CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Its been showing up on the ensembles for several days...and most of the OP runs of the GFS have had it. Are you thinking the next 2-3 weeks could be interesting..especially given where you live? Maybe I'm nuts, but it looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Are you thinking the next 2-3 weeks could be interesting..especially given where you live? Maybe I'm nuts, but it looks good. Yeah I posted it earlier... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39136-mid-to-late-february-pattern-discussionstormy-or-end-of-winter/?p=2134760 Interior def gets favored the later we go, but the coast could do plenty fine as long as the wind isn't hardcore easterly. I think we'll have 3 or 4 good chances over the next couple weeks starting with next weekend. Right now it looks a bit weakened and mainly a light event, but certainly room for that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 We both see the same things. PNA rise with -NAO. I'm not saying expect a KU, but that's a good signal for something good. The blocking signal on the ensembles sure is nice..The southern stream still looks active on these model runs..Lag effect from the MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yeah I posted it earlier... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39136-mid-to-late-february-pattern-discussionstormy-or-end-of-winter/?p=2134760 Interior def gets favored the later we go, but the coast could do plenty fine as long as the wind isn't hardcore easterly. I think we'll have 3 or 4 good chances over the next couple weeks starting with next weekend. Right now it looks a bit weakened and mainly a light event, but certainly room for that to change. Yeah I agree fully. At least a few more threats anyways with continued stormtrack out of the Plains and -NAO to the north. Even a transient +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The blocking signal on the ensembles sure is nice..The southern stream still looks active on these model runs..Lag effect from the MJO? Perhaps, but as we head into March, screwy things happen to atmospheric wavelengths, and I don't think the signal is as coherent unless we have a strong wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 lookin forward to next cpl weeks. lets have a winter that begins in november and ends late in morch. with a nice elevation nor'easter in april to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 lookin forward to next cpl weeks. lets have a winter that begins in november and ends late in morch. with a nice elevation nor'easter in april to boot. For all our crying this one started in November and is rocking on late. It just happened to dead rat in the middle. But if you get a February 24+ event on the cp, the winter immediate gets out of dead rattersville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 def does.....that storm changed it all went from contemplating futility to feb snow fall max records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 def does.....that storm changed it all went from contemplating futility to feb snow fall max records Remember when we doubted the 54 inch call? Not saying its automatic but it's not a stretch by any means now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Remember when we doubted the 54 inch call? Not saying its automatic but it's not a stretch by any means now. Yeah. The last ten days have been special. Region wide 25-35"+ of snow. Looking ahead --- 00z GFS still advertising something brewing by next weekend. Plenty of time to work out the details, but a moderate storm appears possible after Tuesday's showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Friday into the weekend system looking better and juicier. Snowy inland and hopefully coast. What is BOX talking about next week dry and warm? that ain't happening with - NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Friday into the weekend system looking better and juicier. Snowy inland and hopefully coast. What is BOX talking about next week dry and warm? that ain't happening with - NAO Was that AFD written by someone new? Had a very different feel to it than other discussions over the years. Hopefully the torch tomorrow won't be so bad. 7.4/-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Was that AFD written by someone new? Had a very different feel to it than other discussions over the years. Hopefully the torch tomorrow won't be so bad. 7.4/-3 Doesn't look that bad. This snow pack has gone through several freeze/thaw cycles this week, it's glacial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Was that AFD written by someone new? Had a very different feel to it than other discussions over the years. Hopefully the torch tomorrow won't be so bad. 7.4/-3 Sipperell..He tries to be like Drag Noone seems to be able to give us any idea what to expect tomorrow for temps and dews..it looks like 40's..but 8-10 hours I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Sipperell..He tries to be like Drag Noone seems to be able to give us any idea what to expect tomorrow for temps and dews..it looks like 40's..but 8-10 hours I think We'll see I guess. My p/c has 39, ZFP 40. I hope some of the precip can come as snow instead of rn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I don't know what BOX meant other than a fancy way of saying the storm next week might move west which is possible, but a lot of guidance shows a secondary too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Almost a cutoff look or repetition of