moneypitmike Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I don't like this weekend up here, I smell suppression Yeah--i'm reading 'fringed again'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yeah--i'm reading 'fringed again'. Way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 18z GFS is going to be a huge hit for most of SNE...talking Feb 23-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 18z GFS is going to be a huge hit for most of SNE...talking Feb 23-24. Yeah that would be a great hit for you guys down that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Lol 12-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The GFS can stop right there...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I would take that in a minute... but, it is purely fantasy at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Fyi, I started a thread to split out the 24th threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 GFS tracks the next one on Feb 26-27th similar to the 24th...a shade north. What an epic week that would be. Certainly showing the potential...but exact solutions are just for entertainment at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Jerry is not here but I will approve for him. There is his snowiest month for BOS right there !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Something to watch in any case, and something to keep my fingers crossed for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yeah I was thinking the exact same thing...Euro gets cutter-happy in the long range and it still got shoved underneath that block. Adjust even just a hair for that bias, and it would be a pretty sweet setup. What is better for New England? A block on Southern Greenland? A Davis Strait to Hudson Bay block? Couldn't the latter get too suppressive or is the position of the 50-50 more critical in suppression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 What is better for New England? A block on Southern Greenland? A Davis Strait to Hudson Bay block? Couldn't the latter get too suppressive or is the position of the 50-50 more critical in suppression? A lot depends on the time of year and what the PAC is doing...an east based block is usually pretty good if we have an amped up PNA ridge...if we dont, then we often like a west based block like we saw in late Dec 2010 and early Jan 2011 while the PNA was negative. Up into northern Maine, you don't want any strong NAO blocking unless it is east based...for the rest of NNE, its difficult to just paint it broadly. You want a -NAO in NNE, but so much depends on what the PAC is doing to determine how strong and where you want the -NAO to be. Usually uber strong west based -NAOs are no good for NNE. They can hurt SNE too if they are too far SW or strong like we saw in 2009-2010...but def less chance of being skunked on it than NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Jerry is not here but I will approve for him. There is his snowiest month for BOS right there !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I like how next week potentially sets up for something bigger near the beginning of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 I like how next week potentially sets up for something bigger near the beginning of March. It really reinforces the west-based block...it turns it into a more classic Atlantic based Davis straight block versus the Hudson Bay rex block from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It really reinforces the west-based block...it turns it into a more classic Atlantic based Davis straight block versus the Hudson Bay rex block from the south. And potentially we have a ridge bridge from the +PNA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 A lot depends on the time of year and what the PAC is doing...an east based block is usually pretty good if we have an amped up PNA ridge...if we dont, then we often like a west based block like we saw in late Dec 2010 and early Jan 2011 while the PNA was negative. Up into northern Maine, you don't want any strong NAO blocking unless it is east based...for the rest of NNE, its difficult to just paint it broadly. You want a -NAO in NNE, but so much depends on what the PAC is doing to determine how strong and where you want the -NAO to be. Usually uber strong west based -NAOs are no good for NNE. They can hurt SNE too if they are too far SW or strong like we saw in 2009-2010...but def less chance of being skunked on it than NNE. Thank you. I have a fear of strong west based -NAOs after 5 years of living up here. We are so often on the edge with the coastal systems, although sometimes we score big (Jan 2011 for ex). I have become a big fan of SWFEs. But I think a late season block is less likely to be suppressive than a Dec, Jan, early Feb block. At least I hope so. I'm in London and India until Feb 28 and I think that period of early March looks very good. A strong block like that won't go away quickly and when it finally releases it could be accompanied by a big snowstorm and then spring. I vote for that somewhere in Mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Thank you. I have a fear of strong west based -NAOs after 5 years of living up here. We are so often on the edge with the coastal systems, although sometimes we score big (Jan 2011 for ex). I have become a big fan of SWFEs. But I think a late season block is less likely to be suppressive than a Dec, Jan, early Feb block. At least I hope so. I'm in London and India until Feb 28 and I think that period of early March looks very good. A strong block like that won't go away quickly and when it finally releases it could be accompanied by a big snowstorm and then spring. I vote for that somewhere in Mid March. Swfes can easily become torchy cutters without some NAO help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wonder if I can pull off two Februarys in a row with 0.0" If we escape tomorrow, I think we may have a chance. Now don't you wish you deleted this? I came across this page accidentally again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 This is the GEFS setup for the 2/28-3/1 threat...look at the great Atlantic pattern and the building western ridge. The EC ensembles actually look better than this even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Why are the mods all logged in as anonymous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wonder if I can pull off two Februarys in a row with 0.0" If we escape tomorrow, I think we may have a chance. Now don't you wish you deleted this? I came across this page accidentally again... Still thinking the 9th is our big legitimate shot. You the king! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I would bet against a wound up system in this pattern. Wish I deleted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 C'mon Steve. Euro had 1 run up our fannies, now off the coast, GEFS no way close to this kind of bomb. Not going to happen IMHO. I suck at 5 day forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 This is the GEFS setup for the 2/28-3/1 threat...look at the great Atlantic pattern and the building western ridge. The EC ensembles actually look better than this even. Euro ensembles for comparison....this is a bit before the GEFS verification time, but I can't post the 264h EC ensembles from the pay site...however, you can clearly see how favorable the EC ensmebles look even at 240 with a very defined low anomaly moving toward the east due to the juicey southern stream with a big block in place and a building western ridge to keep the amplitude of the whole wave high Given the time frame we're talking here, obviously nothing can be said for details and a big storm is not guaranteed, nor is snow even if we do get a big storm, but this is exactly what you like to see right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Been off the grid for a while with work... Just reviewing the model signals today... we've gone from futility to Jerry's favorite February that will not be named in our distant sights... Can't wait to see what 0z Euro does D10 tonight, let alone for the 23-24th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 And last, but not least....roll forward another 3 days and this is what we have: Notice the "ridge-bridge" now between the NAO block and the +PNA...stuffing all the low heights to the southeast. This would be a pretty prime pattern for a cold cutoff somewhere near the EC...but speculation at this point. Euro ensembles are slightly different in the magnitude but the general idea is the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 5 day snowstorm coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Thank you. I have a fear of strong west based -NAOs after 5 years of living up here. We are so often on the edge with the coastal systems, although sometimes we score big (Jan 2011 for ex). I have become a big fan of SWFEs. But I think a late season block is less likely to be suppressive than a Dec, Jan, early Feb block. At least I hope so. I'm in London and India until Feb 28 and I think that period of early March looks very good. A strong block like that won't go away quickly and when it finally releases it could be accompanied by a big snowstorm and then spring. I vote for that somewhere in Mid March. Be afraid, Be very afraid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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