ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro ensembles have been cooling too in the long range for early March...it looks like a really nice pattern. It has been amping up the W Canada ridge...all the way up to NW territories and into the Beaufort Sea helping bring some colder air down into southern Canada and northern tier. They are actually colder than the GEFS which is surprising since the GEFS have tended to be colder int he long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 What an awesome turnaround this winter. Even if I didnt see another flake, it would be a hell of a switch. It amazes me how we couldn't buy a 10" storm in the 80s, and early 90s and then out of nowhere in what seemed to be a meh winter....we get 30" lol. Depending on what happens the rest of the way of course, but I still wouldnt want to see this one on an analog package...was a blowtorch for the 1st half with close to no snow...if we don't get much the rest of the way, it will be remembered for one fortuitous storm. (ala 2006) if it does deliver through March, then different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Depending on what happens the rest of the way of course, but I still wouldnt want to see this one on an analog package...was a blowtorch for the 1st half with close to no snow...if we don't get much the rest of the way, it will be remembered for one fortuitous storm. (ala 2006) if it does deliver through March, then different story January really cooled off and Feb has been great. Yeah we had that 6 week period of funk, but you guys got hit hard in early Novie too. But, anytime you get a storm delivering over 2' of snow...it will be remembered. I live for the biggies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro ensembles have been cooling too in the long range for early March...it looks like a really nice pattern. It has been amping up the W Canada ridge...all the way up to NW territories and into the Beaufort Sea helping bring some colder air down into southern Canada and northern tier. They are actually colder than the GEFS which is surprising since the GEFS have tended to be colder int he long range. I wouldn't mind seeing a few swfe's deliver in the next month. I know the CP can sometimes get kind of screwed in those set ups but CNE needs to play a little catch up anyway. We've had the big one, now it's time for a few 3-6, 4-8" storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Remember when we doubted the 54 inch call? Not saying its automatic but it's not a stretch by any means now. I win all my gentleman bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 January really cooled off and Feb has been great. Yeah we had that 6 week period of funk, but you guys got hit hard in early Novie too. But, anytime you get a storm delivering over 2' of snow...it will be remembered. I live for the biggies. Definitely agree on that. But given some of the pre-season hype out there, I was expecting a much colder and snowier winter door to door. When the El Nino flopped, I knew we were in trouble...but yeah, the Blizzard saved us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Nice hit on the GFS. 6 days out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Nice hit on the GFS. 6 days out though. You will end up with it down there, Bank on it, We will get COC blocked on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Very nice 2nd half of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Nice hit on the GFS. 6 days out though.Of far more importance .. It's the GFS. We know folks thoughts on that from now on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 You will end up with it down there, Bank on it, We will get COC blocked on that one At least the ice fishing will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 At least the ice fishing will be good. Don't have to worry about falling thru the ice unless your unfortunate and step in a open hole............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Nice hit on the GFS. 6 days out though.Of far more importance .. It's the GFS. We know folks thoughts on that from now on What do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Looks like another southern stream s/w. If that ULL out over the Atl. retrogrades as modeled, than fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Looks like another southern stream s/w. If that ULL out over the Atl. retrogrades as modeled, than fun times. Huge potential in the one behind it too. Next weekend should be fun around here, weird time, all weekend storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Huge potential in the one behind it too. Next weekend should be fun around here, weird time, all weekend storms. I like the pattern. Systems just keep rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 that hudson bay block won't be effective if it's connecting to the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I don't know why deterministic weather prediction has to go through this every time the NAO drops less than 0.0. It seems every middle range there ever were that transpired for a -NAO has had a Great Lakes cutter - when the NAO falls below 0.0, that is just not well correlated for -NAO. Almost seems there is some kind of physical limitation in the models for handling the fluidity of the atmosphere when there is blocking N - E of the Lakes in conjunction with a -NAO. The models always try to pull off the "opposite" correlation in middle/extended ranges. I wonder why that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 the -NAO won't be consistent because it depends on how it's calculated. It's relatively low latitude blocking in the Atlantic for -NAO. North Greenland over to northern Scandanavia has lower heights than normal in the coming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yeah this block is well west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Ukie is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Not every storm may be white, but the pattern going forward is pretty darn good in terms of moisture and cold air just marginal enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Ensembles still SE but looked better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Not every storm may be white, but the pattern going forward is pretty darn good in terms of moisture and cold air just marginal enough. Just give GC a storm that delivers.....is that too much to ask? (granted, we got hit well with the blizzard, though I've had that at least 3 or 4 times in the 5 I've been here.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Just give GC a storm that delivers.....is that too much to ask? (granted, we got hit well with the blizzard, though I've had that at least 3 or 4 times in the 5 I've been here.) Pretty sure you'll get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Is Petes areas below avg for snow this year? I would think snowman21 would have a idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Just give GC a storm that delivers.....is that too much to ask? (granted, we got hit well with the blizzard, though I've had that at least 3 or 4 times in the 5 I've been here.) Any idea what you are at? I know you travel a lot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Not every storm may be white, but the pattern going forward is pretty darn good in terms of moisture and cold air just marginal enough. yeah i was just musing that that GGEM pulls off rain for all systems on its 12z run. by the way, the first day of Met spring is in just 11 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 My total in Kevin's snow totals tracker is pretty up to date. I think it has me at 55 or 56. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Where's noreaster27? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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