storms by later next week and early March. Probably a good chance for a large Tippy precip maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 There is always the 100hr storm on the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I don't know what BOX meant other than a fancy way of saying the storm next week might move west which is possible, but a lot of guidance shows a secondary too.Weekend thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Weekend thoughts? I think they'll be some snow around, but the euro continues to be rather meager. It depends how fast an how close the secondary can develop. My guess is that it will be a light event and favor inland, but still a lot of time left. The 00z gfs was a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I think they'll be some snow around, but the euro continues to be rather meager. It depends how fast an how close the secondary can develop. My guess is that it will be a light event and favor inland, but still a lot of time left. The 00z gfs was a snowstorm.Whst do you define light event as? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Whst do you define light event as? 1-3, 2-4. It certainly could be more, but I would like to see more agreement of something larger. Hopefully it trends that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 1-3, 2-4. It certainly could be more, but I would like to see more agreement of something larger. Hopefully it trends that way.Nice. You think it would start Fri nite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Nice. You think it would start Fri nite? It's looking like a later Saturday deal since we will have to wait for a second low to develop off the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Canadian has a much more substantial event on Sat night/early Sunday....Euro is pretty weak with everything. GFS kind of in between. A lot of it will depend on how some southern stream energy behind the initial shortwave on Friday acts...we get the initial s/w weakening into the meat grinder block, but then the Caandian and to a lesser extent the GFS have another piece of energy catch up with it from behind and reignite the whole system. Euro is weaker with this energy and a bit further south leaving everything more strung out. A lot of time to figure out that complex interaction though. I wouldn't really expect to know much until mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Starting to get interested in the weekend potential, while there’s lots to still have happen and I’d like to see the EURO onboard, the trends in the GFS and the GGEM have been encouraging, and seem like a logical progression, since what the GFS was showing for this a few days earlier didn’t make much sense. Verbatim still rain for here on everything but the GFS, but nice trends. I’m interested..... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Canadian has a much more substantial event on Sat night/early Sunday....Euro is pretty weak with everything. GFS kind of in between. A lot of it will depend on how some southern stream energy behind the initial shortwave on Friday acts...we get the initial s/w weakening into the meat grinder block, but then the Caandian and to a lesser extent the GFS have another piece of energy catch up with it from behind and reignite the whole system. Euro is weaker with this energy and a bit further south leaving everything more strung out. A lot of time to figure out that complex interaction though. I wouldn't really expect to know much until mid-week. There has been a subtle trend to try and get the second low to develop more, but I agree...we really won't know for a few days. Also, how cool is that block for next week? What looks like a cutter then shunted well west as a secondary develops and locks in colder air. Of course anything can happen..but pretty cool how that is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 There has been a subtle trend to try and get the second low to develop more, but I agree...we really won't know for a few days. Also, how cool is that block for next week? What looks like a cutter then shunted well west as a secondary develops and locks in colder air. Of course anything can happen..but pretty cool how that is modeled. Yeah the whole pattern is really exciting from a tracking standpoint. People need to understand that we may not get hammered in this pattern and not every storm has to be snow...but the odds are definitely higher than normal for good snow events. Such an active southern stream with a nice Hudson Bay/W -NAO block is a pretty exciting pattern. Could def see long duration event potential too at some point in the next couple weeks. At the very least, we'll be watching the models with a lot of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 What an awesome turnaround this winter. Even if I didnt see another flake, it would be a hell of a switch. It amazes me how we couldn't buy a 10" storm in the 80s, and early 90s and then out of nowhere in what seemed to be a meh winter....we get 30" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 What an awesome turnaround this winter. Even if I didnt see another flake, it would be a hell of a switch. It amazes me how we couldn't buy a 10" storm in the 80s, and early 90s and then out of nowhere in what seemed to be a meh winter....we get 30" lol. Since 1994 (split between living in Cambridge and W. MA) it seems I have seen more epic snowstorms than most will see in their entire lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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