Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Mid to late February Pattern Discussion...stormy or end of winter?


ORH_wxman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 941
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Man some decent cold signals heading into March. Seasonal calls for Morch rapidly going down the toilet. Love it. The

I think we could see a heck of a storm over the CONUS maybe mid month or so. The PNA ridge may be retrograding and we still have weak ridging into Greenland. Maybe it's the 10th or something..point is we could see a good storm or two somewhere in the Midwest or Northeast.

I know you despise my analogs but the number of big storms showing up in that time period really is eye opening. Put it this way, Jerry, Jeff, Me and even Matty Zwyts fantasy storms are on the list. Lol
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know you despise my analogs but the number of big storms showing up in that time period really is eye opening. Put it this way, Jerry, Jeff, Me and even Matty Zwyts fantasy storms are on the list. Lol

 

I don't despise analogs at all...my issue is sometimes they are misused. Not you...just some people I think run away with the idea of getting another Feb 69, Mar 93....etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man some decent cold signals heading into March. Seasonal calls for Morch rapidly going down the toilet. Love it. 

 

I think we could see a heck of a storm over the CONUS maybe mid month or so. The PNA ridge may be retrograding and we still have weak ridging into Greenland. Maybe it's the 10th or something..point is we could see a good storm or two somewhere in the Midwest or Northeast.

Think we see any fresh cold air?   This airmass now is pretty stale and looks to hang around for awhile (at least through this week)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Think we see any fresh cold air?   This airmass now is pretty stale and looks to hang around for awhile (at least through this week)

 

It looks like after next weekend the blocking relaxes a bit and actually the Pacific takes over. This allows for colder air to move south. It's actually possible temps later in the first week of march or into week 2 are colder then they are now. We are close to a few storm chances over the next 10 days..tough to say if they clip us or not. The blocking isn't as west based as it looked earlier and hence things got shifted east. As the pattern relaxes and the Pacific improves..I still see signs for continued storminess right through mid month. I think it could be quite fun for some of us. I talked to our long range guy...if I have a chance I'll post some stuff later. He had some interesting charts showing why the so called IO convection just fizzled and so did Morch. The current convection now over Indonesia should drift east and possibly help build the ridging into the Pacific...but this too may weaken in about a week. There isn't a lot of strong signals right now to force a pattern...but the opposite is also true...there isn't a huge signal to destroy it either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looks like after next weekend the blocking relaxes a bit and actually the Pacific takes over. This allows for colder air to move south. It's actually possible temps later in the first week of march or into week 2 are colder then they are now. We are close to a few storm chances over the next 10 days..tough to say if they clip us or not. The blocking isn't as west based as it looked earlier and hence things got shifted east. As the pattern relaxes and the Pacific improves..I still see signs for continued storminess right through mid month. I think it could be quite fun for some of us. I talked to our long range guy...if I have a chance I'll post some stuff later. He had some interesting charts showing why the so called IO convection just fizzled and so did Morch. The current convection now over Indonesia should drift east and possibly help build the ridging into the Pacific...but this too may weaken in about a week. There isn't a lot of strong signals right now to force a pattern...but the opposite is also true...there isn't a huge signal to destroy it either.

Cool.  Even if we have  a chance at something decent (obviously best chances north and east of me) that's enough to keep me interested.   The MJO is a wildcard too?  Looks like it's supposed to go into the circle of death-hopefully it doesnt come back out in Phases 4-6

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looks like after next weekend the blocking relaxes a bit and actually the Pacific takes over. This allows for colder air to move south. It's actually possible temps later in the first week of march or into week 2 are colder then they are now. We are close to a few storm chances over the next 10 days..tough to say if they clip us or not. The blocking isn't as west based as it looked earlier and hence things got shifted east. As the pattern relaxes and the Pacific improves..I still see signs for continued storminess right through mid month. I think it could be quite fun for some of us. I talked to our long range guy...if I have a chance I'll post some stuff later. He had some interesting charts showing why the so called IO convection just fizzled and so did Morch. The current convection now over Indonesia should drift east and possibly help build the ridging into the Pacific...but this too may weaken in about a week. There isn't a lot of strong signals right now to force a pattern...but the opposite is also true...there isn't a huge signal to destroy it either.

Yeah I'm afraid those thinking spring or even climo are really going to be disappointed as we move thru the next 3-4 weeks. We've got quite a bit of cold and snow to go
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cool.  Even if we have  a chance at something decent (obviously best chances north and east of me) that's enough to keep me interested.   The MJO is a wildcard too?  Looks like it's supposed to go into the circle of death-hopefully it doesnt come back out in Phases 4-6

 

MJO is all fooked up. Don't pay much attention to those dynamic model charts. There are Kelvin waves moving east and Rossby waves moving west acting to constructively and destructively interfere.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This month turned out to be disappointing after the pattern looked so promising following the Blizzard. This was a one-storm month for many areas.

BOS will finish low to mid 30s for February snow. Sucks doesn't it. The 30 inches in 8 days really was disappointing. The best part was good snow cover all month virtually. Get ahold of yourself Nate!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...