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Mid to late February Pattern Discussion...stormy or end of winter?


ORH_wxman

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So are we looking at a double barreled redeveloped Fri/Sat with marginal cold so elevations may do ok? Or can everyone do ok?

 

Friday night /Saturday is still in the air regarding how far north precip gets. Might even be a SNE deal. It's tough to get much more detailed than that. But, going forward..I think we'll continue to have storms coming out of the Plains and a block to our north. With temps marginal..would possibly favor higher elevations, but may very well include lower elevations if enough high pressure can nose in to our north. Even signs of a transient +PNA in the beginning of March. I may be wrong, but just how I see it. I think we'll have at least a few more chances.

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Friday night /Saturday is still in the air regarding how far north precip gets. Might even be a SNE deal. It's tough to get much more detailed than that. But, going forward..I think we'll continue to have storms coming out of the Plains and a block to our north. With temps marginal..would possibly favor higher elevations, but may very well include lower elevations if enough high pressure can nose in to our north. Even signs of a transient +PNA in the beginning of March. I may be wrong, but just how I see it. I think we'll have at least a few more chances.

50+ for BOS seems likely or at least very doable. Will said 54 at the gtg and I quietly thought he was off his rocker and driving back to Boston with pickles each of us was scratching our heads. Will's a smart guy.

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50+ for BOS seems likely or at least very doable. Will said 54 at the gtg and I quietly thought he was off his rocker and driving back to Boston with pickles each of us was scratching our heads. Will's a smart guy.

 

And that was when we thought Jan would be better..lol I thought 50 was possible after NY too, but when we just got cold and dry..I started getting the lousy feeling again. That changed at the end of Jan when I mentioned the srn stream was coming alive and also a -NAO was starting to show up. I think Will and myself kept telling a few weenies that who figured persistance would rule.

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And that was when we thought Jan would be better..lol I thought 50 was possible after NY too, but when we just got cold and dry..I started getting the lousy feeling again. That changed at the end of Jan when I mentioned the srn stream was coming alive and also a -NAO was starting to show up. I think Will and myself kept telling a few weenies that who figured persistance would rule.

And that was when we thought Jan would be better..lol I thought 50 was possible after NY too, but when we just got cold and dry..I started getting the lousy feeling again. That changed at the end of Jan when I mentioned the srn stream was coming alive and also a -NAO was starting to show up. I think Will and myself kept telling a few weenies that who figured persistance would rule.

I ws among the persistence weenies. But suddenly it stqrted to snow and the southern stream delivered as I think it will next weekend.

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50+ for BOS seems likely or at least very doable. Will said 54 at the gtg and I quietly thought he was off his rocker and driving back to Boston with pickles each of us was scratching our heads. Will's a smart guy.

 

 

I remember I kept preaching patience at the GTG....that people would cancel winter a bunch of times between then and when we got snow. I def thought late Jan would be better than it was, but early February finally delivered. Late January/first few days of Feb was close to being great...we got so many minor snows with plenty of cold around, but just couldn't put it all together until the blizzard.

 

 

This current setup in many ways reminds me late Feb/early Mar 1999...that was a good pattern in an otherwise crappy winter. Hopefully we'll have another big storm or two to tack onto totals. At the very least, I don't think there are many signs of Morch incoming...early March might actually act like it this year.

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looking on to the next threat...what else can we track...running out of time, sun getting stronger...soon eek will be posting about migrating birds and flowering cannas!

Tell that to 4/1/97. Plenty of time for snow, just not great for pack retention which isn't a big deal to me in an urban area.

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I remember I kept preaching patience at the GTG....that people would cancel winter a bunch of times between then and when we got snow. I def thought late Jan would be better than it was, but early February finally delivered. Late January/first few days of Feb was close to being great...we got so many minor snows with plenty of cold around, but just couldn't put it all together until the blizzard.

This current setup in many ways reminds me late Feb/early Mar 1999...that was a good pattern in an otherwise crappy winter. Hopefully we'll have another big storm or two to tack onto totals. At the very least, I don't think there are many signs of Morch incoming...early March might actually act like it this year.

What do you think for end of week storm?
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What do you think for end of week storm?

 

 

I think we'll get snow from it, but it might not be a lot...the main s/w gets shredded a bit...but we do get the remnants passing under us which will give us easterly flow and some snows probably. Still aways out though and it could change and be stronger than models have it right now.

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