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Mid to late February Pattern Discussion...stormy or end of winter?


ORH_wxman

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The OP Euro turns a great NE (esp NNE) pattern into smoking cirrus, lol...really goes to town with that Hudson Bay block. I think powderfreak would lose it if the Euro verified like that.

Talk about a lot of chances though...just shortwave after shortwave trying its luck against that block, but none of them really succeeding. There's anouther big one coming into the south at 240h.

A block that strong could very well have a superb KU grand finale if it lifts out in early-mid March.

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Euro run is a pretty bitter lesson in why we can't just go, " -NAO hey ho hey ho" and think it means good things.   

 

I have argued this in the past that strong -NAO signals are bad.  Whether folks want to even bother getting their heads around that, or not, it's true.   

 

But there is a scale there.  The key is the term "strong"

 

A west based -1 status NAO may in fact be very good, because it isn't SO suppressive that S/Ws fail to operate underneath them in latitude.   Where as say a -4 west based NAO probably crushes all events into cirrus plumes.   It just comes down to what the characteristic of the NAO really is.  The best is probably a pulsing west based between 0 and -1 SD, on perhaps a 5 day periodicity.   Provided the Pac serves up a steady diet of S/W, more than one would time well and go bonkers on the EC.   

 

Eh, the Euro is probably getting too nutty with it.  

 

I tell you ... one particular interesting facet about the blizzard is that it happened in really a kind of void with all that.  

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The OP Euro turns a great NE (esp NNE) pattern into smoking cirrus, lol...really goes to town with that Hudson Bay block. I think powderfreak would lose it if the Euro verified like that.

 

Always a concern to me with -NAO and blocks and below normal temperatures, lol.  Its why we argue in August about the merits of -NAO patterns and below normal temperatures and all the like, haha.

 

I know that would be SNE delight, when we are smoking cirrus up here... But I do understand there is something oddly satisfying though about having it snow in your backyard while places further north with higher snowfall climo smoke cirrus.  I remember that growing up in Albany... my favorite storms were the ones where the Lake George and southern Adirondacks got shafted, lol.  I also got so sick of those kids getting snow days and seeing another month of potential winter weather up there while I sat in class watching it rain outside.  

 

Its also probably why 2009-2010 was so epic in the mid-Atlantic... they got crushed while north of them got shafted.  For a snow lover, there is an odd satisfaction in getting more snow than places with higher climo, lol.  Luckily, no one's "wants" or "needs" control the weather, and climo usually ends up winning over time ;)

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If its slightly weaker, we'd end up with like 4 feet of snow in 2 weeks to end the month with this pattern, lol.

 

Lots of interesting stuff these next 2-3 weeks. Even with a block that strong you'd have to wonder when it relaxes, a storm could blow up.

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Always a concern to me with -NAO and blocks and below normal temperatures, lol.  Its why we argue in August about the merits of -NAO patterns and below normal temperatures and all the like, haha.

 

I know that would be SNE delight, when we are smoking cirrus up here... But I do understand there is something oddly satisfying though about having it snow in your backyard while places further north with higher snowfall climo smoke cirrus.  I remember that growing up in Albany... my favorite storms were the ones where the Lake George and southern Adirondacks got shafted, lol.  I also got so sick of those kids getting snow days and seeing another month of potential winter weather up there while I sat in class watching it rain outside.  

 

Its also probably why 2009-2010 was so epic in the mid-Atlantic... they got crushed while north of them got shafted.  For a snow lover, there is an odd satisfaction in getting more snow than places with higher climo, lol.  Luckily, no one's "wants" or "needs" control the weather, and climo usually ends up winning over time ;)

 

 

As long as I get my snow, I don't really care what happens north or south of me. It can be frustrating if two towns over gets 20" and I get sucker holed with 11"...no doubt about that, but I don't really obsess over getting more snow than northern VT or some other snowier place. I guess if I ended up with like 30" more than Stowe village, I would feel like I got away with one...but otherwsie, give me a lot of snow...whether people north or south or both are getting too or not.

 

My gut feeling is the Euro and ensembles might be getting a bit too happy with the block and these threats will come north with time...considering they are southern stream juicers.

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Quick update here with dates and anomalies Have RWT S/W for Feb 26-27 with cooler conditions for time frame of Feb 27-March 3. RWT S/W for March 5/6 working with Mtn Torque even should ensure colder air in place over the north tier so I think there is the possibility for this to produce a decent storm for someone and then cooler conditions March 5-9. Have another RWT  S/W expect March 7/8 with a brief stint of cooler air for the 8 and 9. And then behind it GWO analogs indicating a TORCH in the time frame of March 9-11. A 15-20 degree warm up from prior day temps. This warm could extend through the 13th IF there is strong southerly flow ahead of a S/W tentatively expected to arrive March 13-14th. That S/W should usher in at least a 5-10 degree drop in temps for March 15-16 and then a second shot of cooler air arrives behind another S/W tentatively marked for March 16/17 that will return the region to "normal" temps for March 17-21

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As long as I get my snow, I don't really care what happens north or south of me. It can be frustrating if two towns over gets 20" and I get sucker holed with 11"...no doubt about that, but I don't really obsess over getting more snow than northern VT or some other snowier place. I guess if I ended up with like 30" more than Stowe village, I would feel like I got away with one...but otherwsie, give me a lot of snow...whether people north or south or both are getting too or not.

 

My gut feeling is the Euro and ensembles might be getting a bit too happy with the block and these threats will come north with time...considering they are southern stream juicers.

 

Thats a good way to put it.  We all just want it to snow where ever we are... so yeah, no one ever wishes for some area *not* to get snow, but if it comes down to MBY or someone else's, we'd all prefer our own backyard, lol.  Pretty standard human nature.

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Time to think about spring............its only a few short days away, days are rapidly growing longer increasing sun angle, this snow should be out of here by Wed!

 

 

Circle of Sizzle is only weeks away, warmanista's unite the Trinity of the Torch is about to hold court.

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Time to think about spring............its only a few short days away, days are rapidly growing longer increasing sun angle, this snow should be out of here by Wed!

 

 

Circle of Sizzle is only weeks away, warmanista's unite the Trinity of the Torch is about to hold court.

 

i think the next 30 days will be a bit below normal.

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Time to think about spring............its only a few short days away, days are rapidly growing longer increasing sun angle, this snow should be out of here by Wed!

 

 

Circle of Sizzle is only weeks away, warmanista's unite the Trinity of the Torch is about to hold court.

lol :weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

 

(thought this was the no OT banter mid range disco thread)

 

(mods please move both posts to banter)

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