ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Given that some of the other threads have become almost unreadable due to the constant whining, I thought I would create something where fooks who are still interested in the meteorology of the pattern for February can read/post without distraction. Scott has already mentioned in passing several times in the banter thread about the Euro ensembles and GEFS being quite different beyond D10. The Euro ensembles show a milder pattern while GEFS go colder and stormier. Euro ensembles have trended a little bit though over the past day or so in building up the heights in NW Canada. HM has mentioned the extreme model difficulty in handling this pattern coming up (outside of the usual caveats for D10-15 and beyond)...likely due to the complete mess down in the Tropical Pacific. At any rate, here are the GEFS: The ridge in the west is even more pumped up after D11-12 up into NW Canada and AK. I can't post the Euro ensembles beyond D10, but they are more subdued with the ridging out west and have the low anomaly further east up in the Bering region (bad for us), though as stated before, they are trying to retrograde that west somewhat and pump up the heights more right near the end of their run the last day or so. A +PNA with a N ATL ridge and lacking a big -EPO doesn't come across as a particularly cold pattern to me, but it would be stormy. Especially with the clear indication of a split flow out west and some southern energy getting more active. The million dollar question (other than "how much snow for IMBY?") is whether we see the EC ensembles trend more toward the GEFS or vice versa. GEFS are a lot more favorable than EC ensembles. Secondly, how long does this last? Calls for winter to end by mid-month could be in serious trouble if we see the tendency for heights to build up near AK/NW Canada after the 15th which even the EC ensmebles were trying to do..they were just a lot crappier before that than the GEFS. Here is how it looks more at the very end of the run near D15-16 The retrogression of the low height anomaly near the Bering will be a key feature in how the final 2-3 weeks of February plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The models really are in a battle after the 10th. The GEFS continue to more ridging into AK while the euro weakens that and has a SW cutoff the pumps heights up over the east. The Canadian looks more like the GEFS. I might be wrong, but part of me wants to side a bit more towards the GEFS for reasons other than wanting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The models really are in a battle after the 10th. The GEFS continue to more ridging into AK while the euro weakens that and has a SW cutoff the pumps heights up over the east. The Canadian looks more like the GEFS. I might be wrong, but part of me wants to side a bit more towards the GEFS for reasons other than wanting snow. Part of this goes back to a post I made a couple of days ago about the models and the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 A good idea for an elixir, Will - keep the rabble on better terms by re-focusing their tastes away from the massive helpings of unrelenting dogschit they have been forcibly fed for what, 45 days and counting... j/k. Or should I say, jesus christ. seriously, I don't think it will matter, until ... I am 100% sold on notion that nothing can happen until the circulation medium of this quatrahemispheric scope f slows down, even a little. Christ on a crutch, how many times do we have to witness this sort of 84 hour modeled storm degenerative disorder before making the correct diagnosis. What is causing this could be anything from the nature of the oceanic/atmospheric coupled state from the Pac then relaying eastward, to a cold polar cycle timing over a background GW .... who the f knows, but the bottom line is, the flow is too quick anywhere for big events. I just mentioned this in the other thread, but the ~ 84 hour lead is when these interesting winter systems in the middle range have been seemingly crossing a temporal boundary of doom. I have figured out why THAT much is happening. The flows on average have been relaxing beyond about 96 hours for about the last 2 months worth of modeling practice, regardless of type or creed, when and where the given model might have - more often than not - a significant system on the charts. But what happens at 72-96 or so hours? Said model goes, "oh, schit, that's right, I forgot to speed the flow up faster than what seems physically possible amid planet Earth's atmospheric mise-en-scene". It does this by either deepening the vortex N, or subtly raising heights S, but the net result is very fast integrated flow where individual impulses ...disappear in the maelstrom. Eh, you know the drill... But the point is, for quite literally a month and half or more, this failure to see the speed of the flow has been seriously f up the accuracy of the middle ranges, and has persistent with alarming perpetuity. It just is unrelenting and won't stop - it seems, to the point where