow.

[mfastx]

Wtf? You live where? Big time pack imby 3 miles from bc.

 

In Boston, lol.  Piles are still there but snow is noticeably less.  I hate having all these hot days after snows.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Watch out for those Canadians.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39325-major-upgrade-coming-to-the-canadian-global-model/

[ORH_wxman]

Where's this torch talk coming from in the other threads about the next 2 weeks?

 

Am I missing something? It looks pretty seasonable to me over the next 10-14 days...there's a couple milder days in there but also a couple colder ones too (esp this coming PD weekend), nothing really greatly unseasonable. We may average out above normal...hard to say, but it looks far from a furnace.

[CoastalWx]

Where's this torch talk coming from in the other threads about the next 2 weeks?

 

Am I missing something? It looks pretty seasonable to me over the next 10-14 days...there's a couple milder days in there but also a couple colder ones too (esp this coming PD weekend), nothing really greatly unseasonable. We may average out above normal...hard to say, but it looks far from a furnace.

 

There's a lot of crap today. I have no clue where it is coming from.

[ORH_wxman]

There's a lot of crap today. I have no clue where it is coming from.

 

 

I all of the sudden was reading about torches upcoming for the rest of February and trying to find where that is coming from. I can def see a few milder days mixed in with the colder ones, but can't find this relentless torch signal.

 

Pattern still looks pretty active to me actually.

[CoastalWx]

I all of the sudden was reading about torches upcoming for the rest of February and trying to find where that is coming from. I can def see a few milder days mixed in with the colder ones, but can't find this relentless torch signal.

 

Pattern still looks pretty active to me actually.

 

Exactly, but apparently we are going back to the same progressive pattern because the POS system tomorrow is missing us.

Oh yeah, and we only got that blizzzard because it was a fluke.   Never mind the ridge out west and srn stream.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Exactly, but apparently we are going back to the same progressive pattern because the POS system tomorrow is missing us.

Oh yeah, and we only got that blizzzard because it was a fluke.   Never mind the ridge out west and srn stream.

 

lol.  I'll take an active southern stream pattern any day over the crap we've had up till this past weekend.

[ORH_wxman]

Exactly, but apparently we are going back to the same progressive pattern because the POS system tomorrow is missing us.

Oh yeah, and we only got that blizzzard because it was a fluke.   Never mind the ridge out west and srn stream.

 

 

I'll take 2-3 feet of "fluke" snow any day. We def got a bit lucky on that one, but that's why you like to have southern stream juice when we are lacking a blocked flow. Get those shortwaves more amped up.

 

We actually might block up the flow a bit coming up next week at some point. -NAO is starting to look like more of a possiblity.

[ORH_wxman]

I'll say this too about "luck"...if you want to say we got lucky on the KU event, I would agree, but then don't say we didn't get unlucky on some of those January setups. It goes both ways. We had some legit shots there that just didn't pan out do to a few nuances in the flow (too many cooks in the kitchen, or whatever it happened to be each time).

 

 

You hope the luck evens out in a winter where the patterns are favorable...then you end up with some nice storms. Last winter, the pattern was garbage 90% of the time, so it wasn't really unlucky that we had such a dearth of decent events.

[CoastalWx]

I mean there is always some luck in getting 2' of snow since things have to go right, but to say it was a fluke is flat out wrong.  Getting 2' of snow in a Nina pattern like '07-'08 from a random cutoff would be much more of a fluke since the flow is both progressive and no srn stream.

[dendrite]

2/20 piques my interest. Even if the primary goes west maybe we can finally pull a SWFE out of it. Have we even had a legitimate one this season? I'm not counting the overrunning 1-3" garbage events.

[Heisy]

This is a really good setup...It's also on the EURO as well. This storm would hit the 22nd-24th period. The best part is that there is a strong HP in SE Canada showing up on the EURO, EURO Ens, GFS OP, GFS ens....

 

 

[CoastalWx]

2/20 piques my interest. Even if the primary goes west maybe we can finally pull a SWFE out of it. Have we even had a legitimate one this season? I'm not counting the overrunning 1-3" garbage events.

Yeah that has an interesting look for you and then around 22 or so.

[Typhoon Tip]

Where's this torch talk coming from in the other threads about the next 2 weeks?

 

Am I missing something? It looks pretty seasonable to me over the next 10-14 days...there's a couple milder days in there but also a couple colder ones too (esp this coming PD weekend), nothing really greatly unseasonable. We may average out above normal...hard to say, but it looks far from a furnace.

