weathafella Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It's the op model bit d10 screams brewing major HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro has another juicey southern stream storm brewing at D10...that run shows just how active the pattern is and the huge potential going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Out in clown range, but its amazing how that big plains storm at D9 runs into that block in E Canada and gets forced under SNE. Paste snow to perhaps a period of ice in itnerior (rain coast). That's a high stakes storm...could be really good or could be wet. Check out the weenie extended trough under the Hudson bay block that helps keep the flow from buckling. Considering how the day 9 euro op loves to be amped up..not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 It's the op model bit d10 screams brewing major HECS. Ensembles were hitting that Mar 1st-2nd period too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Oh well I'll take my chances with that. Snow to ice for me and snow to rain for others LOL, don't worry about ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Ensembles were hitting that Mar 1st-2nd period too. Check out the GEFS mean MSLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Check out the weenie extended trough under the Hudson bay block that helps keep the flow from buckling. Considering how the day 9 euro op loves to be amped up..not a bad look. Yeah I was thinking the exact same thing...Euro gets cutter-happy in the long range and it still got shoved underneath that block. Adjust even just a hair for that bias, and it would be a pretty sweet setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 GEFS look very interesting in the LR. 12z caved more toward the Euro ensembles in the colder look..esp for our region. Look at that nice western ridge pop with the very stout positive anomalies in the west NAO region And I have no problem with rolling a big event through the nadir of that trough over the east, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Is there a SECS "Super East Coast Storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Is there a SECS "Super East Coast Storm" I think DT trademarked that as significant east cast storm hence MECS, HECS, and BECS to denote larger events...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The storm later next week also may be one Of those deals that perhaps cut west, but set us up for something big down the road as it establishes confidence and NAO ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The storm later next week also may be one Of those deals that perhaps cut west, but set us up for something big down the road as it establishes confidence and NAO ridging. So the pattern has self-esteem issues?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 So the pattern has self-esteem issues?? Stupid phone. Establishes confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 But man that is a strong signal for good times. Let's hope it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 But man that is a strong signal for good times. Let's hope it happens. March is determined to show Kevin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro ensembles bullish on the weekend and then again around Mar 1-2. More of a risk in the Feb 27 signal...but certainly could end up snowier as well. Better signal for interior on that one as of now, but obviously a lot of time to figure out details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro ensembles have between a half inch and an inch of liquid for the Feb 23-24 weekend potential...so certainly more bullish than the OP in that sense. Still too early to obsess over QPF but thought I would throw it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro ensembles have between a half inch and an inch of liquid for the Feb 23-24 weekend potential...so certainly more bullish than the OP in that sense. Still too early to obsess over QPF but thought I would throw it out there. I like the potential this weekend to halve what BOS needs for the record and then hopefully we get enough at least on the front end prior to 3/1 to seal the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 I like the potential this weekend to halve what BOS needs for the record and then hopefully we get enough at least on the front end prior to 3/1 to seal the deal. Yeah I think they'll need a good hit this weekend to get the record...I'm not that high on Feb 27 as of now for the coast, but that could def change. And of course, the Mar 1-2 threat is after the calendar turns so we can't use that one to get the Feb record (or monthly record) for BOS. Models will prob struggle a bit with this block. They often underdo how tough the cold air hangs in ad try to drive WAA too aggressively into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I don't like this weekend up here, I smell suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I like the potential this weekend to halve what BOS needs for the record and then hopefully we get enough at least on the front end prior to 3/1 to seal the deal. Yep, BOS' getting 11.4 inches later Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 I don't like this weekend up here, I smell suppression It could still come far enough north to get S ME...though even if it doesn't, Feb 27th looks like a stronger threat for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It could still come far enough north to get S ME...though even if it doesn't, Feb 27th looks like a stronger threat for your area. Well that's out in clown range at this point, Maybe i will score tomorrow night some, If the low develops slightly further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Well that's out in clown range at this point, Maybe i will score tomorrow night some, If the low develops slightly further south Yes...though synoptically on a larger scale, it looks better than the Feb 23-24 threat for NNE. The trough has a little bit less resistance from the block which gets weakened some...then that 27th system tries to rebuild the block a bit as it passes. So there's a window there. Obviously being in clown it can change, but from the synoptic standpoint as good as we can tell at this range, that one would look better right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yes...though synoptically on a larger scale, it looks better than the Feb 23-24 threat for NNE. The trough has a little bit less resistance from the block which gets weakened some...then that 27th system tries to rebuild the block a bit as it passes. So there's a window there. Obviously being in clown it can change, but from the synoptic standpoint as good as we can tell at this range, that one would look better right now. That's true, It also looks like it would have room to go west as well, But like we said, Its out there and won't get invested until the weekend at the earliest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Looking further out in time...early March (post 3/3 or so) really looks awesome on the Euro ensembles. Its really hitting building a big western ridge pretty far poleward into the arctic. Probably some response to the tropical situation in the Pacifc....and still a big weakness in the height anomalies in the the southern Davis straight and NE Canada region. No signs of Morch as far they can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I wonder if some folks can tickle 100 inches this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 I wonder if some folks can tickle 100 inches this winter? This is certainly one of the patterns you want to see if we want to make a big late season run. Its not going to be easy...I'd prefer to see some slightly colder air around to give us a bit larger margin for error, but what we have is plenty adequate as long as we keep that block pushing systems south of SNE as they exit the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 This is certainly one of the patterns you want to see if we want to make a big late season run. Its not going to be easy...I'd prefer to see some slightly colder air around to give us a bit larger margin for error, but what we have is plenty adequate as long as we keep that block pushing systems south of SNE as they exit the east coast.Could end up being a special season for those folks that are 65-75 inches YTD. A month ago normal seemed good. Now we're encroaching on special if things can work out for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Are we thinking just an hour or 2 of temps near 40 tomorrow right aged of the front? So no real damage at all to pack? And then we lock inupper 20's - low 30's rest of week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.