Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Mid to late February Pattern Discussion...stormy or end of winter?


ORH_wxman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 941
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Which one...  

 

There were actually two important events between the 15th and 20th of that month in '56.     The late 16th through the 17th translated a deep bomb, down to 970mb, about 50 mi s of ACK.  Then there was a lull.  A day and half later... 18th -20th, a moderately intense cut-off meandered, a 998-1004mb type coastal low crawled NE across 2 and half days.   

John, you describe it to me as if you were there but it was before you were born. The Friday system in northern nj was a quick hitting 4-6 inches. On Sunday only 1-2 was forecasted but we got close to 2 feet of wind blown paste with ridiculous drifts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wish we would have seen this pattern develop earlier this winter

 

What - you mean where we continuously get boned out of exciting systems, and the atmosphere pulls off a whopper +PNA / -NAO and all that potential gets wasted ?  okay

 

j/k.   Seems a bit like that though.  I was just saying in that 27th thread, the models are not really doing much out of that interval of time between ... the 25th and about Mar 2.  The NAO flexes in there and there is a big negative node that evolve through the OV-MA and south of the region, and the models seem to just leave it at that.  There are hints though - perhaps there is wave interference.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

John, you describe it to me as if you were there but it was before you were born. The Friday system in northern nj was a quick hitting 4-6 inches. On Sunday only 1-2 was forecasted but we got close to 2 feet of wind blown paste with ridiculous drifts.

 

Ha ha - muah hahahahha. 

 

No I was discussing it with Harv -   He actually told me there were 4 systems across 10 days in there.   When I wrote that I was referring to the NCEP libraries and those specific dates.   

 

The one you describe was probably the 970mb bomb!

 

I am jealous - usually I've hung up winter stock by March most years, but that was so special;  I wish that would redux.  Pretty amazing month that year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ha ha - muah hahahahha. 

 

No I was discussing it with Harv -   He actually told me there were 4 systems across 10 days in there.   When I wrote that I was referring to the NCEP libraries and those specific dates.   

 

The one you describe was probably the 970mb bomb!

 

I am jealous - usually I've hung up winter stock by March most years, but that was so special;  I wish that would redux.  Pretty amazing month that year. 

That was in a series of great march patterns. I also have discussed it with Harv because we were young boys growing up in the nyc metro area approximately the same age.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kind of a cool handoff from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Right after we had enough of the rotted airmass recycled in from the -NAO, the -NAO weakens and the Pacific ridging builds so colder air enters the CONUS..all the while there is still weak -NAO blocking. Verbatim the temps drop heading into week 2 in March. Morch seems less and less likely as something that persists for more than a week and likely pushed back towards the end of the month if at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kind of a cool handoff from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Right after we had enough of the rotted airmass recycled in from the -NAO, the -NAO weakens and the Pacific ridging builds so colder air enters the CONUS..all the while there is still weak -NAO blocking. Verbatim the temps drop heading into week 2 in March. Morch seems less and less likely as something that persists for more than a week and likely pushed back towards the end of the month if at all.

 

 

That's really cold for March 10th on the ensembles...esp that far out of a prog.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lately, it just seems like an upper level spinning around over or near the northeast for March 1st.  The whole thing lacks baroclinicity.  It could trend better...but right now it just looks like "100 hours of snow showers"

 

 

 

I like cut-off upper level lows overhead with moisture trapped.

 

Which can be very profitable with the right wind direction...I know its the same in the Lake Effect belt, where a forecast for snow showers can mean a good deal of snow.   Lots of President's Week vacationers got to see over a foot of snow showers on Wed/Thurs.  I remember a guy saying to me on Wednesday night after our 3rd hour of 2"/hr snows that the NWS forecast called for "snow showers" and he assumed that meant like flurries. 

 

I love the forecasts that say like, "Snow Showers.  New snow accumulation of 6-10 inches.  High near 20.  Chance of snow 100%."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man some decent cold signals heading into March. Seasonal calls for Morch rapidly going down the toilet. Love it. 

 

I think we could see a heck of a storm over the CONUS maybe mid month or so. The PNA ridge may be retrograding and we still have weak ridging into Greenland. Maybe it's the 10th or something..point is we could see a good storm or two somewhere in the Midwest or Northeast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This month turned out to be disappointing after the pattern looked so promising following the Blizzard. This was a one-storm month for many areas.

It was an epic month because of the blizzard, I mean la epic, my point was and still is since then its been dissapointing, 4th rain event since Feb 9 just finished up here without any accumulating snow since feb 9th.  For extreme eastern areas a couple nickle and dimers, so I am sure its a much more wintery feel.  OKX has me mid 40s all week and rain, mid week will mark the 5th rain even in a row, in a very promising pattern...........obviously there will be those to the north that might get some snow so its all relative.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...