bluewave Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Coastal storm signal on the Euro ensembles near the end of the 6-10 day. We'll have to watch for the potential of heavy rains and strong winds should the low track far enough west near the region. The GFS ensemble mean is also on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Coastal storm signal on the Euro ensembles near the end of the 6-10 day. We'll have to watch for the potential of heavy rains and strong winds should the low track far enough west near the region. The GFS ensemble mean is also on the same page. 12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif 12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS240.gif 12zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif The 18z GFS has this storm has a hybrid system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 if April ends cool like some forecasts I've seen it will end up at least -0.5 for the month...Right now it's around average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 The CFSv2 weeklies don't bring any sustained warmth into the area until the second week of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 50 degrees here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 These threads have gone so dead with the dead-on normal pattern here in April. Not a single post in almost a full 24-hour period except for the almanac update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 These threads have gone so dead with the dead-on normal pattern here in April. Not a single post in almost a full 24-hour period except for the almanac update. Don't forget the bug thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 These threads have gone so dead with the dead-on normal pattern here in April. Not a single post in almost a full 24-hour period except for the almanac update. This weather pattern is boring. I miss winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 16, 2013 Author Share Posted April 16, 2013 These threads have gone so dead with the dead-on normal pattern here in April. Not a single post in almost a full 24-hour period except for the almanac update. Almost all the attention yesterday was in the New England forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 16, 2013 Author Share Posted April 16, 2013 As we get closer to severe season I thought it would be cool to post this video from the 2011 tornado that touched down near Jackson, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Am I seeing this right in some long-term forecasts...no 70 degree days in sight on the island?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Am I seeing this right in some long-term forecasts...no 70 degree days in sight on the island?!? not that shocking ...still mid april and average highs are in the low 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Yeah but I am talking loooong range...like early May! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Yeah but I am talking loooong range...like early May! Yea most likely. Doesn't mean we won't get close to 70. That's what we get for living on an island. At least in the fall when everyone else is freezing, we'll be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threeyoda Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 These threads have gone so dead with the dead-on normal pattern here in April. Not a single post in almost a full 24-hour period except for the almanac update. Considering all that's happened in the last day and a half, that's understandable. Weather wasn't really that important yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 11 years ago at this time we were experiencing a record early heat wave...between the 16th and 19th temps here reached 91, 96, 91 and 91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Meteorologically speaking, early spring is over. Plus this thread is up to 1,726 posts. Maybe time for a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 New Banter Thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40017-spring-in-new-jersey-new-york-and-connecticut-banter-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 246 days until Winter =)http://mycountdown.org/Other/Winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 In 65 days, the angular elevation of the sun will begin to decline and hours of daylight will begin to decrease.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 I can't wait for it to begin getting hot. I'm ready for the thunderstorms too, the last one I witnessed was in December, about a week before Christmas (I think), it's been too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 I've noticed that too how the north shore averages much more precip during the summer months. The ground here on the south shore can get extremely dry. I don't have a rain gauge so I don't keep those records...but I can say just based on simple observation this area around Port Jefferson has been exceptionally wet during the warmer parts of the year relative to much of the rest of the area during most of the 19 years I've lived here. Thunderstorms seem to gravitate to this vicinity with a very high frequency and the only real drought I can recall here was during the summer of 2005...broken by the tremendous rains of October. I have a sprinkler system that broke down in 2007 and there has not even been any need to get it repaired so much rain has fallen here the last 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Is there any reason why Central Park averages more rainfall than nearby stations? Central Park: 49.94" LGA: 44.73" (-5.21") [5 miles away from CP] EWR: 46.25" (-3.69") [11 miles away from CP] JFK: 42.77" (-7.17") [15 miles away from CP] A difference of 7" within the same city is pretty extreme for an east coast city, one would think the average rainfall amounts would be much closer between these stations. Other stations are nowhere near 50 inches: Atlantic City: 41.39" Philadelphia: 41.53" Washington: 39.64" Boston: 43.72" This is something that has intrigued me for a while now. NWS Upton had 50.82" of rain in 2012 and their mean is now almost 49"... http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlyPrecip.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 The exact wettest areas in the NYC metro area are hard to pinpoint because record keeping has gaps and other problems; were I to hazard a guess...I would say the higher elevations in Morris & Passaic counties in New Jersey where the average is probably in the low 50's annually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I don't have a rain gauge so I don't keep those records...but I can say just based on simple observation this area around Port Jefferson has been exceptionally wet during the warmer parts of the year relative to much of the rest of the area during most of the 19 years I've lived here. Thunderstorms seem to gravitate to this vicinity with a very high frequency and the only real drought I can recall here was during the summer of 2005...broken by the tremendous rains of October. I have a sprinkler system that broke down in 2007 and there has not even been any need to get it repaired so much rain has fallen here the last 5 years. The seabreeze front and storms much more often affect your area than ours. There can be something of a mini drought here in the summers when there aren't any larger synoptic scale storms around. The real front doesn't usually become a factor until you''re up around the Southern State Parkway or so. Mineola/Westbury/Garden City have been nailed a few times by these localized seabreeze enhanced storms. You can clearly see the towers going up from down here on the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 it's been 35 years since NYC had a temperature 39 or lower in May...it was 38 on 5/1/1978...it was the third straight may with a temperature in the 30's...1976 has the latest 38 degree day on record...1977 had snow on the 9th with a temperature of 36... decade....# of 30's 1870's.....5 days in 5 years... 1880's.....4 days in 3 years... 1890's.....4 days in 2 years... 1900's.....3 days in 2 years... 1910's.....5 days in 3 years... 1920's.....4 days in 2 years... 1930's.....none... 1940's.....4 days in 2 years... 1950's.....3 days in 2 years... 1960's.....5 days in 3 years... 1970's.....5 days in 4 years... 1980's.....none... 1990's.....none... 2000's.....none... 2010's.....none... I don't expect any 30's this year... 1891, 1923, 1947 and 1963 had three days with temperatures in the 30's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 The seabreeze front and storms much more often affect your area than ours. There can be something of a mini drought here in the summers when there aren't any larger synoptic scale storms around. The real front doesn't usually become a factor until you''re up around the Southern State Parkway or so. Mineola/Westbury/Garden City have been nailed a few times by these localized seabreeze enhanced storms. You can clearly see the towers going up from down here on the shore. Those storms can put down some serious totals in a short period of time. There was one a few years ago that put down some very large hail that damaged a bunch of cars at my old office in New Hyde Park. So you can go from several inches of rain to nothing in a just a couple miles. Overall I would think on average that keeps South Shore a few inches lower for the year. (mid 40s vs 40ish.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 In 65 days, the angular elevation of the sun will begin to decline and hours of daylight will begin to decrease.... Can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Can't wait Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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