Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Think Euro is too amped..A track Over or near the BM dropping 6-12 is probably more likely..Trend all year has been SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Thing that sucks is it is brings in a warm patten after it..so it's one of those deals where we finally get a good storm and it melts 2 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Think Euro is too amped..A track Over or near the BM dropping 6-12 is probably more likely..Trend all year has been SE. Until it goes too far SE, then we'll all say it'll probably tick back NW The trend all year has been for no system at all, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Euro and ensembles have quite the storm day 6. The op is great for CNE and the ensembles or most of us. Euro faux storm or for real? Well that is the big question. That storm as modeled on the op would be a great snowstorm up here, and GYX is noticing it. HPC doesn't mention it at all really. I'd say the odds are against it, but maybe we get a break at some point. I am interested in how the Euro slows the flow down and that storm doesn't speed up. Also wondering if it happens as modeled on the Euro ) helps to push the next storm further s and e? 12Z will be interesting to see if this is just euro-madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The SOI has also recently taken a huge plunge, I wonder if that might help to juice up the STJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 If anybody wants to post winter is over, that's fine, but back it up with science and not because "well this winter has sucked so I expect it to continue...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Thing that sucks is it is brings in a warm patten after it..so it's one of those deals where we finally get a good storm and it melts 2 days later. Archie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 If anybody wants to post winter is over, that's fine, but back it up with science and not because "well this winter has sucked so I expect it to continue...." I agree with that and am optimistic, based on the science, about the second half of Feb. On the other hand, patterns repeat and I suspect there are subtle factors that are less known or seen right now, which continue to get us shtty outcomes. For example, what keeps driving such a fast flow even when models project it to slow down a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Still thinking the 9th is our big legitimate shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I agree with that and am optimistic, based on the science, about the second half of Feb. On the other hand, patterns repeat and I suspect there are subtle factors that are less known or seen right now, which continue to get us shtty outcomes. For example, what keeps driving such a fast flow even when models project it to slow down a bit? We'll see it slow down at the end of this week. Once that PV moves west, the flow will become more amplified. That may mean a cutter near the 10th-12th or so, but then we'll start seeing more storms coming out of the sw an srn plains towards mid month. Of course it means not every storm may give us snow...but the regime does change. It certainly won't be as cold, and we'll have more storms I think. Nobody can say for sure this far out if it will be a snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 If anybody wants to post winter is over, that's fine, but back it up with science and not because "well this winter has sucked so I expect it to continue...."True but what good has all the science done so far? We've had like 500 pages of science per flake since early January. I'd argue that beyond about 48 hours its all been talk based on models that have not demonstrated much skill so although its usually good scientific talk its mainly academic and theoretical based on conditions that never end up occurring. Most of us don't have access to the 10-15 day euro ens. What we can see is one storm that looks promising and one potential cutter. At this range no model has demonstrated any significant skill when they've shown a snowy hit here this winter, really only advertised cutters have worked out. The euro, gfs, uk, ggem and the ensembles have all taken turns advertising major lows day 5-8 only to lose them within a run or two. If it sticks for another run or two I think most of us will be much more apt to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Kudos to the very few who didn't buy into the garbage Euro ens @RaleighWx: Euro ENS look to be bending to the colder GFS ENS in the extended. Little slower progression, but colder look than last week's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Weenie folder euro op run there. 1-2ft up here. Now if we can get something other than the DGEX to show a monster storm we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 True but what good has all the science done so far? We've had like 500 pages of science per flake since early January. I'd argue that beyond about 48 hours its all been talk based on models that have not demonstrated much skill so although its usually good scientific talk its mainly academic and theoretical based on conditions that never end up occurring. Most of us don't have access to the 10-15 day euro ens. What we can see is one storm that looks promising and one potential cutter. At this range no model has demonstrated any significant skill when they've shown a snowy hit here this winter, really only advertised cutters have worked out. The euro, gfs, uk, ggem and the ensembles have all taken turns advertising major lows day 5-8 only to lose them within a run or two. If it sticks for another run or two I think most of us will be much more apt to discuss. The one thing they all showed is a progressive pattern. We've said that for the last two weeks. When you have that, models will have a horrible time with timing s/w's. It's a shame because we've had some great features imgojng for us that have produced in the past. There is a reason why those analog packages were showing some prolific periods. But, in the end the PV was place in a spot that meant cold and dry, kiss 'em goodbye. Just a crappy position.We likely will have some sort of a cutter, but we'll have to see how the ridging on all models redevelops after mid month. The GEFS are most aggressive, but the Euro ensembles try to show this too. There is some teleconnection argument from the tropics as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 And anyway not having seen the euro ens 10+ but based on what others were saying....my feeling was A compromise from the likely too cold gefs and euro was in order which would basically have taken what was a run or two of pure snow gold and made it potentially tougher on the coast. One cutter seems like a somewhat probable outcome right now, the rest are toss ups between snowy hits, messes and misses as of right now. Where it ends up who knows. Edit: Scott we were