Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I think we'll get snow from it, but it might not be a lot...the main s/w gets shredded a bit...but we do get the remnants passing under us which will give us easterly flow and some snows probably. Still aways out though and it could change and be stronger than models have it right now.Sounds good . After a boring week and torch into 50's Tuesday we need something to look forward to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Sounds good . After a boring week and torch into 50's Tuesday we need something to look forward to 50s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Where is Kevin getting 50s? We're not into waa long enough before fropa and we'll be cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Where is Kevin getting 50s? We're not into waa long enough before fropa and we'll be cloudy.Spring training for Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I thought folks were talking a rainy torch cutter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I thought folks were talking a rainy torch cutter ? A cold front with showers is more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Granted its long range op euro, but it does not look that great after mid week. Hopefully it improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 La la land, but as we still have a weak -NAO and combined with a temporary ridge out west...something near 2/28-3/2 or so seems in the cards. Pretty good signal for something anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Granted its long range op euro, but it does not look that great after mid week. Hopefully it improves. It's fine...might not be snow for everyone, but the overall look is laden with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It's fine...might not be snow for everyone, but the overall look is laden with storms.Good ens look for Fri storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Good ens look for Fri storm? Eh, not really...might be strung out, but we have time for that. If it's a light precip event, probably favors higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 If the secondary can get going, I think Friday night/Saturday would be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Eh, not really...might be strung out, but we have time for that. If it's a light precip event, probably favors higher elevations.Will seemed to think we'd see some snow from it. So hopefully the look continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Will seemed to think we'd see some snow from it. So hopefully the look continues Yeah we could, it's just kind of a meh look right now. I'd like to see the secondary get going a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 What a nice start to March with weak blocking to the north and +PNA. For NNE peeps, I think the next couple of weeks may be kind to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 What a nice start to March with weak blocking to the north and +PNA. For NNE peeps, I think the next couple of weeks may be kind to you.hopefully as some in NNE have less this week than Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Hopefully the snowpack will not take a big hit on tuesday like it did last week with rain/fog and temps stuck in the low 40's well near midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 18z gfs has stronger coastal for weekend storm. Pretty nice solution for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Hopefully the snowpack will not take a big hit on tuesday like it did last week with rain/fog and temps stuck in the low 40's well near midnight.no way, it's rock solid now, clouds and 8 hours only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Nice porno run GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 NIce GFS run for the late week threat, looks like .5"+ all snow from NYC north and east(850s were borderline for here, assuming no sneaky warm layer down here should be good for mostly snow, could be some rain at the start and then quick changeover, most people on this forum should be all snow though.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I thought about starting an actual thread for this, but perhaps we can parlay here...Rather abrupt, potentially ominous signal has emerged in the GFS ensemble derived teleconnector spread for the 20th - 5th of March. Hard to know what to hone in there, as there are several continental traversing mauler type systems - 18z has a robust Miller B for D6, and this system was flagged across several model types, and intervals off and on going back a couple days.The CDC has suddenly exploded the PNA from a beginning point around -2.5 to -3SD, all the way to +1 in both the ESRL and NCEP channels. This is well enough matched by the CPC, where after a mere homage to a dip, there is a well concerted upward modality. CPC and CDC concur on a deep NAO interval, and based upon specific details in the nature/characteristic of the various ensembles and the operational (Euro op. is also on the same page) this looks higher than median confidence to be of the west-based variety. The could very well (ironically) turn out to be the best signal of the winter; whether that bears any fruit or not remains to be seen, but this is the first time that a well agreed upon teleconnector convergence has taken place.CPC:CDC and notice the tandem heavily suppressed NAO, slightly weakens at the end when/as the PNA rises so significantly - that is a huge circulation system adjusting event signaled in there - major: For what it is worth, the Euro derived NAO is also flagging a statically depressed to -2.5 SD NAO:I realized I have spouted off about having been checked out for winter, and I still am, but personal druthers aside, that looks like some pretty fantastic Meteorology across that 2 weeks. wow. Very active and stormy pattern is signaled there. I like the Miller B idea for D6.5, but I also think the 25th -29th may be note worthy. check that: 28th - 2nd.Exception of the MJO... However, as I have stated in the past and still firmly believe, the MJO is really only as effective on the pattern when the general circulation is in constructive wave interference. The wave strength collapses toward the terminus during these ensuing index changes, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 I'm quite optimistic for the next 2-3 weeks...Euro ensembles look pretty solid right into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Tips post is intriguing. It implies a big system flipping the PNA and NAO...the last blizzard didn't do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 WinterWxCentral @WeatherFreak21 NAO forecasted to become strongly negative. Havent seen this since Sandy. More of an east based than west based. West based would suppress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Tips post is intriguing. It implies a big system flipping the PNA and NAO...the last blizzard didn't do that? Scooter mentioned 2/28 to 3/3 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Scooter mentioned 2/28 to 3/3 or so.3rd.person now? LolHe presented it well...I will look at your mention again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 3rd.person now? Lol He presented it well...I will look at your mention again. We both see the same things. PNA rise with -NAO. I'm not saying expect a KU, but that's a good signal for something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 We both see the same things. PNA rise with -NAO. I'm not saying expect a KU, but that's a good signal for something good. Its been showing up on the ensembles for several days...and most of the OP runs of the GFS have had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I just want the Morch thing to die a horrible frozen white death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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