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Early Spring Banter Thread


IsentropicLift

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I played hooky from work that day...the storm was a quick hitter...10 hours or so and started as sleet briefly by me...it was the largest snowstorm from 1970 to 1977...

Loved Gordon Barnes..remember he would use a flashlight on channel 2 to show you the path of the storm..I used to tell my parents it was going to snow, they would say... What does Gordon Barnes say lol

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Noticed today that the NWS statements today have said things like (paraphrasing) '2-5 inches but low probability of 4-8 in bands'  (since downgraded to '1-2 inches with low probability of 3-4 on the east end')

 

While these statements often say things like 'locally higher amounts on the east end'  the phrasing today where it gave specific ranges, and even talked about banding (something I think of as a bit of inside baseball) struck me as unusual.  Not in a bad way -- I think it makes sense -- but still, not typical.  Thoughts?

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Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13
As of 14 February 2013 / 11:00 PM ET

Bridgeport: 51.2"
NWS Upton: 41.1"
Islip: 37.7"

Newark: 20.7"

NYC Central Park: 18.8"
LaGuardia: 16.1"
JFK: 13.2"

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Looks like winter in the east may be coming to an end sooner then later - so if we are going to end it with a big storm it has to be soon

we are currently in MJO phase 3

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

and according to this research paper after the MJO enters phase 3 the temps warm up in the east within 5 - 20 days

http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~sbaxter/baxter_report_mjo.pdf

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thank God for the Feb. 8-9th storm...it salvaged the winter....NYC has a short 18.8" so far...16.1" for the Feb and Nov storms...still short of the average...there is still time for another big event but not tomorrow...

Yeah, at least Feb has been exciting for tracking for the storms that did or did not occur. So unlike last year.

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its hilarious how DT goes into hiding once his forecasts start to bust - hasn't made a post in 22 hours - probably trying to figure out how to say he was wrong and put his usual spin on things - BTW he made a big deal out of how he was certain there would be a big east coast snowstorm later this week

 

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk

I think you were quite convinced until the last few model runs that the blizzard was not Going to happen,along with most of us here, weenies and mets. Long Range predictions as you know, are difficult. Any difference between Dt and other mets?
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its hilarious how DT goes into hiding once his forecasts start to bust - hasn't made a post in 22 hours - probably trying to figure out how to say he was wrong and put his usual spin on things - BTW he made a big deal out of how he was certain there would be a big east coast snowstorm later this week

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39159-friday-february-8th-storm-potential/#entry2068327

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39159-friday-february-8th-storm-potential/#entry2068410

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39159-friday-february-8th-storm-potential/#entry2068116

(My personal favorite)

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39159-friday-february-8th-storm-potential/#entry2068087

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39159-friday-february-8th-storm-potential/page-8#entry2073198

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39159-friday-february-8th-storm-potential/page-8#entry2073245

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39159-friday-february-8th-storm-potential/page-9#entry2073436

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39211-friday-storm-banter/#entry2077178

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39211-friday-storm-banter/#entry2078539

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39252-blizzard-of-2013-forecast-discussion-part-ii/page-15#entry2099160

And then these two posts read together, just for the lolz:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39108-february-2-3-potential-super-bowl-storm-discussion/page-6#entry2061633

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39347-febuary-22-24/page-5#entry2130696

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I think you were quite convinced until the last few model runs that the blizzard was not Going to happen,along with most of us here, weenies and mets. Long Range predictions as you know, are difficult. Any difference between Dt and other mets?

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the storm wasn't happening for us. Eastern LI got up to a few inches of snow but otherwise the dynamics and cyclogenesis got going too late, and then the progressive overall pattern that's been screwing us since Day One this winter did the rest and pushed it out to sea. Had it not been very good luck with the November storm and the storm a week ago, we would have a very bland winter. Unfortunately, this will likely be the norm in the -PDO regime we've entered unless we have periods of blocking or a rare El Nino. Roaring Pacific jet, frequent SE ridge, northern stream dominated storms that cut too early and favor the Midwest, or blow up too late and favor New England. On the bright side, more hurricanes!! :axe:

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