Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Where's noreaster27? We haven't even had Nor'easter # 2 - gee wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Where's noreaster27? Banned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Run the GFS snow total for the next 15 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Well the American side -derived PNA from 00z is still really showing a big positive bolt heading into the first week of March ... which when coupled with the impressive sag in the NAO, pretty much crushes and shatters my dream for an early spring before my very eyes... Ah well, what can you do. The 00z ECMWF ensmebles now add to that fear by showing a correction toward positive heading toward first of the month; this is an upward correction over the previous nights computation for those ending phase states ... by perhaps .5 of an SD, which is pretty substantial for one night. The GFS operational is going nuts with this, showing a 4SD rise over 10 days!! zomb. With an NAO so sagged... something bigger may take place in there that is rather large - or perhaps just a series of systems. But I don't buy GGEM notions of lifting the 850mb 0C isotherm that far polarward given the index complexion - those types of runs are not very well correlated. ...stranger things have happened... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Good signal for tippy teleconnector storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 We haven't even had Nor'easter # 2 - gee wiz John, you're childlike in your naïveté. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 John, you're childlike in your naïveté. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 John, you're childlike in your naïveté.You set the Feb record this weekend? My gentlemen have not acknowledged their butt whipping in our bets. Patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Good signal for tippy teleconnector storm. Look at this operational GFS PNA ... good lord! That's like 7SD pts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 You set the Feb record this weekend? My gentlemen have not acknowledged their butt whipping in our bets. Patience I'm shooting now for 60+at BOS. Not impossible. We were under 10 entering February.....BOS is 40.8 and counting 18 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I'm shooting now for 60+at BOS. Not impossible. We were under 10 entering February.....BOS is 40.8 and counting 18 days later. Things are lining up for something special. We got a solid 30 or so days to pad the totals. I can't believe I'm at 52" YTD. I felt like I was stuck at 15-17" forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 BOS needs 9.7" to set the Feb record...it won't be easy despite a great pattern. Still need to get a sizable storm unless they pull it off in two moderate events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Here comes the Euro at 12z a lot more amped up with the 2/23-24 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Here comes the Euro at 12z a lot more amped up with the 2/23-24 storm. Yeah was just about to comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Its letting that energy behind the initial shredded piece catch up and reignite the storm. Verbatim a minor to low end advisory event, but def a lot better than before. Close to being a much larger event. ML temps aren't overly cold so we'll have to watch for that, esp in southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro caving to gfs. Sorry Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro caving to gfs. Sorry Kevin. GFS also showed the potential snow this past weekend, but the problem was that it was too aggressive when we got closer, while the euro snuck in and got the forecast right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 GFS also showed the potential snow this past weekend, but the problem was that it was too aggressive when we got closer, while the euro snuck in and got the forecast right. Yeah we'll have to see how it looks once we are inside 84 hours. That's where the Euro is really tough to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Good for srn plains and se drought too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 GEFS look very interesting in the LR. 12z caved more toward the Euro ensembles in the colder look..esp for our region. Look at that nice western ridge pop with the very stout positive anomalies in the west NAO region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Its letting that energy behind the initial shredded piece catch up and reignite the storm. Verbatim a minor to low end advisory event, but def a lot better than before. Close to being a much larger event. ML temps aren't overly cold so we'll have to watch for that, esp in southern areas. tolland pingers bring smiles across the board when i get back from jackson nh on wed nite/thur am ....i'll be within 84 hrs of this event. crossing fingers. i told grandfather this may likely be our last powder storm of the year although you never know, but i would think it is somewhat rare on the cp past 2/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 We're in our way of rocking to 1968-69 totals and perhaps beyond. Very similar winter ironically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 We're in our way of rocking to 1968-69 totals and perhaps beyond. Very similar winter ironically. Dec 1968 was quite cold, so in that sense it was not the same, but the weather from mid January onward has been pretty clsoe aorund here, and the snowfall even back earlier into Dec wasn't far off. Interior did okay in Dec '68 while the CP stunk and everyone really bit the big one for snowfall in Jan '69 despite some nice blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I thought this was an elevation event? Now we're talking sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Dec 1968 was quite cold, so in that sense it was not the same, but the weather from mid January onward has been pretty clsoe aorund here, and the snowfall even back earlier into Dec wasn't far off. Interior did okay in Dec '68 while the CP stunk and everyone really bit the big one for snowfall in Jan '69 despite some nice blocking. I remember a big dump in Ithaca about a week after Election Day 1968. I was in physics class and couldn't take my eyes off the window while it was ripping 2/hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Magic everywhere today and still drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I thought this was an elevation event? Now we're talking sleet? It wasn't always an "elevation" event unless rates were real light and fell during the day. If the low gets going and moves close by, it brings warmer mid levels to your fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Out in clown range, but its amazing how that big plains storm at D9 runs into that block in E Canada and gets forced under SNE. Paste snow to perhaps a period of ice in itnerior (rain coast). That's a high stakes storm...could be really good or could be wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It wasn't always an "elevation" event unless rates were real light and fell during the day. If the low gets going and moves close by, it brings warmer mid levels to your fanny.Oh well I'll take my chances with that. Snow to ice for me and snow to rain for others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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