Sampson Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 those were made in January Skeezics - remember how warm it was compared to last year ??? The comparisons ended with that week long arctic outbreak - try again.........I don't care enough to look but I'm pretty sure they were made up until the 8th or a week before. In any event, you cant blame people for calling you out when you make definitive posts about something that hasn't happened, and you do it in a very condescending manner. That was your MO this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 we're down to 4 inches here of snowpack... i'm afraid i might start seeing bare spots over the next few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13As of 18 February 2013 / 7:00 AM ETBridgeport: 51.3"NWS Upton: 42.6"Islip: 39.3" Newark: 20.7" NYC Central Park: 18.8"LaGuardia: 16.1"JFK: 13.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13 As of 18 February 2013 / 7:00 AM ET Bridgeport: 51.3" NWS Upton: 42.6" Islip: 39.3" Newark: 20.7" NYC Central Park: 18.8" LaGuardia: 16.1" JFK: 13.2" when is the last time Islip and Upton had amounts just about 2X that of Newark as of Feb 18th ? ( not including very low snowfall winters) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 when is the last time Islip and Upton had amounts just about 2X that of Newark as of Feb 18th ? ( not including very low snowfall winters) For Upton...maybe 2004-05...when they finished the season with 78.5". Edit: Upton had 62.5" on 2/28/2005 while Newark had 35.6" on the same day...so not quite. (I can only check through the last day of any month). If you want to go a little earlier (in the season), during the 2009-10 winter, Upton has 39.0" of snow by 1/31/2010 while Newark was at 15.0" as of that date...but Newark had an exceptional February and cut into the deficit some. http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm The Islip record (as well as the Bridgeport, CT record) is riddled with holes and adequate record keeping for snowfall did not begin at both stations until about 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 For Upton...maybe 2004-05...when they finished the season with 78.5". Edit: Upton had 62.5" on 2/28/2005 while Newark had 35.6" on the same day...so not quite. (I can only check through the last day of any month). If you want to go a little earlier (in the season), during the 2009-10 winter, Upton has 39.0" of snow by 1/31/2010 while Newark was at 15.0" as of that date...but Newark had an exceptional February and cut into the deficit some. http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm The Islip record (as well as the Bridgeport, CT record) is riddled with holes and adequate record keeping for snowfall did not begin at both stations until about 2008. since you mentioned 2/28/2005 took a look at that storm and the set up for the 22- 24th storm reminds me of the 2/28/2005 - 3/1/2005 storm minus the high pressure that developed to our northeast before the 2/28/05 storm - if that were to happen later this week and the previous storm gets in the 50/50 position this type of storm could develop here - one possibility with a negative NAO and block this periodhttp://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/28-Feb-05-SurfaceMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Please happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Please happen you need the 50/50 low in the right spot (not in the 50/50 position per the models-and cold high pressure in the right spot to the north which it is not ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 when is the last time Islip and Upton had amounts just about 2X that of Newark as of Feb 18th ? ( not including very low snowfall winters) Allan Kasper nailed the 2/8 event days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Allan Kasper nailed the 2/8 event days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Well if anything, u can probably forget an early spring or perhaps even a Morch given the large block expected to develop. The -nao/+pna combo to start march might even yield a late winter snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I guess one of the moderators took it upon themselves to delete my thread that I started about the March 2nd potential storm. Nice. Anyway, the threat is still very evident on the 12z GFS ensemble members and the 12z ECMWF. I had put out a very well thought-out post and thought I started a nice thread. I really don't appreciate that the post was apparently deleted. If this storm does occur, I will expect an apology from the person responsible. I have on many occasions nailed storms from two weeks away, regardless of the fact that many people don't believe it can be done. Anyway, here are the latest ensemble members from the 12z GFS. Notice how many of them produce a significant Nor'easter near us at the same exact time. P002 sure would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I guess one of the moderators took it upon themselves to delete my thread that I started about the March 2nd potential storm. Nice. Anyway, the threat is still very evident on the 12z GFS ensemble members and the 12z ECMWF. I had put out a very well thought-out post and thought I started a nice thread. I really don't appreciate that the post was apparently deleted. If this storm does occur, I will expect an apology from the person responsible. I have on many occasions nailed storms from two weeks away, regardless of the fact that many people don't believe it can be done. Anyway, here are the latest ensemble members from the 12z GFS. Notice how many of them produce a significant Nor'easter near us at the same exact time. P002 sure would be interesting. Examples? You posted a storm thread for something that was/is in the fantasy range for a model with a questionable long-run track record. To not expect ridicule for that is, well, stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 this forum needs a moderator like adam in the philly forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 I guess one of the moderators took it upon themselves to delete my thread that I started about the March 2nd potential storm. Nice. Anyway, the threat is still very evident on the 12z GFS ensemble members and the 12z ECMWF. I had put out a very well thought-out post and thought I started a nice thread. I really don't appreciate that the post was apparently deleted. If this storm does occur, I will expect an apology from the person responsible. I have on many occasions nailed storms from two weeks away, regardless of the fact that many people don't believe it can be done. Anyway, here are the latest ensemble members from the 12z GFS. Notice how many of them produce a significant Nor'easter near us at the same exact time. P002 sure would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 this forum needs a moderator like adam in the philly forum Doug and John are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 if you look at todays Nam 12z, 18z doesnt it look like tommorw's precip is snow? Just curious and I know its the nam. