CooL Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Euro is close to a Dec 1992 at D10...wow. Also eerily close to my favorite storm in mid-March 2010 that was 1C too warm to be another '92, lol. At any rate, the blocking is going to cause some crazy solutions on the models over the next week I'd imagine. Should be fun to follow. If that lakes low at 186 was further east underneath the block (like the GFS) we would have seen a much colder solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Hat tip Will... Dec 92: 240h 12z EC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Hat tip Will... Dec 92: 121115.png 240h 12z EC: 12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif 12zeurotropical500mbSLP240.gif I like this better. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0315.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I like this better. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0315.php That would be beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I like this better. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0315.php that was a Will meltdown...literally and figuratively. iirc, he was even going to quit moderating the board after that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 that was a Will meltdown...literally and figuratively. iirc, he was even going to quit moderating the board after that event. lol, but who doesn't love 4-5" of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 that was a Will meltdown...literally and figuratively. iirc, he was even going to quit moderating the board after that event. That was classic, but I did like that event....lol. Best flooding I've seen locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 lol, but who doesn't love 4-5" of rain? More like 10" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 More like 10" here. Yeah, despite how much it sucked for it not to be snow, it was an impressive event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The ensembles basically lift the trough out that brings rain or snow next week and then a new lobe rotates in and ignites a big storm day 10. All the while ridging sets up out west and to our northeast. This is what we mean by allowing the pieces to fall in place for a tippy teleconnector event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I like this better. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0315.php http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/pnsevents/Mar_13-15_2010/Mar_13-15_2010_BOXPNS.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The ensembles basically lift the trough out that brings rain or snow next week and then a new lobe rotates in and ignites a big storm day 10. All the while ridging sets up out west and to our northeast. This is what we mean by allowing the pieces to fall in place for a tippy teleconnector event.How are they for weekend snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 How are they for weekend snowstorm? They look decent...similar to OP...perhaps a tad more bullish with the shortwave heights. Can't see qpf right now. The sfc lines are pretty close to OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/pnsevents/Mar_13-15_2010/Mar_13-15_2010_BOXPNS.txt Woburn with 10.33". No need to repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 We need that ULL over the Lakes @ 168 hrs to be farther east for more cold air & confluence. That way the storm that hooks up onto it is farther east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 We need that ULL over the Lakes @ 168 hrs to be farther east for more cold air & confluence. That way the storm that hooks up onto it is farther east as well. That storm might be a far interior or NNE event...not everything can be white...but a little further south and it smokes interior SNE. Certainly way too early to have a lot of confidence in either solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Nudity into March on the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Nudity into March on the euro ensembles. Next weeks storm at the end of the run is fully nude for the east coast on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Next weeks storm at the end of the run is fully nude for the east coast on the ensembles It looks a tad deceptive on the height field to me. Definitely potential but the mean slp is definitely a mix of slower departing 27th events and the Feb 28-Mar 1 event...considering how far SE the 0C line is too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That storm might be a far interior or NNE event...not everything can be white...but a little further south and it smokes interior SNE. Certainly way too early to have a lot of confidence in either solution. Coastal. I'm not talking about the storm that is associated with that ULL...I'm talking about the storm that pinwheels with that ULL @ day 8-10. If the ULL is farther east the pinwheel goes on farther east. Meh I suck at explaining myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Still a chance Fella gets his record snowfall in Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Coastal. I'm not talking about the storm that is associated with that ULL...I'm talking about the storm that pinwheels with that ULL @ day 8-10. If the ULL is farther east the pinwheel goes on farther east. Meh I suck at explaining myself. Oh ok, sorry. I still like the day 10 (give or take a day) setup. Liking a setup does not equate to it coming to fruition...but just the overall look. I'm sure another chance will come when this +PNA breaks down too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Still a chance Fella gets his record snowfall in Feb? I think it resides on this weekend. That will be tough to do, but we can always hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I wish the Canadian ensembles were as accurate as the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Unga fuggin bunga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 You shouldn't get too emotionally invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Unga fuggin bunga.....perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 I wish the Canadian ensembles were as accurate as the euro ensembles. I just saw them....man, I wish so too. They blast us with every storm between now and March 5th...they all look like snow hits. Even the precarious Feb 26-27 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I just saw them....man, I wish so too. They blast us with every storm between now and March 5th...they all look like snow hits. Even the precarious Feb 26-27 event. I know lol. What a horrible prank to pull on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 I know lol. What a horrible prank to pull on us. One trend I have noticed the past few runs is that the Euro esnembles have continued to cool Canada to our north in the long range...pretty large area of --12C to -14C air now to our northwest in Ontario and NW toward James Bay whereas before it will like -8C to -10C air. We have that -8C type air down over our region now. Prob direct respons to the western ridge....its on major 'roids now...like Jose Canseco 'roids and not just ARod 'roids...all the way up into AK ad into the arctic ocean. That actually re-establishes cross-polar flow at some point in early March. Way out there, but that would obviously prolong winter well beyond the ensembles cutoff time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.