maybe it can't. You know, it may make for an interesting bowling season - as it is so lovingly referred. Watch us end up with another April 1 1997 system or two from early March onward... heh. who knows. But yeah, those GEFs progs "look" nice on the surface, but one must wonder if that era comes to pass with the flow so steep between that vortex and the SE that the same old bullcrap takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Given that some of the other threads have become almost unreadable due to the constant whining, I thought I would create something where fooks who are still interested in the meteorology of the pattern for February can read/post without distraction. Scott has already mentioned in passing several times in the banter thread about the Euro ensembles and GEFS being quite different beyond D10. The Euro ensembles show a milder pattern while GEFS go colder and stormier. Euro ensembles have trended a little bit though over the past day or so in building up the heights in NW Canada. HM has mentioned the extreme model difficulty in handling this pattern coming up (outside of the usual caveats for D10-15 and beyond)...likely due to the complete mess down in the Tropical Pacific. At any rate, here are the GEFS: The ridge in the west is even more pumped up after D11-12 up into NW Canada and AK. I can't post the Euro ensembles beyond D10, but they are more subdued with the ridging out west and have the low anomaly further east up in the Bering region (bad for us), though as stated before, they are trying to retrograde that west somewhat and pump up the heights more right near the end of their run the last day or so. A +PNA with a N ATL ridge and lacking a big -EPO doesn't come across as a particularly cold pattern to me, but it would be stormy. Especially with the clear indication of a split flow out west and some southern energy getting more active. The million dollar question (other than "how much snow for IMBY?") is whether we see the EC ensembles trend more toward the GEFS or vice versa. GEFS are a lot more favorable than EC ensembles. Secondly, how long does this last? Calls for winter to end by mid-month could be in serious trouble if we see the tendency for heights to build up near AK/NW Canada after the 15th which even the EC ensmebles were trying to do..they were just a lot crappier before that than the GEFS. Here is how it looks more at the very end of the run near D15-16 The retrogression of the low height anomaly near the Bering will be a key feature in how the final 2-3 weeks of February plays out. I love that trough east of HI and how it feeds the southern stream if I am interpreting that correctly. The N ATL ridge seems to be pretty strong and moves closer to southern greenland? Is it in a position to be helpful to us? It looks like the PNA and N ATL ridges want to connect later in the period. It looks good but we've had so many good looking charts this year, even ones with -NAO blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 I love that trough east of HI and how it feeds the southern stream if I am interpreting that correctly. The N ATL ridge seems to be pretty strong and moves closer to southern greenland? Is it in a position to be helpful to us? It looks like the PNA and N ATL ridges want to connect later in the period. It looks good but we've had so many good looking charts this year, even ones with -NAO blocking. I remain skeptical on true -NAO blocking, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. We finally got it in 2005 near the end of Feb and the first half of March after a lot of psuedo -NAOs in the N ATL...obviously the sensible wx didn't suffer much in '05 before the true NAO block occured. But the point is that just because it hasn't happened to date, doesn't mean it won't happen eventually. But I remain skeptical at least in the next 2 weeks only because we don't really have a solid teleconnector to it...that PV over Hudson Bay is not a good teleconnector to a ture -NAO block. But we'll see how it evolves. The more active PAcific is what will change the pattern for the better in terms of a lot more storm chances. The northern stream alone can work out just fine...but you have to get well timed shortwaves and we just haven't had them this year. You get more margin for error in producing high precip events with a split flow...whether its snowier or not remains to be seen...we don't a big ridge forming in the east either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I remain skeptical on true -NAO blocking, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. We finally got it in 2005 near the end of Feb and the first half of March after a lot of psuedo -NAOs in the N ATL...obviously the sensible wx didn't suffer much in '05 before the true NAO block occured. But the point is that just because it hasn't happened to date, doesn't mean it won't happen eventually. But I remain skeptical at least in the next 2 weeks only because we don't really have a solid teleconnector to it...that PV over Hudson Bay is not a good teleconnector to a ture -NAO