 

 

It's probably my fault ...  I was commenting on the teleconnectors in that Feb 17-18 event thread:

 

"That ... and, it can't be winter for ever.  Just think, in a month, the way the last 20 years of climo have gone, we could just as well have a 75F afternoon - just one month.  

 

In fact, I was just looking over the tele's and they are god awful for the winter-heads, with the exception (maybe) of the NAO.    The NAO may be weakly negative for a week or two, which would certainly help.  But the EPO/PNA and ... statistical correlation to the MJO are all banging the end-of-winter drum.  Sorry - it's just the reality.   These latter could overwhelm the NAO, particularly if the NAO is comparatively weak.

 

I tell you one thing that is fascinating ... for me anyway, is that the AO seemingly never responded to a ginormous SSW/propagation event in the stratosphere this year.  Kept waiting for the bottom of the AO to drop out and it really has only been seasonally negative from time to time.  In fact, a lot of GEFs members are making the AO even positive by just 10 or so days from now.  Super-imposing that over a positive EPO/-PNA ...Phase 3-6 MJO, whether the operational GFS has this or not, but all those cyclical coastal it's been serving up on recent runs could quickly dry up and prove usual delusional noise.   They could anyway of course  ... but the teles really don't support that protracted stormy cold as the op GFS has had recently.

 

Would not shock me if we are closer the end on this 2012-2013 season -

 

Heh, guess there's bowling season for those unable to let go.  Perhaps the weekends deal really does deliver."

 

If the MJO was entering late Phase 6, and the PNA was rising, or the EPO falling, which they aren't, then I would not have posted that.  But the MJO heading into Phase 2, 3-...5 and 6 over the next 2 weeks, while EPO is rising is ...well, the opposite of good for winter affairs.   It just is what it is, or we can deny - either way.   

 

Here is the summary from MJO desk at NCEP:  

"For the U.S., the MJO favors, on average, the development of a mean trough across the western 

U.S. just after mid-February suggesting elevated chances for below normal temperatures. As we 

approach the end of February, the MJO would favor troughing near or along the west coast and a 

tendency toward a mean ridge across the eastern U.S.."

 

Now ... personally the MJO is less effectual/correlated on the pattern when there are forces in play opposing it's tropical-related forcing.   Unfortunately, with the nature of the Pacific teleconnector spread, there seems to be more of a positive re-inforcing influence there.  

 

We'll see - I think also bowling season has it's kind of own logic, too -

[OSUmetstud]

gfs is super stormy. 

[ORH_wxman]

The period around 2/22 is gaining ensemble support for a potential larger scale winter storm in the eastern U.S. Can't really say anything beyond that right now, but both GEFS and Euro ensembles have some cold air around...esp northern tier...and a pretty nice looking southern stream system running up into it.

 

 

This goes beyond the time range of this thread....but I also am thinking that flipping a switch to "Morch" as the month turns over is not going to be easy.

[CoastalWx]

The period around 2/22 is gaining ensemble support for a potential larger scale winter storm in the eastern U.S. Can't really say anything beyond that right now, but both GEFS and Euro ensembles have some cold air around...esp northern tier...and a pretty nice looking southern stream system running up into it.

This goes beyond the time range of this thread....but I also am thinking that flipping a switch to "Morch" as the month turns over is not going to be easy.

I agree. There is probably another threat or two as we move into that month too.

[ORH_wxman]

I agree. There is probably another threat or two as we move into that month too.

 

 

CFS weeklies def not buying Morch even through mid-month. CONUS looks cold and stormy...in fact the warmest region is near us, but its barely a tickle above average. CFS dumped th eidea of a torch March here too on the monthlies.

 

 

Not ready to go March 1993 or 2001 on us, but it doesn't look like winter will go quietly right now. Even if its not overly frigid. It seems very stormy.

 

 

The weird part abotu late Feb and into March, is that we see a reversal in our temp correlation with the PNA. January is the most hostile month for us to have a -PNA...however, by March, we actually have a positive correlation with PNA in New England to temp rather than an inverse correlation...so a -PNA actually has a weak below avg temp signal here. Combine it with a -NAO and you can have some fun.

 

 

It should be interesting going into the 2nd half of the month and early March. Given the -PNA and stormy look with a weak -NAO...I don't think we are finished by any stretch.

[CoastalWx]

CFS weeklies def not buying Morch even through mid-month. CONUS looks cold and stormy...in fact the warmest region is near us, but its barely a tickle above average. CFS dumped th eidea of a torch March here too on the monthlies.

