CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What an awesome GEFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What an awesome GEFS run. JB Tip and LL have cancelled winter at one time or another this month, Kev cancelled the second half of Feb and all of March back in Feb, game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 JB Tip and LL have cancelled winter at one time or another this month, Kev cancelled the second half of Feb and all of March back in Feb, game on. What - don't group me with those guys. I spoke factually about the teleconnector spread, objectively, and that did not require "canceling" anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 What an awesome GEFS run. Yeah what in the hell....it actually pumps up the AK ridge again. Its a cold run for the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 Tip, the PNA has very little bearing on our temps by late February and actually has a positive correlation (albeit weakly) with our temps by March rather than inverse correlation, so I would pretty much ignore the PNA signal unless we are looking at temps down in the Mid-Atlantic or southeast U.S. EPO signal weakens as well, but still important...NAO most important in late Feb. All of them though have dampened signals compared to mid-winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Tip, the PNA has very little bearing on our temps by late February and actually has a positive correlation (albeit weakly) with our temps by March rather than inverse correlation, so I would pretty much ignore the PNA signal unless we are looking at temps down in the Mid-Atlantic or southeast U.S. EPO signal weakens as well, but still important...NAO most important in late Feb. All of them though have dampened signals compared to mid-winter. It's not the PNA that worries me .... it's the COMBINATION of the PNA + EPO + (2-5 octanes of the MJO), that's the issue - I was clear. But, I agree the NAO being negative is interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yeah John I understand the intricacies of these teleconnections. I think what sort of opens my eyes, is an active branch of the jet to our south, and the propensity of a -NAO. The caveat might be temps...but this IMHO has the look of an active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yeah John I understand the intricacies of these teleconnections. I think what sort of opens my eyes, is an active branch of the jet to our south, and the propensity of a -NAO. The caveat might be temps...but this IMHO has the look of an active pattern. Maybe it will be an above average bowling season - word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What - don't group me with those guys. I spoke factually about the teleconnector spread, objectively, and that did not require "canceling" anything Oh sorry, I saw this,Would not shock me if we are closer the end on this 2012-2013 season - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 JB seems to (simplistically IMO) be riding the MJO so much and since it is heading into 4-5-6 is forecasting some kind of snap to Spring within a couple weeks. JB Tip and LL have cancelled winter at one time or another this month, Kev cancelled the second half of Feb and all of March back in Feb, game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 You guys had your storm of the year (if not the decade) so if winter snaps you are satiated so to speak. I'm still hungry LOL, but I'll throw it in if Morch appears. Oh sorry, I saw this,Would not shock me if we are closer the end on this 2012-2013 season - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Oh sorry, I saw this,Would not shock me if we are closer the end on this 2012-2013 season - Right - That does not say "cancel" winter. It says, it would not shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 You guys had your storm of the year (if not the decade) so if winter snaps you are satiated so to speak. I'm still hungry LOL, but I'll throw it in if Morch appears. I'm good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Pretty active week on the models. This was the pattern and week I was referring to a couple weeks ago. LOL Last half of Feb looks banging with plenty of S/W's though. I gave you guys my forecast through Feb.11 last Sunday. I will write a more indepth forecast and POP of the last 3 weeks on Monday or something. But it looks like Feb 11-13 will be another 5-10 degree warm up ahead of a S/W arriving the 14 or 15th with colder air behind it for Feb 15-17. Strat. analogs are showing 4 storms in a week and a half period for the second half of Feb. I'm waiting for more GWO data though before I confirm and jump on the bandwagon for such an active pattern. Although this would jive with the thoughts of a snowy pattern for the Plains/upper MS valley and the NE still ending up with about normal snowfall while at the same time having above normal temps for the month....just plenty of opportunities to score while getting screwed on others. Also like the high in the way at 140W. I think it will do a nice job of splitting this strong xt-RWT at 170W in to several pieces with pockets of energy slipping underneath and emerging as pulses along the southern jet that could possible end up phasing with their siblings that took the northern jet on the 21/22 time frame. Also marked out xt-RWT over Africa that I think will be a player come March 6/7 that matches up with a Mtn. torque event meaning colder air should be over the region. I think it could be a decent storm for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 EC op/ens look ripe for SWFEs/coastal redevelopers next week. This may be the interior's chance for a snowy stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like a snowy week next week with several regionwide snow chances..Saturday/Tuesday and Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like a snowy week next week with several regionwide snow chances..Saturday/Tuesday and Friday Pushing "like" button furiously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like a snowy week next week with several regionwide snow chances..Saturday/Tuesday and Friday Except Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Except TuesdayTuesday is snowy inland. Rain to snow for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tuesday is snowy inland. Rain to snow for you No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 No Yes TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE INITIALLY DRY AND QUIET...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE AHEAD OFA STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THEATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WET WX ALONG THE COASTSWITH POSSIBLE INTERIOR SNOWS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE 14.0Z RUNSOF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BECOME SIMILAR. WILL CONCEDE TO ABLEND OF THE TWO. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLDFRONT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ALL RAIN TO RAIN/SNOWMIX FOR THE S/E SHORES AND COASTAL PLAINS OF NEW ENGLAND...WITHBETTER CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR /SEVERAL INCHES PSBL/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yes TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE INITIALLY DRY AND QUIET...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE AHEAD OFA STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THEATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WET WX ALONG THE COASTSWITH POSSIBLE INTERIOR SNOWS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE 14.0Z RUNSOF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BECOME SIMILAR. WILL CONCEDE TO ABLEND OF THE TWO. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLDFRONT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ALL RAIN TO RAIN/SNOWMIX FOR THE S/E SHORES AND COASTAL PLAINS OF NEW ENGLAND...WITHBETTER CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR /SEVERAL INCHES PSBL/. as modeled right now, it's meh. could evolve into something better depending on how things shift around to our NE but it's mainly wet even for you on the 00z runs. maybe one of these days you'll actually trust us instead of thinking we are 2nd rate to other mets who don't post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 as modeled right now, it's meh. could evolve into something better depending on how things shift around to our NE but it's mainly wet even for you on the 00z runs. maybe one of these days you'll actually trust us instead of thinking we are 2nd rate to other mets who don't post here. He's a clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 as modeled right now, it's meh. could evolve into something better depending on how things shift around to our NE but it's mainly wet even for you on the 00z runs. maybe one of these days you'll actually trust us instead of thinking we are 2nd rate to other mets who don't post here. Why so nasty and defensive and jumping into a 1 way convo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Why so nasty and defensive and jumping into a 1 way convo? He's on the money. I find it hard to be much snow where you are, this is a NNE deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 He's on the money. I find it hard to be much snow where you are, this is a NNE deal. Rain to snow seems the way to go for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 as modeled right now, it's meh. could evolve into something better depending on how things shift around to our NE but it's mainly wet even for you on the 00z runs. maybe one of these days you'll actually trust us instead of thinking we are 2nd rate to other mets who don't post here.Why so nasty and defensive and jumping into a 1 way convo? Lol. Not nasty or defensive at all. Just saying - you never like / believe our take on things...always have to find other thoughts to dispute our posts. How come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Lol. Not nasty or defensive at all. Just saying - you never like / believe our take on things...always have to find other thoughts to dispute our posts. How come? you haven't figured that out yet? LOL Yea Tuesday looks warm but has the chance to evolve snowier , dumbfounded day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tuesday does not have the chance to go snowier IMO. It's just not the setup for that. Can't win 'em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tuesday does not have the chance to go snowier IMO. It's just not the setup for that. Can't win 'em all. That is a long ways out though, mucho can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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