block. But we'll see how it evolves. The more active PAcific is what will change the pattern for the better in terms of a lot more storm chances. The northern stream alone can work out just fine...but you have to get well timed shortwaves and we just haven't had them this year. You get more margin for error in producing high precip events with a split flow...whether its snowier or not remains to be seen...we don't a big ridge forming in the east either. If we get the true split stream does that slow down the flow for us? Tip has been harping on that, and I wonder if the split flow helps in that regard to slow down the flow because it splits the pacific energy. Is that right? As a matter of fact, with a big ridge out west like we have had, why hasn't that amplitude slowed the flow? The pattern on those charts would almost surely be snowy here I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Great post Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 About time some stuff worth reading (thank you Will). This whining and b*tching is well overdone, and beyond annoying. People need to get out more and off these message boards when the pattern isn't favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 About time some stuff worth reading (thank you Will). This whining and b*tching is well overdone, and beyond annoying. People need to get out more and off these message boards when the pattern isn't favorable. Feb 9th /10th look very interesting to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 The GFS and ensembles have been quite fast to rebuild the ridge in the west after the brief reprieve in the Feb 7-9 time range. We'll have to see how that goes...they really try to spike it poleward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Feb 9th /10th look very interesting to me meh. Perhaps some cyclogenesis around that time which would give us a system maybe worth noting a couple days later. Pattern for the 14th-15th looks nice by just looking at GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Feb 9th /10th look very interesting to meI like around the 11th more, but it has mess potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Thanks for starting this thread Will. I acknowledge being one of the whiners this morning but overall I've been feel It decent about February into march. We'll see, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Out of curiosity... Does anyone have records of what happened 1957-1958 and 1968-1969? At KBOS: 1957-1958: 6.7" through Feb 1 38" after Feb 1 1968-1969" 6.4" through Feb 1 47.4" after Feb 1 Holster the weenie buns... I'm not picking KBOS for mby predictions for this current season... I'm genuinely curious. Those 2 years featured a drastic turnaround in sensible weather. Was there a dramatic pattern change or some other reason for the change? What were the large-scale features that brought about such a prolific 4th quarter comeback? Were those big February totals a result of 2-3 big KU's, multiple nickle-dime SWFE's, or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Thanks for starting this thread Will. I acknowledge being one of the whiners this morning but overall I've been feel It decent about February into march. We'll see, It's more frustration and I'm right there. You and I are winter weather lovers and it's been a tough 2 seasons. Nothing wrong with venting...especially since BOS has been screwjob central. I agree with Brian about the 11th onward. The 10th or so looks ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Scooter, do you mean through the 10th or the 10th specifically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Scooter, do you mean through the 10th or the 10th specifically? The date around the 10th could feature a messy storm or even liquid. We'll have a deep trough over the southwest which will probably send a low out and pump up heights over the east, I suppose the nrn stream which has been fast and suppressed as you well know...could try and squash this, but I'm not optimistic on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Out of curiosity... Does anyone have records of what happened 1957-1958 and 1968-1969? At KBOS: 1957-1958: 6.7" through Feb 1 38" after Feb 1 1968-1969" 6.4" through Feb 1 47.4" after Feb 1 Holster the weenie buns... I'm not picking KBOS for mby predictions for this current season... I'm genuinely curious. Those 2 years featured a drastic turnaround in sensible weather. Was there a dramatic pattern change or some other reason for the change? What were the large-scale features that brought about such a prolific 4th quarter comeback? Were those big February totals a result of 2-3 big KU's, multiple nickle-dime SWFE's, or what? Well there's the Lindsay storm in early Feb 1969 and then the 100 hr storm, blocking showed up. Then of course there was March 1958 triple phaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Well there's the Lindsay storm in early Feb 1969 and then the 100 hr storm, blocking showed up. Then of course there was March 1958 triple phaser Steve, the march 58 storm