OceanStWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Yeah sign me up anytime for that lol. Funny how a wiggle here and there means so much as far as snowfall in SNE. I guess that's why we say a pattern looks favorable, but that word does not mean S+. There is definitely that perception that "favorable pattern" means "train of KUs." All it takes is one storm, one dumb luck phasing of shortwaves, to have a memorable month. All you can ask for is the longwave pattern to support it moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Good stuff guys. Thanks for all the responses.Some numbers to go along with the height anomalies shown above...Historical NAO indexes:1957 10 1.951957 11 0.631957 12 0.021958 1 -1.141958 2 -1.641958 3 -2.461968 10 -1.991968 11 -1.111968 12 -1.391969 1 -1.481969 2 -2.201969 3 -2.04The switch in 1957-1958 is consistent.It's interesting that Oct 68-Jan 69 was historically bad (at least for KBOS). Looks like a decent western-based negative NAO for Jan 1969 on the map posted above. Clearly the negative NAO was not sufficient (and I'm not expecting that it should be).Some historial AO indexes:1957 10 0.9031957 11 -1.3801957 12 0.8281958 1 -1.4381958 2 -2.2281958 3 -2.5221968 10 -1.0131968 11 -2.1831968 12 -0.7831969 1 -2.9671969 2 -3.1141969 3 -1.582Again, interesting that Oct 68 - Jan 69 was such a historic ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The euro ensembles are so stubborn. It is a little concerning that they continue to look kind if ugly we'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I am still liking the 9th for a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Starting to wonder if we see a comeback after this ugly period near the 10-12. All models now even the euro (I just got a better look after I woke up) rebuild the ridge near AK. Not too far off from the GEFS although not as bullish Also,on ROundy's site, it shows OLR anomalies remaining thanks to a Kelvin wave replacing the MJO wave.....just means the area near the CPAC may continue active. Notice the IO eventuallyhas suppression until early March. So, we may be looking at more action post 2/15. I hate to make this disclaimer...but this isn't a forecast, but rather thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I would go for even a few juicy, messy SWFEs right now that give me 3-5" of snow and some glop on top as long as we can keep the sfc low south of us. A few inches and then torch is no fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The models are also showing srn stream action for the first time all year after the 12th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The models are also showing srn stream action for the first time all year after the 12th or so. yeah that's been pegged in the long-range for a while now. i'm just going to sink or swim with boston getting to climo. don't know why...but staying with it. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 yeah that's been pegged in the long-range for a while now. i'm just going to sink or swim with boston getting to climo. don't know why...but staying with it. lol. Boy would that be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Long term does look promising with the possibility of southern stream involvement. Not too excited about the prospect over the next 7-10 days. 9th-10th looks like a weak clipper type system over NNE to me, followed by a messy system 11th-12th. After that is when things could break for us as we get some nice ridging out west and the involvement of the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The models are also showing srn stream action for the first time all year after the 12th or so. Lost in all the commotion was your comment awhile back about the action waiting until after the 10th. By commotion I mean these flizzards we keep tracking. I think we endure maybe one more rainstorm before things get better as a region. Could see the "better" still yielding precip type issues in the CP though. Long term does look promising with the possibility of southern stream involvement. Not too excited about the prospect over the next 7-10 days. 9th-10th looks like a weak clipper type system over NNE to me, followed by a messy system 11th-12th. After that is when things could break for us as we get some nice ridging out west and the involvement of the southern stream. After maybe the 11th we finally dump the NW to SE pattern in favor of traditional coastals. Depending on the strength of the cold air they could range from misses to messes. The GFS cold bias is probably in play here, and that's why I'm not as optimistic as some might be looking at the OP GFS. Potential cold bias in play, tracks adjust left and it's less interesting for some of us. Hopefully in the end it delivers snow where it's needed for winter sport longevity and the huge $ vacation weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I'm not so sure the gfs still has a cold bias or a progressive bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Euro ensembles in the long range deifnitely got a bit better again with the ridge into NW Canada/AK. We'll see how it looks as we get closer. I am in the camp that winter isn't over mid-month....at least right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Cmc says we have a fairly snowy week ahead. That's messengers Molson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Perhaps someone has the stats that prove otherwise but I feel like that GFS stuff has been fixed in recent years - or minimally shows itself in certain patterns only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I'd watch that Tuesday system. That one has potential to deliver as the clipper goes south of li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Perhaps someone has the stats that prove otherwise but I feel like that GFS stuff has been fixed in recent years - or minimally shows itself in certain patterns only Yeah its definitely not the GFS of 3 years ago, that is for sure. Its cold bias has been mostly fixed from both verification stats and also just anecdotal evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Euro ensembles in the long range deifnitely got a bit better again with the ridge into NW Canada/AK. We'll see how it looks as we get closer. I am in the camp that winter isn't over mid-month....at least right now. same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 gfs and it's ensembles want nothing to do with a warm-up really. brief cutter but otherwise...no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Starting to wonder if we see a comeback after this ugly period near the 10-12. All models now even the euro (I just got a better look after I woke up) rebuild the ridge near AK. Not too far off from the GEFS although not as bullish 00zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif Also,on ROundy's site, it shows OLR anomalies remaining thanks to a Kelvin wave replacing the MJO wave.....just means the area near the CPAC may continue active. Notice the IO eventuallyhas suppression until early March. So, we may be looking at more action post 2/15. I hate to make this disclaimer...but this isn't a forecast, but rather thoughts. 2013.png BTW, starting to wonder means entertaining the idea of a possible comeback, it wasn't meant to be skepticle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Hmm wonder how much sleep Kevs Energy mets get this week. Shorts sales incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Hmm wonder how much sleep Kevs Energy mets get this week. Shorts sales incoming. Well they only care about HDDs in which perhaps it won't be that cold. I could care less and so do most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 gfs and it's ensembles want nothing to do with a warm-up really. brief cutter but otherwise...no. I'm surprised at how cold they are in the LR....they got even colder than previous runs. They are trying to go full blown -EPO/+PNA out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Well they only care about HDDs in which perhaps it won't be that cold. I could care less and so do most. Huge difference than what they predicted, big difference in HDDS between ending winter and normal to below, millions of cu ft of gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Pretty close to a nice snow event on Friday per euro with the draping hp to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Pretty close to a nice snow event on Friday per euro with the draping hp to the north. Hopefully the seasonal trend of going se will work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Hopefully the seasonal trend of going se will work. Euro a cold run overall today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Euro a cold run overall today. I like the 9th system, hope it congeals the way I imagine. Torch on my birthday cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Wow...euro is sweet up here on the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Steve, be too drunk on your bday night to notice the wx per euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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