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Mid to late February Pattern Discussion...stormy or end of winter?


ORH_wxman

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Euro is close to a Dec 1992 at D10...wow. Also eerily close to my favorite storm in mid-March 2010 that was 1C too warm to be another '92, lol.

 

At any rate, the blocking is going to cause some crazy solutions on the models over the next week I'd imagine. Should be fun to follow.

 

If that lakes low at 186 was further east underneath the block (like the GFS) we would have seen a much colder solution

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The ensembles basically lift the trough out that brings rain or snow next week and then a new lobe rotates in and ignites a big storm day 10. All the while ridging sets up out west and to our northeast. This is what we mean by allowing the pieces to fall in place for a tippy teleconnector event.

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The ensembles basically lift the trough out that brings rain or snow next week and then a new lobe rotates in and ignites a big storm day 10. All the while ridging sets up out west and to our northeast. This is what we mean by allowing the pieces to fall in place for a tippy teleconnector event.

How are they for weekend snowstorm?
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We need that ULL over the Lakes @ 168 hrs to be farther east for more cold air & confluence. That way the storm that hooks up onto it is farther east as well. 

 

That storm might be a far interior or NNE event...not everything can be white...but a little further south and it smokes interior SNE. Certainly way too early to have a lot of confidence in either solution.

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Next weeks storm at the end of the run is fully nude for the east coast on the ensembles

 

 

It looks a tad deceptive on the height field to me. Definitely potential but the mean slp is definitely a mix of slower departing 27th events and the Feb 28-Mar 1 event...considering how far SE the 0C line is too.  

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That storm might be a far interior or NNE event...not everything can be white...but a little further south and it smokes interior SNE. Certainly way too early to have a lot of confidence in either solution.

 

Coastal. I'm not talking about the storm that is associated with that ULL...I'm talking about the storm that pinwheels with that ULL @ day 8-10. If the ULL is farther east the pinwheel goes on farther east. Meh I suck at explaining myself. 

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Coastal. I'm not talking about the storm that is associated with that ULL...I'm talking about the storm that pinwheels with that ULL @ day 8-10. If the ULL is farther east the pinwheel goes on farther east. Meh I suck at explaining myself. 

 

Oh ok, sorry. I still like the day 10 (give or take a day) setup. Liking a setup does not equate to it coming to fruition...but just the overall look. I'm sure another chance will come when this +PNA breaks down too.

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I wish the Canadian ensembles were as accurate as the euro ensembles.

 

 

I just saw them....man, I wish so too. They blast us with every storm between now and March 5th...they all look like snow hits. Even the precarious Feb 26-27 event.

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I know lol. What a horrible prank to pull on us.

 

 

One trend I have noticed the past few runs is that the Euro esnembles have continued to cool Canada to our north in the long range...pretty large area of --12C to -14C air now to our northwest in Ontario and NW toward James Bay whereas before it will like -8C to -10C air. We have that -8C type air down over our region now. Prob direct respons to the western ridge....its on major 'roids now...like Jose Canseco 'roids and not just ARod 'roids...all the way up into AK ad into the arctic ocean. That actually re-establishes cross-polar flow at some point in early March.

 

Way out there, but that would obviously prolong winter well beyond the ensembles cutoff time.

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