Weathergun Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Where's that storm at sea dude who was laughing at us all for predicting the possibility of snow 7 days out given the blocking and AO? #climo It's nice to see meteorology (pattern recognition) beat climatology, for once. So the climo die-hards, will get off their high-horse. Point here, is that there other factors other than climo, that should be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 The NAM performed best once inside 48 with the eventual timing & track of this system. GFS as of yesterday was farther northwest and slower. The NW winds, clearing skies and relatively warm 850temps ahead of the front today should set up a warm one. EWR should hit 60. Would have been another rather painful near miss if we had had a legit cold airmass to work with. The 00z Euro wasn't terrible going forward either. Plenty of days in the 50's, around seasonable fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 #climo I'm from the area, that actually is climo. In the lower Shenandoah Valley (elev 1500-2500ft) and the New River Valley (where Blacksburg is, elev 2500-3500 ft), April snow is probably a once-every-two-years occurrence in the Shen Valley and yearly for the NRV. Both areas received accumulating snow last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 The NAM performed best once inside 48 with the eventual timing & track of this system. GFS as of yesterday was farther northwest and slower. The NW winds, clearing skies and relatively warm 850temps ahead of the front today should set up a warm one. EWR should hit 60. That's pretty much near normal for this time of year, suburbs going to freezing or colder tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 That's pretty much near normal for this time of year, suburbs going to freezing or colder tonight? My forecast low is 31F. Should get another freeze. We've already had three this April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 60 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 The Euro keeps the warmth well south of us and is back to a more amplified solution with long wave trough over the deep south in the long range. End result is a boat load of rain for the area and average to below average temps. The 12z GGEM is in nearly identical agreement with the storm threat for the following weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 65 degrees now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Beautiful day out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 The Euro keeps the warmth well south of us and is back to a more amplified solution with long wave trough over the deep south in the long range. End result is a boat load of rain for the area and average to below average temps. The 12z GGEM is in nearly identical agreement with the storm threat for the following weekend. The warmth is already here. Widespread mid 60's throughout the area currently. Expecting average highs in the 65-70 nyc , 70-75 range in interior sections of NJ starting Sunday and continuing for most of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 The warmth is already here. Widespread mid 60's throughout the area currently. Expecting average highs in the 65-70 nyc , 70-75 range in interior sections of NJ starting Sunday and continuing for most of the week The Euro only has highs in the 40's-lower 50's for Saturday, Upper 50's to low 60's for Sunday, 60's and 70's for Monday and Tuesday before the back door cold front arrives by mid Week. Highs on Thursday may struggle to break 40 if the Euro is correct. Temps then slowly moderate as the long wave trough approaches from the west and we get back into the Southwest flow. The Euro actually has some moderate precip over the area Thursday morning with the 850 freezing line south of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 The Euro only has highs in the 40's-lower 50's for Saturday, Upper 50's to low 60's for Sunday, 60's and 70's for Monday and Tuesday before the back door cold front arrives by mid Week. Highs on Thursday may struggle to break 40 if the Euro is correct. did the euro show mid 60s for today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 The Euro only has highs in the 40's-lower 50's for Saturday, Upper 50's to low 60's for Sunday, 60's and 70's for Monday and Tuesday before the back door cold front arrives by mid Week. Highs on Thursday may struggle to break 40 if the Euro is correct. Temps then slowly moderate as the long wave trough approaches from the west and we get back into the Southwest flow. The Euro actually has some moderate precip over the area Thursday morning with the 850 freezing line south of Philly. There's a slight chance of snow with the backdoor cold front on Wednesday and Thursday. Surface temperatures are in the 30s for NYC and New England. Could be the last flakes of the season and will be a dramatic change from the warmth Tuesday ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 did the euro show mid 60s for today? It had upper 50's to near 60 today for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Nicest day of the season here for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 There's a slight chance of snow with the backdoor cold front on Wednesday and