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Mid to late February Pattern Discussion...stormy or end of winter?


ORH_wxman

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I don't think he did much at all last year... getting into a groove I hope

 

 

Last year was just awful almost every time looking at the LR progs. There was a brief time last year when Feb 10th plus or minus 5 days looked solid, but the AK block shifted west very quickly and the vortex of death came back so fast. Jan had a non-emabrrassing period too, but nothing ever looked like what guidance has shown since mid January this winter.

 

Last year's Feb 29-Mar 1 storm was signaled a solid week out...about the only thing that "worked" out...at least for us. BOS got shafted in that one too (like every event last year).

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What a weenie pattern on the weeklies. -NAO and low heights over the east coast.

 

 

That was really weenie-ish right through St. Patty's day. Week 2 was flat out awesome...which makes sense since the LR on the ensembles looked great too. Fingers crossed that it delivers...never any guarantees...but we'll be ecstatic to roll the dice in that setup.

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That was really weenie-ish right through St. Patty's day. Week 2 was flat out awesome...which makes sense since the LR on the ensembles looked great too. Fingers crossed that it delivers...never any guarantees...but we'll be ecstatic to roll the dice in that setup.

I probably shouldn't be picky, but I'd like a bit more cold....but I'm hoping it's just cold enough. Looked like it cooled off heading into March ironically. That shouldn't take away from the H5 look.....I'm salivating looking at the guidance.

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I probably shouldn't be picky, but I'd like a bit more cold....but I'm hoping it's just cold enough. Looked like it cooled off heading into March ironically. That shouldn't take away from the H5 look.....I'm salivating looking at the guidance.

 

We get a bit of a refreser on the cold when the PNA ridge spikes it looks like...its not cross polar arctic cold. But its not March 2010 stale rotted-out recycled marine puke either.

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We get a bit of a refreser on the cold when the PNA ridge spikes it looks like...its not cross polar arctic cold. But its not March 2010 stale rotted-out recycled marine puke either.

It looked like just mid level temps that were causing the relatively higher thicknesses. High pressure should keep enough cold and lower dews at the surface. But I don't want to get carried away. One step at a time beginning with Saturday.

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It looked like just mid level temps that were causing the relatively higher thicknesses. High pressure should keep enough cold and lower dews at the surface. But I don't want to get carried away. One step at a time beginning with Saturday.

 

 

38.9" is the March record for BOS in 1993...you can go ahead and throw caution to the wind.

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1992-93 evolution combined with 1968-69. Even taking away the 12/10/92 event for BOS it's a great snow winter. It was the first year my wife and I lived together and I walked in on her talking to hr friend and all I heard was something like "I knew he liked snow but I was unprepared for this..." Lol...still together and happy. It a funny moment.

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1992-93 evolution combined with 1968-69. Even taking away the 12/10/92 event for BOS it's a great snow winter. It was the first year my wife and I lived together and I walked in on her talking to hr friend and all I heard was something like "I knew he liked snow but I was unprepared for this..." Lol...still together and happy. It a funny moment.

 

 

If you take away both the 1993 Superstorm and Dec 1992 storm from BOS, they still had over 60" of snow that winter.

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Now that we've had the snow the prior cold only adds to the winter.  It's almost 2/20 and I've got a solid snowpack on the coast.  That hasn't happened in many years.

 

Whatever the rest of winter brings at least we staretd to get near normal.

 

BTW good article

 

 

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SCI_SNOW_GLOBAL_WARMING?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-02-18-11-33-15

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This pattern looks almost nothing like Mar 1993 ironically even though it looks good. Mar 1993 had a huge +NAO/+AO...but it had a really stout western ridge. It looks more like 1958, though 1958 didn't have a good western ridge (though our initial pattern over the next week or 10 days doesn't have a big western ridge either). Mar 1960 is a decent match.

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38.9" is the March record for BOS in 1993...you can go ahead and throw caution to the wind.

 

Can't tell if you're being sarcastic lol... really that confident this far out?

 

I posted in the other thread, was too superstitious to say it but Jerry went ahead... Feb 1969 is clearly in reach for Boston

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Can't tell if you're being sarcastic lol... really that confident this far out?

 

I posted in the other thread, was too superstitious to say it but Jerry went ahead... Feb 1969 is clearly in reach for Boston

 

 

No, it was sarcasm, lol...that was such an anomalous month. Mar 1st is still 12 days out...nevermind further into the month. But signs are definitely good right now for March to come in like a lion...no Morch.

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