 

 

Not ready to go March 1993 or 2001 on us, but it doesn't look like winter will go quietly right now. Even if its not overly frigid. It seems very stormy.

 

 

The weird part abotu late Feb and into March, is that we see a reversal in our temp correlation with the PNA. January is the most hostile month for us to have a -PNA...however, by March, we actually have a positive correlation with PNA in New England to temp rather than an inverse correlation...so a -PNA actually has a weak below avg temp signal here. Combine it with a -NAO and you can have some fun.

 

 

It should be interesting going into the 2nd half of the month and early March. Given the -PNA and stormy look with a weak -NAO...I don't think we are finished by any stretch.

I've neglected the weeklies with everything going on, but week 3 continues what week 2 is showing on the ensembles. Week 4 starts to build a SE ridge, but still a hint of a -NAO.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Welp, the 12z GFS advertises fun times ahead.  Just need to get through next week.

Day 9-10 has a nice coastal.

Day 13-16 offers up a nice 2-3 day Blizzard.

[Logan11]

It's hard to see that day 6-7 low cutting in the face of the negative NAO.

 

The 12z models have pronounced the coming weekend threat dead so the next one worth watching seems to be next Tuesday/Wednesday.

 

 

Welp, the 12z GFS advertises fun times ahead.  Just need to get through next week.

Day 9-10 has a nice coastal.

Day 13-16 offers up a nice 2-3 day Blizzard.

[ineedsnow]

see what it does today I guess

Watch out for those Canadians.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39325-major-upgrade-coming-to-the-canadian-global-model/

[Logan11]

The Canadian bowed on the weekend low....

Maybe still something for Maine or the maritimes.

It's setting up for the next event at 144 hrs.

see what it does today I guess

[Typhoon Tip]

I wonder what the longer term verification scores are for the CFS - 

 

Regardless, there still is less support for cold and storminess over the eastern CONUS for the time being, as offered/statistically correlated by the majority pantheon of teleconnectors and other indices.

 

But things can certainly change...   

 

1 the MJO is entering the warm octanes.  It's not a winter death sentence, no.   For one, it doesn't hang around, showing consistent daily progression such that by D7 it may already be entering phase 6.   The GFS ensembles then suggest it terminates around mid Phase 7, but that whole extended range is of course less than accurate and is likely to change.  In fact, so far this season, the tendency has been to weaken the wave prematurely - that "might" offer a teaser that a stronger Phase 7 or even 8 can be achieved by the 25th of the month.  NCEP's MJO desk stated in their weekly update, yesterday, the MJO progression favors western lowering geopotential mediums and thickness, with more ridging in the eastern CONUS evolving over the 2nd half of the month.   Good segue into number 2 -

 

2 the PNA and EPO situations suck, period.  Well, for winter enthusiasm.  Personally I've checked out with these 44F, post Feb 10th full sun days just destroying snow pack.  Ha, we were in CAA at 45F for high over a 15" snow pack yesterday.  We are already at the time of year where you need either a fresher polar air or dynamics, because air masses modify much faster than they did/do between mid November to late January.   Can't have our druthers, else I'd rip the b-aid off and just drill the seasonal change in, yesterday.    That said, the CDC shows a robust positive EPO and a robust negative PNA, in tandem, for the last 10 days of the month.  Simply put, warm.  That is hands down clearly the implication from that source, and there can be no argument.     This is furthering the trouble for the winter heads because what that means is you have a Pacific circulation that is in "constructive" wave interference with regard to the input from any 2-3-4-5 MJO -related forcing.   if these were the only concerns alone, you'd almost think late April were in route! 

 

3 the NAO is negative, in two pulses, each spanning some 5 days with only modest relaxation in between intervals over at CDC.   What is interesting is that the CPC does not agree.  I am almost wondering if the CPC is having trouble calculating the domain (unwittingly), though, because the NAO and PNA for that matter, are virtually flat lined nearly neutral with very little spread among the members, and almost no mode bias really detectable going out some 10 days for either.  This is true for both indices.  Given to having so much meridional flow structure among the operational runs, and their respective ensembles, that seems a little dubious to me.   There are some evidence for westerly-based NAO as suggested by some runs, as well as acceptable results of lifting repeated planetary waves into the C-Maritime region to question the CPC NAO, regardless.  If the CDC NAO is more telling...it would be interesting if points 1 and 2 would offset, or some how combine to producing important activity.   

 

In all ... you have two camps:  The CDC says it will be the (PNA/EPO/MJO) vs the NAO for determining the temperature and precipitation anomaly distribution;   the CPC says no conflict and  No Skill.