Thursday. Surface temperatures are in the 30s for NYC and New England. Could be the last flakes of the season and will be a dramatic change from the warmth Tuesday ahead of the front. The Euro actually has some snow. I can't remember the last time that we saw snow along a back door boundary after an April warm up. The ensemble mean looks more realistic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 The Euro actually has some snow. I can't remember the last time that we saw snow along a back door boundary after an April warm up. I can't imagine snow from a backdoor cold front as the 12z Euro shows. Synoptic recognition tells us that probably won't happen but it will definitely be chilly with easterly and northeasterly flow. Calls for a warm April are in trouble unless we get a huge ridge after Tax Day which is possible with a rising NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 It had upper 50's to near 60 today for most of the area. So then I'm adding 5 degrees to it for tomorrow and Sunday (Upton is as well going mid 50s Sat. and mid to upper 60s for Sunday for me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 So then I'm adding 5 degrees to it for tomorrow and Sunday (Upton is as well going mid 50s Sat. and mid to upper 60s for Sunday for me) Tomorrow won't be that warm....certainly not as mIld as today. There's a cold front coming through that brings down -10C 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 I can't imagine snow from a backdoor cold front as the 12z Euro shows. Synoptic recognition tells us that probably won't happen but it will definitely be chilly with easterly and northeasterly flow. Calls for a warm April are in trouble unless we get a huge ridge after Tax Day which is possible with a rising NAO. Yeah, the ensemble mean looks closer to climo with back door fronts here in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 62.1°F here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Tomorrow won't be that warm....certainly not as mIld as today. There's a cold front coming through that brings down -10C 850s. as today? no of course not but I highly doubt I get stuck in the 40s. I'm sure I'll see 55 or 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 The Euro only has highs in the 40's-lower 50's for Saturday, Upper 50's to low 60's for Sunday, 60's and 70's for Monday and Tuesday before the back door cold front arrives by mid Week. Again, this is highly dependent on location so you can't throw out statements like this for the whole area. It's much warmer over locations like Western NJ and just south of my area as well. The new NAM (which owned the Euro with todays temperatures) still has 65 F highs over New Jersey on Sunday. And it's just as warm on Monday as well, away from the coast. Look at the strong seabreeze developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 The Canadian has a small area of 26 C 850 temperatures over Central NJ on Thursday. That's almost 80 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Again, this is highly dependent on location so you can't throw out statements like this for the whole area. It's much warmer over locations like Western NJ and just south of my area as well. The new NAM (which owned the Euro with todays temperatures) still has 65 F highs over New Jersey on Sunday. And it's just as warm on Monday as well, away from the coast. Look at the strong seabreeze developing. The funny thing about the NAM is that is really good with highs during warm days but has been overdone on the overnight cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 The funny thing about the NAM is that is really good with highs during warm days but has been overdone on the overnight cold. It schooled every model with todays temperatures...but like you said it's been really struggling overnight. That gradient on Monday is insane...would be pretty cool to see parts of NJ in the 70's while the shore is in the upper 30's with low fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 And the 18z GFS looks beautiful for next week. Should be noted that there is still a BDCF signal later in the run, but it's much much weaker than the BDCF signal on the Euro, and doesn't even get the 10 C 850s south of NYC with the BDCF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 GFS has a huge ridge spiking into the northeast and SE canada, while the euro has a huge PV feature. This is all short-medium range crazy differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Where's that storm at sea dude who was laughing at us all for predicting the possibility of snow 7 days out given the blocking and AO? #climo And phlwx was also not exactly lauding the predictions, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 As a lot of us have said, even assuming that the Euro has the correct idea with the pattern from Wednesday and on, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday look like great days for most of the area. Yesterday's 12z Euro was IMO overdone with making Tuesday a cold day. The shores will have their seabreeze concerns, though. Monday might have early highs for some, but be much colder at 4-5 p.m. than the 2 p.m. temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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