saying the same thing at the same time. Probably one cutter after that who knows. Just remember most of us don't have access to the euro ens so it's all relative anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 You realize p3 is rather cold fr is right? Aren't the effects of the MJO lagged in time, so that below average temperatures in the eastern US from phase 3, for example, might be due to MJO activity in a previous phase? Couldn't you then use the current MJO activity (if the signal is strong enough) to lend support for future temperature anomalies in the eastern US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Aren't the effects of the MJO lagged in time, so that below average temperatures in the eastern US from phase 3, for example, might be due to MJO activity in a previous phase? Couldn't you then use the current MJO activity (if the signal is strong enough) to lend support for future temperature anomalies in the eastern US? Yeah it's like 5-7 days I think. The MJO doesn't have to mean warm or cold weather developing, but it's a tool that can be used to help support an overall warm or cold look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 And anyway not having seen the euro ens 10+ but based on what others were saying....my feeling was A compromise from the likely too cold gefs and euro was in order which would basically have taken what was a run or two of pure snow gold and made it potentially tougher on the coast. One cutter seems like a somewhat probable outcome right now, the rest are toss ups between snowy hits, messes and misses as of right now. Where it ends up who knows. Edit: Scott we were saying the same thing at the same time. Probably one cutter after that who knows. Just remember most of us don't have access to the euro ens so it's all relative anyway. Oh I know, just wanted I say what they show. Trust me, I have flags up...but it doesn't look terrible at all IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 We'll see it slow down at the end of this week. Once that PV moves west, the flow will become more amplified. That may mean a cutter near the 10th-12th or so, but then we'll start seeing more storms coming out of the sw an srn plains towards mid month. Of course it means not every storm may give us snow...but the regime does change. It certainly won't be as cold, and we'll have more storms I think. Nobody can say for sure this far out if it will be a snowy. If we keep that big ridge out towards AK then would there not be a cold supply to tap, and would we not possibly see those sneaky highs that cause swfes out of storm that seem to want to cut? The Hudson Bay Vortex seems to be setting up and that can cause just enough suppression for NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Weenie folder euro op run there. 1-2ft up here. Now if we can get something other than the DGEX to show a monster storm we're in business. The EURO in that day 5-10 range has been about as accurate as the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 If we keep that big ridge out towards AK then would there not be a cold supply to tap, and would we not possibly see those sneaky highs that cause swfes out of storm that seem to want to cut? The Hudson Bay Vortex seems to be setting up and that can cause just enough suppression for NE. No ridging into AK is a great thing. That's a -EPO which can be very chilly for us if other things cooperate. You may be thinking of ridging in the Aleutians which can cause a -PNA and make it not so cold here. But AK ridging is a piece of the puzzle and it is not everything. We need to see how the trough sets up in the Midwest after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 No ridging into AK is a great thing. That's a -EPO which can be very chilly for us if other things cooperate. You may be thinking of ridging in the Aleutians which can cause a -PNA and make it not so cold here. But AK ridging is a piece of the puzzle and it is not everything. We need to see how the trough sets up in the Midwest after next weekend. My grammar was bad...I meant to say that the AK ridging was good even if the pattern looks cutterish, because it would mean a cold supply, sneaky highs, and combined with a HB low...lows that look like cutter but become swfe/redevelopers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Interesting. Euro has Friday system over our heads, but the ensemble mean is to the east of the operational and in a pretty good spot. Will have to monitor this in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 My grammar was bad...I meant to say that the AK ridging was good even if the pattern looks cutterish, because it would mean a cold supply, sneaky highs, and combined with a HB low...lows that look like cutter but become swfe/redevelopers. Oh lol. Well it does not guarantee sneaky highs forcing a SWFE because you can have a ton of energy diving in the east side of that ridge ino the high plains. I would love to be wrong, but I think we'll have a cutter after the 10th. Maybe you guys can limit the damage as always up there, but I'm feeling a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Will Boston even get to 10" this week? 20" for the season? What say you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Wow Scott, you are right....EC ensembles really pumping up the AK ridge now. That would definitely cancel the torch for much of the CONUS for the 2nd half of Feb if it actually develops like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Wow Scott, you are right....EC ensembles really pumping up the AK ridge now. That would definitely cancel the torch for much of the CONUS for the 2nd half of Feb if it actually develops like that. Yeah let's hope. I mean maybe we have that stupid cutter, but looks improved after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah let's hope. I mean maybe we have that stupid cutter, but looks improved after. Haven't we had some Alaskan ridging over the last few weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Haven't we had some Alaskan ridging over the last few weeks? Yes which is why we've been cold minus the previous cutter when a trough carved out of the sw. My point is that if we can get the PV further west and still keep the AK ridging....it certainly opens the door up for more storms. I know they may not be all frozen, but if we can get increases storminess...I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The models look cold from my amature eyes basically the east looks rather promising especially mid month no s.e ridge threatening 40 degrees north anyone discounting the rest of winter will probably be pleasantly surprised. Pineapple express only looks like an orange for now but its a hell of alot better than last year just my thought then again like gordon lightfoot would say if you could read my mind we'd have blizz conditions once a week.Peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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