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Mid to late February Pattern Discussion...stormy or end of winter?


ORH_wxman

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I should do pretty well over the next few weeks.

 

I have 70% confidence in all snow for Tuesday event up here. Maybe a deal where Kevin goes quickly to rain while Will pulls a quick 4" and Dendrite gets 6+?

Too early for that...don't jinx me already. Looking at the euro for next week gives me that 07-08 warm, fuzzy feeling though. Too far out to overlyanalyze though.
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Don't get me wrong, I'm liking where I sit for the next 10 days. I just don't want to read dendrite 6"+ for Tuesday yet. You may need to make a CH visit in the coming weeks.

 

ECMWF ensembles look good for that one, too.

 

And am I missing something or does it look more like a Wednesday event than a Tuesday one? 

 

We are starting to get to the time of year when the jet and baroclinic zone starts moving north again, so we should definitely start to have more chances at higher latitudes rather than watching everything go out way south of us.

 

12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS120.gif

 

12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS144.gif

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Euro ensembles look really good for the Friday threat as well. Redevelop the low near the Delmarva and track it near the BM. That one has a SWFE redeveloper appeal to it. The building west based -NAO is going to help force some of these would-be cutters to the E/ENE. Hopefully its in time to get everyone in on the fun.

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AWT's are flying like weenies

 

 

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH 15.0Z ECMWF AND GFS KEY UPON ANOTHER SWEEPING SYSTEM ACROSS THEREGION THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHICH REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE MODESTSOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MIXEDPRECIPITATION TYPES FOR THE SHORELINES AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAINS.BUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY.
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AWT's are flying like weenies

 

 

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH 15.0Z ECMWF AND GFS KEY UPON ANOTHER SWEEPING SYSTEM ACROSS THEREGION THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHICH REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE MODESTSOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MIXEDPRECIPITATION TYPES FOR THE SHORELINES AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAINS.BUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY.

Still too warm for you my friend.

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AWT's are flying like weenies

 

 

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH 15.0Z ECMWF AND GFS KEY UPON ANOTHER SWEEPING SYSTEM ACROSS THEREGION THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHICH REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE MODESTSOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MIXEDPRECIPITATION TYPES FOR THE SHORELINES AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAINS.BUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY.

 

I'd say some snow is a possibility... just how far into the interior though is the question, lol.

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Still love the look going forward. That west based -NAO look and active srn stream will keep storm after storm coming I think. They may not all be white, but we'll see.

Yup, 0z ECM had a huge block in the long-range with cold air starting to spill back over the pole into Canada. The GFS also showed the blocking pattern..

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The OP Euro turns a great NE (esp NNE) pattern into smoking cirrus, lol...really goes to town with that Hudson Bay block. I think powderfreak would lose it if the Euro verified like that.

Talk about a lot of chances though...just shortwave after shortwave trying its luck against that block, but none of them really succeeding. There's anouther big one coming into the south at 240h.

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