CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 One trend I have noticed the past few runs is that the Euro esnembles have continued to cool Canada to our north in the long range...pretty large area of --12C to -14C air now to our northwest in Ontario and NW toward James Bay whereas before it will like -8C to -10C air. We have that -8C type air down over our region now. Prob direct respons to the western ridge....its on major 'roids now...like Jose Canseco 'roids and not just ARod 'roids...all the way up into AK ad into the arctic ocean. That actually re-establishes cross-polar flow at some point in early March. Way out there, but that would obviously prolong winter well beyond the ensembles cutoff time. And you know something will come when it breaks too. It looks awesome man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think we have our answer to the question posed in the thread title... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 What happened to winter ending on Feb 14th? Maybe they meant March 14th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 What happened to winter ending on Feb 14th? Maybe they meant March 14th Well some of us were severely questioning that in the first 3 or 4 pages of this thread...I thought some jumped on that wagon too quick. But its easy to say with hindsight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 What happened to winter ending on Feb 14th? Maybe they meant March 14th Or even April 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 What happened to winter ending on Feb 14th? Maybe they meant March 14th Fail. I think these monster storms have helped boost the -NAO, but there isn't a mechanism to destroy it so it's hanging around. I also think some of the tropical forcing is helping boost the PNA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 like Jose Canseco 'roids and not just ARod 'roids. dying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Well some of us were severely questioning that in the first 3 or 4 pages of this thread...I thought some jumped on that wagon too quick. But its easy to say with hindsight. Good call on not buying into it. Thankfully the GEFS were right all along. And hopefully they will be again for the next 10-15 days. This time though it sounds like there's a lot more consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Even if you didn't know a thing about the MJO or whatever.....it was clear about 3-4 weeks ago that models were not in sync. Euro ensembles cancelled winter with a wicked +EPO and se ridge ( something it has a bias for) while the GEFS and Canadian ensembles say not so fast. At that point you need to investigate what the heck is causing the differences. It was clear the euro ensembles wanted to blow up Indian ocean convection GEFS weren't as bullish. Euro ensembles are good, but not that good. We also had a cooperative stratosphere and the active srn stream allows for storms to blow up and help manufacture a -NAO...something we are seeing now. I believe HM mentioned this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 18z GFS ens and Canadians lying in the sack together, heavy heavy action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Even if you didn't know a thing about the MJO or whatever.....it was clear about 3-4 weeks ago that models were not in sync. Euro ensembles cancelled winter with a wicked +EPO and se ridge ( something it has a bias for) while the GEFS and Canadian ensembles say not so fast. At that point you need to investigate what the heck is causing the differences. It was clear the euro ensembles wanted to blow up Indian ocean convection GEFS weren't as bullish. Euro ensembles are good, but not that good. We also had a cooperative stratosphere and the active srn stream allows for storms to blow up and help manufacture a -NAO...something we are seeing now. I believe HM mentioned this. There was an awful lot of heat transported north into the higher latitudes of the west NAO region in the past 10 days which almost certainly is a significant variable that is not easy to predict. It probably matters more too when we don't have a dominating influence on the pattern like is the case right now. Sometimes one factor dominates so the other variables are just for fodder and are relatively insignificant. I have no idea exactly how much all these things matter, but I'm willing to bet that right now they are all significant without a dominating factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Even tonight's rain event overpreformed, wet beget wet. Stormy times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 There was an awful lot of heat transported north into the higher latitudes of the west NAO region in the past 10 days which almost certainly is a significant variable that is not easy to predict. It probably matters more too when we don't have a dominating influence on the pattern like is the case right now. Sometimes one factor dominates so the other variables are just for fodder and are relatively insignificant. I have no idea exactly how much all these things matter, but I'm willing to bet that right now they are all significant without a dominating factor. I have no idea how this +PNA popped lol. I feel like I was too wrapped up in the near term stuff with the blizzard and all....and then when I looked at the long range, I was like WTF where did this come from lol. I love when this stuff happens. It's humbling and is a nice reality check to us when we think we have it figured out. Sometimes I fall into that category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Sh it happens and it's good to be humbled keeps you grounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Even if you didn't know a thing about the MJO or whatever.....it was clear about 3-4 weeks ago that models were not in sync. Euro ensembles cancelled winter with a wicked +EPO and se ridge ( something it has a bias for) while the GEFS and Canadian ensembles say not so fast. At that point you need to investigate what the heck is causing the differences. It was clear the euro ensembles wanted to blow up Indian ocean convection GEFS weren't as bullish. Euro ensembles are good, but not that good. We also had a cooperative stratosphere and the active srn stream allows for storms to blow up and help manufacture a -NAO...something we are seeing now. I believe HM mentioned this. Oh I completely agree with much of this.. .In fact, I think even I made a lengthy post about how warm the end of February was looking back then - this mega +PNA/-NAO couplet has really born its self out in small increments by day, such that now we have a this mammoth +PNA hill in front of us with all this west based on-going blocking. Wow - right during the beginning of bowling season, mind us. It would be a terrific waste of potential if even middling were only realized. And no - that's not capitulating to emotions in being able to cerebralize an exciting pattern - nice try! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Oh I completely agree with much of this.. .In fact, I think even I made a lengthy post about how warm the end of February was looking back then - this mega +PNA/-NAO couplet has really born its self out in small increments by day, such that now we have a this mammoth +PNA hill in front of us with all this west based on-going blocking. Wow - right during the beginning of bowling season, mind us. It would be a terrific waste of potential if even middling were only realized. And no - that's not capitulating to emotions in being able to cerebralize an exciting pattern - nice try! LOL, j/k with that stuff. But yeah, fascinating times ahead. It easily could not be a great snow producer, but any met who looks at that definitely gets ridging in a certain area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 LOL, j/k with that stuff. But yeah, fascinating times ahead. It easily could not be a great snow producer, but any met who looks at that definitely gets ridging in a certain area. Yeah, right along their continental divide - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Check out that mega block/+PNA pattern on the euro..This is why coastalwx and Will are starting to get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 texbook +PNA, -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That mid week storm looks rainier and rainier every run..That is going to be ugly after our crushjob this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I might jackpot on the rainy qpf, ironically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 The midweek storm trended colder actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The midweek storm trended colder actually. Yeah I don't get the automatic default to rain this far out in this pattern. But to be fair, we are going weekend snow and midweek raiders the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Good times ahead for central and nne...........good luck and enjoy guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The midweek storm trended colder actually. Way to early to even speculate on outcome honestly. With the developing pattern, i like the signal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That mid week storm looks rainier and rainier every run..That is going to be ugly after our crushjob this weekend huh looks colder to me, you have a mindset this is a stinker, NAO baby, this is going to get colder and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 blizz. should be typing tickle tickle wrt the wed storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 blizz. should be typing tickle tickle wrt the wed storm. Reverse psychology at play. That is the newest initialization method of the KURO suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 100hr snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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