Allsnow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Boy orhwxman rallying the crew in the sne forum. Hopefully it works out for them. To many day 10 prog ensembles have burn me this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Boy orhwxman rallying the crew in the sne forum. Hopefully it works out for them. To many day 10 prog ensembles have burn me this year The pattern is looking great for us also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Woof at the Euro Weeklies. What an epic pattern for the next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingofQueens Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wow the March 1st storm looks pretty good for I-95. Too bad its 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wow at the March 2nd storm on the GFS. The blocking goes nuts on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That is a KU pattern/setup on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Precipitation has started as snow here. Temp, 41 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 That is a KU pattern/setup on the GFS We actually have a seperate thread now for the medium-long range thanks to Doug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Still snow, heavy at times. Temp down to 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Still snow, heavy at times. Temp down to 40 degrees. Radar looks very impressive. Also heard that a lot of folks down in the Philly forum are reporting snow. I saw that snooping around the New England forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Radar looks very impressive. Also heard that a lot of folks down in the Philly forum are reporting snow. I saw that snooping around the New England forum. Yes, this is pretty crazy, was 41 degrees at the start, down to 38 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I guess one of the moderators took it upon themselves to delete my thread that I started about the March 2nd potential storm. Nice. Anyway, the threat is still very evident on the 12z GFS ensemble members and the 12z ECMWF. I had put out a very well thought-out post and thought I started a nice thread. I really don't appreciate that the post was apparently deleted. If this storm does occur, I will expect an apology from the person responsible. I have on many occasions nailed storms from two weeks away, regardless of the fact that many people don't believe it can be done. Anyway, here are the latest ensemble members from the 12z GFS. Notice how many of them produce a significant Nor'easter near us at the same exact time. P002 sure would be interesting. I don't understand how reading what a model says for 2 weeks out verbatim is someone nailing the storm. Aren't they just regurgitating what the models are showing? If it doesn't work out - blame it on the models - it if does work out which statistically is rare you can say you predicted it 2 weeks out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Which previously banned poster is mikemurph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Which previously banned poster is mikemurph? i'm guessing Noreaster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Which previously banned poster is mikemurph? I've been wondering the same thing. Noreaster27?? His posts are painful to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Yes, this is pretty crazy, was 41 degrees at the start, down to 38 now. Are you still snowing? It started as rain in Ramsey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Snowing at my office on Rt 23 in Butler also. Didn't expect this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I don't understand how reading what a model says for 2 weeks out verbatim is someone nailing the storm. Aren't they just regurgitating what the models are showing? If it doesn't work out - blame it on the models - it if does work out which statistically is rare you can say you predicted it 2 weeks out..... It is not model regurgitation as you say. It is model and pattern analysis. Isn't that what every forecaster does? Many times I forecast something before the models even show what I am talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Are you still snowing? It started as rain in Ramsey. Yes, down to 36 now. Half inch accumulation on the hilltops nearby, with snow covered roads on the hill tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Been snowing up here for the last hour.. Temp 35 No rain to speak of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Snowing at my office on Rt 23 in Butler also. Didn't expect this. probably not anymore. i went to rain by me in butler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Which soon to be banned poster is mikemurph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Does anyone have a link the Canadian through hr 240? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Does anyone have a link the Canadian through hr 240? Thanks. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 This event is another example of how the Niña pattern doesn't benefit this area: we just had two days with departures near -10F, including a frigid Sunday night in the lower teens, and now it's raining with occasional sleet mixed in. This weekend may be another repeat: Wednesday and Thursday look cold here with 33/21 and 33/24, but then another rain/mix event arrives Friday and Saturday. January was the perfect example: Westchester didn't get above freezing for a week, but only managed 1.5" of snow from the cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 This event is another example of how the Niña pattern doesn't benefit this area: we just had two days with departures near -10F, including a frigid Sunday night in the lower teens, and now it's raining with occasional sleet mixed in. This weekend may be another repeat: Wednesday and Thursday look cold here with 33/21 and 33/24, but then another rain/mix event arrives Friday and Saturday. January was the perfect example: Westchester didn't get above freezing for a week, but only managed 1.5" of snow from the cold pattern. The answer here is very simple. We have both a very fast progressive pattern. And long periods of the mean ridge on the west coast too far west allowing time for s/w's to amplify well before our area. Couple that with a lack of good blocking (most of the time) and lack of confluence to suppress those heights incoming storms from the west coast and your left with a pattern that we are in at least for the near future. There has actually been plenty of winter weather in terms of snow and cold, especially as compared to last season. We have however missed out on most snow opportunities and the dry and cold then warm wet pattern were in continues. Throw something different into the pattern such as an intense MJO wave ( feb 8-9th blizzard) and west based blocking ( nov storm and the next 7-10 days into early march?) and that is where our snowiest periods exist. Otherwise it's the same old story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The answer here is very simple. We have both a very fast progressive pattern. And long periods of the mean ridge on the west coast too far west allowing time for s/w's to amplify well before our area. Couple that with a lack of good blocking (most of the time) and lack of confluence to suppress those heights incoming storms from the west coast and your left with a pattern that we are in at least for the near future. There has actually been plenty of winter weather in terms of snow and cold, especially as compared to last season. We have however missed out on most snow opportunities and the dry and cold then warm wet pattern were in continues. Throw something different into the pattern such as an intense MJO wave ( feb 8-9th blizzard) and west based blocking ( nov storm and the next 7-10 days into early march?) and that is where our snowiest periods exist. Otherwise it's the same old story Don't get me wrong: this hasn't been a bad winter for Westchester. We're above climo for snowfall, and temperatures have been about average if you include the cold November, which was part of the winter season this year, although it's not always...This has not been a repeat of Winter 11-12 by any means, a winter that lacked major snowfalls (we've had 2 this year, 17" and 8"), snowpack (we've had snow since February 8th and had light snowpack in late January), and cold temperatures (this year we had an arctic outbreak in January). As you say, despite a -AO, we've not realized a classic -NAO block. The NAO has been neutral most of the winter, with an offshore Pacific ridge, leading to cold air mostly dumping into the interior/mountain West and occasionally Northern Plains. And, the most consistent feature of winter since 03-04 has stayed the same: Asia has seen the lion's share of the hemisphere's cold air: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 The new NAM is a pretty good soaking here. Between 0.25"-0.50" of rain area wide still to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Seems wet for the week end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Which previously banned poster is mikemurph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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