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 if you look at todays Nam 12z, 18z doesnt it look like tommorw's precip is snow? Just curious and I know its the nam. Rossi Looks like it but it's not. Surface temps are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 if you look at todays Nam 12z, 18z doesnt it look like tommorw's precip is snow? Just curious and I know its the nam. Rossi 850's are below freezing but the surface is very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Examples? You posted a storm thread for something that was/is in the fantasy range for a model with a questionable long-run track record. To not expect ridicule for that is, well, stunning. Well, just remember, people thought the world was flat too. Yes, it is possible to predict storms from two weeks out and I have done it many times. People were ridiculed and worse for saying the world is not flat. I kind of see the same mentality here. It is a bit disturbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Well, just remember, people thought the world was flat too. Yes, it is possible to predict storms from two weeks out and I have done it many times. People were ridiculed and worse for saying the world is not flat. I kind of see the same mentality here. It is a bit disturbing. Make a long range thread and post in there. When it gets closer and seems like reality, then make a specific date thread. Your comparison to flat earthers is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The Euro Control run just came out it takes the developing low that is witnessed in the Gulf of Mexico on the operational run at 240 hrs, up the east coast while bombing it out to a 986mb low over Georgia at 258 hrs, to 978mb over North Carolina at 264 hrs, 972mb over NE NC at 270 hrs, 964mb east of the Delmarva at 276 hrs, 960mb about 150 miles east of New Jersey at 280 hrs, while completely pummeling our area. That would be my early March storm. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Make a long range thread and post in there. When it gets closer and seems like reality, then make a specific date thread. Your comparison to flat earthers is ridiculous. Really? I don't think so. Keep an open mind. Just because people say it can't be done, does not mean it can't. Very little would be accomplished in this world if when people said it could not be done, we just did not do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Well, just remember, people thought the world was flat too. Yes, it is possible to predict storms from two weeks out and I have done it many times. People were ridiculed and worse for saying the world is not flat. I kind of see the same mentality here. It is a bit disturbing. When in the past have you done this? Your reference to people who thought the world was flat is entirely non-sensical. No one here is denying a model's capacity to predict future meteorological events. We are (appropriately) questioning the current ability for mathematical modeling to predict with reasonable accuracy a NYC-area coastal storm with snow in early march (perhaps a 1 in 5 year event already) two weeks in advance. Furthermore, you aren't predicting anything. You were using ONE run of the GFS ensembles at a 300+ hr range to claim a "storm threat". Pretty sophomoric... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 When in the past have you done this? Your reference to people who thought the world was flat is entirely non-sensical. No one here is denying a model's capacity to predict future meteorological events. We are (appropriately) questioning the current ability for mathematical modeling to predict with reasonable accuracy a NYC-area coastal storm with snow in early march (perhaps a 1 in 5 year event already) two weeks in advance. Furthermore, you aren't predicting anything. You were using ONE run of the GFS ensembles at a 300+ hr range to claim a "storm threat". Pretty sophomoric... No I was not. I was using the ensemble means of various models, the GFS, the Canadian, and the Control run of the European model, as well as doing my own analysis of the data to come to a conclusion. I did this with Superstorm Sandy, October 29, 2011, December 26, 2010. It is possible to see the big ones from 2 weeks out. It does not always work of course, and I could of course be wrong this time, but I might be right too. This should be place for intellectual discussion, not bashing. Many people can learn here, but they are too busy telling people how things can't be done. Meanwhile, I am doing everything possible to prove them wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 No I was not. I was using the ensemble means of various models, the GFS, the Canadian, and the Control run of the European model, as well as doing my own analysis of the data to come to a conclusion. I did this with Superstorm Sandy, October 29, 2011, December 26, 2010. It is possible to see the big ones from 2 weeks out. It does not always work of course, and I could of course be wrong this time, but I might be right too. This should be place for intellectual discussion, not bashing. Many people can learn here, but they are too busy telling people how things can't be done. Meanwhile, I am doing everything possible to prove them wrong. Hurricane Sandy hadn't even formed 10 days prior to making landfall in NJ, let alone two weeks. The Halloween 2011 storm was seen about a week away by a pretty large consensus of models. Boxing Day was sniffed out initially about a week in advance (obviously it lost it to some extent until late). One week is certainly reasonable for storm prediction. Two weeks gets into the statistical netherlands where pure chance plays as large a role as actual modeling. Also, you know what "control run" means right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Examples? You posted a storm thread for something that was/is in the fantasy range for a model with a questionable long-run track record. To not expect ridicule for that is, well, stunning. So what! I believe the boxing day Blizzard was an example of a storm showing up at that range(GFS)... Should you wear blinkers(blinders) when these maps initialize? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Euro ensembles are pretty going forward . ABC's thread shouldn't have gotten deleted . There is a big signal for a storm around that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Euro ensembles are pretty going forward . ABC's thread shouldn't have gotten deleted . There is a big signal for a storm around that timeframe. can't we just have one thread for all the 8-14 day threats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 can't we just have one thread for all the 8-14 day threats? That would be awesome . We can see how many of then verify . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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