Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 OP Euro is the GFS sans the cold bias. Fantasy land anyway, but just a series of warm systems after the one for CNE/NNE through the 12th on the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 OP Euro is the GFS sans the cold bias. Fantasy land anyway, but just a series of warm systems after the one for CNE/NNE through the 12th on the op. The cold bias doesn't exist per some posts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The cold bias doesn't exist per some posts here. I think in the 8-15 day range this year most of the time it's pushed the cold air too far SE. I believe the GEFS in particular still have a documented bias in the NE quadrant. Both would favor the model pushing storms a bit too far east. JMHO, we may be battling mess in this next pattern in the CP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I may be a day early but the 8th 9th looking nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Sort of a weenis-ish statement, but NE in general is probably in a decent spot for the 8th, given the seasonal trend..lol. Hopefully this moves a little more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 There are a handful of posters on here who remind me so much of "Steve from Fall River" on WEEI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Wow...euro is sweet up here on the 8th. We need the snow bad. There are a handful of posters on here who remind me so much of "Steve from Fall River" on WEEI. :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Does the red mean snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Does the red mean snow? Yeah alot of snow. Get the swimming pool ready and keep the sunscreen handy. Could get messy out their. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 That 8-14 day is tainted by days 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 That 8-14 day is tainted by days 8-12. And this winter is tainted by it sucking... True, but we're in for another mildup per NCEP. Joy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 And this winter is tainted by it sucking... True, but we're in for another mildup per NCEP. Joy That's been in the cards for a week now. Hopefully the models are correct with rebuilding ridge and srn stream disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 That's been in the cards for a week now. Hopefully the models are correct with rebuilding ridge and srn stream disturbances. I believe 100% we're going to see an increase in southern disturbances. If I had to guess though the CP is going to see some warmer air along with at least some of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I believe 100% we're going to see an increase in southern disturbances. If I had to guess though the CP is going to see some warmer air along with at least some of them. That goes without saying..but still better than cold/dry. feb climo down here will help the coast out anyway. I'll take my chances with an active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 That goes without saying..but still better than cold/dry. feb climo down here will help the coast out anyway. I'll take my chances with an active pattern. Yeah that's how you should approach it. Of course it all won't be frozen, but in order to get any snow, you need the storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Yeah that's how you should approach it. Of course it all won't be frozen, but in order to get any snow, you need the storms! It's all long range but the 18z GFS would better illustrate what I was mentioning. Back the cold off a little and there's more room to take the inside routes. IMO one of the options on the table is a flip the other way now to storms but wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Wonder if I can pull off two Februarys in a row with 0.0" If we escape tomorrow, I think we may have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Wonder if I can pull off two Februarys in a row with 0.0" If we escape tomorrow, I think we may have a chance. Not happening. Unless we are using Miami as verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Not happening. Unless we are using Miami as verification. Or Groton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Or Groton.pretty sure Groton has more snow than you since Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 • The MJO remained active over the past week but observational indicators continued to become less coherent. The enhanced convective phase is centered across the western Hemisphere. • Other forms of subseasonal variability remain active and have contributed to making the MJO signal less clear. This is expected to be temporary and dynamical model MJO index forecasts are in good agreement of renewed eastward propagation during the period. • Primarily based on dynamical model MJO index forecasts, the MJO is forecast to remain active with the enhanced convective phase shifting to Africa over the next 2 weeks. • The MJO favors enhanced rainfall across parts of the south central Pacific Ocean and suppressed convection for the eastern Indian Ocean (Week-1), the Maritime continent (Weeks 1-2) and the western Pacific (Week-2). • For the U.S., the MJO favors, on average, split flow and ridging across the western U.S. and a mean trough across the east until about mid-February. The MJO would also favor an active southern jet during this similar period. Thereafter, the MJO would support a tendency for a mean trough to develop across the western U.S. near the last week of February. ...I like their use of terms such as "favors", and "tendency", because the MJO is just one factor, and can be muted down to almost no observable correlation on the pattern if there our counter-balancing exertions in the circulation system overall - for example, when the WPO is out of phase with the MJO, good luck - It's hard to introduce tropical forcing to the middle latitudes if their is no channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Given that some of the other threads have become almost unreadable due to the constant whining, I thought I would create something where fooks who are still interested in the meteorology of the pattern for February can read/post without distraction. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Same thing on this 00z op. GFS, 180 hour depiction that's been afflicting this mid winter; ridge too far west, flow splits, lowering heights dig SW, height build over the Gulf, N stream then brings cold heights, causing too fast of a flow. This one panel is kind of microcosm that illustrates the wave interference of the whole. Split flows have produced in the past; mix events, ice storms, overrunning, ...etc. Why this year hasn't would require a case by case study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Same thing on this 00z op. GFS, 180 hour depiction that's been afflicting this mid winter; ridge too far west, flow splits, lowering heights dig SW, height build over the Gulf, N stream then brings cold heights, causing too fast of a flow. This one panel is kind of microcosm that illustrates the wave interference of the whole. Split flows have produced in the past; mix events, ice storms, overrunning, ...etc. Why this year hasn't would require a case by case study. 0z GGEM is a toaster bath. Weak system on the 6th same old same old....next two are cutters. The 2/8 system cuts across southeast Canada or northern New England...warm south of CNE, the 2/12 is a super cutter like the other day, going 987 way into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 mike ventrice posted "As most are aware, there is incredible model volatility between the GFS and ECMWF in the upcoming two weeks. I've been leaning towards a warmer solution for much of the NE US, consistent with the EC runs, however GFS is showing a large trough diving down the central US interior... sliding eastward thereafter. After a bit of digging around, I just noticed that the GFS is holding up a strong eastward propagating convectively-coupled Kelvin wave over S. America in the next week... The easiest way to illustrate this is a time-longitude plot of 850 hPa Velocity Potential anomalies. Here the warm colors represent low-level convergence. You can see a fast moving positive VP850 anomaly from the dateline on Jan 28, and currently is located at approx 60W today. Once in GFS-forecast mode, it keeps this signal stationary, with NO eastward propagation thereafter. In MJO-phase space his type of evolution would suggest a hold up in phase 8... which you can see in the diagram below. I'm fairly confident this type of MJO-evolution will not occur, and we should see a continous eastward propagation through the upcoming week, with a decent signal in MJO-phase 2-3 by Feb 7-10-> consistent with ECMWF Ens predictions. So that being said... I'm leaning towards more of a EC outcome in extratropcal circulation patterns for upcoming few weeks." i'm fairly confident this winter blows and will continue to blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 mike ventrice posted i'm fairly confident this winter blows and will continue to blow Good stuff thanks for sharing. I'd see no reason to pick the gfs over the euro or even ggem in the longer range. Is Mike QVec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Euro ensembles in the long range deifnitely got a bit better again with the ridge into NW Canada/AK. We'll see how it looks as we get closer. I am in the camp that winter isn't over mid-month....at least right now. And getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 mike ventrice posted i'm fairly confident this winter blows and will continue to blow You realize p3 is rather cold fr is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Good stuff thanks for sharing. I'd see no reason to pick the gfs over the euro or even ggem in the longer range. Is Mike QVec? I see a reason. The Euro is going To be too warm....it's already coming back down to earth. The gfs is probably too cold, but a compromise would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Euro and ensembles have quite the storm day 6. The op is great for CNE and the ensembles or most of us. Euro faux storm or for real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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