Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 C'mon Steve. Euro had 1 run up our fannies, now off the coast, GEFS no way close to this kind of bomb. Not going to happen IMHO. GGEM has probably been the best model, and it's not biting on this big coastal deal. That southern system won't time out right, Euro energy timing problems in the southern stream FTL, JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 C'mon Steve. Euro had 1 run up our fannies, now off the coast, GEFS no way close to this kind of bomb. Not going to happen IMHO. Why? Euro and it's Ens continue to indicate cyclogenesis. Pattern is changing. You can only forecast persistence for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 What was the intensity of the previous low we just saw cut to the west? 968, I think this has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Why would we see a bomb all the sudden? Not much has changed and it seems like another storm that would implode to a D-2" system about 72 hours out, lol.Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Guys, we have way more Pacific energy this time, so this IS different. Of course there is not guarantee it will fully phase, but it is not like the other storms we have been witnessing recently. There is real southern stream energy this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Coastal residents and EMA do not encompass the entire region. Good shot at accumulating snow in a good majority of the geo region per Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Coastal residents and EMA do not encompass the entire region. Good shot at accumulating snow in a good majority of the geo region per Euro. Disagree. Ride persistence until the horse throws me off. Most of the mets here pretty much agree. The euro kind of blows something up it of nothing. Good luck. But I do agree on the snow part. Just not a heckuvalot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Disagree. Ride persistence until the horse throws me off. Most of the mets here pretty much agree. The euro kind of blows something up it of nothing. Good luck. But I do agree on the snow part. Just not a heckuvalot. Euro has done this all winter. It's not like it stayed consistent with the 0z run it went east...one more run and the energy escapes se like all the other models. IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Euro ensembles still look decent with an overrunning look and cold air moving into the Plains. SE ridge would keep storm track active I would think. Even a weak -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Euro ensembles still look decent with an overrunning look and cold air moving into the Plains. SE ridge would keep storm track active I would think. Even a weak -NAO. Yeah still trending more amped with the AK ridge. Hopefully we have a nice cold air supply to the north but with the southern stream more active and a slight SE ridge look, we can get some pretty fun events out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah still trending more amped with the AK ridge. Hopefully we have a nice cold air supply to the north but with the southern stream more active and a slight SE ridge look, we can get some pretty fun events out of that. I'm actually glad Canada stays cold and snowy it appears...even the nrn tier. We will soon be getting into the time of year where the sun will heat bare ground (aka last winter and 2010) so we need the cold refrigerated as much as possible heading towards March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Cautious optimism on Friday's event after seeing the Euro Ens mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 94-94 look by D15? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Do we still torch 9-14th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Do we still torch 9-14th? Yes...though its really just the cutter...maybe Feb 11-13. The cutter is kind of weak though, so I wouldn't expect the type of onslaught for 18 hours like we saw in the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yes...though its really just the cutter...maybe Feb 11-13. The cutter is kind of weak though, so I wouldn't expect the type of onslaught for 18 hours like we saw in the last one.Sounds like just enough to ruin whatever pack we can muster up from the 2 snow events this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Sounds like just enough to ruin whatever pack we can muster up from the 2 snow events this week Yeah if we don't get more than 6" or so...then whatever falls probably wouldn't survive. Not that a 1-2" pack is all that sacred to hold onto. But if we get lucky and the Friday storm dumps on us, I don't think it would melt out in the warmup. Pattern reloads in the PAC though afterward, so we'll have another round of chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah if we don't get more than 6" or so...then whatever falls probably wouldn't survive. Not that a 1-2" pack is all that sacred to hold onto. But if we get lucky and the Friday storm dumps on us, I don't think it would melt out in the warmup. Pattern reloads in the PAC though afterward, so we'll have another round of chances. Much more interesting look to the "torch" for CNE/NNE on the 18z GFS. We keep the cutter unphased and just end up with a marginal northern stream system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Much more interesting look to the "torch" for CNE/NNE on the 18z GFS. We keep the cutter unphased and just end up with a marginal northern stream system. Yeah indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah indeed. A little CAA behind the northern stream helping to setup a southern stream bomb? lalaland, but it'd be nice to have a cutter fail for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 A little CAA behind the northern stream helping to setup a southern stream bomb? lalaland, but it'd be nice to have a cutter fail for once. Maybe we can turn the cutter into a sheared wave OTS????? Winter 2012-2013.... gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Maybe we can turn the cutter into a sheared wave OTS????? Winter 2012-2013.... gotta love it. The longer term one probably has 50-50 odds of being sheared. Seems to be heading that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The 2/13 system remains a nightmare for snow sports heading into the vacation week on 2/13 per the GFS. Let's hope that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 The 06z GEFS are just brutal cold for the CONUS in the long range...not sure I believe the magnitude of that, but its definitely loving the -EPO. The Euro ensembles continue to build up the AK ridge in the long range, but the 00z run was liking the idea of digging the trough more to the SW and having a SE ridge, so it would be a big gradient pattern which could either be good for us or potentially screw us. Still a lot of features to figure out between now and next week as we get clsoer, but I do think that winter is far from over for the CONUS...more confidence in that part. The lower confidence is how we fare in our BYs. The SE ridge idea definitely raises the stakes if it comes to pass because it can be potentially very active with a lot of cold air available, but cutters always remain a very realistic possibility in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The 06z GEFS are just brutal cold for the CONUS in the long range...not sure I believe the magnitude of that, but its definitely loving the -EPO. The Euro ensembles continue to build up the AK ridge in the long range, but the 00z run was liking the idea of digging the trough more to the SW and having a SE ridge, so it would be a big gradient pattern which could either be good for us or potentially screw us. Still a lot of features to figure out between now and next week as we get clsoer, but I do think that winter is far from over for the CONUS...more confidence in that part. The lower confidence is how we fare in our BYs. The SE ridge idea definitely raises the stakes if it comes to pass because it can be potentially very active with a lot of cold air available, but cutters always remain a very realistic possibility in that setup. Yeah you summed it up well. The Plains could get very cold for sure, but we may be on the fence here. Given what we've endured, I'll take that look and run for now. We'll see how things look as we approach this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Is torch still on track 10-13th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Is torch still on track 10-13th? Yeah, or 11-14 or so..something like that. Although, the op runs have tried to limit the extent of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yeah, or 11-14 or so..something like that. Although, the op runs have tried to limit the extent of it. Yeah I could see a pretty mundane torch with upper 30s or lower 40s type highs for a couple days. Though if we get a stronger cutter, then it could try and spike 50F for a day, but right now it looks pretty tame. The 06z GFS actually kept the first system that was a potential cutter flat and gave a snow/ice event, lol...but then it ejected the SW energy and produced a bomb into the lakes a couple days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Sounds like what we had in mid Jan with a meh 1-2 days 38-40 and then one awful day of 50's. hopefully we can eliminate that one roaster to protect snowpack we get tomorrow nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The winter, as I posted in the other thread, is shaping up a bit like 2006-07 if we believe modeling. Very mild start, then a sharp turn to colder in mid to late January with a cold/snowy February. That was an historically cold February though, whereas this one looks to be a bit closer to normal. 06-07 was remembered as a decent winter in Northern New England with the Valentine's Day/St. Patty's Day/Tax Day systems, as the period from early February to mid April was ridiculously cold and snowy. Will this winter also be remembered as the tale of two very different seasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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