Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Nothing's really changed in the overnight teleconnector spread... The 2 weeks are still rife with potential, which understates. The Euro op. -derived PNA is off the charts heading toward the 1st of March. Normally the PNA starts to lose some correlation heading into March, but it is too early for that assumption now - particularly with this much cross-guidance, enormous clustering of concerted agreement on a massive +PNA episode. To do so would be unwise. Meanwhile, the NAO is negative. Currently as we've been humoring along ... there is a 100 hour thingy - it's really more just a massive field-response nadir to all that forcing on huge scales. It still may come down to more of a series of rapid turning over events, that integrates a negative geopotential mean, more than a static feature. Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Fortunately for CNE we have the 2/26-27 event if the 2/24 one fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro is pretty ridiculous in the long range. After the 2/27 event it rotates another wave around the cutoff and a pretty good hit for 3/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Fortunately for CNE we have the 2/26-27 event if the 2/24 one fails. Do you? Read the other thread. Siding w Burbank and the euro on this one though. Not sure how 1.25 QPF = pedestrian but everyone is entitled to their opinions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 The 12z Euro was run from Ray's computer. I think the whole run would give him like 50" of snow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro is pretty ridiculous in the long range. After the 2/27 event it rotates another wave around the cutoff and a pretty good hit for 3/2 Isn't the GFS hinting at something along those lines the last couple runs as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Isn't the GFS hinting at something along those lines the last couple runs as well? Yes. That one has been on the ensembles for a while now, though the evolution of it has varied a bit. But there's definite potential lurking there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yes. That one has been on the ensembles for a while now, though the evolution of it has varied a bit. But there's definite potential lurking there. Yeah it's a needle-threader but not necessarily a bad setup. I'm not holding out too much hope for Sunday at this point just because I hate the look of the Euro... so... next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue Rain/snow line over Orange MA (KORE) during next 10-days. 3'' QPF w/temps 32-35°F. What a mess. pic.twitter.com/2gWlqmUVcz congrats GC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The EC ensembles are epic. However, not to be a Debbie, but if this becomes just a little more progressive..than it's a lot of cold and dry. We really need that block to go on roids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 ala gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 ala gfs I didn't even look at it..lol. But, the GFS op is worthless that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The EC ensembles are epic. However, not to be a Debbie, but if this becomes just a little more progressive..than it's a lot of cold and dry. We really need that block to go on roids. March sun does wonders. I'll take 38F and sun. No wind and in the sun will be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 March sun does wonders. I'll take 38F and sun. No wind and in the sun will be warm. Will you lay out on the snowpack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well even the GEFS have potential. About all you can say right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Good Lord what a major cold outbreak on the 12z Goofus..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 When the last day of this GFS cycle comes around, March 10, the clocks will leap ahead one hour - fitting perhaps that the strong interval of +PNA/-NAO will be fading by then, whatever damage it did, if any, in the history books, and the extended at that time could very well be spring like. Long days, warm times, seasonal change, most likely ... and likely, a zeitgeist containing elements of denial at that time. In the meantime, it seems the oper. runs of the GGEM/GFS/EURO are all trying to mute/dampen out specific events in lieu of just creating a giant negative geopotential node in the atmosphere that encompasses eastern N/A - the big counter-balancing mass field for the whopper +PNA/-NAO tandem signal that's been heavily discussed/advertised. Perhaps ... I suppose there is/was no guarantee that specific events would fall out of this interval of teleconnector spread, but it sure would be an epic waste of potential if nothing did. It may just be that there is coincidental wave interferences everywhere ...serving to cancel this or that out from deconstructive wave interference ...etc etc... and you are left with a big dopey stupid wasteful cold wave. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GEFS are finally coming aboard for better potential with better blocking and a trough a bit further west..also +PNA. John, definitely the risk..it doesn't take much to make this a tiny bit more progressive, but I like the look. Even the 12z GEFS look much better to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 You know what's interesting for me? It just occurred to me, all this wanting and agonizing, wishing, hoping, analyzing, and egging on these weather events that is the preoccupation of the forums(s), the forum mentality is in the minority in society. This is probably more at quite obvious when one disconnects their druthers from reality and looks at the big picture objectively. But, it is still interesting, perhaps even necessary, to occasional put matters into perspective. The mode of society would prefer quiescent times, all the time, with gentle deliveries in the hydro cycle for farming and other uptakes, that are balanced by usage. Sunny every day, rain only at night, but dry enough by every afternoon to never interfere with outdoor activities. Utopia. Can you imagine that abject horror? But wait: shouldn't the needs of the many, far out-weigh the needs of few, or the one? The utopia model certainly would suffice that logical precept. So why is the dystopian landscape of deep snow, coastal damage, power outages, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, so eagerly sought for by the forum(s)? It would appear the forum(s) must therefore be illogical in their pursuit of the dramatic. I do not think so, though. It is really a human instinct for discovery that is the origin of that inconsistency. Just as the early tribal nomadic explorers "wondered" out of Africa, it really is the same venture to wonder what could possibly happen because of what x, y, z storm system. It is really the same deeper, internal drive of wanting to learn about the nature of reality that is intrinsic in all people - some are perhaps merely more tuned into that internal drive. The "drama" we experience, either as individuals or collectively as a group, is nothing more than sating that internal lust for discovery. It is endemic to all of us, as humans. I like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 You know what's interesting for me? It just occurred to me, all this wanting and agonizing, wishing, hoping, analyzing, and egging on these weather events that is the preoccupation of the forums(s), the forum mentality is in the minority in society. This is probably more at quite obvious when one disconnects their druthers from reality and looks at the big picture objectively. But, it is still interesting, perhaps even necessary, to occasional put matters into perspective. The mode of society would prefer quiescent times, all the time, with gentle deliveries in the hydro cycle for farming and other uptakes, that are balanced by usage. Sunny every day, rain only at night, but dry enough by every afternoon to never interfere with outdoor activities. Utopia. Can you imagine that abject horror? But wait: shouldn't the needs of the many, far out-weigh the needs of few, or the one? The utopia model certainly would suffice that logical precept. So why is the dystopian landscape of deep snow, coastal damage, power outages, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, so eagerly sought for by the forum(s)? It would appear the forum(s) must therefore be illogical in their pursuit of the dramatic. I do not think so, though. It is really a human instinct for discovery that is the origin of that inconsistency. Just as the early tribal nomadic explorers "wondered" out of Africa, it really is the same venture to wonder what could possibly happen because of what x, y, z storm system. It is really the same deeper, internal drive of wanting to learn about the nature of reality that is intrinsic in all people - some are perhaps merely more tuned into that internal drive. The "drama" we experience, either as individuals or collectively as a group, is nothing more than sating that internal lust for discovery. It is endemic to all of us, as humans. I like that. TL;DNR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 1-2 feet snowstorm for NE on Day 7 Euro. 976mb stalls. Just a tad bit more separation between the two waves and we got an even bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro wants to break all kinds of records with this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Starting to resemble 1956. I am old enough to have seen and remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro wants to break all kinds of records with this thing I'm pretty curious as to what everyone is talking about with the day 5-8 area of this Euro run. Can't view it myself at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Starting to resemble 1956. I am old enough to have seen and remember that one. I was just a baby girl then, not even into whiskey or pills yet, but I remember all the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Starting to resemble 1956. I am old enough to have seen and remember that one. Starting to resemble 1956. I am old enough to have seen and remember that one. as a south shore Long Islander, i'll take March 1956 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Starting to resemble 1956. I am old enough to have seen and remember that one. Which one... There were actually two important events between the 15th and 20th of that month in '56. The late 16th through the 17th translated a deep bomb, down to 970mb, about 50 mi s of ACK. Then there was a lull. A day and half later... 18th -20th, a moderately intense cut-off meandered, a 998-1004mb type coastal low crawled NE across 2 and half days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Just an awesome pattern showing up on the ensembles. Even the AK ridge kicks in later with colder air moving into the CONUS. I hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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