Early Spring Banter Thread

[IsentropicLift]

The pattern looks to continue to be cooler than most people would like this time of the year with multiple rain chances. The 12z run of the GFS was very stormy and wet with multiple storms cutting to our west and a trough over the east eventually winning out.

[Cfa]

The pattern looks to continue to be cooler than most people would like this time of the year with multiple rain chances. The 12z run of the GFS was very stormy and wet with multiple storms cutting to our west and a trough over the east eventually winning out.

April showers bring May flowers.

The forecast actually looks average to above average. I hope it stays this way.

[TWCCraig]

GEFS are cold and below avg from D7 on

[Austinwx]

Is there an explanation for the weather models so consistently underestimating the speed of these coastal storms? It seems that you can bank on precipitation moving out 2-3 hours quicker than NWS forecasts indicate the past few years...

[Snow_Miser]

Very misty and disgusting still here with a temp of 42.

Yuck.

[Cfa]

Is there any reason why Central Park averages more rainfall than nearby stations?

Central Park: 49.94"

LGA: 44.73" (-5.21") [5 miles away from CP]

EWR: 46.25" (-3.69") [11 miles away from CP]

JFK: 42.77" (-7.17") [15 miles away from CP]

A difference of 7" within the same city is pretty extreme for an east coast city, one would think the average rainfall amounts would be much closer between these stations.

Other stations are nowhere near 50 inches:

Atlantic City: 41.39"

Philadelphia: 41.53"

Washington: 39.64"

Boston: 43.72"

This is something that has intrigued me for a while now.

[TWCCraig]

Is there any reason why Central Park averages more rainfall than nearby stations?

Central Park: 49.94"

LGA: 44.73" (-5.21") [5 miles away from CP]

EWR: 46.25" (-3.69") [11 miles away from CP]

JFK: 42.77" (-7.17") [15 miles away from CP]

A difference of 7" within the same city is pretty extreme for an east coast city, one would think the average rainfall amounts would be much closer between these stations.

Other stations are nowhere near 50 inches:

Atlantic City: 41.39"

Philadelphia: 41.53"

Washington: 39.64"

Boston: 43.72"

This is something that has intrigued me for a while now.

 

Here are some reasons I have always thought.

 

1. NYC has longer period of record than EWR, JFK, and LGA

2. NYC has less stable marine air influence than JFK and LGA during the spring and summer months, so NYC will do better in thunderstorm season (also why EWR isn't that far off from NYC)

3. Natural Variation 

[BxEngine]

NYC. Cpk is in va.

[tim]

...just had to click the heat back on!

thought i was done with that..

[doncat]

Is there any reason why Central Park averages more rainfall than nearby stations?Central Park: 49.94"LGA: 44.73" (-5.21") [5 miles away from CP]EWR: 46.25" (-3.69") [11 miles away from CP]JFK: 42.77" (-7.17") [15 miles away from CP]A difference of 7" within the same city is pretty extreme for an east coast city, one would think the average rainfall amounts would be much closer between these stations.Other stations are nowhere near 50 inches:Atlantic City: 41.39"Philadelphia: 41.53"Washington: 39.64"Boston: 43.72"This is something that has intrigued me for a while now.

My station here on Staten Island averages 48.20 inches.., thats for the period from 1981 to present.

[nzucker]

...just had to click the heat back on!

thought i was done with that..

We've had it on all day here...high was only 45F at Westchester Airport, and we spent the majority of the day around 42-43F, which cools down the house quickly. 

[Shades]

Completely overcast in the NY metro after some rays of sun this morning. A deck of Stratocumulus and some sprinkles/light showers putting a dent in the otherwise sunny forecast that was expected today. If the clouds don't break, I think a lot of people will feel put down by the forecast especially considering it's the weekend... it'll be hard-pressed to approach 60. Visible satellite has instability Cu popping up and spreading out over much of the northeast. Shortwaves rippling around an upperlow over Ontario in early Spring is rarely a precursor to pleasant weather... would be nice to at least have the sun out. Even though it's near 50 at the time, it's rather brisk with a hint of a windchill.

[TWCCraig]

If you live on the north shore of LI or north than that, you have a chance to see the northern lights on the northern horizon tonight.

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Here are some reasons I have always thought.

 

1. NYC has longer period of record than EWR, JFK, and LGA

2. NYC has less stable marine air influence than JFK and LGA during the spring and summer months, so NYC will do better in thunderstorm season (also why EWR isn't that far off from NYC)

3. Natural Variatio

 

Solid idea about the summer thunderstorm issue though LGA does well too. Its amazing how much more rain there is in summer north of the Southern State. There was a drought on the South Shore during the late 90's where it didnt rain a drop during August South of the Southern State. Many old growth (several hundred years old) Tulip trees in my town (a whole grove) died that summer

 

Its also possible the heat island could also act to increase precip as warmer air holds more moisture.