was good but nothing like the feb 58 storm which dropped 20 at BOS. March was better further south. Ironically I remember both vividly as I was old enough then and I was a senior in college heading to Boston in the fall during 1968-69. The Lindsay storm jackpotted the NYC area and as luck would have it I was home for that weekend. That's when I discovered my fathers weenie ism when at the height of the storm during the day Sunday he concocted a lame reason to drive somewhere....lol. March if 58 was during a series of big marches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Out of curiosity... Does anyone have records of what happened 1957-1958 and 1968-1969? At KBOS: 1957-1958: 6.7" through Feb 1 38" after Feb 1 1968-1969" 6.4" through Feb 1 47.4" after Feb 1 Holster the weenie buns... I'm not picking KBOS for mby predictions for this current season... I'm genuinely curious. Those 2 years featured a drastic turnaround in sensible weather. Was there a dramatic pattern change or some other reason for the change? What were the large-scale features that brought about such a prolific 4th quarter comeback? Were those big February totals a result of 2-3 big KU's, multiple nickle-dime SWFE's, or what? 2011-2012: 7.8" through Feb. 1 1.5" after Feb. 1 I see what you're saying though, I hope it isn't like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Look to the -NAO for those winters. I'm. It not able to post the H5 pattern, but they featured great blocks, March '58 and 'Feb 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Steve, the march 58 storm was good but nothing like the feb 58 storm which dropped 20 at BOS. March was better further south. Ironically I remember both vividly as I was old enough then and I was a senior in college heading to Boston in the fall during 1968-69. The Lindsay storm jackpotted the NYC area and as luck would have it I was home for that weekend. That's when I discovered my fathers weenie ism when at the height of the storm during the day Sunday he concocted a lame reason to drive somewhere....lol. March if 58 was during a series of big marches. Feb '58 was the triple phase storm...not the Mar '58 one Steve mentioned. Though they were both bombs. As for this pattern for mid-month and beyond....I am on the bandwagon of the Feb 10th or so looks like a warm system...but obviously not locked in stone at this point. Feb 8-9 and stuff afterward look like better bets. Euro ensembles today still build heights at the end of their run, but they are much more sluggish doing it versus the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Look to The -NAO for those winters. I'm. It not able to post the H5 pattern, but they featured great blocks, March '58 and 'Feb 69. The funny thing is that the pattern ddn't change that much from Jan '69 to Feb '69....we just got skunked horrifically in Jan '69 Here is Jan '69: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Feb '58 was the triple phase storm...not the Mar '58 one Steve mentioned. Though they were both bombs. When was the last triple phase storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The funny thing is that the pattern ddn't change that much from Jan '69 to Feb '69....we just got skunked horrifically in Jan '69 Here is Jan '69: Yeah sign me up anytime for that lol. Funny how a wiggle here and there means so much as far as snowfall in SNE. I guess that's why we say a pattern looks favorable, but that word does not mean S+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Yeah sign me up anytime for that lol. Funny how a wiggle here and there means so much as far as snowfall in SNE. I guess that's why we say a pattern looks favorable, but that word does not mean S+. Yeah only real difference was slightly larger extension of the lower heights along the W coast and up into AK....if anything, you might say that looks worse than January....though the block in the Davis straight looked a bit more elongated and perhaps that helped some by lowering heights in the SE....but as you just said, nuances rather than massive large scale changes: If you recall from yesterday (I think it was yesterday) when I posted the analog composite from late Dec 2010 for January 2011, Jan 1969 appeared twice out of 10 analogs. Nobody in New England is going to confuse January 1969 with January 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Yep Feb 58 was awesome http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/feb1219_1958_500_loop.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Stem winder blizzard at the end of the op gfs run. If only.... It happens by full phase. Maybe that's the type of thing that turned the prior ratter winters to gold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 i think the pattern looks good for QPF and thus most likely best for NNE. Will it be good enuf for MRG to reopen? they say they will need "alot of new snow" to reopen main mtn. speaks volumes to how the winter has been wrt to natural up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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