Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Mid to late February Pattern Discussion...stormy or end of winter?


ORH_wxman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 941
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Well the American side -derived PNA from 00z is still really showing a big positive bolt heading into the first week of March ... which when coupled with the impressive sag in the NAO, pretty much crushes and shatters my dream for an early spring before my very eyes... 

 

Ah well, what can you do.   The 00z ECMWF ensmebles now add to that fear by showing a correction toward positive heading toward first of the month;  this is an upward correction over the previous nights computation for those ending phase states ... by perhaps .5 of an SD, which is pretty substantial for one night.   The GFS operational is going nuts with this, showing a 4SD rise over 10 days!!  zomb.  With an NAO so sagged... something bigger may take place in there that is rather large - or perhaps just a series of systems.  But I don't buy GGEM notions of lifting the 850mb 0C isotherm that far polarward given the index complexion - those types of runs are not very well correlated.   ...stranger things have happened...

00zecmwfenspna.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its letting that energy behind the initial shredded piece catch up and reignite the storm. Verbatim a minor to low end advisory event, but def a lot better than before. Close to being a much larger event.

 

ML temps aren't overly cold so we'll have to watch for that, esp in southern areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS also showed the potential snow this past weekend, but the problem was that it was too aggressive when we got closer, while the euro snuck in and got the forecast right.

 

 

 

Yeah we'll have to see how it looks once we are inside 84 hours. That's where the Euro is really tough to beat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its letting that energy behind the initial shredded piece catch up and reignite the storm. Verbatim a minor to low end advisory event, but def a lot better than before. Close to being a much larger event.

 

ML temps aren't overly cold so we'll have to watch for that, esp in southern areas.

tolland pingers bring smiles across the board

 

when i get back from jackson nh on wed nite/thur am ....i'll be within 84 hrs of this event. crossing fingers. i told grandfather this may likely be our last powder storm of the year although you never know, but i would think it is somewhat rare on the cp past 2/20.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We're in our way of rocking to 1968-69 totals and perhaps beyond. Very similar winter ironically.

 

 

Dec 1968 was quite cold, so in that sense it was not the same, but the weather from mid January onward has been pretty clsoe aorund here, and the snowfall even back earlier into Dec wasn't far off. Interior did okay in Dec '68 while the CP stunk and everyone really bit the big one for snowfall in Jan '69 despite some nice blocking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dec 1968 was quite cold, so in that sense it was not the same, but the weather from mid January onward has been pretty clsoe aorund here, and the snowfall even back earlier into Dec wasn't far off. Interior did okay in Dec '68 while the CP stunk and everyone really bit the big one for snowfall in Jan '69 despite some nice blocking.

I remember a big dump in Ithaca about a week after Election Day 1968. I was in physics class and couldn't take my eyes off the window while it was ripping 2/hour.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Out in clown range, but its amazing how that big plains storm at D9 runs into that block in E Canada and gets forced under SNE. Paste snow to perhaps a period of ice in itnerior (rain coast).

 

 

That's a high stakes storm...could be really good or could be wet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...