[TWCCraig]

Solid idea about the summer thunderstorm issue though LGA does well too. Its amazing how much more rain there is in summer north of the Southern State. There was a drought on the South Shore during the late 90's where it didnt rain a drop during August South of the Southern State. Many old growth (several hundred years old) Tulip trees in my town (a whole grove) died that summer

 

Its also possible the heat island could also act to increase precip as warmer air holds more moisture.

 

I have a giant tulip tree IMBY. Planted in the 1930's, it has survived it all. I've noticed that too how the north shore averages much more precip during the summer months. The ground here on the south shore can get extremely dry. In August of 2005, KISP only had 0.05" for the entire month while places on the north shore had 0.5 - 2" for a month total.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I have a giant tulip tree IMBY. Planted in the 1930's, it has survived it all. I've noticed that too how the north shore averages much more precip during the summer months. The ground here on the south shore can get extremely dry. In August of 2005, KISP only had 0.05" for the entire month while places on the north shore had 0.5 - 2" for a month total.

 

If youre into trees go see the queens giant some time. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queens_Giant  Worth the hike for sure.

[Santa Claus]

A cool but pleasant day.  Several days of sun and mild temperatures in front of us, which, coupled with the healthy dose of precip we've received over the last few days, should result in some nice leafing and blooming.

[Stormlover74]

Completely overcast in the NY metro after some rays of sun this morning. A deck of Stratocumulus and some sprinkles/light showers putting a dent in the otherwise sunny forecast that was expected today. If the clouds don't break, I think a lot of people will feel put down by the forecast especially considering it's the weekend... it'll be hard-pressed to approach 60. Visible satellite has instability Cu popping up and spreading out over much of the northeast. Shortwaves rippling around an upperlow over Ontario in early Spring is rarely a precursor to pleasant weather... would be nice to at least have the sun out. Even though it's near 50 at the time, it's rather brisk with a hint of a windchill.

Gotta give it time. Alot of sun now and temps have warmed into the mid and upper 50s especially west and south of NYC

[RutgersWx92]

Would be awesome to see the Northern Lights tonight; Accuweather has us in "good" viewing conditions, though it is Accuweather so needs to be taken with a grain of salt, especially in areas with light pollution.  Best chance appears to be at about 8 pm.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/dazzling_northern_lights_antic_1/10107004

[TWCCraig]

Would be awesome to see the Northern Lights tonight; Accuweather has us in "good" viewing conditions, though it is Accuweather so needs to be taken with a grain of salt, especially in areas with light pollution.  Best chance appears to be at about 8 pm.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/dazzling_northern_lights_antic_1/10107004

 

I posted the current map of the auroras and the forecast up a few posts. Good luck to everyone looking for them.

[nzucker]

Coolish day here, high of 56.6F, down to 54.6/39 with light north winds. 

 

Made it down to 37.6F last night, expecting upper 30s again tonight. 

[RutgersWx92]

I posted the current map of the auroras and the forecast up a few posts. Good luck to everyone looking for them.

Apparently the Kp forecasts are only for a max of 6 which is less than the high-end 7 to 8 that we need to really see it.  So I'm not too optimistic unfortunately.

[bluewave]

That's a really impressive temperature contrast that the models are advertising for this week.

 

 

 

 

[TWCCraig]

Made it to 61.6 degrees briefly earlier today. NWS pretty bullish on the temps tomorrow. No models show 60 degree temps tomorrow, especially with -4C 850's. However, a NW wind will help us tomorrow.

[TWCCraig]

FWIW, the GFS still has snow threats. 0z run had a decent event around the 26th.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

FWIW, the GFS still has snow threats. 0z run had a decent event around the 26th.

You don't really interpret these as snow threats do you? Please. The surface temperatures would be, that's would be if these map depictions even come to pass, in the 40s and 50s and it is more likely, that these map depictions won't come to pass.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

You don't really interpret these as snow threats do you? Please. The surface temperatures would be, that's would be if these map depictions even come to pass, in the 40s and 50s and it is more likely, that these map depictions won't come to pass.

WX/PT

Though it could be a cool and wet 2-3 week period, but the models keep jumping back and forth between cool/wet for that time and very warm to hot with a nice Bermuda high set up, but right now, most of the models now signaling cool/wet.

WX/PT

[TWCCraig]

You don't really interpret these as snow threats do you? Please. The surface temperatures would be, that's would be if these map depictions even come to pass, in the 40s and 50s and it is more likely, that these map depictions won't come to pass.

WX/PT

 

No not really. Just stating what the model shows. 0z had some precip on a inverted trough with 850's at minus 4. I honestly could care less about this "snow threat", because it's most likely going to happen.

[Rjay]

No not really. Just stating what the model shows. 0z had some precip on a inverted trough with 850's at minus 4. I honestly could care less about this "snow threat", because it's most likely going to happen.

i doubt with the 850s at minus 4 in late april would yield snow

[TWCCraig]

i doubt with the 850s at minus 4 in late april would yield snow

 

If the precip were heavy enough and 2mT's are favorable, it's possible, but I still doubt it and I'm just stating what the model was showing. I honestly don't want so, I just sunshine and warmth.