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Mid to late February Pattern Discussion...stormy or end of winter?


ORH_wxman

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Euro ensembles have been cooling too in the long range for early March...it looks like a really nice pattern. It has been amping up the W Canada ridge...all the way up to NW territories and into the Beaufort Sea helping bring some colder air down into southern Canada and northern tier. They are actually colder than the GEFS which is surprising since the GEFS have tended to be colder int he long range.

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What an awesome turnaround this winter. Even if I didnt see another flake, it would be a hell of a switch.

It amazes me how we couldn't buy a 10" storm in the 80s, and early 90s and then out of nowhere in what seemed to be a meh winter....we get 30" lol.

Depending on what happens the rest of the way of course, but I still wouldnt want to see this one on an analog package...was a blowtorch for the 1st half with close to no snow...if we don't get much the rest of the way, it will be remembered for one fortuitous storm.  (ala 2006)

if it does deliver through March, then different story

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Depending on what happens the rest of the way of course, but I still wouldnt want to see this one on an analog package...was a blowtorch for the 1st half with close to no snow...if we don't get much the rest of the way, it will be remembered for one fortuitous storm.  (ala 2006)

if it does deliver through March, then different story

 

January really cooled off and Feb has been great. Yeah we had that 6 week period of funk, but you guys got hit hard in early Novie too. 

 

But, anytime you get a storm delivering over 2' of snow...it will be remembered. I live for the biggies. 

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Euro ensembles have been cooling too in the long range for early March...it looks like a really nice pattern. It has been amping up the W Canada ridge...all the way up to NW territories and into the Beaufort Sea helping bring some colder air down into southern Canada and northern tier. They are actually colder than the GEFS which is surprising since the GEFS have tended to be colder int he long range.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing a few swfe's deliver in the next month.  I know the CP can sometimes get kind of screwed in those set ups but CNE needs to play a little catch up anyway.  We've had the big one, now it's  time for a few 3-6, 4-8" storms.

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January really cooled off and Feb has been great. Yeah we had that 6 week period of funk, but you guys got hit hard in early Novie too. 

 

But, anytime you get a storm delivering over 2' of snow...it will be remembered. I live for the biggies. 

Definitely agree on that.   But given some of the pre-season hype out there, I was expecting a much colder and snowier winter door to door.   When the El Nino flopped, I knew we were in trouble...but yeah, the Blizzard saved us....

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I don't know why deterministic weather prediction has to go through this every time the NAO drops less than 0.0.  It seems every middle range there ever were that transpired for a -NAO has had a Great Lakes cutter - when the NAO falls below 0.0, that is just not well correlated for -NAO.  

 

Almost seems there is some kind of physical limitation in the models for handling the fluidity of the atmosphere when there is blocking N - E of the Lakes in conjunction with a -NAO.   The models always try to pull off the "opposite" correlation in middle/extended ranges.  I wonder why that is...   

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Not every storm may be white, but the pattern going forward is pretty darn good in terms of moisture and cold air just marginal enough.

 

Just give GC a storm that delivers.....is that too much to ask?  (granted, we got hit well with the blizzard, though I've had that at least 3 or 4 times in the 5 I've been here.)

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Not every storm may be white, but the pattern going forward is pretty darn good in terms of moisture and cold air just marginal enough.

 

yeah i was just musing that that GGEM pulls off rain for all systems on its 12z run.   

 

by the way, the first day of Met spring is in just 11 days!

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